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Epidemic Lab



Contributors Say Ed Says
May 31, 2020

How to Pronounce Govopoly

Hi Ed, 

You create the word “Govopoly”.

Like dictionary, can you mark the phonetic and  accent for the word? If it is Kenyon and Knott phonetic, it would be better. 

Hope all is well with you.
Thank you for raising this issue.

Govopoly means Monopoly by government sanction.

The pronunciation and cadence for Govopoly follow that for Monopoly.

guh - vhap - oly  :  /
gəˈvɑpəli/
May 31, 2020

Epidemic-Lab Questions

Ed,

I visit your site with considerable interest and have some questions about the Overview chapter at the Help tab.

1.  You have six stages of epidemic. I wonder where you have the Recovered stage.

2.  How do you consider the length of time a person remains Susceptible; one could remain Susceptible indefinitely and subject to exposure from several sources.

3.  What do you mean by "Normal Organic Rate?" How do you determine that?  Can you have lifetime immunity?

Thank you for reading the material carefully and for asking direct and perceptive questions.

1.  The model has no "Recovered" stage.  I have people recovering from Exposed, Infected and Bedridden and flowing to Immune.  The rest wind up in Deceased.

In the model, you can adjust the Transfer-Forward fractions for Exposed, Infected and Bedridden. You can also adjust the Durations people remain in these stages.

You also have an option of modeling the loss of immunity by re-cycling a fraction of Immune back to Susceptible.

The model allows you to experiment with your own assumptions to find ones that you consider reasonable and that also generate simulations that fit your experience.

2.  You may adjust the Duration of  Susceptible by setting Viral Heat. Viral Heat, a property of the virus itself, informs the conversion of Susceptible to Exposed.

3.  You obtain the The Normal Organic Rate of conversion when you allow the epidemic to proceed without interventions such as distancing, treatments or vaccines.

The organic rate depends on viral heat, a property of the virus itself.  Various studies put this rate for COVID-19 initially as exponential growth with doubling period of about 5 days.  Later, as fewer Susceptible remain, the rate falls, tracing out a bell-shape pattern.

You can set the Duration of Immunity to anything from temporary to permanent.  Temporary immunity implements by recycling Immune back to Susceptible.
May 31, 2020

Space X : Govopoly or No Govopoly

Dear Ed:

I hope things are going good with you.

For the purpose of modeling as described in Govopoly book, which bucket company like Space X would fall into ? Free Market Competition or Govopoly sector ?

Thanks
Thank you for raising this issue.

Following your metaphor, the "bucket," Govopoly System assimilates the contents of the "bucket," Free-Competition Sector.

In my book, I have assimilation as a continuous flow, like water, rather than as discrete events like pebbles or stones.

In your discrete-object instance, you then ask in which bucket the discrete object, Space X, belongs.

Likely, and as with many organizations, part of the firm occupies one bucket and part the other.

Some metrics you might apply to determine how much of a firm to assign to the Govopoly bucket:

1. The percent of income it derives from Government contracts.

2. The degree to which it has no formidable competition, particularly from startups.

3.  The degree to which its officers support the political careers of politicians who have influence in awarding pertinent contracts.

4.  The degree to which its directors rotate between roles in industry, academia, and government.

5.  The degree to which the internal workings of the firm remain obscure to the public.

You might consider taking your feelings about <assimilation> to Tribe as an entry point.
Mayo 31, 2020

Reportando desde Bogotá

Si me equivoco en mi apreciación respecto a tu estudio, me corriges.

Entiendo que en la investigación manejas varias variables y que aplica el distanciamiento, cantidad de gente expuesta ya contagiada y la gráfica señala la probabilidad de contagio, así como la tasa de mortalidad.

Mi humilde concepto es que la cifras que publican los medios no son reales y que si hay gente como tu que si estudie las variables para establecer las que se pueden controlar, vamos a tener correctivos oportunos pero es que ni la OMS ni los gobiernos tiene cifras reales y muchos de los procedimientos para atacar el problema son ensayo y error.

Si no respondo a tu objetivo me excusas, leo y escucho cosas diferente y hasta contradictorias todos los días.

Mi admiración por trabajar en búsqueda de la verdad del asunto.

