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Aug 01 - 14, 2005


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(Quotes from Ed in Red)


Sun, 14 Aug 2005


Fundamentalist Wins Acceptance

see: Previous

Dear Mr. Seykota:

It has just come to my attention that on 14 Apr 2003 you referred to a paper by
[Name] and myself in April, 2003.

I would like to thank you for using our work as an example and I take this opportunity
to inform you that this paper has recently been accepted for publication in "Econometric Theory".

With best regards,

Hmmm ... perhaps your appearance in FAQ is the fundamental "cause" of your success.


After all, it passes two important tests:


1. Your appearance on FAQ precedes your acceptance.


2. Your appearance on FAQ occurs once and your acceptance occurs once; thus, FAQ appearance correlates with acceptance in 100% of cases.

Sat, 13 Aug 2005


TTP Contradiction

Dear Chief Seykota,


By way of introduction, I am a writer and currently inactive trader, beginning participation in the [City] chapter TTP.

As a newcomer -- having only attended one meeting so far -- I'm sensitive to not doing or saying anything to derail the process.

While brushing up on the TTP process this morning, I ran across an apparent contradiction on your Web site:

Ed Writes:

Trading Tribe Member Philosophy

I use intentional language:
- No Direct Questions, especially "Why?"

Example of The Trading Tribe Process:

Art is on the hot seat and Bill and Carl are facilitating.

- Bill: OK, great, what physical feeling do you have. [?]

- Bill: So I wonder how you feel about buying breakouts. [?]

"What physical feeling do you have. [?]" ...strikes me as a fairly direct question.

I do not understand the distinction. Will you please clarify?

Good Catch.


The Sharing Feelings form:


I wonder how you feel.


is more consistent with TTP than the Demanding Information form:


What feeling do you have?


The former tends to keep the sender in his head, the latter to move him into his forms.


In general, if the receivers intend to serve the sender in experiencing his feelings, they find a way to do so.


Sometimes, during the early phases of a process, direct questions can provoke a reticent sender into displaying feelings.


Once forms present, however, we quickly abandon the use of questions and shift to encouragement, validation and acknowledgment.




Sometimes Questions

can feel a bit prickly


and draw the sender

out of process.


Clip: http://www.ainc-inac.gc.ca/


Fri, 12 Aug 2005


TT Book - Page Sequence

Hi Ed, I believe in your book Page 149 could be followed by Page 151 and page 148 to be followed by Page 150. I understand the book is written in layers and I would appreciate clarity in this matter.

Page 149 starts with the Sender's Original View. 


Page 150 describes the Encouragement Process, Receiver Check-Outs and Sender Check-Out. 


Page 151 continues with the Sender's New View at the end of the process and again later that night.


TTP is a recursive process and the reading the Trading Tribe Book likely has the same property.

Thu, 11 Aug 2005


$5,000 Trading Account

Hello Ed,

My equity is $5000, I am trading 0.1 lots and defining risk as 2% ($100) of equity, I have two problems:

1- Can’t diversify because equity doesn’t allow more.

2- Can't reduce position size (risk) in parallel with equity, because there isn’t a contract size less than 0.1 lot, this means that equity can lose 10% while losses will remain 2% of my starting equity.

I may not be able to get more equity to diversify, you think I keep trading or stop until I gather equity to diversify?

Say you want to buy a car and only have a few dollars.


I wonder if you:


A) go out and purchase something in your budget, like a spare tire (or)


B) wait until you can afford to buy a whole car.



Plan A:

Drive This Around for a While


Plan B:

Save up and buy a whole car.











Plan C:

Develop a trading system

and attract capital.



Clip: http://www.erareplicas.com/


Thu, 11 Aug 2005


Drumming Cheers People Up


Since reading your book, The Trading Tribe, we have introduced the drum session into our evening. Drums start our meeting. We also take the drumming into the hot seat session when we are cheering people up.


Drumming creates a rhythm in our session that allows many of us to reach a deeper state of feeling and hold on longer. A trend channel is created by the rhythm. My most pronounced feeling (as I generally experience many some I can conceptualize and most which I cannot) today was to experience the feeling of “awkwardness”.


I must have looked plenty awkward contorting on the hot seat, convulsing like an electro-shocked person, lying on the floor and convulsing some more, and generally feeling incredibly good sensations throughout my body.


Awkwardness has a positive intention, and tonight it felt awesome to feel awkward. The tingling feeling moves through my body, four hours since TTP ended.

Our Tribe group has evolved since I joined in January 2004. We encourage Pollination with other groups and correspond in emails and by the phone.


For me, a lot changed when we embraced the cheering up process, picking up on physical gestures and encouraging and validating those gestures relentlessly.


Also, when I consciously started welcoming and encouraging the feeling as soon as it presented itself inside my body (an internal facilitator so to speak) TTP became more intense for me.


Also, I now regularly go into a sending state while others are on the hot seat and I am receiving.


I do not sacrifice receiving, but once in a while what I receive is so strong I naturally capitalize on it and that puts me in a hot seat state of sending.

Anyways, it has been two sessions in a row that I find myself in a very deep hallucinogenic state that made me feel very high in my head and body.


Incredibly good sensations undulate through my body and were/are most pronounced in my reproductive organs, even as I sit here and type to you many hours later. Indeed the sex tonight will be good, the drugs were natural endorphins produced from a hot seat, and the drumming is our form of rock n’ roll.

Intention for the process to work is essential; following any one technique is not.


TTP affords the process manager considerable latitude in technique.


If you carry an intention to "cheer up" the sender, then you may co-incidentally invalidate his gloom and prevent him from experiencing it.


Sending and receiving are not states as much as tasks.  The receivers' task is to encourage the sender to experience his feelings. 


In TTP, the receivers stay on task  and support the sender in sending.  They do not pop over into being other senders.


Your comment that "sex will be good" indicates future orientation.


You might consider keeping your lovemaking in the now - or perhaps sharing your unwillingness to do so with your partner.




Lovemaking and TTP

both seem to work better


when you stay in the now

and stay on task

with your partner.


