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July 1 - 14, 2010
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Contributors Say
(Quotes from Ed in Red) |
Ed Says |
|
Wednesday,
July 14, 2010
Taking Responsibility for His Feelings
Ed,
I notice I
feel certain unhappiness which I like to “blame” on teenage experiences
or dumbfounded government employee actions (that affect my profession
and business).
Lately, I decide to see this unhappiness as a lack of ME caring and
loving of myself. I decide to actively love myself and care for myself
continuously and as deeply as I can muster.
The first instance, blaming my unhappiness on prior life experiences or
on others behavior, is closely aligned with Causality.
The second instance seems to be more aligned with a System model and
assumption of personal responsibility.
I now see the first method is actually easier to implement (lazy,
selfish behavior) and the second is more challenging (requires active
work NOW) yet infinitely more rewarding.
Cheers! |
Thank you for sharing your process
and for being a role model for others. |
|
Wednesday,
July 14, 2010
How to Avoid Whipsaws
Hi Ed,
I have read in your previous FAQ answers that "it
is nice to be out during choppy whipsaw markets"
Please tell how to avoid the choppy whipsaw markets or what are the
signals of start of choppy markets.
|
Whipsaws are part of Trend Trading.
See the link to the Whipsaw Song, above.
|
|
Tuesday, July
13, 2010
Whips and Saws
Hi Ed.
Thanks for
doing what you do. My kids love the whipsaw song. Ed, My partner and I
developed and have been trading a long-term breakout system (for
futures) for 5 years now. Everything is going as planned, we continue to
backtest and test against actual and everything is working.
We have been
in a sustained drawdown over the last 18 months which is definitely not
as enjoyable as the sustained upward moves in the past.
We fully
intend to fly this ship to the end and breakout of this current phase
and are still confident that the system is capable however, is this the
point where we just need to play the whipsaw song over and over and over
to help us get through this? |
Thank you for sharing your process.
You might consider taking your
feelings about <endless drawdowns> to Tribe.

Trend Traders Sometimes Have To Deal
with feelings of falling
into a bottomless pit.
Clip:
http://thecleandeal.files.wordpress.com/
2009/11/money_black_hole.jpg |
|
Tuesday, July
13, 2010
Contemplating Willingness
Dear Ed,
I attend the Tribe meeting in Austin. Each member previously defined a
project to be completed by the end of the 10 Tribe meetings. We report
progress on the projects. And we describe the deliverable that proves
project success. With the help of Tribe members, we refine the
deliverables.
One Tribe member takes the hotseat to work on issues with his father,
symbolized by a pinewood derby project. The father pressures the son to
work on the project, and berates the second place finish. As before,
through role play, we find that getting to the expression of feelings of
both parties diffuses the issue.
Another member works through mother issues, with similar results.
I am asked to review my willingness to take the hotseat.
|
Thank you for sharing your process. |
|
Tuesday, July
13, 2010
Feeling Connection
Dear Support Team,
I'm learning and growing personally and technically as I continue with
my commitment.
I have a sense of being part of something larger than myself.
I feel both connection and significance in working with others.
Thank you for your support.
|
Thank you for sharing your process. |
|
Tuesday, July
13, 2010
Has Trouble Sticking to His System
Hello Ed
I am trading for past 4 years. I have made a simple trading system for
myself (based on Moving averages and support and resistance). Now, my
problem is the inability to follow it. I enter in the trend fairly
early, then after small moves in my favor I have a tendency to book
profits and reverse in hope of catching the small correction. Many a
times the correction never comes and I am in a losing trade instead of a
profitable one.
Many a times I say to myself and even write it on the paper that "I am
not going to get out of this position and in no case I am reversing".
Still the very next day I get out and even reverse.
A few times I was able to sit tight and caught the majority of the move,
but these instances are very few.
What according to you is the problem and how can I get rid of this?
Be Cheerful
|
Thank you for sharing your process.
You might consider taking your
feelings about <sticking to your system> to Tribe.

Stick-To-It Mittens
When you feel like jumping your system,
put these on - to protect you
from entering orders
until you are willing
to experience the feeling
and let it go.