Sigo confinada en casa y sometida a la evolución de la pandemia para poder visitar a mi familia ...

- - - - -

Reporting from Bogotá

If I am wrong in my assessment of your study, you correct me.

I understand that in the investigation you handle several variables and that the distancing, number of exposed people already infected, and the graph indicates the probability of contagion, as well as the mortality rate.

My humble concept is that the figures published by the media are not real and that if there are people like you who study the variables to establish those that can be controlled, we will have timely corrective measures, but neither the WHO nor the governments have figures Real and many of the procedures to attack the problem are trial and error.

If I don't respond to your objective, you'll excuse me, I read and listen to different and even contradictory things every day.

My admiration for working in search of the truth of the matter.

I am still confined at home and subjected to the evolution of the pandemic to be able to visit my family ...
Gracias por compartir sus sentimientos y su proceso.

Yo también encuentro que los medios publican informes confusos y conflictivos.

Mi modelo intenta formalizar las definiciones de etapas y flujos principales.  Con suerte, puede dar sentido a la situación, para mí y para los demás.

- - - - -

Thank you for sharing your feelings and your process.

I, too, find that the media publishing confusing and conflicting reports.

My model tries to formalize the definitions of the main stages and flows.

Hopefully, it can help make some sense of the situation, for me and for others.

May 31, 2020

More On Feelings about Optimizing

Hi Ed,

I want to follow up on your response to "Feelings about Optimizing" message.

You give 3 examples, but some of your responses aren't very clear to me:

Worry during strong market move triggers emotional response of selling to remove the worry

Worry about 90% drawdowns keeps people away from using systems that give impressive returns in back testing.

Worry about missing out (???) on the ride of a lifetime trigger strategies that keep people managing companies like Disney, Microsoft or Facebook on the edge of bankruptcy until something happens that removes this emotional blocker and they are able to make a fortune?

Do I under stand those examples correctly? Is worry a trigger for emotional response or the emotional response itself?

regards



Thank you for following up.

I gather you understand the first two cases.

In the third, the winner employs a high-risk maximum-leverage strategy until the strategy pays off (not specifically until something happens psychologically).

Worry generally presents as a feeling.  Worry has an important positive intention: risk control.  Without worry, people might stage tea parties in the middle of busy highways or buy lots of high-volatility stocks on thin margin.

In Tribe we observe the distinction between two ways to respond to feelings: pro-actively and medicinally.

For example a lonely person might (pro-actively) engage activities that invite contact with others or (medicinally) consume alcohol, CNS depressants and comfort food to medicate the feelings (make them go away)..

In constructing your trading system, you might consider tasking your feelings about <risk>, <worry> and <understanding> to Tribe as entry points.
May 31, 2020

Economic Benefits of Social Distancing

Ed,

A recent study by Michael Greenstone and Vishan Nigam indicates substantial economic benefits from social distancing.

These experts seem to contradict your model.


Thank you for bringing this to my attention.

The Greenstone/Nigam study (March 2020) relies on the Ferguson three-stage model (Imperial College).  See: link for an expert opinion about the Ferguson model upon which the UK and other governments rely.

The G/N study also incorporates a VSL (value of a statistical life) of around $10,000,000 per person. This follows from their assumption that the average American would willingly pay $10,000 to avoid a 0.1% chance of death.

The G/N study does not present a strong distinction between prevention and postponement.

From their assumptions the G/N study goes on to justify the governments  spending lots of money to achieve these enormous "savings."  

Note: these savings disappear with a lower VSL value, say the value to which the average American actually insures his own life: about $100k.

I notice the study does not recommend offering people in hospital beds an opportunity to monetize their remaining days in favor of their families at the $10MM rate.

My Epidemic-Lab (above) presents a working six-stage model; it lets you experiment with various policies to see for yourself what works and what does not work.  

I conclude that we likely now sit near the end of an enormous disturbance: 10% of it from a novel virus and 90% of if from a Govopoly System growing increasingly wild in its 39-th day.

I invite model builders, epidemiologists and experts of all stripe to visit my Lab and offer comments, criticisms and suggestions on how to improve it.
May 31, 2020

Twin Peaks

Dear Ed,

Thanks for your recognition on my use of animation. I find it is good tool for me to explore how A affects B in a very straight and impressive way.