Clip: http://www.minibite.com/


Thu, 11 Aug 2005


Snapshot Complete

I am very happy to report to you today that I have achieved my snapshot.

Part 1 of my snapshot was living at Noosa on the Sunshine Coast in Queensland. I have recently signed a 12 month lease on a fantastic home at Noosa overlooking the beach .

Part 2 of my snapshot was “enjoying the now”. This I have accomplished which I thought would take many years. Fortunately for me through the learning I did at the Reno Workshop and the support from you who supported me, a lot of work on myself, a great TTP tribe in Sydney, and the discovery of a fantastic book “The Power of Now” by Eckhart Tolle, I am now free of many emotions that previously held me back in life and trading and kept me out of the present.

I want to thank you all very much for supporting me in my snapshot and Ed for all the effort you have put into the TTP and your generosity with your knowledge in your workshops and writings. Since you published your book our group has really come together.

Kindest Regards



Snapshot of Snapshot


Thank you for inspiring others by sharing your success story.

Wed, 10 Aug 2005


Wants to Attend Breathwork

Dear Ed,

I want let you know that we now have 4 members in our Tribe. We have meetings every month since May.

Thanks for everything.

I will do everything to be in the next Breathwork.


Wed, 10 Aug 2005


TTP By The Book

Dear Ed,

[Our] Tribe has 4 meetings since the last check-in. We are meeting weekly now. Two meetings are spent discussing your book and doing some of the workbook exercises.


The meeting a month ago is cut short due to a sleepy sender. He has judges going on and at the time I do not know how to handle them, and he is truly sleep deprived. I receive him the best I can and finally decide in the interest of (driving) safety to end the meeting and let him go home and go to bed.

His starting issue has to do with procrastination, but during the process an unpleasant feeling in his chest becomes "just coolness" with a relaxed sweep of his hand. He tells me at the next meeting that there has been a beneficial shift for him in how he handles sleepiness!

Before he said he would press on with whatever he is doing and be grouchy and disagreeable - and unproductive. The day before he gets sleepy in the evening but instead of pressing on, takes a nap instead; rejoining his family for a nice evening later. If the trend is sleep, go with the trend!

Our last meeting is a breakthrough for both of us. We both successfully use the technique in your book to "Honor the Judge".


Exactly right out of the book and it works powerfully. We also both successfully execute the Reintegration Process. This is the first time we attempt it. My hotseat session lasts only about 30-40 minutes, forms, judges, reintegration - all of it. The issue that I take to the hotseat is a fear of, attitudes about and reluctance to actually mastering C++ and writing and coding my own Trading System. I am immediately hit with anxiety and start jumping around in my chair just looking at my notes before we formally start the process. The early part of the process has a lot of body movements and anxiety for me.

I ask the receiver to keep triggering me (when the emotions and forms fade) by giving me a "lecture" on how I was going to have to do all this code writing - by myself - no riding anybody else, etc. And also he throws in what a bitch it is, learning a bunch of stuff you will never use! (Receiver has his own attitudes about C++) We are both cracking up as I go through all the stuff that comes up. At times, it is unpleasant and funny almost simultaneously or in very rapid sequence. Some weird body sensations just flash through my abdomen and chest. Receiver says "good, do more of that, feel that more" -- but it is gone.

Not all of this hotseat is pleasant or easy and parts of it I forget for a few days and am still unconscious about many details. I become nauseous early on and think I might need a barf bag. As part of a judge (I think) I have this awful "thing" in my throat happen. My throat is dried up, glued shut, paralyzed. I cannot talk. I flail around trying to get relief or speak. This throat thing repeats at least once. I also remember a really bad feeling in my abdomen - not nausea. The judge on it is sweeping my hands up from the belly and out the mouth. I try to gag and finally make sounds to expel whatever it is and end by shouting something like "get out", "go" over and over with the sweeping. I remember eventually enjoying the hand sweeping and shouting.

At the end of the reintegration, receiver asks how I feel about learning C++ and I say "Well I can take a class at (local university)" Duh! Never occurred to me before. I still feel some anxiety and doubt about learning C++ 2 days after the process. Yesterday I read up on the college C++ class, check the website of the Computer Science department, and the student's C. Sci. club.


I feel empowered. There are lots of ways we can do this. Hire a tutor to help us learn the language and write some beginning programs we need simultaneously. Yesterday I also read some of a C++ book at the local library. There is shift in me - to calmness, confidence, ok-ness as I look over the material.

Earlier at that same meeting, my partner hot-seated some criticisms he had of himself as a tribe member and an inability or unwillingness to let go and be demonstrative on the hotseat. He had really nice breakthrough on all of it demonstrating a stack of judges (as body movements) and eventually enjoying and integrating every one. Honoring the Judge was the key to success.

Thank you Ed.

Thank you for inspiring others by sharing your success story.




Finding the Happy Judge


releases the K-not



Clip: http://www.clipsahoy.com/



Wed, 10 Aug 2005


In the Flow / Receiving the Flow




In this business you have to learn to tolerate ambiguity and uncertainty. - Don Worden,

I achieve this (learning) by practicing TTP (celebrating those feelings) at my tribe and reading the FAQ's.

Thank you Ed for what you do for the tribe community, sharing your insight and your experience of the markets.


The more I trade with the flow the more I receive “flow of money” from my trading and from my new clients.

In TTP we do not strive to tolerate uncertainty - we strive to assimilate its positive intention.




Certainty / Uncertainty


are names for the trust or doubt

we feel about our predictions.


In 1763 Thomas Bayes, an English clergyman and mathematician, proposes Bayes' Theorem.


His theorem provides a method to calculate, from historical trials, the probability or likelihood of an occurrence in future trials.


People with K-nots about trust and doubt tend to dwell on trying to assess the probabilities of individual events and trying to predict the future.


When people work through these k-nots, they tend to lose interest in individual events and gain interest in building and operating a system that averages out profitably in the long-term.