Clip:
http://www.webstaurantstore.com/
best-value-6786rmt-14-neoprene-oven
-mitts-fryer-mitts-pair/best-value-6786rmt
-14-neoprene-oven-mitts-fryer-mitts-pair.jpg |
|
Sunday, July
11, 2010
Figuring the Odds
I ask everyone I see who they think is going to win. Only one person I
know chooses the Netherlands. Everyone else is picking Spain to win -
including David Beckham.
The current betting trend is 2/3 for Spain, about 30% for the
Netherlands, and a small % for a tie after regulation. 75% of the public
favors a total of more than 2.5 goals.
Statistically, the Netherlands has a 8% edge over Spain. A tie after
regulation is more likely than average. The game total is most likely 2
goals.
Fundamentally, no team in the last 30 years has won the World Cup when
they a lost a game in the preliminary round robin matches.
Spain lost one game against a so-so team team.
strategy:
tie after regulation
under 2.5 regulation goals
Netherlands for the win in regulation, extra time or penalty shootout
If Spain wins 3-0, then OBVIOUSLY my analysis SUCKS.
I am going to [location] wearing Orange to watch the game.
Regardless of who is the winner, I intend to enjoy a great game and some
noodles at [name of restaurant].
|
I wonder what betting strategy you
use: position sizing, adding on, cutting losses, etc. |
|
Saturday, July
10, 2010
Wants to Join
Ed,
I would like to join TT |
See the Tribe Directory, above. |
|
Friday, July
9, 2010
Austin Tribe Report:
On
Measuring Completion
Dear Ed,
Report on Session #4
One of the requirements for joining this Tribe Meeting Series in Austin
was for each participant to have a meaningful project he would like to
complete during the series.
During this
week’s sessions we reported on progress on each of our individual
projects including how to measure completion. After each person gave his
verbal report on his project, each other member of the team then give it
either a “Pass” or “No Pass”. We went through several cycles of this in
the entire group and in sub-groups in order to receive feedback from our
fellow tribe members to help us clarify our goals and focus on clear,
measurable deliverables.
Even though I thought I went in with clear
goals and deliverables there was still room for improvement because in
the first cycle only half of my colleagues gave me a “Pass”. However, by
the last feedback cycle my goals was and deliverables were much clearer
and all of my colleagues gave me a “Pass”. Thanks very much for that!
For the next session, we have been requested to bring in physical
prototypes of our deliverables.
My main “aha” moment of this session was a remark that Ed made about
feelings: those feelings we are not willing to experience will become
our system. Or, in other words, we cannot escape our feelings because if
we try to do so they came back to us through our systems. If we are
willing to experience all feelings, then they will not interfere with
our system. Wow!
Once again, thank you Ed for the valuable insights and thanks also to my
fellow tribe members for their support. |
Thank you for sharing your process. |
|
Friday, July
9, 2010
Dealing With Sticking To the System
Dear Support Team,
I am pleased to report that I am now following my system without
exception since my last report. It is not easy, but getting easier as I
experience my feelings. This is a major accomplishment for me, laying
the foundation to achieve my commitment to make my investment management
business a success.
I realize that a trader who consistently and
capriciously breaks his system is no better than a compulsive gambler,
doomed to failure and heartache. In reading some of Ayn Rand’s
philosophy recently I recognize that such self-destructive behavior is
also immoral. I want nothing to do with breaking my system.
Generally, it is a productive month toward my commitment. My personal
trading performance is good; I make great strides with programming and
have encouraging back testing results; I am set to begin trading one of
my investment programs live in a managed account next week. Following my
system seems to allow for me to be more productive in other areas,
moving toward right livelihood.
Despite these advances, over the last few days I feel especially anxious
almost to the point of paralysis. The regulatory requirements of me and
associated costs are overwhelming. I am especially concerned about my
performance managing this new account, which I plan to use as a track
record to raise money. Strong performance managing this account seems
essential to achieving my commitment. I am feeling the heat.
Thanks for your support. |
Thank you for sharing your process. |
|
Thursday, July
8, 2010
Austin Tribe Report:
Solving
Puzzles
Dear Ed,
Thanks to each of you for your willingness to share...I have benefitted
a great deal as I have observed and been involved in some of the
processes.
Austin Tribe
Update (June 8, 2010)
A Tribe member shares feelings about a drama involving his mother in law
and his wife. I notice his feelings of resentment towards his mother in
law…but ultimately it is revealed that they are towards his wife also.
