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Ed
Seykota's FAQ
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Epidemic
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| FAQ October 01-31,
2021 <== back | down | forward ==> |
| Contributors Say | Ed Says | |||
| October 29, 2021 Volume and Price Good morning Ed, Hope this message finds you well. Can you please help me with the questions? What is the relationship between volume and price In trading stocks? When a stock volume % chg shows low percentage such as 0% to 5% in the day, does it mean the stock has a good absorption rate? Thank you in advance for your help! |
Thank you for raising this issue. I do not know of any trading systems that implement volume as a adjunct to trend identification. |
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| October
29, 2021 8 Predictions Dear Friend, congratulations for experimenting, finding and committing to a healthy diet (diaita, "way of life"). It occurs to me that people in your FAQ are reporting an increasing number of Govopoly-type of accidents as originally suggested by you in the ever-green book. I am picking up my jaw from the floor as I re-watch the short video below, produced in 2016 and titled 8 predictions for the world in 2030, where the World Economic Forum says they "asked experts from our Global Councils for their take on the world in 2030" (cit). The first seven seconds are priceless and I feel they represent the artistic footprint of the Govopoly climax. I notice the opener is set on "You 'll own nothing" rather than "We", validating the dramatic split in the Assets ownership. Please find below an explanation (I feel puzzled) by one of the Council members as she seeks to clarify the opening statement: “I don't own anything. I don't own a car. I don't own a house. I don't own any appliances or any clothes,” writes Danish MP Ida Auken. Shopping is a distant memory in the city of 2030, whose inhabitants have cracked clean energy and borrow what they need on demand. It sounds Utopian, until she mentions that her every move is tracked and outside the city live swathes of discontents, the ultimate depiction of a society split in two. |
Thank
you for sharing your perceptions.
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| October
27, 2021 Wants an Open Channel Ed, I have a very interesting and unique background I'd love to share, culminating in a question I hope you will be so kind as to answer. I built a most unusual career in the special events business over the last two decades. I started off as a sound tech and toured with some bands and produced music for years before shifting to corporate events. I enjoyed a very colorful and successful career as an Audio Technician, Video Technician, and eventually as a project manager, managing the overall AV setup for large corporate conventions, conferences and meetings. I've worked with several past Presidents, the Pope, a number of touring musicians, CEO's of a full variety of some of the largest corporations in the country. My overwhelming ambition to push further led me to business school and in 2015 I completed my MBA at The University of Maryland. I went from the technical side of the industry to the business side and for the next 5 years, managed accounts and worked on the business development side of the Meetings and Events industry. At the beginning of 2020 my industry was crushed by the country's response to the Covid outbreak and my company laid off 90% of its workforce, myself included. Obviously an industry built around large gatherings was annihilated and what was once a $10 Billion dollar part of the travel and tourism space was reduced to hanging on by a thread. The vulnerability of my industry became clear and the illusion of "job security" unraveled. Volatility is a very real and present part of life and I am eternally grateful to the universe for exposing this fact before I was an old man, numbed by the comfort of a corporate pittanance and the illusion of job security. With this new found realization, I obviously needed to pivot. I needed a new path which provided autonomy and self-employment. I would say that I needed a new path which gave me "control over my own life" but as a Buddhist I don't believe we actually control much. Perhaps we can control our emotional response to our experiences, but like the universe so appropriately revealed over the last year and half, security, control, and the like are all illusions. With a lifetime interest in finance, I discovered a fantastic passion for trading and began studying the markets. Specifically, I started watching the commodities, and index futures markets. Like you, I was fascinated by the puzzle and have a love for data so I built some excel data models and started studying different systems. With very limited capital and the need to generate some stream of income, I first stumbled upon a scalping system. Of course I initially blew my 401k through scalping because of the obvious--my R:R was stacked against me. I had to take on losses that matched and often exceeded potential returns. While I had a breakout signal that resulted in 70%+ win probabilities, I found heavy losing streaks very hard to recover from since I was risking so much on each trade. Armed with persistence, I dug deeper. Thanks to Michael Covel and the story of the Turtle Traders, I discovered the logic of Trend Following. I read all about you, read a few more of Michael Covel's books, started reading Van Tharp, Jerry Parker and Larry Hite. I get the basic premise, which is simple and straightforward, and have totally bought into the underlying philosophy of Trend Trading. As the CFM study reveals, there are 200 years of supporting data on the long term effectiveness of TT. I have committed myself to modeling and developing a Trend Following system and feel like I am getting closer every day....I am optimistic and determined and know with high level certainty that I will be able to develop a system which provides me with a level of