Clip: http://www.mharris.eurobell.co.uk/


Wed, 10 Aug 2005


Getting on the Right Side

by Buying Highs

Mr. Seykota,

First, I came across a few of your musical performance with the banjo. It was quite entertaining, you sure have the rhythm. I bought an acoustic guitar myself for when my trading will be on auto-pilot, I can spend time learning the craft. I think everyone should master an instrument in their lifetime.

Second, I am in the process of designing a trend following system for stocks. I have a small account so not yet sufficiently capitalized for futures.


I read and took your suggestion about buying historical highs. I realized I had spent a lot of time fiddling with entry parameters only to realize how futile it was. By buying historical highs, I am 100% on the right side of the trend, going with the current, end of story. I do not fear buying historical high since I have tight risk management. I determine the position size based on my stop placement. I keep getting back in even after being stopped if the stock makes new highs. If the trade goes my way I exit on price crossing below a 40 days MA. I only trade liquid stocks.

Now I have launched my trading system a month ago and so far so good. Been stopped a few times but got a decent trend (SNMX). At first glance, can you tell me if my system stand a chance or is it flawed?

Your wisdom is mostly appreciated

P.S. Please forgive my grammatical errors as English isn't my first language but it's improving everyday.


Tue, 09 Aug 2005


TTP Starting to Make Sense

Chief Ed,

One of the things I come to understand is the essential need to describe and define trading and other processes such that they can be reduced to computer code.


I notice that as I describe and define high-level processes, certain other supporting processes, at a lower level, become a focus of attention. These lower level processes also require study, description and definition.

For example when describing and defining a trading system such that it can be reduced to computer code, optimal bet size becomes evident.


Knowing optimal bet size by optimizing on the system variable Expectation is not quite the same as having the optimal psychology to execute these optimal-sized bets.


I notice the optimal bet size increases volatility in results. I notice that accepting the increased volatility created by optimizing bet size for Expectation is not always a simple matter ... in terms of psychology.


I realize that now I must study, describe, develop and refine my "psychological system" since it provides 100% of any underlying support for ability to actually execute on optimal-bet sized trades.

I notice that the underlying psychological support for placing optimal-size bets has everything to do with actualizing trading system profitability.

I get to this point and I realize the pivotal role of philosophy, not just in trade execution, but in an overall ability to execute on living -- generally.


As I think about this, concepts and associated words and word definitions such as integrity, clarity, purpose, harmony, flow and integration come to my attention.


It all begins to make sense as I realize how specific TTP techniques such as SVO-p support and encourage a system of thought aimed towards a philosophy of clarity, integrity and integration.

While I do not accept everything she defines in her philosophy, I am challenged by, and gain new appreciation of, the essay:

"Philosophy: Who Needs It?" by Ayn Rand.


In light of re-reading the essay, I also gain a new appreciation for TTP, the integrated result of a life's work. I notice TTP is a work in progress, one that relentlessly aims toward a more and more complete philosophy of clarity, integrity, integration and action.

Thank you for inspiring others by sharing your process.

Tue, 9 Aug 2005


Competition Promotes

Public School Reform


There's an interesting phenomenon taking place at a west Phoenix elementary school.

It's called the Pride Program, and it's giving sixth-graders challenging courses in reading, writing, and arithmetic.


School administrators are implementing the back-to-basics program to lure students to Cartwright Elementary, which has lost more than 1,200 students to area charter and private schools. Martha Garcia, president of the school's governing board, says the school is "offering so much more now than before that we can attract some of those students we lost."


The phenomenon of competition from alternative schools forcing traditional schools to focus on providing a high quality education is not isolated to west Phoenix. It's also happening in other areas of the nation that are giving parents school choice.

And it's getting results. Harvard researcher Carolyn Hoxby has established that student test scores in public schools facing competition have risen, often by up to eight or more national percentile points in just one year.


That's a powerful trend that could turn Cartwright Elementary students into real success stories.


Read the Arizona Republic news story:





Tue, 9 Aug 2005



You are hereby declared One Who Never Quits. Your persistence, determination, and endurance are inspirational because:

regardless of being ignrant to some of my emails, you are a good friend, jsut want to say i am understanding.


Tue, 9 Aug 2005



Chief !

Recently traversing the American southwest, I passed through Navajo country. I took the opportunity to increase my knowledge of their native stories and came across this. Remind you of anyone?

"There is no single label which can contain Coyote in a neat and controllable scholarly category. Coyote is too much for academic systems, too lively and too restless to submit to analytic scalpels. The most a commentator can inflict on this archaic all-person is to recognize him as such a one and to construct a larger name for him, one which identifies most status levels over which he is said to have roamed ...

"Coyote appears at many status levels, disappears as readily as he appears, roams, tumbles, slides, and skips from one level to another. At either side the diameter of his realm does not end because of some inherent limitation in Coyote ... human storytellers and listeners, writers and readers, reach their wits' end. Nevertheless, within the limits of all conceivable human possibilities - as does the human mind - Coyote roams the landscape, the waterfront, the underworld, and the sky."

-- from Karl W. Luckeet's introduction to Father Berard Haile's translation of Navajo Coyote Tales, Bison Books

The  Coyote seems similar to a good receiver, also to the markets.




The Coyote

has a reputation for being

crafty, sly and wily


except, of course,

when the Roadrunner is around



Clip: http://oseb79.free.fr/images/



Tue, 9 Aug 2005


Junk Mail from TT Directory Site

Dear Sir:

Please remove my email address from the Caracas Trading Tribe.

For your information, your website is data-mined by fraudsters running the Nigerian Scam and others. I receive scam emails daily.

We are not progressing in the local tribe membership.


Your listing no longer appears. 


Some Tribe Leaders use a separate email address for Tribe business..


See San Diego Tribe, below.

Tue, 9 Aug 2005


Continuous Futures


I am reading the Trading System Project section of your site and I have a question:

When I create the continuous contract and I add the total sum of all rolls (approximately 400 points in your example) to every data point, in order to make the last trading day equal to the last trading day of the most active contract, do I still create a valid continuous contract for my back-testing?

Thank you.

The Panama Canal features a system of locks that float ships up or down so they can travel between the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans.


The Panama Method of creating a continuous contract floats contracts up or down so that they can splice together without a seam.