Validate Efficiency of 'One plane at a time' Method

Per your instruction, I program an automatic optimizing python file using 'One Plane at a time' Method you teach, to replace below previous 'brute force, test-'em-all' Method. It take me around 4 minutes to get the same optimized combinations of [fast/slow/heat], compared to around 2 hours that 'brute force, test-'em-all' Method previously takes. Great improvement in efficiency. 

Phenomenon of Bifurcations

Ed Says: You might also consider noticing bifurcations, in which you find two loci of optimal values on one plane. 'For example, on the get-in/get-out plane, you might find profitable plateaus for slow-in-fast-out and fast-in-slow-out.

My Finding/Observation:

·      I do notice the bifurcations phenomenon, I find 2 separate profitable plateaus when I create mountain_profile 3D graph(As below). Given that we set Heat as 10%.

·      I notice that profitable Plateaus B is boarder and stable than Plateaus A. The implication is that Plateaus A might be over-fitting historic price than Plateaus B, and Plateaus Area B might be more robust than Plateaus Area A.


Twin Peaks


My Hunch:

·      I get a hunch that: if there are 2 separate profitable plateaus, we might get some obvious diversification benefit through creating 2 sub_systems and running them simultaneously.

My Validation for My Hunch:

·      I run simulation to validate my hunch, and find my hunch is wrong, we get almost zero diversification benefit through creating 2 sub_systems and running them simultaneously(See below simulation result table.)

·      It seems that it is hard to get real diversification benefit from diversification among difference lag combinations applying to same market. 

My Question:

·      In my understanding, Plateaus B is  slow-in-slow-out, Plateaus A is relatively fast-in-fast-out. Because fast_lag of Plateaus B is greater than that of Plateaus A, and slow_lag of Plateaus B is greater than that of Plateaus A too.

But you mention slow-in-fast-out and fast-in-slow-out in last email. It seems that this is not consistent with my understanding. I wonder if we are taking about the same point. It would be appreciated if you can provide more clarification.

·      I wonder what is the implication to our trading practice when we know Phenomenon of Bifurcations do exit but we can hardly get diversification benefit from this phenomenon. Hope you can share your insight. 

Always, I hope you healthy and in good spirit and thanks for your generosity.
Thank you for sharing your process, analytics, hunches and questions.

You seem to have peaks at SISO and FIFO.  I recall seeing different peaks for a similar study at FISO and SIFO.  

I suspect the position and number of peaks may reflect the peculiarities of the specific simulation more than indicate any general multi-peak phenomena.

Diversification advantage depends upon having complimentary amplitudes and phase angles for the constituents.

Consider, for example:
A = t/10 + 100*sin(t*2*TT)  // TT = 3.14195
B = t/10 - 100*sin(t*2*TT)

You might not want to trade either A or B independently since the sine wave noise swamps the ramp.

You might like trading trade A + B with very high leverage. since the sine waves cancel, leaving you with a very smooth t/5 ramp.




May 31, 2010

Puerto Rico

Hi Ed,

I have read as much as I can about you over the years and have been regularly reading some of your quotes.   

I decided to go look on the Internet just now and see if there were any tribes in Puerto Rico or seminars of yours coming up.  

I saw the TT twitter page and was blown away to see Puerto Rico for the location.   I live here in Dorado and have been a trend follower for a while now. 

I have been saying I wish I had more of a trading community here to spend time in for the last couple of years so to see you may be here was exciting.  

Are you still in Puerto Rico and do you still hold Tribe Meetings here or work with traders here?   I would absolutely love the opportunity to meet you.

I hope to hear from you soon. 

Sincerely,

Thank you for sharing your interest in attending Tribe Meetings in Puerto Rico.

I plan to return to Puerto Rico when I feel more comfortable about the the current requirements for entry and exit, including quarantines and other regulations.

I wonder if you can let me know the recent regulatory experiences of others traveling back and forth to PR.
May 31, 2020

Helping Others

My Dear Ed,

When I start taking guidance from you it is about trading and becoming better.