financial freedom I could never obtain working for another man's company! I have some challenges that I am working through and I am hopeful that you and I can develop an open channel of communication so I can bounce some thoughts off of you (more on that in a second). But I want to start off with a big picture question: I am driven to be great!! I don't want to just be an adequate trader. There are many adequate traders out there and there are plenty of short-term bubbles to ride. But I want to be great at this, which is why I am reaching out to you, Sir! You are one of the GREATS! And my question is, how did you accomplish that? What piece of advice would you give a man who wants to achieve greatness and longevity in trading? What separates you from so many other traders? It can't be "work hard" right? I mean the world is full of hard workers. I was in the military when I was younger and no one worked hard than a motivated Marine! Grunts would spend an entire day and an unfathomable amount of energy pushing a rock uphill before a smart engineer would figure out how to use a machine to get that rock uphill in half the time with a fraction of the effort!! I have heard you speak, and I know you are highly intelligent--but I have met some incredibly intelligent poor people! Like Napoleon Hill talks about in "Think and Grow Rich", it seems knowledge, when not applied nor focused in a specialized way, can be quite useless. Ed, what do I need to know to be GREAT at this? Lastly, I wanted to circle back to my mention of an open channel of communication. One thing that has worked for me in the past has been connecting with and associating with successful people. I want to build an open channel of communication with you, sir! And I don't believe anything worthwhile is free! I have a very broad base of knowledge and skills and would be happy to exchange these for your time and expertise. Want to plan an event? I can help with that. Need some AV support for a conference or bluegrass concert? I can help with that. Planning on recording a new song (Love the Whipsaw song, by the way)? I can likely help with that. I would be thrilled to exchange my knowledge for some of yours...So please consider chatting with me! Your mentorship will be appreciated and utilized, the value of which I can only hope I will be able to repay with return value!!! Thanks so much for your consideration Ed! This is truly a win-win for me, because at the very least I am grateful to be able to include myself among the "Tribes" of traders you have brought together with your knowledge and leadership. In the meantime, have a great week and I will most certainly look forward to connecting with you soon. Most Sincerely, |
Thank
you for reaching out to me and for offering to share your knowledge and
experience with audio production. Per your question about the origins of success, you might also consider the importance of luck. Per you request for an open channel, you have it here on FAQ. You might consider proceeding by formulating some questions that focus on your concerns. |
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| October
26, 2021 A Lot of Views Dear Ed, What an honor to have received a reply from you. Thank you. Ps. I listen to your Whipsaw Song almost daily, and just shared it with my British trading coach in context of my style, in case it start popping up in circles and getting a lot of views... I hope that’s ok. Yours Always, |
Thank
you for sharing your process - and for your concern about views popping
up. The Whipsaw Song (April 8, 2008) currently has about 1/3 of a million views on YouTube, about 4,000 more on Vimeo and some on other channels as well. Not bad for a wanna-be banjo picker and a pick-up band. By the way, I notice the guy doing the singing on the video has a lot more hair than I do. |
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| October
26, 2021 Day Trading Crypto Currencies Good Morning Mr Ed, let me introduce myself, i am an indipendent trader from south Italy. i started being profitable after reading books on trend following and your advice on trading psychology has been so so important for me, practically a life changer. since when i started systematically and mechanically applying trend following principles, i am 300% up in only one year of trading cryptocurrencies futures. The system is very simple, Donchian 20-20 always in the market with ATR position sizing, everything automated, so that no human intervention, and total exposure is of 12.5% in 25 futures, so 0.5% risk per trade. Win rate of around 30% and winners around 3 times bigger than losers on average. i want to share some feelings that came up these last days. <Wanting to change system often> i feel an itch to change system and parameters from time to time... and my last drawdown of 50% from 600% up to 300% up is related to missing some big opportunities <Doubts about time frame> I read everywhere that trend following is DAILY... but from back testing and live testing, i found out that 4H yields much much bigger results, at the expense of some bigger volatility in equity.... i want to try Daily.... but my tests always tell me that 4H is better.... more trends with lower ATRs, bigger positions for better profit.... <Doubts about portfolio> my back tests were made always with single asset portfolio... the results are ridicolously GREAT with every single asset tested.... with live trading with multi asset portfolio - 25 futures x 0.5% risk, my account grows, but these very last days i have a fear that the profits from some assets could be neutralized by the losses of others.... main feeling is <uncertainty>... an issue with which i live since some childhood family related problems.... i only think that i need to STICK TO THE SYSTEM at least for one more full year, since first year was so profitable. Wanted only to thank you and to know you, Have a nice day |
Thank
you for sharing your process. You might consider taking your feelings about <50 drawdown> to Tribe as an entry point.