You can  begin splicing with the first contract (First True Method), or with the last contract (Last True Method).


Unless your trading system uses the absolute value of the contract, the choice of First True or Last True makes little difference.



The Panama Canal


raises and lowers ships

by a system of locks.


Clip: http://www.sgj.us/photos2/


Mon, 8 Aug 2005



see July 26, 2005

Dear Ed,

Sorry for not being clear on the definition of opportunity. I think of it as the number of trends (as one defines) that appears in the time frame (that one chooses).


Therefore, if we look at a moving average crossover system for the last ten years, the longer the look-back period I use, the bigger the trend (in magnitude) I can find, but also the smaller the number of those trends that fit the definition. In other words, I may have 10 trades using a 200-day average, but perhaps 30 trades if I use a 50-day average. The "10" and the "30" is what I have in mind when I say opportunity (I guess some use frequency?).

I find your comment very interesting and would like to learn more.


Ed Says: If opportunity  is a relative of probability, you might be employing a term fundamental analysts use that alludes to the non-existing future.


Can you please elaborate how probability is a part of the fundamentalists' terms? Don't we all use probability in position sizing calculations - such as Kelley's formula or even your risk management article - and employ terms such as "expected value"?

Thank you very much for the lessons you generously give through the answers in all my questions. I truly appreciate it.

A long-term trading system typically generates fewer trades than a short-term trading system.


An opportunity is an event plus an expectation of a favorable outcome.


Your choice of the word opportunity to characterize trades indicates an expectation of winning, likely also an attachment to being right. 


These forms generally associate with fundamental analysis.


Trend Traders get a signal and pull the trigger without regard to the result of any individual trade.


Summing over many trades, you can derive an aggregate expectation for system profitability.


For example, if you flip a coin a hundred times you can expect to get somewhere between 40 and 60 heads.


Expectation is a property of aggregate trials, not an indication of the outcome of any individual trial.




Raindrops, as individuals,

defy prediction.


By aggregating raindrops,

we can compute historical averages

such as inches of rainfall per year.


While historical averages

may indicate overall rainfall,

they do not predict the arrival

of any one raindrop.


Clip: http://www.praktica-users.com/


Mon, 8 Aug 2005


Seeing Your Own Reflection

See: Tue, 26 Jul 2005


Ed says: When You Can Play a Game and not see your own reflection, you are at the zero point.

This is very interesting and can you please elaborate more? What does it mean by not seeing your own reflections?


My understanding of zero point is that moment where you're so into the process that you're just completely in it, somewhat like what they call "in the zone" in sports.

How does it then relate to seeing your own reflection?

When you trade at the Zero Point, you do so without responding to your own hopes, fears, expectations and other emotions about the trade. 


You operate the system, invisibly, without seeing yourself.




A Livestock Trader

at the Zero Point


sees this.


Clip: http://www.aspencountry.com/



Mon, 8 Aug 2005


TTP By The Book

Dear Ed,

Our new Tribe has had 4 meetings since the last check-in. We are meeting weekly now. Two meetings were spent discussing your book and doing some of the workbook exercises.


he meeting a month ago was cut short due to a sleepy sender. He had judges going on and at the time I did not know how to handle them, and he was truly sleep deprived.


I received him the best I could and finally decided in the interest of safety to end the meeting and let him go home and go to bed.


His starting issue had to do with procrastination, but he told me at the next meeting that there had been a beneficial shift for him in how he handled sleepiness!

Before he said he would press on with whatever he was doing and be grouchy and disagreeable - and unproductive. The day before he had gotten sleepy in the evening but instead of pressing on, went and took a nap instead; rejoining his family for a nice evening later. If the trend is sleep, go with the trend!

Our last meeting was a breakthrough for both of us. We both successfully used the technique in your book to "Honor the Judge".


Exactly right out of the book and it worked powerfully. We also both successfully executed the Reintegration Process.


This was the first time we had attempted it. My hotseat session lasted only about 30-40 minutes, forms, judges, reintegration - all of it.


I felt out of it after the process for a few minutes but soon was feeling energized, calm and confident. The issue that I took to the hotseat had to do with fear of, attitudes about and reluctance to actually mastering C++ and writing and coding my own Trading System.


I asked the receiver to keep triggering me by giving me a "lecture" on how I was going to have to do all this - by myself - no riding anybody else. And also he threw in what a bitch it was! We were both cracking up as I went through all the stuff that came up. It was unpleasant and funny almost simultaneously or in very rapid sequence. Some body sensations would just flash through my body. Receiver would say "good, do more of that, feel that more" -- but it would be gone.

Earlier, my partner hot-seated some criticisms he had of himself as a tribe member and an inability or unwillingness to let go and be demonstrative on the hotseat. He had really nice breakthroughs on all of it demonstrating a stack of judges (as body movements) and eventually enjoying and integrating every one.

Honoring the Judge was the key to success.

We meet again tomorrow night. Thank you Ed.

Thank you for inspiring others by sharing your process.



Mon, 8 Aug 2005


Take Big Profits Or No Profits At All

Hello Ed,

A trading system may pyramid on intervals when the price moves in one of two directions; I find that one may stop each position separately without exiting the whole line of positions.

By not exiting the whole line of positions; this allows for more profits to accumulate in case a trend happens. In case a trend doesn’t happen, open positions would close at their stops.

This means that one may not take small profits if a reversal happens, one would close all open positions only at their stops; this loss is the price for keeping the whole line of positions open when a big trend happens.

Now of course taking profits would also be related to you profit / loss ratio, which means that sometimes you would suffer big losses along the way, that when big profits come in they would only approximately cover the big losses, at that point its good to break-even or to give it another chance by placing the exit below the break-even point.

All theories seem to work pretty well, at least in theory.


You might like to provide some concrete test results to show how your principles improve system test results.




Concrete Theory



Clip: http://www.precast.org/



Mon, 8 Aug 2005


Wants to Visit

My wife and I will be vacationing in North Shore Tahoe August 26-30. I'd like to meet you, buy you a cup of coffee, and thank you for the time you spend helping others achieve their dreams.