He gets into the feeling about this circumstance and the tribe does a
role play. It is interesting the intentions that are revealed from all
the participants as a role play is developed. I notice that during the
control centric model there is always a breakdown of receiving or
sharing of feelings. I notice in my own life I can choose to disconnect
in a relationship if I am unwilling to feel feelings or deal with the
feelings that come up.
I feel uncomfortable or overwhelmed today
regarding a trading decision or lack of decision…I find it difficult to
get into the feeling and occupy my time with medicinal activities to
avoid facing the feeling. I carry some deep inner shame I am unwilling
to feel so I accept the smaller world created by this feeling. In the
drama as the tribe member shares / receives feelings with his spouse the
drama dissolves like magic. The feeling is the truth inside…is just
waiting to be felt and acted on. As Ed says in Tribe….”whatever I am
unwilling to feel is running my life”…so true
A second feeling involves an older brother abusing his younger brother.
The younger brothers’ feeling surfaces during the hot seat. I notice the
emotional pain of feeling disconnected from a close family member…the
longing to connect emotionally with “my only brother”. It is difficult
at first to see how to utilize the intimacy centric model in a situation
where one is physically threatened or abused. I notice during the
process as the tribe role plays out the circumstances that there is a
moment of NOW in the dialogue where the choice is made to go down the
control centric model path or the intimacy centric model path. In a
heated drama many times our instincts and knots steer us down
predetermined paths…such are rocks. Nevertheless, in the drama it is
revealed there is an opportunity to open the door to intimacy in the
relationship between brothers.
I am amazed
how the countenance of the Tribe Member changes as intimacy is adopted
in the role play. I observe the softness and tenderness he has for his
older brother…the desire to connect only as brothers can. It is
interesting that an “aha moment” can be reframing something that has
previously been so painful into something very beautiful and meaningful.
It appears to me there is tremendously emotional healing in reframing
and essentially relearning really what intimacy is.
A third process involves a drama where a Tribe Member has been
physically assaulted by his father. He gets into the feeling very
dramatically … the feeling of sadness and grief from an ongoing abusive
situation. I greatly admire his ability to feel all of the grief and
shame from this traumatic event. Ed talks about the grieving process and
I feel our fellow Tribe Member makes great strides in getting in touch
with these feelings. We role play the scenario and find, to everyone’s
amazement, there is the opportunity to reframe the scenario towards
intimacy. I notice a shift in his countenance and body posture.
An
observation … we work on some brain teaser puzzles after the Tribe
Meeting. They are interlocking metal or wooden puzzles where there is a
solution but it perhaps may take seeing the right angle to release the
pieces from their interlocking hold together.
I enjoy working on these
puzzles and as I solve one and remember how to release the puzzle it
becomes easier the next time. I am sure Ed has solved each of those
puzzles many times but each time he looks at the situation with a fresh
curiosity … just like a child. He usually proceeds to solve each of them
quickly. He gets a mental picture of the puzzle quickly in his mind then
proceeds to try the most logical solution. If his first observation is
inaccurate he begins trying on different outcomes to solve the puzzle.
It is interesting that many of the relationship dynamics are much like
these simple puzzles. There are pieces related to feelings that are
interlocked inside the person that need to be released.
I find it
interesting that as Ed is managing a process and testing for willingness
he is making a mental model of the psychological puzzle as he goes
along. Each question / response and test for willingness sheds a little
more light on the mental dynamics of the interlocking pieces inside the
Tribe Member. Once he has a mental model of this puzzle he goes
immediately on working towards the solution. As the Tribe Member becomes
willing to feel the feelings and is open to intimacy they become aware
of the pieces of the “mental puzzle” or “rock” for themselves…they have
an “aha moment.” The process reinforces how the knot or puzzle works in
their particular situation and the simple solution becomes obvious.
Much of the
time the Tribe Member has been engaged trying to solve this puzzle in
the same way over and over again…they have no pattern for going down a
different road. It is strange that each of us can be so blind to our
“puzzle” that the obvious solution eludes us…perhaps for decades. We
have no mental framework or relational capacity for doing
otherwise…somehow we missed the modeling of a different outcome. It is
refreshing to literally see in a Tribe Member that sees an intimacy
centric solution for the first time…it is like a light switch comes on.
