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Ed
Seykota's FAQ
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FAQ
April 01-10, 2016 <-- back | down | forward --> |
| Contributors Say | Ed Says | |||
| Apr
10, 2016 The Art of the Deal Ed, What's the least you'll take for the book? Maybe we can do a little horse trading. Here's my offer. If you can answer the following question correctly in one word (or less) I'll buy the book for $124.99. If you can't answer it I get the book FREE and you have to pay me $125.00 for reading it. One word, Ed. And no consulting with the Global Brain aka Google. Here's the question. "What is it that connects absolutely everything from the microcosm to the macrocosm?" (ps) Almost forgot, when you send me my FREE book don't forget to sign it. With kind regards... |
Thank
you for reaching out to me with your intriguing proposal. First, I don't know to which book you refer, The Trading Tribe or Govopoly in the 39th Day. Second, before I can do a little horse trading with you, I'd like you to show me your little horse. Third, you might consider taking your feelings about <wanting to control other people> to Tribe.
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| Apr 8,
2016 Some Feelings and Insights Hi Ed, I complain about the self serving nature of people, fancy myself as selfless, and dwell on the unfairness of it. My teen kids are pulling away and being divorced I am feeling gypped, and wanting acknowledgment that I've been a solid dad and played the not so great hand pretty well. I feel a little scared to let go, that there is risk in them feeling abandoned and the whole thing is just packed with uncertainty and fear of loss. My essential Tribe is ceasing to be a Tribe and I feel alone and unrecognized for my contribution. The silver lining is that the conversation with the kids is pretty honest. As kids they are more honest with how they feel than pretty much anyone I know including TT people. But the truth can hurt and I'm having a tough go transitioning gracefully, celebrating the truth and openness and growth, and not feeling like their mother again walks away with the bounty of my work. And I judge these feelings too, my own feelings, as being kind of a pussy. As for this forum, people asking trading questions and advice, or ball washing you annoy the s--t out of me. I want to take it to the Tribe but one member - whose participation is required by the small size of the group - won't commit to setting dates and replies to emails as he pleases. 'Going with the flow' on this means surrendering to his schedule and waiting for his answer. As you probably guessed this too drives me mental, and I resist. I'm pretty frustrated; and eating too much with that idiotic notion that one last food orgy will be followed by being 'good' with regard to eating habits. And when I am in the one-size-up jeans mode I get no attention from the ladies. When I am in the 'fit' mode I get plenty, and then just turn them loose, blow them off. Chubby='please notice me', fit = 'get lost'. Its insane. I keep doing it. Snapshots can change. Or maybe what we tell ourselves and the Tribe we want is actually not what we really do want. For me I now recognize that some of the stuff I thought I wanted is likely more what I thought I wanted other people to see me as. And maybe this is just part of the process. Thanks for listening. |
Thank you for sharing your feelings and your insights. | |||
| Apr 8,
2016 Reformation Ed, After our last Tribe meeting at the old venue, we disband. I then invite the members to the reformed Tribe at a new more central location. I ask for commitment as follows * Have read the book "The Trading Tribe" * Have read the material on the TTP extensions. * Commit to report all their hot seats to FAQ * Show up reliably. If you /have/ to be somewhere else, OK. But not "a better offer came up" or "I didn't feel like it". * Follow the full process including TTP extensions. At a minimum, be prepared to follow the full process when standard hot seats fail. * Fully support others in the process ie vocal encouragement, participation in brainstorming and in reenactments, and in moving the process forward. Optional but welcome: * Providing "snapshots" to the group of their desired end state. --- 6 People commit to the new tribe. One (#11) who I expect to join us doesn't, saying he needs to look for a new job. Another (#12) commits to attend the new Tribe but then pulls out shortly before our meeting, saying "it's not for me". I recall that in his first meeting working up to his hot seat, he suddenly says that he sees a hot seat there but "it's not happening tonight", with hands out in a 'stop' signal. We stop. I feel he does not have the intention and that he intends to leave, or perhaps to stay and make limited progress. One (#9) member is sick and cannot attend the first meeting. I feel nervous before out first meeting at the new location. I console myself with the thought that even if the Tribe falls apart I give it my best. I also feel <who am I to change this long-standing Tribe?