Your interview in Market Wizards makes me curious and intrigued. What I don't expect is the totally one more added dimension to the clarity I gain from you. I like helping people so I help, but the clarity comes after reading FAQ that I love to help! Clarity has come very slowly!

Ed, believe me, your guidance keeps making my life so much easier and better and for people around me.

People I now help, feel so much better when I help! Because I smile cutely (like a small child smiling) when I help!

Previously it appears monotonous, since help is what they need! And I also get help from my smiling neighbor. I don't know how and when this change takes place, but I know your guidance somewhere has played a major role.

Day before yesterday, sweeper in the building rings door bell. I have already kept garbage bag outside. I open the door and see him smiling without uttering the word. He has already taken the garbage bag so I don't know why he wants to see me.

I ask him what happened? He says nothing!  I ask him to wait and I get him a chocolate. To my surprise his small grandchild who is hiding is waiting for her gift! They both smile and go away! This takes less than three minutes.

I realize you have been helping people since last few decades. OMG.

I smile. Someone so far away from India changes life of few permanently. Andrew Kilpatrick has written a Book A Permanent Value. Ed has added permanent value in many.

Warren Buffett suggests to choose heroes rationally. For me there are three main. Warren, Charlie and Ed. Salutes and hugs to my dear Ed.

Be safe and healthy. May your Tribe increase.

Thank you for sharing your process and for expressing your kind words of support.
May 31, 2010

Epidemic-Lab Typo

Hi Ed,

Wow, what a fantastic service creating this simulator. I’ll check it out further, just did a cursory reading.

I thought you’d like to see the typo I found in "Overview" so you can correct it.  resopond ==>  respond

Best,
Thank you for catching !



Good Catch !

Image Credit
May 30, 2020

Feelings about Optimizing

Hi Ed,

I am considering adding more assets to my trend following portfolio (as I have only traded one so far)  in order to increase gains opportunity and diversify risk.

I have spent tens of hours documenting myself about the topic of multiple assets position sizing (there is really not much out there), and read some of your risk management articles several times, but an optimal way of doing it is still escaping me.

The method that has more chances of succeeding at the moment, among those that I am considering, would require to simply divide the initial capital by how many markets I want to trade (I was thinking to select them using something similar to Kaufman’s General Fractal Efficiency to make sure that they tend to optimal un-correlation, and then test the aggregate vs. the single using the Bliss formula), which looks to me like the most straightforward approach, basically treating each allocation as if it was a separate account.

Also, even though by adhering to my trend following system’s rules I most of the times find myself on the “right” side of strong moves when they happen, I am still worried about potentially being exposed to high heat at a portfolio level, as assets correlation tends to increase during strong market moves.

Also if I use this sort of watertight compartment system to manage capital, how should I re balance the single accounts? Should I even consider re balancing at all?

I have different feelings coming up while writing this, and I will certainly use them as an entry point to a TTP as soon as it will be possible to attend one, given the current lock down situation.

Thank you for your time, and for the many lessons that I have learned from you.

Sincerely,
Thank you for sharing your process.

You might consider the dependence of your Bliss Function on your core feelings about risk, reward and right livelihood.

For example, your worry about potential exposure to risk during strong market moves informs counter-trend trading strategies that reduce risk by selling into strength.

Worry about missing out on the ride of a lifetime informs strategies that keep people on the edge of bankruptcy until they make their fortunes: Disney; Microsoft; Facebook; etc.

You can also get some impressive theoretical back test returns for systems that admit 90% drawdowns.

In your search to find the "optimal" settings for your system, you might consider the central and critical role of your personal Bliss Function.



Your System
follows from your math


and also from your chemistry.

Dopamine Link

May 29, 2020

Ambiguity

Dear Ed Seykota,

Thanks for all the support you gave me on my trading psychology at personal level. I find myself very much at peace these days as a direct result of feedback emails you sent.

I also wanted to thank you for the interviews you did with Michael Covel and all the amazing modeling work you did on the economy and the Covid-19 epidemic.

I was reading your work on the varies strategies to fight this epidemic. I know you examined effects on different strategies. I got confused on the strategy; delay spreading epidemic until we have a vaccine. I understand we can to do two things to delay the epidemic.