Thank you for your support.  I'm not much of a coffee drinker.


I like to ride my bicycle & play music. I wonder if you might consider these activities instead.

Mon, 8 Aug 2005


System Tests

To fulfill my commitment to my fellow breathers, I have attached back-tested results of strategies for the instruments I intend to trade. This is an ongoing R&D effort for me. This is the most recent data for a selected number of strategies out of a number of strategies I have tested. I still need to incorporate position sizing and optimize stop (and trailing stop) limits. Any comments are welcome.

You might be able to enhance your report by providing some detail.

In particular you might consider:

Defining the system you use.

Demonstrating how your system generates some trades.

Demonstrating how you derive your tabular results from those trades.

Explaining how you are able to get any results at all without some form of position sizing and stop placement.


See Trading System Project (above) for more.

Sun, 7 Aug 2005


Continuous Contracts


I ponder your recent notes on continuous contracts for a couple of days now, and I have some thoughts.

I notice that you examine the type of continuous contract that I think of as forward-adjusted. That is, you splice the expiring contract month to the new month by adjusting the prices of the new month contract to close the gap representing the cost-of-carry (and other differences) between the contracts.

Another widely used way to create a continuous contract is by the back-adjusting method. It is the same as forward adjusting except the expiring month prices are adjusted (up for contango markets, down for backwardation markets) to bring them in line with the new front contract.

An experiment shows that each method produces the same kind of downward
bias on a long term chart that you note. This is logical since each method removes the spread between the spliced contracts upon each contract roll. The main difference is that when you back-adjust recent prices match the actual futures contract price, and when you forward-adjust the earliest part of the continuous series matches the historical contract price.

The question of splicing method aside, one question to ask is: "Does the adjusted series show a downward bias, or does the non-adjusted series show an upward bias in comparison to what a trader would actually make trading an outright futures position?"

It seems that if the adjusted series has a downward bias due to eliminating price differences that a trader cannot capitalize on, that series is more representative of the actual market experience of a trader than a non-adjusted series.


The question I don't resolve yet is whether a trader can or cannot capitalize on the spread between the contract months with an outright (non-spread) futures position.

If a trader can profit by the spread only by putting on a multi-delivery position, I wonder if there is a way to do this that is not inconsistent with an outright trend trade position?

I also wonder how different the results from a continuous contract test are from one that uses actual individual contract data assuming the trading rules, data, roll algorithms, etc. are identical? This is a test I'd like to perform. I don't currently have software that tests individual contracts.

Traders generally trade a nearby delivery and roll it forward just before maturity.


Unless your trading system employs the absolute value of the futures contract, continuous contracts provide a pretty good emulation of this process.


See TSP, above.

Sun, 7 Aug 2005


Joe Arpaio


Dear Chief Ed,

Sheriff Joe Arpaio  created the "tent city jail":

He has jail meals down to 40 cents a serving and charges the inmates for them.

He stopped smoking and porno magazines in the jails. Took away their weights. Cut off all but "G" movies.

He started chain gangs so the inmates could do free work on county and city projects.

Then he started chain gangs for women so he wouldn't get sued for discrimination.

He took away cable TV until he found out there was a federal court order that required cable TV for jails. So he hooked up the cable TV again, but only let in the Disney channel and the weather channel.

When asked why the weather channel he replied, so they will know how hot it's gonna be while they are working on my chain gangs.

He cut off coffee since it has zero nutritional value.

When the inmates complained, he told them, "This isn't the Ritz/Carlton. If you don't like it, don't come back."

"It feels like we are in a furnace," said James Zanzot, an inmate who has lived in the tents for 1 year. "It's inhumane."

Joe Arpaio seems to feel that strict rules serve the community. 


I wonder if the system might help accelerate prisoner rehabilitation by encouraging formation of Tribes.


If prisoners learn to untie their k-nots and find the positive intentions for their feelings, they might not have to act out in socially unacceptable ways.




Sheriff Joe


A disciplinarian

in the strict sense of the word.


Clip: http://www.rebnora.com/


Sun, 07 Aug 2005


Ordering the Steps

Toward Building a Trading System

Chief Ed,

Is there an optimal order in which to execute the steps in developing a complete and robust trading system? Do the TSP pages depict this optimal order?

I'm wondering if the risk management aspect is best addressed first, in isolation, with a focus on tuning property values (such as max portfolio heat) to be in harmony with the risk tolerance, temperament, feelings about risk etc of the individual trader.

I'm thinking that the optimal risk management variables pertain more to
the trader than any specific trading system the trader may develop and utilize.

Let's say the the bet size, per-trade risk, portfolio heat etc are mathematically optimized for generating profit in a subject system.

Let's also say that the mathematical optimization does not incorporate trader feelings about risk, trader risk tolerance, trader temperament etc.

Is said hypothetical system optimized for profit, or for drama?

I'm thinking that risk management is more of a priority and of more immediate and personal concern to the trader, irrespective of all other variables that require definition in a complete and robust system. I'm thinking it may save much time and effort to first define risk-management values such as max bet size, max per-trade risk, max
portfolio heat etc.

With regard to trading systems development, what are the specific risks of developing the general risk-management property values first?

You can follow along with TSP, above, and see the steps I follow. 


You might have some fancy footwork that works better for you.




Most Dances

and System Development Projects



one step at a time


and by repeating the same steps

over and over, again and again.


Clip: https://www.scandic-hotels.fi/





Sat, 6 Aug 2005


Wants to Attend Workshop

Good afternoon Ed,

I have read your book, and I am interested in attending a fall 2005 workshop. I understand you are planning a workshop for London. I would prefer Reno, but am willing to travel to London. Either way count me in.

I would appreciate acknowledgement of receipt of this e-mail and an update
as to the status of the fall workshop.

Keep an eye on this site for Workshop news.

Sat, 6 Aug 2005


Removing Time From Trading

Hello Ed,

I found that we may separate time from trading, which means that we could trade only the price; therefore we measure the price only with its self and not against a time frame. In order to measure the price, we can define its movement into fixed intervals, either moving up or down.