>. I obtain more drums and bring them along in a large suitcase. A few of the others, as they arrive, say they feel a bit nervous. Beforehand a few of us meet in a bar nearby. To me #7 seems very very different, more alive, warmer. I feel great about this. I ask her about it; she says "I have no problems! I just work on my trading". She makes a complete break with her past BF. "She shares a house with her parents but does not get entangled with their many dramas. Her brother asks to learn about trading. Previously he dismisses of her - <what do you, a dumb girl, know?> (even though she has studied advanced abstract algebra etc). Once everyone arrives - on time - we do drumming and check in. The atmosphere feels nice and warm, brings to mind the German word "gemutlichkeit". I try a new exercise based on the concept of Hamming Questions (questions to get the answer to - "What are the most important issues in your life and why aren't you working on them?"). This seems to work fairly well; some answers are very surprising. We also do some more standard exercises. Two of us report feeling 'hot'. and the group wants me to go first as I seem hottest. Hot seat ----------- My issue is that I (#3) feel somehow 'wrong' as a leader in almost any context. I get thrust into leadership roles often but I feel out of place as a leader. These feelings come up with the recent changes to our Tribe. Also they come up when I start to get involved in activism following from my medical issues. At first other members remain unconvinced that I have a real issue. Maybe I just have concerns about the dirty game of politics, the attacks I can expect, the skeletons in my closet that might come out. I share the worst of these skeletons with the Tribe. After some discussion, I state that I accept character assassination happens in game of politics and I accept that price. The problems comes from something more subtle and insidious. I have the knowledge, I have the capacity, I have the arguments, I can make good speeches, I can organize things, I have run voluntary and commercial organizations. Yet I still feel someone illegitimate. During my last Holotropic Breathwork session a few weeks ago a similar thing happens: > So I join my ancient tribe [during a past life within the Breathwork] for the initiation ceremony - blood and pain, ... 3 days alone in the jungle, a test of courage and resourcefulness. I get through it all - it was not that hard - but I still feel not quite like a man. Finally we kick off the hot seat and I quickly come to a scene in junior high school where a bully is punching me in the head and so forth. A friend advises me: keep a low profile, stay in the shadows, don't put yourself out there, be cagey about what your views are, keep your cards close to your chest, don't say anything that will cause offense. We re-enact this and it feels like the same problem, and it feels like this is my current 'solution'. We brainstorm more heartfelt solutions. Sometimes you need to carefully weigh what you say, and to exercise caution: a 5% solution. Overall you need to lead if you want to get things done. I have complete legitimacy to do this, to help myself and others. People want me to lead and to use my abilities. Part of this may stem from being short and easily picked on as a child but this reasoning no longer applies to my current situation. We re-enact and I refuse the old rock and happily accept the new rock. I feel good and positive and happy about this. Thinking about the ancient Tribal scene I now feel thoroughly in place as a an equal warrior and enjoy full participant in the ancient Tribe. During the discussion earlier I relate a situation on a private chat room where I recently put up what seem to me reasonable arguments and get howled down in a barrage of virtue signaling, signals of social conformity etc etc <you are Hitler to even suggest such ideas could be discussed>. I quit the chat room after this happens. Tribe members encourage me to re-enter the chat room and try again. I do this the day after the hot seat and this time, when I share my insights, people accept them with no drama. Otherwise I feel a comfortable legitimacy in many contexts, where I previously do not miss it but I lack it. For example I find myself easily talking to strangers I meet. --- The other person who says he has an issue no longer feels hot so we check out for the night. People make comments about the process and how we can improve, and even these feel very positive. People nod and think about the comments, without seeming defensive. I feel very happy with how the evening goes. |
Thank you for sharing your process and for documenting your meeting. | |||
| Apr 8,
2016 Wants to Know the Correct Way Chief, i [name] is a trader from India, i use EMA crossover for trading commodities and currency futures. i also use ATR for stop loss ,is this a correct way of trend following or i have to develop any other system for trend following. please help me in this regard and also give some knowledge about trend following techniques. |
Thank
you for raising this issue. I gather you wish to know the correct way of trend following. I do not know the correct trading rules for you - any more that I might know the correct way for you to conduct a marriage. You can find trading techniques in books (such as: Trading Systems and Methods by Perry Kaufman) - and you can verify and optimize your system by coding it up and back testing it. You might also consider taking your feelings about <wanting to do things correctly> to Tribe as an entry point.