1)  Social distancing with lock down
2)  Social distancing without lock down

In page 10, you stated on early social distancing to postpone the epidemic  "also requires shutting down the economy for a year or more. This strategy works, at a price. 

I know in page 11 you stated lock downs "operates independently from distancing and its effect registers only on Unemployment.  It appears as a side-effect of committing to very-high-effectiveness distancing".

These two statements contradicted me. I came up with few questions.  In page 10, you are saying  social distancing with a lock-down works at a price. 

In page 11, what do you mean by lock-downs "operates independently from distancing"? Does this mean social distancing with a lock-down DOES NOT work AT ALL, even at a price?

Do you conclude a lock-down do not have any benefit at all or it has very little benefit at a very high cost of unemployment?

Do you conclude we should continue social distancing without a lock down? Do you purposefully omit stating your conclusions in your work?

Thanks,
Thank you for reporting your confusion and for pointing out the underlying ambiguity in having Distancing and Lock Down as separate strategies.

In practice, regulators implement high-effectiveness distancing by various methods including lock downs; in the model, you may implement lock down by increasing Distancing 

I no longer have Lock Down as a separate strategy.  More on this at overview .



Section of Control Panel
with revision

www.Epidemic_Lab.com 
May 29, 2020

Successful Reach-Out

Hi Ed,

thanks for replying. 

Just received a contact from a local Trading Tribe ambassador in my area.  Very happy to connect and learn more. 

Have a great weekend!
Thank you for sharing your process.
May 29, 2020

Success With TSP: Trading Systems Project

Dear Ed, 

Thanks for your reply and your time. 

1, I can successfully duplicate your results to the penny for SYS-EA trading S&P and SYS_SR trading Gold. 

2, Please see attached program files if you have interest to have a look. Any advice from you is welcomed. 

3, With simulation_sys_ea_long.py and simulation_sys_sr_long_short.py, I can run any parameters combination if I wish, at the same time, exporting trade_log.txt, metrics_log.txt and equity_log.txt. 

Always, I wish you healthy and happy. 

Thank you.
Thank you for sharing your process.
May 28, 2020

Workshop Request

Ed,

Any chance to get notified when you sense enough interest for your next workshop? :) I am definitely in and willing to put a deposit.
Thank you for showing interest in the Workshop.

You can register your interest on www.TradingTribe.com at the Reach-Out tab.

I do not collect funds until I have a critical mass of participants.
May 28, 2020

Typo

Ed,

On your Epidemic-Lab Overview page, you have "keps track." I think you mean "keeps track."
Thank you for the catch.
May 28, 2020

Epidemic-Lab

Ed,

I like all the additions of clear explanation

Thank you for sending me your feedback.
May 26, 2020

Bearish on a Rising Market

Hi Ed,

I remember all the fun we had with our fluid dynamic experiments.  I came away from those enlightenments a different person. I suspect you have that impact on many people. 

I am particularly fascinated watching ultra slow motion videos of birds in flight.  It seems so obvious to me how they are able to fly.  I will always remember fondly of the time we spent together. 
 
I read your Epidemic Lab Overview with interest.  I was particularly interested in the Implications: namely, Self-destruction of our economic system appears irreversible and imminent. 

I've been saying something like that to myself and other interested folks for several months, but the stock market keeps rising thus making me look foolish because I sold all stocks on 28 Feb thru 9 March. 

I keep expecting to wake up one morning and see the market down 20% before the first trade.  I keep getting disappointed.
 
Wisdom is the combination of knowledge and love.
Thank you for sharing your process and your kind sentiments and your definition of wisdom.

Thank you for calling my attention to "irreversible and imminent." 

I originally have that phrase in the context of a century-long trend including replacement of hard currency with fiat currency.

Per your more immediate concerns about a couple months of rising stock prices, you might like to consider the possibilities of:

1. Fed sponsorship of debt and equity instruments.

2. Euphoria as people come to see COVID-19 more clearly.

You might also like to consider our current economic situation with rapidly-expanding and never-re-payable debt.