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| October
25, 2021 Has to Succeed Hi Ed, Wishing you and your family well, I am an aspiring trader with a few years in the market and have followed your career with great interest. I find myself still trading sideways with my small hedge. I would like to learn from you since you have such a great perspective and would compensate you in any manner that could be of use to you, time, money, free work. I am humble enough to offer any effort in exchange for a bit of your time. I know I could be of use to you. I have to succeed for my friends and family and would be eternally grateful. How can I be of service? |
Thank
you for sharing your process. You might consider taking your feelings about <having to succeed for others> to Tribe as an entry point. I wonder if you can imagine yourself in an art museum, gazing upon a painting by Rembrandt - and then also imagining how his family and friends feel about his success. |
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| October
23, 2021 Stopping Losses with a .223 Dear Ed, I farm sheep in Australia and am In my mid thirties. My ewes lamb in mid winter. I become quite emotional at this time because foxes can come in the night and kill / injure or miss mother new born lambs. I feel a strong responsibility to care for the flock and to protect my livelihood. When I see a fox in the paddock with the sheep at night my emotions become very strong. I have a very accurate Finish rifle in .223 with a German scope and high powered torch that I can attach to the barrel. When I see a fox with the torch I turn the torch off. Then I walk to a point to which I think I can take a shot within about 200m. I then usually lay down to use my bi pod and turn the torch on again. If I can identify the fox clearly and I have a safe shot I close the bolt and I set the trigger by pushing it forward from behind (a factory add on)- then I take the shot which is a humane kill 95% of the time. For some reason when I set the trigger my mind clears. My main observation is that I have quite a distinct process or system for controlling foxes with my rifle. I do not have such a process for my participation in financial markets which is why I recently have reached my uncle point again. My participation in markets involves strong emotions and the potential to lose my livelihood plus many variables I can not control. Much like the sheep paddocks at night. This uncle point coincides with discovering you and your work. I went through all my trades and came to the conclusion that I would have made quite a lot of money if I stopped my losses at a predetermined point and stuck to some form of a plan based on a system. Instead I have lost quite a lot of money which is hard to accept but true so I must accept it. I must now develop my own system. I would like to be a part of your Tribe by reading FAQ and writing in once in a while. I also wanted to thank you for the free material you have provided- I believe to be good at something and then share your gift is the mark of a man. Below is a Wedge Tailed eagle eating a fox shot with the above method. My correspondence is not meant to offend you and I hope that it has not. All the best.
