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Ed
Seykota's FAQ
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Epidemic
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| FAQ November
01-30,
2023 <== back | down | forward ==> |
| Contributors Say | Ed Says | |||
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| November
7, 2023 Wants a Stake Hi Ed, I’m working on examining my life of dopamine centric behaviors. I have an edge I have back tasted with all the future contracts I can think of and and I am confident that it works (with proper risk management and position sizing). I’m going to work on my deep seated beliefs and experiences that are affecting my life and trading through breath work, timeline regression, and hypnotherapy with a professional. I found professional for all three near me. I plan to paper trade for a little while and start trading after that. Would you be willing to stake me my new starting trading capital so I have a decent starting capital? You don’t know me, so if this is too much to ask and you don’t respond to this message, I will totally understand. There is no Trading Tribe group in Portland. I reached out to a tribe leader in Portland (from your website), but he has moved out of the state and he did not know of any other Trading Tribe groups in Portland. |
Thank
you for asking for a stake. You might consider providing me with some additional information: 1. Evidence of your succeeding at something. 2. Your track record from trading - or a proxy from a firm that hosts dry trading. 3. A back test of your trading system that matches your actual trading. 4. Personal references.
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| November
6, 2023 Itching to Learn Dear Ed, thank you for responding to my message. The specific goals I have in mind when asking you for the opportunity to spend time around you are: 1) Improve my ability and knowledge as a market participant. 2) Continue the process of self-discovery that is going on my whole life but got much more intense as I got a skin disease that sometimes makes my face scratch. I am generally in good shape, work as an intern at a German Investment Fund and ran Triathlons and Marathons the last years so I do not consult you as a doctor. But I sense that the origin of my disequlibrium lies in the intellectual sphere and can not, as I tried often, be cured with conventional drugs and treatment. I also know that I have inside of me what a Budhist may call the Seed of Addiction and/or self-destruction. I want to learn more about that. 3) Inspire my father. He started being interested in markets some 30 years ago. He got hand on the Market Wizard books and Reminiscences ... and all the good books by himself. I had the fortune to start my market "career" with all the right ressources. You are one of his great inspirations but his set of believes limit him from accepting that he too should already have been visiting you. He and I also went to the Tribe meeting in Berlin. I went again for all the following meetings except one. He did not and never actually sat on the hot chair despite refering to you and your knowledge for many years. There is something in him that holds a lot back and I have a desire to push him beyond that, at least once. I look forward to hearing from you. I am happy for every opportunity to learn and grow. All the best from Hamburg, |
Thank
you for reaching out to me. 1. I wonder specifically how you wish to participate in the markets. 2. I wonder what skin disease you have and how you might express the itching feeling by acting out its form. 3. I wonder if you communicate openly and deeply with your father about these matters, including your desire to fix him. You might consider taking all these issues to Tribe as an entry point. You might consider listening to this song.
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| November
5, 2023 Podcast Thank you Ed, I heard you on a podcast talking about your last book and it led me to your site. Super interesting concepts. Thank you for all you do. |
Thank
you for acknowledging me and the work. From now and again I consider hosting a podcast - somewhat along the lines of FAQ. |
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| November
5, 2023 TTP and Depression Ed, Per our recent conversation, I send you some correspondence from 2009, about a woman with "severe depression." Sep 11, 2009 From Control to Intimacy I think for several days about the “pacing” that you showed me at your home and wonder if I am able to use it. A patient with a so-called “severe depression” consults me. To me, she just forgot how to play. But I wonder what a psychiatrist would think about my diagnosis. She returns after a first consultation, saying that I am somehow different to all psychologists she knows: I am the first person in front of whom she could cry, in many years. Then, I do…what do I do? I don't know. I am just there, sharing the moment with her, leading some times, letting her lead some other times. I wonder about the effects of receiving her feelings on her “depression”. I plan to report about it. Tuesday, November 10, 2009 Letting Go and Getting Results Ed, On Friday, September 11, 2009 “From Control to Intimacy” I reported about a “patient” with a “severe depression”. One of her main issues is “abandon/rejection”. For her, the feeling is so intolerable that, as her husband tells her that he is thinking about leaving her, she attempts twice to commit suicide. She receives psychotherapy and antidepressants; due to her alcoholism, her marriage is ruined. Her still-husband has a new girlfriend and is moving in with her in some weeks. A colleague mentions “with her history, she is beyond any help”. Psychologist would try to build up her resources and to teach her how to live with the loss. She is willing to work, but she is terrified of experiencing her feelings, feelings which once brought her to the brink of death. During the first two meetings she shows a signature form; while she makes some progress, she still does not reach the zero point. At the third meeting, after testing willingness, I pace her for about one hour. I share her signature form; sometimes I lead, sometimes I follow her. She can enjoy “abandon / rejection”, although the form is not completely resolved. I see her again after two weeks. Her marital situation has not changed, but lo and behold!, during a visit to her brother she meets, after some 20 years, an old boyfriend. He tells her that he never forgot her, that he is still in love with her, and invites her to spend a week with him. During the week he overwhelms her with demonstration of affection and love, which she did not receive for years. As she resolves her issue, the “cure” suddenly appears out of nowhere. This “therapeutic approach” is not described in conventional psychology books (rather in sorcery tractates). |