Since there is no such chart I am creating a new kind of chart that is not restricted by time; it is purely made of price.

I have drawn a sample of this chart manually (see attached); it took me 7 hours to create it! I don’t think I can create this chart manually every time; therefore I am going to use some of the profits that may come from the system I am currently trading and pay a programmer to do it, I know some programmers in India and I can get very cheap prices there.

The main benefit of this chart is that it will not register a new bar unless there is a reversal; this means that if we create two of this chart on the same security using two deferent interval measures and create a simple moving average for each, the moving average cross over will not happen in sideway markets because unless there is a big change in price this chart will not register it, therefore moving averages can run along without touching.

Still working on it, will let you know if I ever find something interesting.

Your method seems similar to point-and-figure charting.


I do not follow your argument about how your method avoids whipsaws. 


You might consider conducting some simulations to develop your point.




Point and Figure Chart


The X Axis

depends on price action,

not on time.


Clip: http://www.dundas.com/Products/



Sat, 06 Aug


Inevitable Transfer

Dear Ed,

I just had a great time reading about the methods you use to promote growth
and self discovery.


The concepts of integration of feelings, "Law of Inevitable Transfer" and so forth have a great many parallels in psycho analytic relief of depression, anxiety and psycho somatic conditions.


In fact the concept of Sender and Receiver is also seen in the analytic setting, and the "Law of Inevitable Transfer" is what analysts call "counter-transference." The use of free association is also very important.


I think it is greatly fascinating to see to areas develop to what appears to be a nearly identical method of assisting and

integrating new patterns of existence.


It makes me think that there is a universal tendency for us to require human contact to grow, and disregarding advice and pressure as to achieve an outcome.

Just an observation.

I do not know about the law of inevitable transfer, except as it relates to taxation.


Transference indicates feelings a client develops towards a therapist.


Counter-transference refers to feelings a therapist develops towards a client.


In TTP we do not employ the classic therapist-patient geometry.  We have one sender and many receivers so transference rarely appears.




Magnetic Transference


The magnet below

appears to transfer its magnetism

to the steel ball above.


Clip: http://www.glowco.us/images/


Fri, 5 Aug 2005


Wants to Change Boss

Mr. Seykota

Being a fan of the Market Wizards books, coupled with visiting the turtle trader website, I just wanted to pass along my thoughts about also sharing the belief about psychology and trading ... It is highly correlated!

I also believe that it comes down to a number and psychology.


If only I could have gotten my ex-boss to spend a little more time developing his psychology, or changing it, developing a philosophy or system, try my system, I would still have a job. I tried to change him but, with losing my job, I failed!

Thanks for being so open to fans of the Wizards. Sharing knowledge and experience always gives me a chance to keep learning, which I really enjoy!

You might consider taking your desire to change others into TTP as an entry point.




 Trying to Change Someone Else

can be a full-time drama.


Experiencing the feeling

of wanting to change someone else

can transform the relationship.


Clip: http://www.sentex.net/


Fri, 5 Aug 2005


Intensions = Results?

Hi Chief,

Tell me more about intensions=results?


My proclamation a year and half ago was to be a happy, profitable trader.


Its not happening, this is the worst year I've every had trading. Started trading in 81, trading full time the last 3 years. Studied, when to seminars, read, followed guru's, nothing is working.


Batting average is under 10% this year. If I'm buying, its like the whole world starts selling, I'm down from the start, I don't even get a chance to manage the trade. Its not 3 strikes and I'm out, they call me out, when I walk on the on deck circle.


Its 2 steps forward and 4 back. I went to the closest tribe meeting last spring, [5 1/2 hour drive], my snap shot was to be a happy, profitable trader.


I'm a miserable, unhappy trader. Intensions=results. REALLY? You say everybody gets what they want from the markets. I don't want to feel this way.


I have been seeing a shrink the past 14 months. He is familiar with the TTP. You explained last week that's not the same as going to a tribe meeting.


After 35 visits with him, I'm face down in the mud, the lowest I've ever been. I'm listed in your directory, I want to start a tribe, but have not had any responses in 16 months.


Please tell me everything you know about intensions=results and doing it myself.

PS. This is the second time I typed this letter. I spent an hour typing the first one, had it completely done, left my computer for a minute, come back and Outlook Express had closed down on its own, losing your letter. That's exactly how my life's been going this year.

Thanks for listening.

Your results indicate a pattern.


When you accept that your results indicate your real intentions, you may be able to untie some of your k-nots and acquire different intentions and results.






are typically very clever

about pretending

that they are not responsible

for the results they get.


Clip: http://clampettstudio.com/images/



Thu, 4 Aug 2005


Stuck in DIM

Ed Says: You might think indecisiveness is a good thing ... then again, you might like to think about it some more.

Maybe TTP Can Help You

to get in touch
with what you want
Then again, maybe it can't

Hi Ed!

I have been treading water for more than a month since I last got in contact with you about my indecisiveness, and just enjoying not making any effort to decide anything until I got clear signals.

Now I have the expectation of a signal coming up soon. It may or may not be what I wish it to be and there's no way to tell the future. Yet I am anxious for it, I feel strong emotions about it and feel tempted to anticipate it.

More precisely I suffer out of anticipation.

FAQ is most effective as a forum in which practitioners can share experiences using TTP. 


It is least effective as a source of advice or therapy to support the DIM (Do It Myself) process.


You might consider joining or starting  a Tribe, and then taking your indecision, expectation and suffering as entry points to TTP.




Experiencing Anticipation


can help locate

its positive intention.


Clip: http://www.jimriegelphoto.com/


Thu, 4 Aug 2005


Mind / Body Therapy

Hello Ed,

On the recommendation of a friend I visited an individual who was a practitioner of what he called "mind-body therapy."

He interviewed me for about 10 minutes about my current life situation, demographic information, occupation, sexual orientation, marital status etc. He then spent about 10 minutes on family-of-origin issues. Was I a happy child? How many sibs? What were my parents like?

He then had me lie down and he made certain statements, such as: "you wish your father had loved you more". He made these statements blandly, without emotion.