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Thank
you for sharing your process. You might consider taking your feelings about <cutting losses> and <protecting your flock> to Tribe as entry points. I wonder if you can envision yourself setting up your scope and torch, easing the trigger forward, taking the shot and thereby preventing the foxy trend from carrying off part of your tender flock of Aussie Dollars. |
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| October
22, 2021 Unconditional Acceptance Ed, The Trading Tribe practice brings salvation to thought forms through the light of human consciousness. By serving the forms with unconditional acceptance and compassion you are serving God. Best regards, |
Thank
you for sharing your insights. |
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| October
22, 2021 Health Regime Good evening Ed, To thank your selfless and unorthodox contribution to humanity, I'd like to share my own health regime by using the wisdom from the East and the West: 1. Eat less and eat no or little meat 2. Life is too short to count calories 3. Cultivate strong will to reject news as well as sugary, salty and greasy food 4. Eat organic but some of the food doesn't need to be organic 5. Sleep well 6. Enjoy outdoor and sunshine and remember to breathe 7. Excise Gently 9. Love yourself first 10. If you are stuck, come to this site to untie your knots;-) Thank you! |
Thank
you for acknowledging me and the work - and for sharing your Health
Regime. |
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| October
21, 2021 Example of Back Test Testing Good morning Ed, Can you please provide an example of back testing? Thank you! |
Thank
you for asking about back testing. See: Back Test You can find this and additional information at the Resources link, above |
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| Oct
21, 2021 The Blame Game See previous: September 6: Book Report Dear Ed, It is interesting that you included "All wars are bankers war" from youtube in your most recent conversation. Though the content is dramatic and horrifying, I am surprised by how few viewers were numbered on this vast platform since its publication in 2016. The video also reminds me about your remark in "Govopoly" of "no conspiracy" theory. Since your book "Govopoly" drastically reduces my time on news and other propagandas, I learn to focus on the most important things in order to have a right livelihood. I can't thank you enough.😍 Here is my question: based on your teaching of a system model for dynamic behavior, a situation is mostly too complex or too interrelated for simple answers. Everything influences everything else. If there is no one cause for any event, why does the video only convey one message? That is to blame bankers for all the evil acts of war and instability of the world. You teach us to be intelligent beings and not to place causality over responsibility. Don't you think the video "all wars are bankers war" is too banal and obvious? If all filthy rich bankers on wall street are evil, does that mean all poor people are innocent and angelic? If so, the revolution is inevitable and it is justified, isn't it? Please advise. Thank you for your time!!! |
Thank
you for raising the blame issue and for caring to think deeply about it. I include the banker's-war video on my site to present additional information about many of the events that appear in Govopoly. I do not include the video to vilify (or deify) specific groups - such as the banking sector. System dynamics aims to identify and verify structural relationships and how they explain associating behaviors. Govopoly presents a structural model and a step-wise simulation of the evolution of our economy that explains many of our current directions; it does not place blame on any one element or sector. In my experience, people do not generally think in terms of system dynamics; they think in terms of cause-and-effect and assigning blame. For example, you might notice a recent increase in crime and violence in some of our inner cities. Govopoly suggests this associates with the disappearance of the Free-Competition Sector. Free Competition provides opportunities for individuals to employ their energy and talents in productive ways. Absent these opportunities, individuals may turn to alternative forms of livelihood. Our modern media frequently employs the cause-effect-blame model. In this case, it blames the rise in inner-city crime and violence on guns. This kind of thinking supports of anti-gun legislation even though such legislation may act to further suppress the Free-Competition Sector. For another example, Jack, an alcoholic, lives with his wife, Jill an enabler. They form a system in which Jack drinks and irritates Jill. Jill responds by complaining; her complaining irritates Jack who responds by drinking. Both parties blame each other; neither party appreciates the underlying dynamics or their role in it; they do not have a model that supports their working together to restructure the way the pressures interact within the system. For yet another example of the prevalence of cause-effect-blame thinking, as you point out, the banker's war video places blame on the banking system. At this point, in our cause-effect-blame society, you might even notice a temptation to blame causal thinking ! An approach more consistent with system thinking merely observes and models the dynamics, without judgment, and then aligns an investment portfolio accordingly. In our current case, you might notice the continuing assimilation of the Free-Competition Sector by the Govopoly System. This indicates a continuing decrease in the overall standard of living, including a decrease in manufacturing jobs, an increase in dependency on government, continuing inflation and volatile moral-hazard markets. |
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| Oct
20, 2021 Sticking to the System Hello Mr. Seykota, To clarify further, you asked me what I would rather do (than pull my stops). I would rather leave my stops in and not cancel them. So I was wondering what you think my problem is if I keep taking my stops out - or not put them in - when I would rather put them in after I enter and trade, and leave them alone and not move or cancel them. Thank You! |
Thank
you for clarifying your problem. You might consider taking your feelings about <keeping your agreements> to Tribe as an entry point. Meanwhile, you might notice the feelings that come up for you during the next event in which you break an agreement, either with others or with yourself.
