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Ed
Seykota's FAQ
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FAQ November 11-20, 2015 <-- back | down | forward --> |
| Contributors Say | Ed Says |
| Nov 19, 2015 Clutter Dear Ed, As far as I recall, Ed says all feelings have positive intentions. I have been clearing my office clutter since many days. I feel good about it. I feel within next few days, in the non existent future, I will not have much clutter. So I am in a position now to gain more clarity. I buy a book Make the best out of the rest of your life. I nowadays find myself having much more spare time. I remark this to a dear friend. He says clear clutter from mind also! I feel pleasantly surprised by his remark. I remember your I = R. I thank him. I thank you. I hate receiving bills. This is due to poverty seen in the childhood. To avoid feeling these I usually pay off expenses in advance, though this is very irrational. May be I am in some ways behaving like Jesse L. I feel better and secured by paying off these expenses. Sending one such advance paid membership through 31-Jul-2031. |
Thank you for sharing your process. |
| Nov 18, 2015 Showing Up Hi Ed. Thank you for your email. I receive your email on November 6, the night before I get married. Your email brought a smile to my face that's for sure. One of my favorite athletes of all time is Jerry Rice. He never took plays off. He didn't run away from interviews after poor performances or losses, but instead took responsibility for himself. I loved watching him and Joe Montana dominate teams throughout the 80s and 90s. My favorite Jerry Rice story is from Steve Young starting at the 7:20 mark. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0EbD8KIV-uI Also, thank you for showing up every day on FAQ and for expressing how you felt about my trading performance on the phone a couple of years ago. I recall you saying you had a few systems that were performing a bit better and that you'd hate to take money out to invest with me. Oh man that fired me up. It also made me realize that I had a lot more room for improvement. That conversation reminded me of many conversations I've had with my dad about improving my baseball pitching skills. I want to be the consummate pro; the guy who shows up for his teammates no matter what; the guy who provides stability when things get rough. I believe this is my calling. Sending out performance emails on time, in a consistent manner, comes with the territory if I want to actualize my calling. Good luck with your upcoming event with Charles Poliquin. |
Thank you for sharing your process and your insights. |
| Nov 17, 2015 Wants to Change his Trading Style Hello Mr. Seykota, ... I realize that you have likely received these same types of questions I am about to ask from thousands of people over the years, and I apologize for any annoyance that they may cause. I understand if you are too busy or not interested in responding. 1) I have blown out my futures trading account three times since starting five years ago (trading intraday opening range breakouts), despite devoting significant time in researching a trading plan. You famously once said “win or lose, everyone gets what they want out of the market.” With the development of algorithmic trading, do you still feel that small retail trader without a high-frequency trading system can still achieve anything that resembles the success that you have had in the futures markets? 2) You have also once said that “a losing trader can do little to transform himself into a winning trader. A losing trader is not going to want to transform himself. That’s the kind of thing winning traders do.” I want to become a winning trader. Can you tell me what you would recommend I do to become successful? I would say my biggest mistakes while trading are: -taking too large of positions because I want to get rich yesterday -refusing to accept losing positions and overtrading as a result -failure to stick to a plan Thank you for taking the time to read this. If you ever need someone to test any trading ideas for you, please let me know as I am good with Excel. With thanks and best regards, |
Thank you for sharing your process. Your analysis of your trading seems consistent with your results. If you want to change your deep tendencies, you can force yourself to follow a winning plan - and then take the feelings that come up during this process to Tribe, as entry points. |
| Nov 17, 2015 Starting a Tribe Hello Ed, I want to thank you for all that you have done and continue to do. I count you as a friend even though we have spoken in years. I miss the time when I was attending TT at your house in Austin. I hope to visit you in Puerto Rico someday for some TT event. I feel very anxious as I write this to FAQ. I am in process of starting a Trading Tribe, since there is not one very close. I will notify you of the dates when I have them firm. I hope that you might attend a session or two. My journey along the Trading Tribe process has been a rough one. I used to believe that I was in control of my emotions fully. It is due to my attending the workshop and subsequent meetings that I learned differently. I have learned a few things about myself and I have made some modest progress in my life since I was kicked out of the Austin Tribe. I know that this was done for my benefit. Sometimes learning is painful. This drama is very typical of me. I come very close to achieving a major goal, and I subsequently sabotage myself. This drama has been a large part of the difficulty in my life. I have a good idea of where this drama originates from, but I feel a need to take it to a Tribe. The emotions that I have been dealing with due to this screw up mine have kept me from progressing in many areas of my life. The dramas that I have created have prevented me from starting a fund. I finally have a strategy that I feel comfortable with. I have some back testing to finish with it, but I am pleased with its performance over a 20 year back test. I am still also doing the gut check on the system as well. I see that you will be speaking just a few hours from me this weekend. I have already made plans for family trip that day, so I will not be attending. If you have any free time I would love share meal with you, while you are in the Dallas. I miss our conversations over breakfast. Please call me at XXX-XXX-XXXX. I will nail down some the dates for a Trading Tribe in [City]. I hope you can visit. If you do, I have a place for you to stay. Sincerely, |
Thank you for sharing your process. |
