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Epidemic Lab

Contributors Say Ed Says
August 29, 2020

Wife Wants to Participate

Hi Ed,

I mentioned to my wife about the Tribe.  She would like to participate in your next tribe. 


Thank you for letting me know.
August 29, 2020

Embracing Feelings

Dear Chief!!

I remember you when i watch this presentation!!!
Best regards,

Thank you for sending me the link.
August 22, 2020

Active Listening


-          I am spending nearly all time I am awake doing three things. Trying active listening, trying to connection emotionally with people around me and really struggling to be in the moment of now.

-          I am making a great progress in having nonjudgmental connection with Wife. It amuses me that how this is all in mind.

-          As I reflect on last so many years, it is obvious that I have not valued experiencing feeling. In fact at times I used to think feeling are useless. I have also beginning to appreciate how much price  I have paid by not being attentive to feelings.

-           I am spending quite a bit of time on thinking about nature feelings. Are feelings shows up in your mind or mind choose how you feel. Ed if have anything that helps me to navigate this, it would be great.

-          Like many other contributors, I have concluded that somethings are at sub conscience level and no amount thinking is going to help with me that. Someday, I need to locate those rocks and part with them. I get it “Rocks tend to operate in the subconscious, impervious to attempts to locate and analyze them logically”

-          I often ponder the assertion and if it is true that am I am really running away into some fantasy world so I do not have to face the real world I live in?  As I am making improvements in the life I have today, it is great and much needed. Even if it does not help with anything else, it is great positive change.

-          I have always thought of myself as person who has deep emotions about everything that I have encountered in my life. But I see the difference between I having emotions and me understanding emotions of other around me.

-          On some level it feels that some of the early gains I have made are disappearing, but at the same time I am noticing few changes that sticking. Attentive listening in marriage and not judging are one of them.

-          I am also committing to making better notes of my own mental journey so I can share it with the community and receive help.

-          Have a good weekend.

Thank you for sharing your process.
August 16, 2002

Experimenting with Sharing Feelings


 I report the follow-up the interaction with my son (August 12, 2020. Virus in the 39th Day: Submission). After thinking about the issue for some days, I invite him to a further talk about <People call my dad an idiot>. He does not like people calling me names; I relate this to <I love my dad> and can identify with him. I tell him that I wonder how he cares about the opinion of people. I mention that some years ago, as I introduce the concept of exercise training for cancer patients, I face adverse opinions and colleagues calling me irresponsible. At the end, I show that the idea is right. I suggest him several ways to handle a similar situation: he can thank people for sharing their opinion about me with him, he can encourage them to share more, he can ignore them, or challenge them verbally, or invite them to go out and discuss the issue thoroughly (he does not like this last one). We talk about the usefulness of masks at school. He mentions the senselessness of this measure, since avoiding contact and conserving distance is neither a reachable nor a desirable goal at school. We continue the talk as we go to the grocery store. In our country, masks are mandatory in shops. He mentions that his mask does not fulfil its purpose; I explain him that, technically, most masks do not. After some minutes, we both agree about the lack of sense of most mandatory measures in our country.

I ask him about his opinion regarding rallies. He does not question my attendance anymore but is not interested in participating himself. Well, a huge difference: I remember our talk last week, as he turns frantic about the possibility of COVID19 spreading.

As we return home, he mentions his troubles with her current romantic interest. Several times the girl accepts his invitation and shortly after that she cancels the rendezvous. He wants to give up. I mention that the girl is giving him the golden key for a fruitful relationship: He can share with her his feelings about “rejection”, “frustration” and “uncertainty” and see her reaction. Maybe she laughs at him or rejects him; maybe she wants to play games. But perharps she decides to share her feelings with him, opening the door for a better, deeper, and more fulfilling relationship. He wants to try this approach. 

Best regards,
Thank you for sharing your process.
August 12, 2020

More on Pain and Learning

Dear Ed,

Thank you for your response. Yes you are right, it lies in my unconscious and no amount of thinking about it is going to resolve it.

Back in June of 2019 during an [Austin] Tribe meeting we role-played my father hitting me for getting bad grades so we have tried that but it hasn't resolved the issue yet.

I would like to try to work on this issue more but I haven't seen an update from you regarding any more Austin Tribe meetings. Perhaps you and I can hold a tribe session here in Austin at my place or yours?

Thank you

Thank you for sharing your recollections.

The role play helps develop feelings about the critical event.

After the role play, the client (Hotseat) has an opportunity to take his feelings further into the process - and to identify the Rocks and to fore-give them back to the Rock Donor - and to receive and practice implementing the Heart Rock.