As we role play out the solution to the puzzle the light gets brighter
and brighter.
Thank you Ed
for your willingness to assist each of the Tribe Members in unlocking
these puzzles inside and leading us towards greater levels of intimacy.
|
Thank you for sharing your
observations. |
|
Thursday, July
8, 2010
Options Strategy
Hi Ed,
Do you think that it's a good strategy to buy a call and a put option in
commodities
and keep these options until they expire ...
In that way, if I ride the trend, 1 option will be worthless, and I
will lose only the premium
and the second option will worth a lot more than the 2 premiums that I
paid for the call and put options.
|
Some ways to play for a move are
going long straddles, long strangles, short condors and short
butterflies.
None of these work if the price
stays quiet.

Buying Volatility
is like betting on a guy to wake up
before the alarm goes off
Clip:
http://www.flatrock.org.nz/topics/
intellect_and_entertain/assets/man_sleeping.jpg |
|
Wednesday,
July 7, 2010
Wants The
Answer
Dear Ed Seykota,
Forgive me for this call you
I have read your Trading Tribe
Some traders would like to ask you the question
I read the book Michael Covel
Richard Dennis breakthrough study of the system
20 days and 60 days break system
I use these two systems in the history of transaction records
Find them quite feasible
I know that Richard Dennis breakthrough system is Richard Donchian
theory developed in
And your system is the first theory comes from the Richard Donchian
I know you had to do with the four kinds of system tests
Can you tell me which four kinds of systems and each system corresponds
to the number of days
Thank you for your enlighten |
FAQ does not recommend specific
system parameters. See Ground Rules. |
|
Tuesday, July
6, 2010
Austin Tribe Report
Different
Result with Daughter-in-Law
Dear Ed,
From our last Austin Tribe Meeting, I listen to a Tribe member discuss
issues with his mother that continue to impact his life. He keeps things
inside which leads to being irritable, anxious, frustrated, and feelings
of disappointment and disgust. The tribe assists in role playing which
allows him to choose different decisions in his childhood experience
that allows for a different outcome.
The statement "What you are not willing to feel is what controls (runs)
your life" impacts me directly and personally.
After the meeting, I experience the feeling of wanting to control
outcomes. I get into a situation with my wife and I am able to deflect
blame to her for a poor decision on my part.
She confronts me and I
describe my feelings and ask her about how she feels. This opens a
discussion in front of her daughter and son in law.
Her daughter starts
to defend my wife. I start to withdraw. I notice what I am feeling,
reflect on the past and see 'withdrawal' as a common pattern. I think
about how I can use new resources in this situation.
Instead of
suppressing, I try to communicate my feelings, admit my error and
explore my wife's feelings. My wife accepts them. Her daughter
apologizes to me for her logical defense of her mom, she accepts my
feelings and hugs me.
This is a different outcome than past experiences.
By not holding back, I am able to express my feelings and receive the
feelings of others and move to a better outcome.
I continue to discuss with my wife how 'control' impacts me and my
desire to move forward in this area. |
Thank you for sharing your process.

The Father / daughter-In-Law relationship
generally inherits many complications
that you can resolve
with intimacy-centric relating.
Clip:
http://image28.webshots.com/29/5/85/
62/275158562mhXatZ_fs.jpg |
|
Monday, July
5, 2010
Wants a Reaction about Meaning
Hi Ed,
I just read a quote, and wonder if you agree and what you think about
it:
The only thing in the entire universe that you have control over is the
meaning you give (to an event / thing / person).
Thanks.
|
I'm not quite sure how you might
give, say, a rock meaning - or what a rock with meaning might mean.
Perhaps you give the meaning to
yourself as a way to look at the rock.

A Meaningless Rock

A Rock With Meaning
Clip:
http://blog.oregonlive.com/themombeat/
2009/02/rock_solid_solutions_small.jpg |
|
Sunday, July
4, 2010
Sacramento Tribe
Dear Ed,
I attach my TT
ID.
Thank you |

Welcome
Sacramento
California! |
|
Sunday, July
4, 2010
A Whys Guy
Dear Ed,
If you think that markets keep changing, why is do you think that is
useful to make back-testing?