I see some possibilities:

1. Liquidation and Contraction: not likely.

2. Expansion and Inflation: more likely

3. Avoidance and Denial: fits most situations.

Of course, Trend Traders don't worry about such things; they just ride the trends and exit on the bends.
May 26, 2020

More On: Wants to Confirm Authenticity

Hello Real Ed,

Thank you very much for your quick and clear answer.

I was not understanding the communications because it didn’t appear to be on your brain wave length... asking me for bitcoin and that type of binary options contract ... ?!

This is his user: twitter.com/EdSeykota4

I’m a little bit concerned that I sent that “person” my personal addresses ( screen shots of your shopping website) in the UK 🇬🇧 and USA 🇺🇸 since I thought it was the real you I was talking with ...

——

Now, can I please ask you to buy the pdf version of your books?

I read and study in my iPad, and I would appreciate the electronic version if possible.

Thanks in advance, Ed.
Thank you for identifying this impersonator.

Evidently, he wishes to take his feelings about <authority> to a Tribe with a lot of it.

I do not sell pdf versions of my books.  

I have several chapters of Govopoly on line for free at www.Govopoly.com suitable for reading with your tablet.



May 26, 2020

Wants to Confirm Authenticity

Hello Ed,

Can you please confirm this is you and the authenticity of these communications?

Thanks in advance, Ed

Thank you for bringing this to my attention.

I do not know any of these messages; I make no such offers; I do not authorize the use of my name or image for such promotions.

I wonder if you can send me a URL to the site that carries this material.
May 24, 2020

Acupuncture

Hi Ed,

My wife is doing acupuncture on me. :)



Thank you for sharing your process.

I wonder if you get the point.
May 23, 2020

One Small Step

Dear Ed,

Just discovered, read the opening pages you have on line, and then ordered your book Govopoly.

(My answer to the question on page 37, without a calculator, is that the pond is half full on Day 39. Due to the doubling effect, it’s full the next day.

What this implies if I’m understanding you correctly, is that the full collapse of our system pretty much happens overnight, once we reach the halfway point. Yikes. Kinda feels as if we’re getting close.)

I’ve been investing in the market over the last few years. I lost some money this March during the dip, and thought “hmm, need to figure this out.” You’re my only friend in the field, so I looked you up, found your song (learned that I’d been whipsawed) and decided to look for more. I’m very much looking forward to reading your book and gaining some insights that I can apply to trading ASAP.

I have developed a deep interest in learning how to trade properly and would like to build up my capital prior to the impending collapse. I’m currently studying Jack Schwager’s book. To whatever extent you’d be willing to help me, I’d very much like to learn from you.

I’ve attached two recordings so you can hear a couple of my compositions. Hope you like what you hear.

All the best,


"One Small Step"

Thank you for sharing your process and your tune.

You might consider your trading results have about 5% to do with what you know about the markets and about 95% to do with what you know about yourself.

The other 500% has a lot to do with luck.

If you would like learn more about yourself, including how you deal with your feelings about market dips, you might consider moving toward authorship of your results by accepting them as flowing from your intentions.  From there you might more easily implement new intentions.

In Tribe, we support each other in developing such acceptance, One Small Step by step.

I sense from your tune you have deep love for music and high sensitivities to balance, rhythm, counterpoint and harmony. You also understand how to build a base and how to launch a flight to a higher level. You know about progression and pattern. You also exercise risk control.

You might consider transporting some of your source intentions about music to your trading.
May 21, 2020

Dissolving Resistance

Ed,

I have a dream this morning about reading TTP reports and apart of the dream was someone sharing about dealing with feelings of resistance toward following their rules.

This inspires me to share my feelings of resistance toward following a routine.

In asking how do I get out of bed everyday at the same time, I saw myself getting out of bed (mentally) and I associated to the experience so much for a split second I thought the dream was real.

When I “wake up” I dissolve any resistance to staying in bed immediately and just do it. I get out of bed “twice”. Thank you for allowing me to share my experience with the process.

With gratitude, humility, and appreciation
Thank you for sharing your process.
May 14, 2020

Captain

Ed,

I enclose a photo of my new companion, here at a lake in Canada, during these days of lock down.




Out Water Skiing


Thank you for sharing your photo.
May 11, 2020

Fiddling Around

Hi Ed,

i’m working hard on my music and  have two concertos coming along. Seitz No. 5 and Vivaldi concerto in A minor.