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| Apr 8,
2016 More On Where the Market "Should" Go Hi Ed ! Thank you for taking the time to share your opinions with me. Yes, I do agree that fundamentals have their risk. But you are absolutely right, The Trend is our friend and I should not let these opinions override my trading. I hope you have been having a great day, |
Thank you for sharing your process. | |||
| Apr 7,
2016 Finding a Piece of Jewelry Chief, During my health problem, which finally last for several years, I am not able to experience some feelings. After I take medication following the recommendation of a psychiatrist I experience a block to contact my <sadness>. It feels horrible, like not being able to breath, like being incarcerated and trying to reach for an object beyond your grasp. Today I think about a girl and start scratching my ear. I find that it is related to <sadness>. As I explore the form I start crying and FINALLY for the first time in three years I make contact with <sadness>. It is thrilling and exhilarating, a beautiful, deep, sweetly bitter feeling. To me, it is like finding a piece of jewelry that I was missing for a long time. Later in the day I feel calm and de-attached to several issues which worry me in the last few days, extraordinarily present and, well, somehow normal, natural. Best regards, |
Thank you for sharing your process. | |||
| Apr 6,
2016 Back to Stocks Ed, I never got the 30m from [Name]. We were misled Its OK as I'm going back to trading stocks what I love and am good at. |
Thank you for sharing your process. | |||
| Apr 5,
2016 Where the Market "Should" Go Hi Ed ! I hope you and the Tribe are well. It has been a while since I've posted so I just wanted to share some interesting data with the Tribe. Simply put, the fundamentals of the S&P 500 are quickly deteriorating yet we are still close to the 2015 highs ! Net Income on a year over year quarterly basis and TTM basis is down and below average with 4Q 2015 contracting 20% year over year. Revenue growth is also contracting on a quarterly Y/Y basis and also raising way below average on a TTM basis. Also, a article published by U.S.A today talks about how 50% of the S&P 500 income is only from 6% of S&P 500 companies. After reading these data points, do you really think the market should be at its current highs? (As of April 5th, 2016) In conclusion, we can thank The Fed for this bubble and the following trend that will result from it! (: |
Thank
you for raising this issue. Fundamental analysis assumes you can understand the intention of an entire system from information you can gather at one node. It also assumes you can arrive at your conclusion before the market discounts it. It also has no inherent method for risk control. By jumping in before the trend starts, you expose yourself to, in this case, shorting into a bull run, running low on cash and confidence, covering during a blowup capitulation by your fellow bears and then watching the market collapse without you. After that, you might experience PTSD (post-traumatic stress syndrome) and other trauma; example: see Jesse Livermore. By the way, if you want another bearish indicators, see the JPY / NZD carry trade - that serves as a proxy for impending business activity. Trend Traders follow the trend and ignore the theories and stories and attending social and personal drama. Trend Traders who observe risk control seem to survive - and, occasionally, to prosper, even while making trades that differ from those that their fundamentalist colleagues make. I wonder what specific plan you have for capitalizing your perceptions - including how to enter and exit the trade - and how much of your equity to risk on your idea - and what to do if you start out with a whipsaw loss.
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| Apr 5,
2016 Kinder and Gentler Hi Chief, My wife recently tells me 3 times that when I talk to my son and to her, my tone is much nicer than before. She feels much better. I also notice my way of talking to my parents changes. Position sizing matters... Thank you again for sharing your wisdom! |
Thank you for sharing your process. | |||
| April
5, 2016 It Finally Fits Hi Ed, The T-Shirt I bought at your 2013 workshop finally fits. I wish you well. Take care warm regards ...