Thank you very much
|
FAQ does not address "why"
questions. See ground rules. |
|
Saturday, July
3, 2010
Progress with Anger, Trading
and being more Intimate with his Wife
Hello All,
Thank you for being on my support team.
I get a lot out of doing these reports and appreciate the feedback I
receive.
I have a hodgepodge of things to report.
I accomplish several things in Tribe meetings. I work on a knot I have
about <being impolite>, particularly about being impolite to people with
whom there’s a complex relationship, for example, an in-law. Previously,
I have no middle ground resource. I have a resource of “turn the other
cheek”, which is what I use 95% of the time or a resource of “pull out
the knife”, to cut and brutalize with words, used the other 5% of the
time.
I now have a new resource of how to handle an insult or being told
what to do or being judged. My Tribe chief suggests a resource of noting
and playing off of exactly what I feel when such a situation occurs. For
example, if I’m feeling insulted by what is said then, “Thank you for
insult.”
I do notice temptation and an increase in willingness to “pull out the
knife” when I feel someone is treating me unjustly. With Tribe work, I
am much, much more willing to experience feelings that can be
consequences of “pulling out the knife,” such as <rejection> or
<disapproval>.
I feel a darkness and a pleasure in this. This feels
young and rebellious to me. I have interest in exploring this though I
feel like the wiser path is to commit to sharing feelings and work from
that perspective.
I continue to notice more evidence of my Snap Shot working. My Snap Shot
is “I’m a successful trader.” Evidence of it working is the calm I feel
while following my system and being able to enjoy life outside of the
market rather than feeling I must slave over the market to do well. It
also gives me more patience and perspective and less medicating.
I give thought to my system vs. my System. Little “s” being this is when
I buy, this is when I sell, etc. The big “S” being that plus many of the
things in my commitment; the deliberate practice, experiencing feelings,
tribe, family, and the environment at large. Thinking in terms of the
big “S” System seems to result in greater ease of focusing on what’s
most important, first things first, and less drama which affords me more
energy.
Doing some Tribe type work with my wife, we find a knot in her about
<letting others feel let down by her>. It has the classic knot qualities
to it … she does not let me feel let down by her and then I feel more let
down like I’m not being heard and then it fuels from there. The knot
gives her a blockage to harvesting criticism from me … criticism makes her
feel she’s let me down. After experiencing lots and lots of anger
towards her I notice a feeling of sadness for my wife and
compassion … this is a very hard life to go through if you’re unwilling to
leverage criticism … this is an AHA! for me as well.
From this experience, I notice I have a knot about being let down by
those close to me. I hate the feeling. When it happens I flood with
anger. Other feelings like hurt and vulnerability and sadness are
blocked out. I hide behind the feeling of anger. This is a painful
feeling that I recall in experiences from childhood from a mother that
means very well but is emotionally incapable of loving, encouraging,
being strong, touching, supporting.
Overall, I feel like I’m experiencing a positive upward spiral. Working
into resistance gives me more energy to work into resistance. I am
staying on the proactive path.
End of Q reporting: for Q2 ’10 I return 2.5%.
Thank you for your support. |
Thank you for sharing your progress. |
|
Saturday, July
3, 2010
Austin tribe report #4:
Race Cars
We meet and
check in. We then give a report about our projects. Ed asks for us to
come up with evidence we will present at the final Tribe meeting of this
series to prove we achieve what we said our intention is for this
series.
We split up
into groups and work on this. We then get back together and report what
we come up with. I give my idea and Ed asks for that statement plus a
histogram showing the size of both profits and losses to show that I am
following good trading principles. We then have a checkout for that
process and any feelings that come up. I state that I get the feeling of
dread and it feels like something else I have to do more like a burden.
I take the
hotseat with that feeling. Another member volunteers to manage the
process who has never done this before. He does a good job and in a
short time I get the incident. I am in Boy Scouts and the pinewood car
derby is coming up.
Although I enjoy building model cars I have not
started building my car yet. My dad comes in and starts yelling at me to
get it done. I lose interest in doing this now and wait until the last
minute to finish the car so I don't have time to weigh it.
Since it is a
race that uses gravity to propel the car, weight helps the car to go
faster. He griped at me all the way to the race about not finishing in
time to weigh the car. When we get there I actually win 2nd place and
feel proud of my accomplishment until the ride home where dad yelled at
me all the way home saying if I had completed earlier and weighed I
could have won the race. This took all my joy away.
