Questions

(Quotes from Ed in Red)

Answers

Wed, 9 Jun 2004

OK.

Wed, 9 Jun 2004

Not following through means getting a Form partially developed - and then not going all the way to accepting the experience.

When you accept your Form, you find its positive intention, and see ways to put it to good use.

Worms and Forms

all want free expression

Clip: http://www.niehs.nih.gov/

Wed, 9 Jun 2004

Missing Position

Hello Mr. Seykota,

I would love to work with you.

Do you have any positions available for a trader trained in literary criticism, law, and yoga ?

I worked for 3 years with a day trading firm in NYC and left when I faced and acted on the fact that it suited neither my capital nor my psyche.

Tue, 8 Jun 2004

Try Google.  Warning: too much math-turbation can lead to trend blindness.  So don't count on it or you could become a prime candidate.

Sat, 5 Jun 2004

TTP Spanish Tribe in Miami

Hi Ed:

Sat, 5 Jun 2004

Programming


Hi Ed,

it was a long ago I read something about programming here. I believe it's a good thing to update the list at:

http://www.seykota.com/tribe/

Reference/books/index.htm 

with some titles on Object Oriented Programming and C++ (those you consider the best).

Programming is a great educational task: you learn to adapt yourself to the answer the machine gives you, to take responsibility for the result, to change your behaviour when the things don't work, to understand that, before all, is your attitude to make the difference and after, only after, your skills ...

Fri, 04 Jun 2004

Toxic Parents by Susan Forward

I spent all of yesterday reading this book. What an intense day it was! I did the checklists on what I feel and what I believe in my relationship with my parents and I was shocked when I checked off most of the items. I even had to add some to the list! To help me fully realize and see the feeling and believing part I wrote them on paper. I went from sorrow to fury to outrage to annoyance to disbelief to shock and so on and so on ... in no particular order. I even got a headache during this time. After reading the book I now realize that my recurring headaches may not have been caused by lack of sleep but may be caused by repressed anger.

This book has certainly cast light on a lot of issues in my life. For example, I find it hard to make major life decisions without first consulting with my parents.

I need their approval first before I can proceed with my "grown-up decision". I've only just realized how fiercely competitive I've been with my siblings. I always had to be the first to do something: the first to get a job (at 13 years old?!), the first to graduate from high school, the first to graduate from college, the first to buy a home, the first ... well, you get the picture.

Your headache might be a good entry point for TTP - maybe fantasizing about making a decision without consulting an authority.

The typical TTP sequence:

Picking an entry point.

Developing the Form.

Intensifying the Form.

Abreacting the Form.

Identifying the Form's positive intentions.

Insights (AHA's) typically occur during and after the abreaction phase.

Your Headache

might be trying to tell you something.

Thu, 03 Jun 2004

Congo Tribe

Mr. Ed Seykota,

I live in Likasi little town located in the South of the RD Congo ...

I understand the importance of TTP for our life and consequently our trading.

I want to open a tribe here in Likasi.
I have no experience in TTP meeting and little background in psychology except the terrible experience of being a disciplined trend follower (experiencing the heat zone during my 6 years of trading).

I am aware that I am my only enemy in the market and the need to make peace with that guy if I want to become a successful person in life and in trading . I feel the urge for TTP meetings.

Is it suitable to conduct TTP meetings via the internet with some sort of  communication software?

This could give us a bit of experience to understand and start this African tribe.
As you wrote one day "learning by watching others and by doing" is it possible virtually ;<)

as an example:

Welcome

Likasi, Congo

Yes, you can do TTP by internet, and you can  have sex by internet. Both are about equally productive.

Clip: http://www.khbo.be/pics/content/

nieuwsbrief/feb03/likasi.jpg

Thu, 3 Jun 2004

Radial Momentum applies to physics in general, and to fluid dynamic lift in particular. 

See www.radialmomentum.com.

OK, here is an article for your site:

If you have trouble with #4, you might consider joining / starting a Trading Tribe.