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Thank you for sharing your photo and for your kind wishes. | |||
| Apr 3,
2016 Harvard Study on Happiness Ed, I wonder if you and the readers of "FAQ" would find this as meaningful as I do. It seems to support your teachings of finding "Right Livelihood," and focusing on "The Essential Tribe." Thank you. - - - - - Value love above all else. Don't underestimate the power of love, because it's the key to happiness. Dr. George Vaillant writes that there are two pillars of happiness: "One is love. The other is finding a way of coping with life that does not push love away." "The 75 years and 20 million dollars expended on the Grant Study points … to a straightforward five-word conclusion: 'Happiness is love. Full stop,' " he says. That's right, you heard it straight from the horse's mouth — love is everything. A person can have all the luxuries in the world, but without love, they mean very little. |
Thank you for sharing your insights. | |||
| Apr 2,
2016 Wants Guiding Hand Dear Ed, First I think its amazing that a legend in the markets such as yourself takes the time out to read, reply and help all of these people in issues that go even beyond the markets. I have recently moved to the US from the UK on my own with a few dollars to my name. Both of my parents are incarcerated and I have moved to try and avoid the same fate. Trading is the only thing that has ever interested me, it is the only thing i have ever been able to focus on. I am mesmerized by geopolitical, fundamental and psychological effects on market prices. I came to the US hoping that somehow I would scrape by and eventually break into the hedge fund world despite a lack of experience, lack of proper education and lack of references (I managed to elbow into a prop firm in London for a few months before I left but that is it). While my dreams remain, the more I look into how to break into the industry the more disheartened and afraid I feel. I am worried that I am at a point where if I don’t make it on my first attempt I will fall over the edge and many days I must admit I wonder if it worth it at all. I am currently scraping together enough money to go to a cheap college to get my BA to be able to offer something to a prospective employer. In a perfect world I’d manage to get into an investment bank to learn the operational aspect of the sell side and jump to a hedge fund and grow with them. However, knowing I am going to the cheapest college I can find, I have severe doubts I would get into a tier 1 bank, or a hedge fund, or a top proprietary trading company, and my confidence in myself is waning with each day. I am slowly doubting my entire move to the US but I feel as if I have very few options left to me otherwise. I am willing to work for a wage that would only cover the cheapest apartment’s bills just to be able to show my willingness to outwork anyone else yet I have no idea how I can ever prove this to the right person. I am not sure what I am exactly asking for, but at this point I think I am looking for some sort of direction, a ‘guiding hand’ if you will. You have seen it all and have trained so many amazing traders, so I am hoping I too could get a little advice, maybe some reassurance. Thank you for taking the time out to read this. |
Thank
you for sharing your process - and for acknowledging me and the work of
the Trading Tribe. You might consider re-writing your piece, using positive optimistic sentences to replace ones I indicate with bold text. You might also consider taking your feelings about doing this to Tribe as an entry point.
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| Apr
2, 2016 Wants to Join TT Hello there, I am [Country]-based trader, wanted to join TT. What I need to do further? Regards |
Thank
you for raising this issue. You may join or start a Trading Tribe in your area. For more information see Resources, above. The TT (dis-) organization has one employee (me) who maintains this blog and who occasionally hosts Workshops. TT neither accepts, rejects or keeps track of members. Tribes appear and disappear at the discretion of self-appointing Tribe leaders. Tribe members may share their experiences through this (FAQ) forum. TT does not assess fees or taxes and does not invent regulations or rules to interfere with how people wish to run their own lives. So far, neither major political party shows much interest in adopting any of these principles as methods for governance.
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| Apr
2, 2016 Intuition / Mechanical Hi, Ed! I have a simple question regarding how to operate when making a decision in the markets: When you make a decision in the markets, how big a role do your intuition and experience play, and how much is a pure mechanical reaction following your trading system? |
Thank
you for raising this issue. Some traders implement automatic order generation, order entry and communication confirmation. Others run on a seat-of-the-pants method. You might also note that a fully automatic system follows from the trader's deep feelings that he wants to trade that way - while the fully intuitive system has some systematic and consistent personality characteristics. Thus automatic and intuitive trading both contain elements of each other. |
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| Apr
1, 2016 Orders the Book Hi Ed, I didn't mean to send the previous email. I have purchased the book and plan to send you a book report and summary when I finish. I wonder if you prefer the report in SVO-p. |
Thank you for ordering The Science of Trust by Gottman - and for wondering about my preferences. | |||
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