Growing up I
felt powerless around my dad. The only resource I had was to blank out,
try not to get hit and endure until he stopped yelling and left. My
Tribe members suggested two resources to try. When I try them I just
don't have the ability to make them work.
My Tribe models what the
resources look like to help me and I try them again. After a few tries I
finally get power with these new tools and feel good about using them. I
am surprised how well they actually work. We then do a check out about
my process and Ed asks how I feel about the task he asks me to complete.
It is completely turned around now and I look forward to completing it.
It feels light and I am looking forward to learning new things while
completing it.
My hot seat is
interrupted several times with Ed coaching the process manager so
everyone learns how to do this, we stopped to eat dinner and then
started again and I stopped the hot seat to instruct the role player
what I needed to make it more real for me. Even with all this it turns
out to be a very powerful session for me. Thanks Tribe!
Before this
series my project of trading profitably seemed to exist somewhere off in
the distant future without clear next step actions I need to take. Last
night I wake up at 4:00am and realize I am working out the specific
steps necessary to complete my trading project while I am dreaming.
|
Thank you for sharing your process.

Fathers and Sons
can help each other grow.
Clip:
http://forums.steves-digicams
.com/attachments/biweekly-shoot-out
/151526d1269690962-diagonals-pinewood
-derby-scouts-pinewood-20derby-20081-
20s-20diag.jpg |
|
Friday, July
2, 2010
Just a Little Bit Longer
Dear Mr. Seykota,
thank you, for your answer!
You might consider back-testing some systems that stay in the market a
little longer.
Usually I move my stop loss, under the 3 days low, or above 3 days high,
to protect my profits, until the market take me out...
To stay a little longer, I need to use a wider stop loss?
and how many days do you consider a little longer?
Thank you very much for your support
|
"Stay-a-a-a-ay, just a little bit
longer
Please, Please, please, please, please
Tell-a-me you're going to
Now, how your daddy don't mind
And your mommy don't mind
If we have another dance
Yeah, just one more
One more time
Oh, won't you stay
Just a little bit longer
Please let me hear
You say that you will
Say you will." - Stay (Just A Little Bit
Longer)
by The Chantels |
|
Friday, July
2, 2010
Clinical Trials of TTP
Ed,
On Monday, June 21, 2010 “Clinical Trials for TTP”, you write
“I wonder if you can send comparable metrics for alternative methods
such as talk-therapy, pharmacology and getting some straight talk from
an authority figure.”
I compare the results of other therapies with a single hot seat:
To my knowledge, there are no single session therapies available; they
would be, of course, not in the best interest of therapist who make a
living of it and prefer to attend patients for a long period.
In <my country> the health insurance covers 6 to 8 “introductory meetings”
to see the possible perspectives of a talk therapy. The real treatment
begins after these 8 meetings.
Antidepressants require 2 to 3 weeks before showing effect; they are
effective in about 60% of patients.
A straight talk with an authority figure can, in fact, be life-changing.
I am not aware of statistical analysis of this procedure.
Our trial documents that TTP is effective, but not how. The effects of
TTP can also be related to other factors: placebo effect, expectation,
suggestion, and chance. To rule them out we are planning a more complex
design, including a control group which receives a single talk or
indications, how to get rid of their troubles.
There are other therapeutic approaches which are also associated with
dramatic changes in a short time (EMDR, coherence therapy). There are
also spiritual (ho´oponopono) and very pragmatic systems (Sedona method)
who base on similar principles as TTP does.
All these approaches share
the concepts of living in the now, accepting reality, the feelings of
the others, and the own responsibility. Some of them use forms or
equivalents, and mention that there is no “problem”, but a dysfunctional
perception of reality.
I keep you informed about the next developments and findings. |
Thank you for your report. |
|
Thursday, July
1, 2010
Wants to Extend TSP
Hi Ed,
Thank you for your response to my earlier email. Here is an outline for
extending the TSP. I was targeting the section Optimizing a Trend System
of the TSP. I constrained the outline to equities and the Simple
Exponential Crossover System.
There are many
combinations to consider, I feel dread creeping in, in the form of an
impending combinatorial explosion.