These steps requires considerable willingness on the part of the client.

Absent willingness, the process my easily turn into a co-dependent exercise in which the Tribe tries to rescue the client while the client resists.

In Tribe we rely on frequent in-process willingness testing and, in case of flagging willingness, quick termination of process.
August 12, 2020

Pain and Learning
Dear Ed,

Since childhood learning has hurt for me, it might sound strange but homework and studying felt so painful which is why I just never did it in high school.

As you know my code has been messy so I decided to take an on line course in object oriented design with Java to learn how to use classes and methods more formally. As the weeks go by in the course and the material becomes more elaborate that pain starts to come pack. Now it's so painful to watch these on line lectures that it takes me 2 days to get through 15 minutes worth of  lectures. What could be the positive intentions of this pain?

I wish that learning wasn't painful for me but rather enjoyable and fun.

Best wishes
Thank you for sharing your process.

In Tribe, we use various methods - such as role playing, field of acknowledgment and acceptance - to locate and illuminate critical incidents during which the Client accepts a Medicinal Rock from a Rock Donor.

We then implement other methods to allow the client to return the Medicinal Rock to the Donor and to replace it with a Pro-Active Heart Rock.

The positive intention  of a Medicinal Rock (often, some form of protection) typically appears during the process.

Rocks tend to operate in the subconscious, impervious to attempts to locate and analyze them logically.

You might consider taking your feelings about <pain of learning> to Tribe as an entry point.
August 12, 2020

Virus in the 39th Day: Submission


In my country many people consider government policies to fight the epidemy an unjustified restriction of constitutional rights. I share this view and participate at a rally in our city. Some 20.000 people attend the march; they do not wear masks, most do not keep distance.

My son (15) criticises my participation. I invite him to talk about it, for I want to understand his point of view.

He explains that he is scared about the possibility of me getting infected, infecting him, he infecting his class and his mother, they infecting their contacts, everybody getting infected.

He turns frantic when envisioning a health catastrophe related to him. I thank him for sharing his view and mention that based on the evaluation of scientific data and discussions with colleages I am not scared and rule out the scenario that he describes.

However, I respect his fear and mention that, for the duration of the pandemia and in order to avoid infection, we do not see each other. His mood changes. He does not panic anymore and mentions that he does not want to stop seeing me. I mention that, due to the local policies, many people cannot see their loved ones for weeks. I invite him to imagine how these people feel.

Then, he mentions what really hurts him: Media describes rally attendees as "covidiots", and it hurts him that people call his dad an idiot.

I realize that his objection to my activities is not based on "fear" but on "love". I mention it to him and add that "love" is the opposite of "fear" (well, maybe not, but I find the sentence cool).

I mention that I don´t want to hurt him and hence plan not to attend further rallies. However, I want to keep talking about the pandemia with him, since I want to find an agreement about how our family copes with the situation.

On the other hand, I have a talk with a lady friend (about 30). As I mention my opinion about Covid16 she yells at me "How do you dare! Do you want your children to die ?".

I observe that, no matter what I wish, I am absolutely certain that my children will die. I prefer not to share my feelings of "anger" and "disgust" about her expressions with her. In the weeks since that I experience some "remorse" about my decision. I consider calling her and telling her about my feelings.

As you know, I have an issue with "control", Hence, I appreciate if you share your impressions about these experiences.

Best regards,

Thank you for sharing your process.

For more information on the dynamics of epidemics, see .  

You can access the 5-Stage model and run your own experiments, all for free.

If you tune the model to replicate the current mortality profile and rates of passage through the stages, you can see:

1. Most people achieve exposure and immunity within the first couple of months
2. The death rate, currently approaching zero, indicates the natural end of the cycle.
3. Distancing slows epidemics and does not change the ultimate fatality rate.
4. The Swedish model (voluntary distancing, no lock down and protect the elderly) works best both medically and economically.
5. The COVID-19 season does not differ substantially from other flu seasons and has a similar ultimate fatality rate of around one half of one percent.
6. Recent increases in "cases" indicate more about the rapidly evolving case-measurement system (and the definition of "case") than about the dynamics of the epidemic.

You might also consider:
1. Face masks stop viruses about as well as chain-link fences stops mosquitoes. 
2. HCL, Zinc, Vitamin D3 and Vitamin C have possible curative effects and receive little official promotion.
3. Most fatalities correlate with pre-existing morbidities.

In the 39th day, the Govopoly System exploits various opportunities to increase the reach of its control over the economy and to motivate proper thinking by the citizens

You can get some idea of the acceleration of penetration of the Govopoly System into our daily lives by comparing the current response to COVID-19 with responses to previous flu epidemics.