After waiting a minute he then inquired about and physical sensations I might be feeling. Sometimes I felt twitching in my legs, other times my back might tighten. After several of these statements, he had me just lie quietly and after about 5 minutes


I had an enormous upwelling of emotion (sadness) and I started to sob uncontrollably. I felt quite embarrassed by my inability to control this response and it was quite unexpected.


I left the appointment shaken, and puzzled by the experience. I'd like to tell you that I went back and courageously worked through some deeper issues, but truthfully I never went back as the whole experience frightened me.

How would you compare this experience to your exercises in TTP? What is similar and/or different about your process?

The process you describe sounds like the early stages of TTP.


In TTP, once we get the sender active and into process, we make sure to get him all the way to the Zero Point before we conclude the process.


Otherwise, he may leave the process active and go out and induce dramas in order to try to complete the experience.


Therapists who end sessions basis a 50-minute hour, irregardless of the patient's emotional state, may be setting the patient up for acting out.




Fifty-Minute Watch


Just the thing for psychologists

who want to shrink the time.



Clip: http://www.philosophersguild.com/



Thu, 4 Aug 2005


The New Stock Effect



I have found that some data vendors are late to add newly listed stocks to their databases. Therefore it is possible to miss buy signals since a stock may not exist in the vendors database at the time a screen is run (the stock is added many days or weeks later with it’s full price history).


This could also make some historical back testing misleading since your back test would generate buy signals (and calculate trade profitability) based on the historical data, but in actuality your screener would never have generated a buy signal on the day your back test shows because the stock was not in the database on the day you ran the screen.

Nice Observation.  See TSP, above.




A Newborn


might not appear

in the public records

until well after his birthday.



Clip: http://people.atg.com/


Thu, 4 Aug 2005


Warren House / London

Warren House is a fantastic meeting place about 20 minutes from the City, convenient by cab or train. When I was working at [Firm] they hosted a worldwide developer's conference there and it was excellent.




Thank you for the suggestion.

Thu, 4 Aug 2005


Fear, Regret and Sadness


I just had an Aha regarding my feelings - I used to regret when I missed a trade and of course the sadness and dejection came with it when I saw the trade worked like I had pictured. That felling of regret is worse than the feeling of fear of losing money and definitely much worse than the feeling of anxiety that I experience just before pulling the trigger in accordance with the system!

So I must make friends with anxiety and control fear through stop loss and triumph over regret by sticking to the system!

Same can be said about making decisions in life and the feelings associated with them. I must avoid regret and pay the price of fear and anxiety when I make the decision that I know is the right one in the present moment. Be true to myself, my system and the people that are with me.

When you come to know the positive intentions of your feelings, your feelings metaform from adversaries into allies.



When You Metaform Fear


from an adversary

into an ally


it can support your trading.


Clip: http://www.timandmary.com/


Wed, 3 Aug 2005


Wants to Place an Account

Dear Ed,

Do you accept new accounts, to be managed by you using your trend-following
strategy? If yes, what are the terms and what is the minimum account size?

I do not accept accounts.  I get to know people and see if there is a fit between their vision and mine. 


As a demonstration of how to set up a fund and/or invest in one, I am presenting the Trading Systems Project, see above. 


You may follow along with the project and determine if you would like to participate in some way.

Wed, 3 Aug 2005


Ed To Speak to TSAA

Dear Ed,

I want to thank you or agreeing to speak about the "Trading Tribe" at our annual conference this year. (To remind you the conference will be held on Saturday, November 12, 2005 in San Francisco).

We have just over 3 months before the conference so now the fun begins. We would like to put together marketing material for a brochure. Could you please forward a brief bio and a synopsis of your talk? As I recall you agreed to talk about the tribe process for 1.5 hours. If time allows a demonstration is always great. We will place the bio and synopsis you send in the brochure.

About a month before the event we would like any audio/visual requests. Or facility will have the ability to project power point presentations up on a large screen. If you have any handouts we can photocopy them for you. If you have a pdf version of the handouts you can e-mail them the day before the event and we can reproduce them. Otherwise you can mail them to me.

Our Chairman, will host a dinner after the conference. He asked that I extend an invitation to you.

You may bill my talk as:


The Trading Tribe

by Ed Seykota


When I present a talk, I rarely use notes or prepare a synopsis.  I typically respond to whatever the room presents in the moment of now. 


If you would like to prepare your attendees for my talk, you might consider referring them to FAQ.




TSAA, since 1970


TSAA-SF is the oldest society in the United States fostering the study and development of technical analysis of stocks and commodities. http://www.tsaasf.org/

Wed, 3 Aug 2005


Goghing  - Goghing - Gone

see: Previous

Hello there: I'm pleased to see that you link to my website, the Vincent van
Gogh Gallery at its former location (www.vangoghgallery.com). I wanted to
let you know that the web address has changed. The new URL is:


I'd be very grateful if you could make the change.

If you tell me the date and title of the FAQ item, I can locate it more easily.



Wed, 3 Aug 2005


Ready to Join IV Tribe

I read Market Wizards (MW) a few years ago. A couple of concepts in the book are in my thoughts. Reading Trend Following I discover the concepts of MW in my mind is where Jack’s interview of you is detailed. So I devour the Trading Tribe web site, and Book, and commit to grow – I am ready Ed.

My life has been a DIM process. As I break the DIM mind-set, going with the flow becomes real, I sense results and they feel good! I seek help with my transformation from DIM to TTP, and from living in the past and future, to living in the NOW.

I contact the Los Angeles tribe without success. So I request admission into the IV TT and wait for decision from you. I offer to begin a tribe on the other side of L.A. County, in the San Gabriel Valley.

My commitment to the IV TT:

Attend at least one Workshop

Attend meetings regularly (I send non-refundable travel info to you as I get your okay to participate)

Report experiences to FAQ

Participate fully as a receiver

And be willing to take the hot seat

And / or manage a process at every meeting

Thank you for sharing, your web site lends support to the theory that the best things in life are free.