| Nov 17, 2015 Green Trader Hi Ed, Quite excited to be emailing a market wizard! I'm a 'green' trader from Australia - a mum to a young family with an uncommon (in my peers) attraction to markets. I hope that you might delight me by reading and responding to this question. I am trying to develop a system to trade fx and am trying to test it with software called Tradesim (I use metastock). It is showing really really good performance on the short side but not so on the long side. I am perplexed because my long and short triggers, entry prices and stops all mirror each other and the data log for short and long positions matches what I expect from my charts perfectly, eg longs enter when opposing pair has a short entry and the logged entry and exit prices are executing in the trade log perfectly. So when I test over two mirrored pairs I expected profits/losses to cancel each other out - but they don’t. Further when I manually calculate my R return on the data values for mirrored trades- I see that for the same trade on a mirror (opposite) pair that the long trade always outperforms the short trade. This is a mathematical concept I figure, that a trend in the long direction moves from a low base, thereby resulting in a larger % gain than a short trade. My code below if you are interested but my question remains: have you noted this phenomenon in fx trading (or backtesting) of mirror image pairs? Can you proffer some explanation to help me understand the difference. In anticipation of a reply... Oh and thanks for the whipsaw song - hilarious! Regards |
Thank you for raising this issue. In bear markets, systems that go short tend to do better than systems that go long. You might consider extending your back test over several market cycles. |
| Nov 16, 2015 Christmas Tree Hi, This weekend I hangout with my friends family. I find lots of entry point on myself. If each entry point is like a Christmas light, I find myself as bright as a Christmas tree. Thanks, |
Thank you for sharing your process. |
| Nov 16, 2015 Wants a Premium Fred Hi Chief, I have friend family come over and I'm taking them to sightseeing around here. I notice when I feel stress, nervous I lose touch with feelings. I like them and want to create rapport with them and want them to have a good time. But I often forget to make it priority to ask them how they feel and share my feelings. They have been here two days and I feel I lost the first round. I feel unhappy about myself for not applying TTP as well as I expect. I feel I want to be someone like you, not as your wealth or social status or even you success. It's your way of being a person I strive to copy and paste. I want to own a premium Fred as good as yours. It's not over yet, I want to pick it up in the rest of the test drive. Thanks, |
Thank you for sharing your process. |
| Nov 16, 2015 Wants to Break In Hello Ed, I am looking to become more involved, and precise in investment management. I am having difficulty breaking into this industry around my area and wanted to see if you have any advice. I have a few years of financial / forecasting analysis but I would like to become more involved with the equities market. I am willing to put in long hours to get a better understanding of what it takes to have a better sense of trading and investing. What are your thoughts on going back to school for an MBA to make myself more marketable for an investment analyst position? Or should I try to get more experience instead of going back to school? I also wanted to ask if you hold training sessions for those interested in improving their performance? Any advice and information would be appreciated. Thank you and take care. |
Thank you for raising this issue. You might consider clarifying what you mean by "become more involved with the equity market." In this connection, you might consider taking your feelings about <breaking in> to Tribe as an entry point. |
| Nov 15, 2015 TTP Workshop Ed, When is the next Workshop? |
Thank you for raising this issue. I plan to present a Workshop sometime during 2016. |
| Nov 15, 2015 Helping One Family Dear Ed, Your replies in a clear way are helping me what I want to do in future. Looking at what is happening by fanatics, world over, I have decided to devote my resources to help those families who are affected by what happens on my country's border. I have already started helping one such family. Hope that in the non existent future, I am in a position to help more. Thanks for bringing in this particular clarity. Hugs again ... |
Thank you for sharing your process. |
| Nov 14, 2015 TTP Workshop Ed, I’m a friend of [Name] and wonder if you have a workshop planned for 2015 or 16? I’m in San Francisco, and would love to learn from you. BTW, I’m sure you know that Warren passed away about a year ago. Thanks, |
Thank you for raising this issue. I sense some demand showing up - so I expect to present another Workshop, likely during 2016. |
| Nov 13, 2015 Stopping Out of a Relationship Dear Ed, I feel close to the stop-loss point in my relationship with my wife. I want to thrive and experience deep happiness in my personal life. Instead, most of my experience revolves around pain, loneliness and frustration. The thought of living alone feels like bliss. My wife and I both engineer and create drama in each other's lives...just like the examples you quote about people who co-opt one other to press each other's buttons. I don't like the feeling of living with my wife any more. With love and regards, Your student |
Thank you for raising this issue. In the TTP model, you commit to doing whatever your partner wants - and then grow by working through whatever issues arise. When your partner no longer has willingness to proceed with this model, you might consider continuing with someone else. You might consider establishing rapport with your wife and sharing your feelings and concerns openly and from your heart. You might then come to know her feelings and her willingness to proceed. Anything else might simply turn out as an extension of various dramas that engage the relationship itself as a hostage. |
| Nov 13, 2015 Momentum Stocks Hi Ed, I can't work this bit out. Using calculus you came with the optimal position sizing algorythem at 25% of equity. So that's a 4 stock portfolio? Seems very concentrated? But, then you say it's prudent to only bet 2% on each trade. Those two statements don't seem to go together? Am I missing something? Can you explain this? Appreciated if you could. Merry Christmas |
Thank you for raising this issue. The math assumes one trade at a time, with 25% bet size. |
| Nov 12, 2015 Sharon Isbin on Guitar (Video) Ed, You might like this. |
Thank you for sharing the link. |
| Nov 12, 2015 Peanut Butter Vanilla Soymilk Hi, Mr. Seykota, This morning, I happend to mix a spoon of "superchunk peanut butter" with some "vanilla soymilk", and then the peanut butter tastes spicy. I guess milk may also do the job. Tell me what kind of flavor you taste if you wanan try. Best Wishes |
Thank you for extending me the invitation. Hmmm ... I get an agile clam flavor, young and charmingly over bold with tannins, a subtle hint of red Kryptonite - it might go well with Texas roadkill. |
| Nov
12, 2015 One Size Fits All Ed, Any particular trading system you can recommend that can work with all markets? |
Thank
you for raising this issue. Every system works with every market - in the sense that you always get some or another result. If you want to learn more about the results you might expect applying different kinds of systems to different kinds of markets, you might consider conducting your own back tests. |
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