The current response includes separating people, polarizing them, scaring them, destroying their livelihoods and interfering with sharing feelings.

You cite shutting down in two areas:
(1) avoiding conflict with your son.
(2) avoiding conflict with your lady friend.

You have considerable skill with medicine, analyzing dynamic situations and communicating with others.  

You wish to communicate on a deep level with your son and lady friend - and have no way of doing so that does not risk alienation.

In your country, from 1920 to 1940, red arm bands with insignias symbolize affiliation, authority, compliance and submission. Around the world, we now have face bands serving a similar function.

For more on the Govopoly System, see my book, Govopoly in the 39-the Day, above.

You might consider taking your feelings about submission to Tribe as an entry point.

Wear Your Face Band

or face the band.

Image Credit

August 11, 2020

Wants His Money Back

Hello Ed.

I wanted to let you know these people are doing bad things in your name . I was wondering l, is there any ways to help me deal with this and get my money back? We really need to get rid of these peoples tarnishing your image Ed.

Thank you for sharing your process.

In TTP, we hold that people generally get what they want - including wanting to complain about what they get.

You might consider identifying all the steps you have to take in order to get yourself into such a situation.

If you'd like to know more about what drives you to take such steps, you might consider taking your feelings to Tribe as entry points.

- - - - -



One of your accounts,
apparently uses my name and reputation
as part of a scheme to defraud investors.

The items on my blog document the story
of one of my readers losing around $10,000 to this scheme.

For documentation, please see his reports on my blog: Ed's FAQ AUG 01-31, 2020
See items for August 5 and August 6, 2020.

Please investigate and consider shutting down that account.

Please let me know when you come to a conclusion about what you plan to do about this situation.

Yours truly,

Ed Seykota
August 8, 2020

From Control to Intimacy


Here is events/progress that transpired since out meeting three weeks ago. My original goal was to come up with comprehensive collection of dialogues, what it meant to me and how I view them and feeling associated with them. But I am abandoning that goal and going to straight to the bullet points. They may be contradictory and un-cohesive, but so does my mind.

-          In first week, I told wife that I am genuinely interested in listening to every single grievance she about me or state of our marriage etc. I also told her that I am going to communicate what I am thinking as it is and not worry much about what impact it would have on her and it would be great if she can do the same.

-          We talk about items that spanned over many years; sometime conversion would go super late in night.

-          Her initial reaction was shock and disbelief.

-          It took her good three to four days to come to terms with it.

-          It was extremely difficult to for me show that I care for what she is thinking, I was more interested in telling what I am thinking.

-          Perhaps I was using showing fake intimacy to get what I want (at least there are two references in my daily notes) that is get her talking and play TTP with me.

-          At one point it become a mind exercise. I hold off my mind and not telling things that would disturb the harmony. I devised method of promptly writing it down whenever I felt like telling her something unpleasant from years ago. It temporary helped but then it reached to a point where I could help myself and get into conversation with her with whatever I had on my mind at the time.

-          All the time I was truth full about one fact for the sure that I kept telling her that she may find my behavior strange but I am going keep talking to her keep listening to her till all topics are done.

-          It was one of the most emotionally charged experience I have ever had.

-          While going to through the process , I cannot help myself but notice that in the past and my years as young man, I have had huge impediment of not experiencing my feeling and that has run havoc in my life. I decided to come up with another list to I need to make. Anytime I get a feeling that I do not like ( be it related to work, something other than relationship, or any area of life ) I make note of it as I go about going with my daily routine and later in the day ask my conscience mind that take notice feeling that were not liked and what is there not to like about it. Insight that is coming from that process is terrific and process has unbelievable positive impact.

-          Using your metaphor of “OTTFFSSENT” ( One, Two, Three…..) : I keep asking wife tell me about “OTTFFSSENT” years ago and tell me all the details and all the aspects associated with that and her feeling about it. Her initial reaction was that why do I need to know, it has nothing to do with me, it should not matter, I should worry about present state etc. But I after 3-4 days realizing that I am not going letting it go, she relented. We talked about it at length. Just as I have expected once I knew it was nothing but one, two, three to ten, all the tension disappeared. I am noticing my need to know is also going way as days passing.

-          In the first week I was making conscious efforts of making her feel that how much valuable she is to me by talking about some good time from past or hugging for no reason or simply asking that I am interested in knowing what is she thinking.

-          I often wonder what is the difference between “Naturally Occurring feeling” and “Feeling you are forcing yourself to feel”. I also, wonder should bother to distinguish  between them.