I wait for the next workshop, continue to read TTP FAQ, experience feelings, observe judges, and enjoy my “AHA’s”. If a position in IV-TT becomes available and I am invited to participate, I commit to regular attendance, take the hot seat and develop my receiving skills.

Welcome to IV-TT.

Wed, 3 Aug 2005


I know Why

Hello Ed,

I discovered something nice; there is this girl who I don’t pay much attention to because she is not as good looking as the others, I was having coffee and I realized she is a human, she survived her way from birth to grow up to reach here, she has hair, she talks, she loves her family and helps out others and I now know I am shallow so I will avoid this by thinking more to count more probabilities and outcomes, I mean she has the means of survival within a group and for a group.

Today I conducted an experiment of rethinking everything, I mean everything. I asked few people on coffee, they drink it to wake up, some like the smell, some the taste and each of them have their own taste, I discovered that people have a tendency to perform well, they struggle to do so, they enjoy struggling to perform and meet objectives, its how humans survived. We also eat and drink, each with his own diet that suites his lifestyle and his objectives, yet it is always one objective, the objective of overcoming challenge and its instinct to survive as an individual for a group.

See what I mean, I mean most of us hate what they don’t understand because they don’t try to understand, the more you think the more colorful life is, therefore the more choice you have. I find out that the more I think about things that I hate, the more that I learn about how they occur and that I everyone gets what they deserve be it good or bad, therefore it bothers me less that something bad happened because I know the possibilities and I know why It happened and I also know that equally good things also tend to happen and its up to me to leverage the benefits when they happen.

It is exactly like designing a trading system, you know you will lose money trying to catch a trend but on the other hand you know that when the market moves that distance you will recover and you know that you are diversified against if a certain market doesn’t move at all, its leveraging profits when they are available and accepting losses when they are available, the point is to accept everything given and this gives the good side an edge over long term trading, making a simple system and testing against a diversified portfolio will always make money, what losses money is not accepting the short term imbalances.

It’s like reprogramming your preferences, try it, think of something simple in your daily life like “Sleep” or “Loud-Children” or “Coffee” and get curious to acquire as much understanding as you can about anything you think of for a purpose; see how you will find that when you are done understanding how these little things work you will also start wondering how other things work and why they work.

There are endless details in many things that we think they are so simple, there is nothing simple or without a reason, everything has its unique role in defining our daily roles so we may not ignore any thing no matter how simple it looks for the reason that we hate it or like it. Simplicity is fluency in our reaction to things so therefore it is a relationship between us and the subject we are dealing with so that doesn’t mean that the subject is simple and that we are dealing with it the right way that benefits our purpose; this is dangerous because fluency creates our preferences and sometimes our reaction to things are opposite to our benefit yet we don’t know it because our reaction seems smooth and fluent so therefore we consider it right; yet it maybe wrong. We go to keep wondering, this way we keep rebuilding our preferences between likes and dislikes and removes the drama by applying the rule of thinking.

You might consider taking your desire to figure things out into TTP, as an entry point.



Sometimes The Act

of Figuring it Out


becomes more important

than getting the answer.



Clip: http://www.explodingdog.com/






Wed, 3 Aug 2005


Continuous Contracts

Hi Ed,

You said: "To make a Continuous Contract, when the September contract expires, and you are about to roll into the December contract, you simply adjust the December prices down, so they are equal to the September prices on the roll day."

Does that mean that to compute a continuous contract, I'd take the closing price of the Sept contract on expiration day, or the day I choose to roll, determine the difference between that days close and that same days close in the next month and then subtract that difference from the open, high, low, close of all future days until the next rollover ?

Yes.  See continuous contracts at the Trading Systems Project, above

Wed, 03 Aug 2005


Stacks of Judges

Chief Ed,

In the TT book, I do not notice any actual example of processing a Judge stack in a TTP meeting. Is there an example in TT book I do not notice?

I do notice a brief example on the Pollinator page that I find useful for answering some of my questions about how this works.

I believe this may be the only such example in print right Now.



See page 26 of The Trading Tribe, first paragraph.



See The Trading Tribe Book, above

Wed, 3 Aug 2005


Unix Commands


on page:





you show how you can spot the string "Gibbons Burke" in a binary file, in this case a spreadsheet. But did you know that the command "strings" will list all human-readable text in a file, ignoring the binary content. As a UNIX evangelist, I would be remiss in not mentioning it :-)

"Fools learn from their mistakes and wise men learn from fools." -- Chinese Proverb

I wonder, then, who learns from wise men.

Tue, 2 Aug 2005


Down 36 Pounds  / Now Below 200


I have been on a diet and have been trying to get my body in shape for the last 14 months. I have been on a plateau for the last two months. The sideways trend has been broken as a direct result of the hike during the breath work weekend, and the reality check on how bad a shape I am in. I have lost 36 pounds now and broke below 200 pounds yesterday for the first time in I don’t know how many years.

Good Job.




200 Pound Note

from Syria


Ideal for commemorating

the trip from 236 to 200.


Clip: http://aes.iupui.edu/rwise/



Mon, 1 Aug 2005


San Diego Tribe

Dear Ed,

Please remove my name and email as tribe leader for the start-up San Diego tribe. There does not seem to be enough local interest currently to support a tribe. I've only heard from one other would-be member in the two months since I've had my name up on your site (but am receiving a significant amount of unwanted spam, etc.).

I hope all is well with you and your trading. You are an amazing man.

Very best regards

OK. There is now no listing for San Diego.


You might check to see if any of your other projects are also stalling out.  


If so, you might consider taking your feelings about stalling out to one of the other Tribes.



How to Perform

the Hammerhead Stall


From straight and level, apply up elevator and throttle as necessary to fly vertically.


If necessary, reduce throttle until airspeed reduces to the point of stall and the airplane rotates around into a turn.


To complete the hammerhead, apply full rudder and full throttle at the moment of  stall to induce a sharp rotation around the yaw axis.


Bring the plane down vertically.


Be sure to remove your listing from the FAQ directory page.


Clip: http://www.rc-airplane-advisor.com/


Mon, 1 Aug 2005


Trading Tribe in Salem Oregon