Nov 30, 2020
Workshop Update
Ed,
Great to see that FAQ is updated again, I was wondering about your Workshop goal too. Thank you for the update.
I
am still on my way to complete my goal, to follow system all the way
till 31 Dec 2020. I have been updating the support group through weekly
email ever since the TTP Workshop. I am really thankful for their
support to provide the field of acknowledgment.
Thanks to
TTP Workshop 2020 is probably one of the best year in my life. I have
done well in my business and trading. Credit to the Clear Intention =
Clear Result.
I am more clear about my rules and the positive intention. Most amazing part is sometime I get to enjoy uncertainty and pain.
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Thank you for sharing your process.
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Nov
29, 2020
Puerto Rico
Ed,
Will you ever come back to Puerto Rico?
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Gracias por preguntarme sobre eso.
Dondequiera que voy, llevo un poco de
espíritu puertorriqueño en mi corazón.
Planeo volver pronto en persona.
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Nov
29, 2020
System
Dynamics
Hi Ed,
Have you ever found any use for Systems Dynamics modeling techniques as
it relates to trading? (As opposed to “raw” simulation)
Thanks & best,
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Thank
you for raising this issue.
I have various System Dynamics models in publication, including:
Cycles in the Price of Anhydrous Ammonia
Radial Momentum and Levitator Dynamics
Romantic Attraction Dynamics
Epidemic Dynamics
The Assimilation Model - Govopoly
Fundamentalist / Trend Follower Dynamics
Cartography of the Mind Model
Self-Regulating Trading Models
Etc.
I wonder what you mean by a "raw" simulation.
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Nov
25, 2020
Headache
Dear Ed,
I'm trying to read a textbook about programing. My head specifically
hurts a lot when I read this textbook, so I'm wondering. Does your head
hurt when you read a programming textbook too or am I doing it wrong or
is this hurt in my brain a knot of emotional hurt?
I would love to bring this as an entry point to a Tribe meeting but I
haven't seen any update about the Austin tribe meeting right now.
Thank you
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Thank
you for sharing your process.
You might consider exploring your headache for an associating critical
incident and then also review the effects of associating decisions you
recall making around that incident.
You might consider conducting this kind of exercise in a Tribe meeting.
I plan to host another Austin Tribe series when I get more clarity
about the ever-evolving rules about travel and meetings.
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Nov
24, 2020
Wants to
Start TTP Meetings
Hi Ed,
I purchased you’re book this past summer and would like to join or
start a TTP meeting.
I live in Montrea,l Canada.
How can I join or start my own TTP meetings?
Thank you in advance.
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Thank
you for raising this issue.
You might consider checking you local regulations about conducting
meetings.
Meanwhile, I plan to get the Tribe Reach-Out service back on line - so
you can locate members.
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Nov
17, 2020
Looking for
Updates
Mr. Seykota,
This a greeting from afar.
I see there is no update in FAQ since 12th Aug.
This email, on purpose, is to find you save and hope everything is
going well for you.
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Thank
you for checking up on me and for motivating me to catch up with my FAQ
responses.
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Nov
16, 2020
Bitcoin
Hi Ed,
I have enjoyed hearing your perspective on Bitcoin and cryptocurrency.
I don’t know much about bitcoin other than a very basic understanding
of blockchain technology; so I spent the weekend searching other
investors and traders views on Bitcoin.
It’s interesting that there are traders like you, Dalio, and Buffet who
have little confidence in the future of Bitcoin and
cryptocurrency. And then you have others like Simons, Thiel
and Tudor Jones who are either trading futures or buying Bitcoin
outright.
Then I came across this link to a recent CNBC interview with Paul Tudor
Jones:
https://www.cnbc.com/video/2020/
10/22/paul-tudor-jones-on-bitcoin-
its-like-investing-early-in-a-tech-company.html
I remember that before the savings and loan melt down, a broker friend
and I were eating lunch in La Costa while we watched new savings and
loan locations being built on three corners of a high traffic
intersection.
I remember my broker friend and I looking at each other and asking:
“What are we missing here?” I spoke to this friend recently
and he asked me exactly the same question about Bitcoin.
I don’t know if this scenario is analogous to the S & L
situation years ago, but I couldn’t help being struck by the
similarities and the lingering question: “What are we missing
here?”
Best,
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Thank
you
for sharing your process and contemplations about Bitcoin.
I notice you can have little confidence in something and still trade
the trends.
FAQ does not make recommendations to buy, sell, hold or stay out of
individual instruments. See Ground Rules, above.
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Nov
15, 2020
Govopoly
Hello Ed-
I hope you are well. I see you have not updated FAQ in a few months and
I hope it will return soon! I'm a newer and younger (36 yo) trend
following trader. I have gone back and read almost every FAQ post. It's
become a bed-time reading ritual for me this year and I thank you for
doing this :)
I purchased your book (Govopoloy in the 39th day) and I found it
provided enormous insight into what is occurring this year with the
"pandemic" and the government's overblown and disastrous responses
around the world.
Your book has given me comfort and assistance in understanding what is
happening and realizing what I can do to try to help my
family.
Thanks again,
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Thank
you for sharing your process, for acknowledging me and the work and for
motivating me to catch up with my FAQ responses.
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Nov 14, 2020
Austin Tribe
Hi Ed,
I
spoke with you maybe 5-6 weeks ago, wanting to join a Tribe in
Houston/Austin area. Have you given anymore thought to starting one up
again?