Thank
you for sending me the correspondence. |
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| November
5, 2023 Catching Up Hi Ed, Thanks for reviewing my trades for me! My trading activities now are far less than the time when I send you the charts after I start to wait for confirmation (or at least very late, in second session before market close). The concern I had before is when waiting for confirmation, the market might have been advanced large amount and if I set the stop at the low of the day, it would be 2-3% of the account and I can't make the trade. I am seeing that, waiting for close is already filtering out quite a lot of false/failed signals and save me from whipsaws. I had a lot of such false signal whipsaws back in August and September. I am also now limit to trade only one market in each industry group (or correlation group). I find the precious metals, financials, petroleum's often move together and now I only trade one of them each day and spacing out the risk. I am testing this now. My current margin to equity is under 20% in peso, sugar the coca. I find it does well with low margin to equity ratio. I learned my lesson. Thanks! I agree with you that I have emotion of wanting to catch up on my wealth building. I'm working on redirecting the desire on catching up on backtesting and build fund instead of press too much on the gas pedal on my own money. My wife seems also realize this now. A while ago she wanted me to triple my account by end of this year now she changes to ask me to keep whatever I have left. :) Cheers, |
Thank
you for sharing your process.
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| November
5, 2023 Trading System Project Extension: Further Research on Cntinuous Contracts Hi Ed, Hope this email finds you well. Hereby I attach another TSP Report, I call it “Further Research on Continuous Contract”. The purpose of this research is to conduct further examination of the details of continuous contracts and verify the hunch you post on your website: “My hunch is that the method of making a continuous contract is not very important.” It would be my great honor if this study would bring some inspiration( or joy) to others who visit your website. I am glad that I contribute to the TSP project while I learn something, again. Thanks. |
Thank
you for sending me your research. |
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| November
5, 2023 Skin Resistance Monitor Ed, Following up on our discussion about "auditing" to help clear issues. This low-cost skin-resistance monitor might help Tribe Members locate issues; |
Thank
you for sending me the link. |
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| November
4, 2023 Wants More Help See Previous: Wants Help, October 11, 2023 Thank you Ed, I believe it got it to work now, my equity log is attached and it matches yours I'm using the slow and fast averaging times below. Once I get the program working what do I do next, do I plot the points on the graph? How do I enter futures long trades with this program. I appreciate all of your help and have a great day, |
Thank
you for asking for more help. I don't see any report on your investigating your feelings of <helplessness>. You might also consider taking your feelings about <following instructions> to Tribe as an entry point. |
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| November
1, 2023 Consistency of Optimal Parameters Ed, I have made progress on the previous list of steps. I have completed and attached the study to determine if micro contracts track the mini contracts close enough to optimize on the mini and trade the micros I have completed and attached a study to see how to determine robust optimal parameters. Can you please open and review the attached studies and provide your feedback regarding their correctness and what steps I might consider adding or removing? I appreciate that this is a big ask of you but I'm trying to learn how to receive tutelage from you so that I can also one day say that I'm a profitable trend follow trader and I hope by sharing these studies you can see I'm putting in the work and earnestly trying to receive tutelage. I understand that sharing information with FAQ community is important to you and sending everything in these documents might make it hard to post it in FAQ but tracking everything only in emails would be hard on my end so I can gladly work on a summary email when everything is done that can be easily posted to FAQ. On another note I noticed during the "How to determine if Optimized back test parameters are consistent through time" study. When traders ask you if it's appropriate to change system parameters over time your response usually points to no, that a trend following systems approach already changes in of itself like a EMA or Donchian Channel changing as the underlying data into the function changes. But then I noticed the below scenario. I was compiling the optimal trend and trade periods for a double support and resistance system on a yearly basis for the British pound. Between the year 1990 and 2000 a 2 period trade channel would work well. But then after the year 2000 the way the market moved changed ... larger periods required for the trade channel. How do I reconcile this? My instinct tells me to update the period parameters over time but those before me who have achieved success in trend following say don't? What am I not seeing? Again Ed says we all get what we want from the markets and I want $5400 a month in realized profits every month. Thank you |
Thank
you for raising this issue. Computation of optimal parameters presupposes a specific testing interval and a specific system. Optimizing over a different interval, likely indicates different optimal values. Theoretically, you could create a master system that includes algorithms for periodically optimizing parameters in other sub-systems. You might then notice that the master system also has optimal parameters - that also vary between intervals. In general, you can do better sticking to a pretty-good system than you can tinkering around with it to medicate feelings about uncertainty. You might consider taking your feelings about <uncertainty> to Tribe as an entry point. In general, you get what you want, not necessarily what you say you want.
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