Wed, 2 Jun 2004

Wed, 2 Jun 2004

End of Cheap Oil @

National Geographic Magazine


Great cover story on crude oil... note the bleak, artfully blackened landscape, with cars stacked up like lemmings driving off into the setting sun, the unknown, the abyss... pretty strong emotional content, to my lights.

Paul Montgomery suggests that such signals are stronger when a non-financial mass-circulation magazine picks up on economic or financial stories.

End of Cheap Oil @ National Geographic Magazine

Clip: http://magma.nationalgeographic.

For more "It's gonna go up" news appearing around the recent top of the petroleum complex, see also:

http://money.cnn.com/2004/03/

30/pf/autos/suv_hi_gas_prices/

http://www.thebostonchannel.com/

automotive/3322701/detail.html

http://www.poynter.org/

column.asp?id=2&aid=59282

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/4363659/

http://www.freerepublic.com/

focus/f-news/1134779/posts

http://talk.livedaily.com/

Wed, 2 Jun 2004

Fred: The Movie

Chief Ed,

Hi there. I just discovered this interesting movie title from 1991. It's that Fred guy, from the Tribe.

What's Fred doing in the movies... without CM ?

The Movie: Drop Dead Fred

But then she makes a strange discovery, in the back of her old closet is her old jack-in-the-box, covered in the tape her mother had put there to lock in her imaginary friend, Drop Dead Fred. Opening the tape, who should pop out? Not jack, but Drop Dead Fred!

Fred is stark raving mad, and out to cause as much mayhem as possible, but no one can see him but Elizabeth ... but Fred is back, because Elizabeth is terribly unhappy. In his own weird and wacky way, he is out to set Elizabeth on the right track.

Clip: http://images.amazon.com/images/

Wed, 02 Jun 2004

A Question

Dear Ed,

First I want to congratulate you for your site that I discovered 2 weeks ago via www.turtletrader.com .

Looking for risk management technique and sizing bets. I learn more this week then through my (5 years forex & futures index) trading.

I am impressed by your fantastic personality and vast knowledge in so many areas of life and trading and understand that the only path to become a successful trader its following your advise to stop FAQing around with yourself.

I live in the middle of the bush in RD Congo but I manage to install a V-sat (internet via satellite independent from local non existent Ip provider to be able to achieve my passion of trading).

I read few FAQs and started to write you an email then realized that you wouldn't answer me because you insist on SVO-p so I corrected it ... in SVO-p grammar and discovered in a few second how much problem I still have ... and that the central problem was me .. and what I wrote had to go to the trash bin.

I understand better today after reading the faq that uncertainty of the future in trading as in life brings anxiety confusion anger frustration...

I understand the importance of a plan (based on a back tested method or system) while if cannot predict the future at least lay down a list of strategic responses to accept my fear and greed and do what is required when prices reach those 2 psychological levels.

That list of strategic responses control me and not those events beyond my control .
I understand also the importance of trading with the trend or flow .. how can we make money if the price doesn't move .. and move and move.

I design trading systems based on trend using [Software] but don't manage to find a winning strategy over the long term .All these systems start loosing money after a while due to tremendous drawdown during those period of non trending period. Those big winners 5% are eaten up by those small but numerous loosers.

I am very risk averse and my comfort zone is .5 percent risk per trade and 15% max drawdown and I cannot apply it to a successful time frame (weekly euro$ forex)) with my equity . On too small time frame(4 hours chart euro$ on forex) its not a winning strategy (too many false signals) .

You talk about an optimum betting size in your article which I don't grasp because you say you have a return of 2 to 1 in a coin toss and me only a 1 to 1..;<)...must be an Ed Seykota hand made coin .. wish I could buy one ;<).

I am joking because I guess that its just an example of a 50% system with a 2 to 1 return.

I always find systems with [Software] which are around 40% losers to winners ratio with 1.73 ratio winners/ losers after fees and slippage. I also don't trust very much their program (the way they deal with trailing stops did the market went up before down concept) and the data that I introduce (difficult to find reliable historical data ).