Obviously COVID continues to do us no favors but was wondering your take on it.
Also,
I have given your Trading System Project a go. I have matched the
P&L with the 15/150 parameters. The first tab displays the
data from that run. ... My programming skills are not great yet
and the sheet is a little buggy but I believe it has performed
properly. I hope all is well with you and hope to hear from you
soon.
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Thank you for reaching out about a Tribe meeting.
I plan to resume when meetings and travel normalize.
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Nov
13, 2020
Thinking in
terms of R
Hello Ed, How are you?
How can I decide my portfolio heat?
I think in terms of R (Van Tharp). Let's say I trade 4 strategies
simultaneously which amount to an expectancy of a little bit more of 1R
and a standard deviation slightly lower than 2R. Then, E/SD equals to
more than 0.5R, which according to Tharp the maximum portfolio heat
would be 25%.
How does he arrive to that number? Is that maximum useful for "my
money" or for "market's money"? The sensation is that I can afford an
even higher portfolio heat but Tharp is really definitive with the 25%
number and just for objectives of wealth growth.
Also, my conclusion is that every system should have the same
allocation of portfolio heat. Again, how can I make a better informed
decision about heat allocation?
My account is small -I'm starting out- so I cannot afford positions
with a very small f. I need to find a sweet spot between frequency of
trading, duration of the trades and the number of simultaneous
positions I can afford.
Just let me know what you think about this. I'm walking this path on my
own for there is not much info about it, but I don't care, it's fun. If
you kno some other source, please, let me know.
Take care
Javier
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Thank
you for raising this issue.
You might consider addressing specific questions about the Expectancy
Model to someone who supports it.
In that regard you might also raise questions about how having
expectations fits with following trends without any projections.
You might also ask to see some back-tests, or actual trading results,
showing the long-term equity curve you get using Expectation Theory.
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Nov
12, 2020
How to Trade
with Continuous Futures Data
Hello Ed,
I hope you are very well.
Following on from completing both Trading System Projects I devised my
own system for trading commodities using support and resistance. I
tested it on continuous data and the results were promising.
To trade the system for real I must trade it on the individual
contracts, but obviously I cannot use those charts to generate the
system’s signals.
Should I take entry and stop loss prices from the continuous market and
apply those exact prices to the individual contracts? Or should I try
to match up the signals I get from the continuous market with
equivalent price action (highs and lows) on the individual contracts?
At the moment I’m muddling through with the former. Is there a reason
to favor the latter or is it muddling either way?
- - - - -
I knew that if I wrote to you it would stimulate my brain to think up
solutions to the question I previously posed.
Of course one way to do this is to take entry signals from the
continuous market and once a signal is generated, go to the live market
and enter on the open.
But then how to handle exits by stop losses? Not use actual stop
losses, just manually close them on the next day’s open?
Is there an elegant solution here that I’m missing?
Regards,
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Thank
you for raising this issue.
Some traders generate signals on the continuous series and then trade
the contract currently active in the continuous series.
I do not know what you "should" do.
You might consider identifying your feelings about <wanting to
do it right> and noticing if they prevent you from doing it at
all.
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Nov 9,
2020
Feelings
about the Election
Dear Ed,
My feelings about the election. So it seems that Joe Biden has won the
2020 election. I'm wondering if this DNC win is a short term pull back
in a long term trend change where America is becoming more Republican
given the big political trend change we saw in 2016 with Trump winning
for the GOP or was Trump's win for the GOP a short term pull back in
trend where America is becoming more and more for the DNC?
All the best and I hope you are well,
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Thank
you for sharing your process.
In my book, Govopoly in the 39th Day (2013), my Assimilation Model
illustrates the assimilation of the Free Competition Sector by the
Govopoly System.
So far, events continue to unfold along the lines of the model,
including political contests between the major parties turning into
theater for the masses.
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Nov 9,
2020
Workshop Goals
Dear Ed,
I thought I would share with you that I am falling way short of my 2020
[Workshop] goal:
'I weigh 105kg, 12% body fat by end 2020'
I'm currently at 99.5kg, 13% Bodyfat, after starting at 92.6kg, 11%
body fat.
I wonder if you have met the goal you set at the 2019 workshop in Texas?
best,
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Thank
you for sharing your process and for raising the issue about goals.
My own Workshop goal has me losing about 40 pounds and
weighing 185 pounds on or before August 7, 2020.
In practice, and with considerable effort, I manage to reach a little
under 190 pounds and then settle out at about 195 pounds.
Along the way I wind up with a hernia and also with a case of shingles.
I take both as motivations to reconsider my notions
about organizing activity around goals.
Trend followers go with the flow without trying to project targets.
I now hold goals as artifacts of trying to predict the non-existing
future - and also as control-centric manipulations that may easily lead
to drama; I now prefer organizing my activities around purposes and
processes.
For example, I now view weight as an element in a process of
maintaining an overall life balance between healthy eating and healthy
forms of physical activity.
I enclose a recent photo of me with one of my exercise machines.

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October 31, 2020
Bastrop, Texas
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Nov 1,
2020
Reach-Out Off
Line
Hi guys
I am unable to register [for the Reach Out page].
Regards,
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Thank
you for letting me know.
I have the process off line pending a security review.
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