-          As days were passing, we made a commitment to spend more time share what we are thinking

-          The whole thing was new for her. After initial inhibition she seems on board with the process. At one point she remarked that despite of all the stressful conversation she likes it because it tells that I care, it matters to me. I asked her what gave her impression that I did not care before, she said I just did not. To that I replied what matter is today and I do care

-          I also noticed that for the first ten days or so there I was not thinking about anything else other telling my wife what I wanted to tell and listening to her everything else kid of disappeared from attention.

-          It was a very strange journey of observing my own mind as if entity that making observation is separate from entity is being observed. (Any insight you have would be helpful)

-          It is super hard to accept her without judgements, but with every passing day it is become easier.

-          Last few days life settles into new normal. That is trying to be as nonjudgmental as possible, embrace whatever is happening, things seems to have suddenly shifted for better.

-          My original goal of getting rid of feelings/memories of blast from past has been greatly successful. At least in hours when I am awake. Sub conscience is deeply active while I am sleeping. But I am treating that as a problem to be solved at some future date.

-          I have lot of theories in my mind about why I think the way I think, but I am letting those rumbling play out between my ears trying to be a good listener and trying to understand how other people feel.

-          I often wonder that progress I am making is change for good or I am using TTP process to medicate myself. I do not know the answer.

-          I will keep sending updates and hoping that you continue provide observations and insights.
Thank you for sharing your process.
August 6, 2020

Still More on Fraud Alert 2


My birthday is coming on the 12th . I had plans.. 

Thank you for letting me know about your birthday.

You might consider, on your birthday, and on other moments of now, a plan to celebrate your self, exactly the way you self yourself.

You might wind up selfing yourself a gift, such as freedom from judgments that entrain such drama as you now enjoy.
August 6, 2020

Still More On Fraud Alert


They made me open accounts for them to wire money in my account. I went and filed a assumed name and business account, ein number as well. I feel so deeply mad and frustrated atm...

I have screen shots of their address Bitcoin wallets. If that would help, could you help me track them down? I feel so devastated rn. If there’s any chance we can talk on the phone or FaceTime. I wanted to learn forex.

Here’s another person, Abro he was the one I was sending all my transaction into the funding wallet, he’s the vendor.

- - - - -

Thank you for sharing your process.

Perhaps one or another of my readers can help track down these purveyors.

In The Trading Tribe, we hold that intentions = results and that people get what they want, including getting to pretend they don't want what they get and then complaining about it.

You might consider taking your feelings about <getting rich quickly> and <qualifying vendors>  and <playing the victim> to Tribe as entry points.

Meanwhile, I can contemplate my own intention = result to get myself in the mix with this drama.

August 5, 2020

More On Fraud Alert

Omg!!!! Is this really Ed???? I’m so deep into being scammed... yes I can show you a email portraying as you 

- - - - -

- - - - -

- - - - -

- - - - -

I want these people caught . They have ruined my life savings. :(

They got all my bank info and they made me do all my transfer through bitcoin to a funding wallet. I can’t believe it Ed. I’m so sad rn.
Thank you for sharing your feelings and for sending me the information about your situation.

Perhaps some readers of this blog can help track these purveyors.
August 5, 2020

Fraud Alert


So I joined a group called Ed’s Trading Tribe. It’s an auto trade and I’ve been in it for three months . Is there such thing as this type of business . I’ve been lying off fees and they gave me an option plan that if I put in $10k , I would make $35k-$45k. I don’t know if I’m being scammed or if anyone’s trying to be Ed. I’ve invested over almost $12k into this business coming from this site . Let alone was told that this is Ed’s real page and investment will bring me a 97% return . Please do lmk if I’m
Being scammed thanks!

I’m haven’t seen my portfolio or my trading account. This is Ed’s email the one whose either Ed or suppose to be Ed . Please lmk if this is the real Ed. 

Thank you for letting me know about your situation.

I appear in the book, Market Wizards.

I host a site at
that responds to reader questions - for free.

I do not offer or promote trading plans.

I do not have any recollection of dealings with you other than your letter to me, today.

I wonder if you can send me more information
as to the identity, location, email and website of this group evidently doing business under my name.

I wonder if you can forward copies of any correspondence you have with this group that might help identify them.
August 5, 2020

Takes the Cake


Happy Birthday !

Wishing you many more.

Thank you for remembering me for my birthday (August 7) and for sending me a photo of the cake.

August 2, 2010



TOWFTAUTE (threatening others with feelings they are unwilling to experience) is Now a science:

Thank you for sending me the link.

In general, the feelings we judge (and avoid experiencing) run our lives.