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| Oct
16, 2021 Vital Skills Dear Mr Seykota, I hope you have been keeping well and staying safe. Your plant based diet seems to be having a positive impact on your physical health and not taxing on your mental health. That is great news. I myself find a plant-based life style simple and effective. I’m avoiding processed plant 🌱 based nutrition now and eating more fresh food. Anyways, I have a question regarding skills and knowledge. To test a trading strategy, what skills in relation to mathematics, statistics and programming do you know to be vital? These fields of study are very extensive, I am narrowing it down as much as possible. Your help would be greatly appreciated. Kind regards |
Thank
you for raising this issue. I do not know of any particular mathematical skills vital for back testing. You might consider your willingness to do whatever it takes to test your strategy. That willingness can attract the resources you need to accomplish your mission. You might consider taking your feelings about <doing whatever it takes> to Tribe as an entry point. |
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| Oct
15, 2021 Reunion Dear Chief, yesterday I talk to my wife. The communication is technically (terrible connection) and emotionally difficult. After about 20 minutes of listening to accusations and relating to events in the past I loss my temper and yell at her (maybe you still know my yelling from Reno: I can be very loud). I tell her that I find the way she describes my behaviour utterly unfair and that her imputations are cheap and plainly untrue. We both calm down. I ask her if she is willing to listen how I feel about the situation. She agrees. I tell her that I got physically ill, I tell her about my frustration and my feelings of despair, that as they leave it felt as losing a part of my body, that I thought about killing myself because I could not stand the misery and that the feeling of responsibility to my older children halted me from making something irreparable. She says that I am exaggerating and creating drama. I tell her that I understand her view, and see no sense in talking further. We hang up. I remember telling a lady friend, in a similar situation, to keep on repeating the same content until she feels that her boyfriend accepts it, or until her boyfriend tells her that he is not willing to listen anymore. I call her again and ask her if she is open to listen about how I feel. She agrees. I repeat the same: I tell her about my frustration and sadness and pain of not seeing her and the children. I tell her that as the officers reject me at the border I feel as someone would rip out my heart. I tell her that after some weeks I do not tolerate seeing her picture or pictures of the children, because of the pain. I remember her that during the whole time I offered my support, financial and practical, called her several times a day, and did not ask her to come back, because I figure out how hard and difficult it is for her, with a dying mother and two little children in a dictatorship during Corona restrictions. I repeat that I do not criticize her decision, and that I can understand her and that her decision is right, and that I suffer under the circumstances. I wonder if she prefers me to keep my feelings for me and telling her that everything is fine. She compares the situation with the war, where you expect compliance from the soldiers and not that they talk about their feelings. She mentions that she is so distressed that she cannot listen or be open to anyone´s feelings. In her view, I failed as a partner. She feels that I did not yield enough emotional support. I find that I could not do any better. Today we talk shortly. I tell her that I want to be with her, but not at any price: if the relationship stays this way, I prefer not to be with her. She answers that she does not want to separate but to work on the relationship. She returns in three days. We do not look forward for it, we are both worried about the further development. I tell her "when you are here I will f--- you until one cannot tell the difference between you and a meatball". She laughs. We love us, it is a horrible situation. Maybe we can use it to grow (her guilt issues, my abandon issues). Maybe the pain is stronger than the love. Thanks for listening and reading. Yours, |
Thank
you for sharing your process. |
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| Oct
14, 2021 Registration Good morning, I am writing because I would absolutely love to join a Tribe but can not find a way to do so without registering on the eseykota.com website. I am happy to register, and have done so several times now. When I register I get a "Thank you for registering" message. When I go to log on, however and type in my login information, I am never able to actually log on. The login screen just continues to refresh and provide a new, blank login screen. I would appreciate any assistance you can offer on this matter. Thank You, |
Thank
you for setting me know about your situation. I wonder if you can send me a series of screen shots illustrating your process and results. |
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| Oct
12, 2021 Forrester Information Greetings Ed, I trust this email finds you well. Here is a PDF I think you can enjoy, the long version of the life-story of Jay Forrester. I'm not sure where I found it, but I did set it aside some years ago. Here it is and I hope you enjoy it. It contains some rare pictures dating back to 1940, details about his early life etc. Regards, |
Thank
you for sending me the PDF. |
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| Oct