I spend hours checking manually those systems with intraday data to achieve more confidence and also experience the feel of what it is to trade those system (long long period of drawdown).

But I don't give up to find a better system ..I know now that I have met you (my first mentor) and the tribe and that the problem is still within me .. and that I can see light for the first time at the end of my trading tunnel..

In the meantime while searching a suitable system (good winners to losers ratio around 60% and about 2.2 to 1 ...  keep scalping the market with a 1.6 target to risk ;applying a calibrated risk management of .5% risk of equity on 15 minutes time frame on the euro$ (forex market) watching a small trend to develop for my entry signal and trailing my stop until target is reached this to keep in touch with real market trading and training for discipline (non ambiguous entry placing stops moving stops applying risk management) .. but unfortunately still violating the basic rule of trend following... let profit run.

I apply also risk control (trying to avoid large illiquid volatilities period for my stops) I mean avoiding week ends (no stop) and fundamental reports around 9 to 10 am ET (big random shocks on forex (50% of the time comes back in few minutes to initial price and 50% of the time act like a infinite variable busting trend pattern (looks more like the take off of a shuttle then a trend) .
I guess its also a violation of trend following concept (according to faq) but I am not feelingly qualified yet for these take off especially that I am not always in the cockpit 50% of the time I am sitting in the tail and feel the heat of the engines on my ego and my wallet.

This ... until I find a reliable back tested trend following system with an acceptable drawdown which will give me the confidence to properly trade one day .

Please I have a question: you talk about fractal in time frame but when I check the price of euro $ the larger the time frame reaching daily and weekly the market doesn't have so many consolidation phase and small but devastating countertrend pattern its trending better and better and violating less and less the trend (less noise) this is terrible because does it mean that we are unable to trade successfully small time frame with smaller stop?

Does that explain part of the 90% losers unable (due to small equity )to trade successfully?? Or is that just again a wrong perception due to less data in larger time frame ??

Again thank you for sharing your insight teaching us to grow up in life and trading.
I have 2 wishes today be in the hot seat with you as a receiver .. at a TTP. And trade few years close to you ... to grasp a bit of your immense wisdom.

I do not understand your question.

If you wish to clarify it, you might try presenting it to some friends, until they can understand what you mean.

Sometimes, Inducing Confusion

is clearly the intention.

Clip: http://www.pastemusic.com/images/

product/unscaled/1a%5B1%5D.confusing.jpg

Wed, 2 Jun 2004

Tozan asks Unmon what to do when the market trends. Unmon smiles and doubles up.

Ha Ha Ha - Aha Aha

Clip: http://marbella.to/humour/

Wed, 2 Jun 2004

Article on Human Feelings

and the Perception thereof

Hi, Ed -

An article in the most recent number of the journal "Trends in Cognitive Sciences" seems to relate, if I understand it correctly, to TTP. It discusses how the perception of feelings is made up of the composite of many different visceral and somatic manifestations coming into the brain from various parts of the body.

The abstract of the article may be found here:

http://www.sciencedirect.com/

Wed, 2 Jun 2004

No Time Like the Present

Ed,

I have just read an article in which the author describes the ever-present Now - what I call "No time = no duration" - so succinctly.

I find myself thinking about an increasingly frequent question from my three & a half year old daughter ... "Is it tomorrow ?" She asks it nearly every day and perhaps it is a common question from kids of that age.

I patiently explain that right now it's today and that the next day is always tomorrow, but sometimes she gets upset and says "No, today is tomorrow", meaning of course that what was referred to yesterday as tomorrow has now arrived.

Your daughter's experience of tomorrow and yesterday exist right here in the now, along with everything else.

Julian Barbour

Slightly Ahead of His Time

In his book, The End of Time, physicist Barbour argues that part of Newton's and Einstein's legacies are a belief in the existence of time, a belief that is both convenient and false.

Clip: http://www.edge.org/3rd_culture/