People using the control-centric communication model may lean on such of your sensitive areas and then encourage you to medicate your feelings through compliance.

In effect, they hold your sensitive areas hostage until you consent.

To see how this works, you might consider running some role-play exercises with your Tribe:

Predator: You should feel guilty for not complying with my wishes.

Hot Seat:  Actually, I have no trouble feeling guilt and I feel very little at this point.  I do feel some anger about your invasion of my personal boundaries and attempts to manippulate me.  I wonder how you feel about using manipulation to compromise other people.

Predator: I do not wish to discuss my feelings. Anyway, at least you should feel embarassment.

Hot Seat: Actually, I have no trouble feeling embarassment and I feel very little at this point.  I wonder if you can tell me about your feelings.

Predator: Now don't get me angry at you.

Hot Seat:  I have no trouble feeling my anger and I support you in feeling your anger.  I wonder if you might like to share your anger feelings with me - describe the physical location of your anger, for example.

Predator:  I do not wish to discuss my feelings. Well, anyway, the science says you should comply.

Hot Seat: Thank you for sharing your opinion obout the science.  I wonder if you might like to share your feelings about science.

Predator:  I don't understand any of your responses.  None of this makes any sense to me.

Hot Seat: Thank you for sharing your feelings about confusion. Perhaps you might like to learn more about intimacy-centric communication.

- - - - -

You might notice that during this role-play inerchange the balance of power shifts from Predator to Hot Seat - who has more willingness to experience his feelings.

August 1, 2020



"Casulatity is useless" is something you mentioned  when we were talking during a meeting and I was explaining  something  happening in my relationship with a woman and what caused it.

But the broader issue I am pondering is the following.

I understand the value of taking self responsibility because it forces one to reflect on one's own behaviour and consequently change the outcome.   But understanding causality at subsystem component level is important to understand behaviour of the entire system, is it not ?

or when it comes to understanding one's own mind, it is too complex to get it at a sub-system level and as a result only useful thing one can do is look at outcome and based on outcome make some inference about original intention.

Any recollection you might have would be helpful.

Thank you for asking about my recollections.

I recall meeting a man who does not have much experience relating to others emotionally, who runs from his marriage and into the virtual arms of a fantasy mistress, who then gets a momentary glimpse of intimacy-centric relating and who then quickly returns to his more comfortable control-centric methods.

I recall him promising to report on his progress with using active listening within his marriage; I recall him abandoning his promise and substituting pontification for implementation and understanding for connection.

As a theory, discussion and even as therapy, TTP does not transmit well; it transmits through role models, support teams and lots of practice.

You might get the basic hang of it in a weekend Workshop - especially with Tribe support or formal therapy thereafter - to help you hold on to your projections as others near and dear to you come to accommodate and support your new behaviors.

Trying to analyze and understand TTP pretty much misses the point - as does diving into the art and science of dynamic modeling and parsing subsystems.

At this point, I don't know what else I can do for you, aside from continuing to address my own limitations on intimacy.
August 1, 2020

Govopoly Model Confirmation

Greetings, Ed—

As I reread “Govopoly”, Fitch Ratings service lowers their credit outlook for the USA—

“Fitch Ratings on Friday turned more negative on the outlook for the gold-plated U.S. credit rating. High fiscal deficits and debt were already on a rising medium-term path before the onset of the huge economic shock precipitated by the corona virus, the ratings agency said in giving the U.S. a ‘negative’ outlook, while maintaining a AAA rating... Fitch expects general government debt to exceed 130% of GDP by 2021.” *

This & subsequent credit downgrades are predicted by the Govopoly model.

I refresh my knowledge of the “Trigger Model” pp.143-145.

And I get some good ideas from the “Trend Following” & “Trading Robots” chapters.

I enjoy reminiscing about the “Rebirth” & “Banjo Point” photos from Sep’13 on pp. viii & 340—good times.

—All the best
Thank you for noticing and confirming the Govopoly model - and for the remembrance of some of our connections that appear in photos within the book.

The recent "epidemic" happens along at a convenient moment to justify and distract attention from another quantum leap in the fiation of the exponential debt spiral.

We now have Humpty-Dumpty quivering on the roof top; on one side he rolls into debt implosion; on the other he rolls into fiat inflation (my guess); either way HD roll fast, fall down, go splat.

For more on the dynamics of epidemics, see .

+ I hereby "coin" the term, Fiation: inundation with fiat currency.

Pumping up Equities
with more and more debt ...

... putting out a fire
with colder and colder gasoline.

Picture Credit: Bloomberg via Zero Hedge

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