12, 2021 Where to Start Hi Ed, I really appreciate your teachings and have been working in the trading world for a short time. Where do you advise me to start? Do you think a trend following strategy is applicable to bitcoin? With Donchian channels the back tests seem to give excellent results. |
Thank
you for raising these issues. You might consider starting from where you currently find yourself. Actually, you don't have much choice about this. Yes, you may apply trend following to Bitcoin or, for that matter, to any security. You might also consider that trend-following systems provide a framework for getting into the major trends and cutting losses; trend following signals do not predict the outcome of any particular trades; trend following works, on average, over a great many trades. You might consider taking your feelings about <wanting to feel secure> to Tribe as an entry point. |
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| Oct
11, 2021 Finds the Feeling of Rejection Surprising Dear Ed, I report about my process. She is returning on Sunday, after 9 weeks. To my surprise I observe rejection from my side. I am not looking forward to her return, I rather experience the idea of driving 15 miles to the airport to pick up her and the children as annoying. I feel that her decision to stay with her ill mother without consulting with me, as noble and selfless as it is, stole me two months of my life. Right now, I would prefer to be alone. I don't know how I am going to react when I see her and the children again. Maybe it is a self defense mechanism. Deep inside I feel terribly sad. I want to take my feelings about "how could you do this to me" to the hotseat. Yours |
Thank
you for sharing your process. |
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| Oct 7,
2021 Capital and Risk Mr Ed SEYKOTA, I trust this finds you well, and I appreciate your time taken to read my email. Firstly, I apologize for asking this very same question that you've probably been asked innumerable times. The question is about the minimum starting capital required for trend following trading. It's been published, in particular, by Michael COVELL that you once responded to that question by stating something akin to, “I’d ask a trader who thinks he needs a certain amount before he can trade exactly what amount he would need to stop trading.” I had asked this question of Michael COVELL, but he referred me to your quote and further stated that my stock broker /stockbroking platform - in the context of minimum trading capital requirements - was not going to be the limiting factor in my ability to trend-follow trading, but he did not go on to qualify his statement. Yes, I fully appreciate that my psychological / behavioral / mathematical ability will also be fundamental to my ability to become a profitable trend following trader, but if I can't even satisfy the minimum starting capital issue, then my trend following days are dead before they've even started. I'd like to quote Larry HITE and say that I'm a little slow, could you please explain. I live in Australia and use an Australian stockbroking platform, and have used a number of different brokers over the years to buy shares/ETFs. To my knowledge (and I'm yet to find anything or be told anything to the contrary) when trading / investing / buying stocks through Australian stock brokers / broking platforms, the minimum buy amount is AUD$500.00 (not including brokerage). I'm sure I'm not telling you anything new. As a trend following trader, if I risk 1% of my trading capital on one trade to buy X number of ABC shares, and that buy trade MUST be a minimum of AUD$500.00, then surely my minimum starting capital - to even have a crack at trend following trading - MUST be a minimum of AUD$50,000.00 (not including the cost of brokerage in and out)? Of course, if I wanted to risk more of my trading capital per trade, e.g. 2%, 5%, 10%, 100%, then my minimum starting capital could be less, e.g. $25,000, $10,000, $5,000, right down to $500.00 for a 100% all in 'investment'. However, that would not be prudent risk management. It'd be bold, but not prudent, and I'm too old (53 yrs) and indebted to be bold. So, if there is no minimum starting capital required to trade the trend following way - not to mention the necessary funds to add units to a well formed trend and/or diversify into non-correlated markets - then could you please explain to me the mathematics of how I can fund my trend following endeavours with a starting capital of less than AUD$50,000.00? Thank you for any assistance you can provide. Regards, |
Thank
you for raising this issue. Say, per your example, you have $50,000 starting capital. Say, for example, you plan to risk 1% ($500) on a trade. Note: I do not recommend for or against your risking any particular amount. Say you plan to enter XYZ stock at a price of $50/share and cut your loss at $45/share. Thus, you plan to risk $5/share. So to risk $500 you would have to buy 100 shares - and allocate $5,000 capital to the trade. With this plan, you might have on five trades at once, risking a total of about $2,500 and tying up a total of about $25,000 of your equity. Note the difference between the capital you have to allocate to the trade (a function of the price) and the risk you take (a function of where you place your stop relative to your entry price). |
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| Oct 3,
2021 Speaking Up Ed, Okay I will be the one to say it. This guy is one of the richest people of the planet and no one watching these videos (on the Mandelbrot set) seem to know who he is. This is crazy, I've been subbed for 6 months now so I doubt it is even used anymore. Anyway if Ed does see this I would first like to say your a madman and second thanks for setting a path for trading. |
Thank
you for showing an interest in the Mandelbrot work. For more: Elephant Valley and Poem. |
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