You inspire me to pick up my violin again after a decade long hiatus. It looks like I am reaching my dream of being able to play some master pieces with improved techniques from another awesome teacher.

I feel grateful to you for the inspiration you give to me!

Have a nice evening!
Thank you for sharing your process.
May 11, 2020

Wants Resources

Hi,

I've recently gotten interested in learning about trading. Also interested in learning more about your weekly meetings. Are meetings canceled due to the corona virus?

Please let me know, and if you could provide any resources for me to learn about how to get involved with the Tribe and/or how to find a mentor I'd appreciate it.

Hope you're staying happy and healthy in this time of turbulence.

Best,
Thank you for sharing your process and for extending your kind wishes.

You might consider clicking Resources, above and also visiting www.TradingTribe.com .
May 10, 2020

Recent Follower

Hi Ed,

I’m a recent follower of yours (unfortunately late by a few decades but very excited to learn). I am most interested in joining a Tribe and attending any Workshop or any other forum that you may offer. 

Kindly guide me and advise. Your teachings are much appreciated and I am grateful already for so much that I have learned from your writings and books.

With much respect

Thank you for sharing your process.

You might consider visiting the Reach Out tab at  www.TradingTribe.com .


May 4, 2010

Sounding like a Carrot

Chief,

I remember our talks about politics as a game of power and control, and the lack of honesty in many politicians. We both wonder about what would happen if politicians told the truth, instead of trying to manipulate, force and seduce people.

My country´s government uses the current crisis to lock down people and to suspend constitutional rights. To my dismay, the national press supports a campaign of fear and subordination to the authorities.

Many people feel distressed, angry, impotent, oppressed. Me too. A new party appears. Its platform includes empathy, acceptance, respect, solidarity, responsibility as basic values. Basically, they suggest a huge Tribe. I decide to enter the party if I see some momentum.

After three days, I am convinced and affiliate. Low and behold. Today, 12 days after its creation, the party has 105.000 affiliates and is the third largest in our country.

I talk with other members and mention the TTP principles. They want to apply them. They wonder about how to gain more associates. I mention the best method to catch a rabbit: stay in the middle of the field and do noises like a carrot. I hope that they see me as a quiet example.

Maybe we can change the way politics work. And if we are successful, our Party, as every good Tribe, will disappear after a huge, nationwide "aha".

The picture of you supporting me in this endeavor, as you always do, fulfills me with happiness and pride.

Best regards,
Thank you for sharing your process.

Politics, as we practice it, follows from the Causal Model of Dynamics.  

The Trading Tribe follows from the System Model.

I support you in continuing to sound like a carrot.
May 2, 2020

Workshop

Dear Ed,

I was wondering if you had any Workshops in the plans for the nearest future. Could you please let me know?
Thank you for asking about a Workshop.

I host Workshops when I sense enough interest.
May 1, 2020

Tactical Empathy

Good Evening Ed.

I share I stumbled into a new book / videos during my lock down.  They are by an ex-FBI hostage negotiator.  His name is Chris Voss.

He describes the use of Tactical Empathy (field of acceptance without judgment) to label and validate the feelings of the other party. 

If this can be done, the other party feels heard and respected, which “clears the road before advertising the destination”. 

He gives many examples of how negotiating works or doesn’t.  Entertaining.  Here is a video if you want to watch it - stay with it, he is setting characters in the beginning.

https://youtu.be/jLQiemA7a_k

The name of his book is Never Split the Difference - Negotiating as if your Life Depended on It.  (Not sure why Depends wouldn’t have been a better word to use).

It is opening doors to witnessing / experiencing my own behavior, and learning new skills.

I hope you are hanging in there.  This virus thing has lots of uncertainty - health wise for us older types.

Cheers,
Thank you for sharing your link.

I wonder how the negotiator manages to simultaneously (1) accept without judgment and (2) change the other person.

I notice he titles his presentation "How to harness trust and empathy."

Con men skillfully simulate empathy to gain the confidence of the mark and then capitalizes the trust to make the pitch.

I wonder what kind of connection you feel with the presenter while you watch the video.






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