* Optimizing a Simple Exponential Crossover System for Equities
1. Software and Hardware
2. Where To
Get Symbol Lists
3. Data
Sources
4. Single
Instrument (covered in TSP - review use Lake Ratio, validate against
existing TSP)
5. Bliss
Function – (Lake Ratio using a Riemann sum)
a. Comparison of Results – Lake Ratio and Max Draw Down Bliss Functions
6. Issues With
Volatility Based Position Sizing and Multiple Equities
7.How Much
Sampling?
a. Monte Carlo
b. Step Wise Sampling
8. A
Maintaining a Baseline
9. Working
With Large Data Sets
a. Dealing with anomalies
10. Multiple
Instrument - One Set Fits All
a. Measurement – Logging Parameters
b. Parameters -- One Set Fits All
c. Instrument Inclusion and Exclusion
d. Optimizing Position Size - One Fits All
e. Number of Instruments (Large vs Small Portfolios)
f. Greediness Of The Kelly Criterion
g. System Wide Bet Fraction
11. Multiple
Instrument - Unique Parameters
a. Measurement – Logging Parameters
b. Each Instrument Has Its Own Parameter Pair
c. Instrument Inclusion and Exclusion
d. Optimizing Position Size
e. Number of Instruments (Large vs Small Portfolios)
f. System Wide Bet Fraction One For All Instruments
g. Frequency Of Parameter Updates
12. Sample
Optimization Times (hours running)
13. Comparison of Methods Examined |
You might consider taking your
feelings about <dread> to Tribe. |
|
Thursday, July
1, 2010
Austin Tribe Report
Hello Ed,
Thanks for another great tribe meeting in Austin, TX. One of the members
of the Tribe shared his process by indicating he wanted to make more
money from his business and have more time to devote to trading. It was
suggested that he increase the prices he charged for his work at his
automotive repair business by 20%.
He didn't believe that he could make
this increase stick because he didn't feel his prices would be
competitive and that customers would turn away. However, his service is
very good and his customers tell him he under-prices his product.
Then
he goes through an exercise in which each tribesman asks him what it
would cost for a particular service and he would quote the new higher
price. For example, what would it cost to replace a fuel pump in a
Cadillac Escalade and he would reply, in this instance, $880.00. He
repeated this exercise for different services with each Tribe member.
Every member accepted the new prices and he felt more confident about
increasing his prices. This process was meaningful to me because it has
to do with how we value ourselves and how that translates into pricing
our services in the marketplace.
The next Tribesman to occupy the hot seat said he had a fear of taking
risks in his investments like he used to. He indicated something was
holding him back. He related this back to a story in his youth when he
was playing in the dirt with his toy army men in the family garden. His
father came up and scolded him for playing in the garden.
I role played
as his father but this time he used the intimacy-centric model to
communicate with his father. When his father began scolding him, he
related that he was trying to be like him since he was in the military.
This relating of feelings was received and brought more understanding
and compassion by the father. This process was a great example of how
our fears can be mitigated by using the intimacy-centric model to
hopefully bring a better understanding in what can be tense situations.
This can also help bring more confidence in handling interpersonal and
investment related situations.
Thanks again see you at the next Tribe meeting. |
Thank you for sharing your
observations. |
|
Thursday, July
1, 2010
Wants Patterns
Dear Ed,
What are the chart patterns that you look for?
Thank you very much
|
Trending up and trending down. |
|
Thursday, July
1, 2010
Austin Tribe Report
From
Control to Intimacy
Dear Ed,
I experience many changes in my relationships with my parents, my wife,
and my son, and my in-laws. My father and my mother come to visit for a
play date with my son. It’s the first time in over a year that my father
comes to visit. After a few hours, play time ends and my son and wife
leave the house. My dad and mom stay for another three hours and just
talk. We talk about my wife’s and mine parenting philosophy and
techniques. We talk about property rights and our son’s toys. There are
a couple of times that I see my dad’s eyes water. I’m perfectly
comfortable being around him now. I just accept him. He and my mother
start leaving and I walk them to their car. My dad stops on the sidewalk
and hugs me and tells me that he loves me. I tell him that I love him.
They both leave. We repeat the process again this week.
My wife tells me that this is the most happy and comfortable she has
ever been in our relationship. We send and receive each other every
night.
Thank you for hosting the Austin tribe.
|
Thank you for sharing your process. |
Back to the Future
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