(Quotes from Ed in Red)

Ed Says

Tribe Meeting Report

Hello All,

Thank you for being on my support team.

First, I note my intention to not send this out on time as it is now mid-August and my commitment is by the 3rd day on the new month.

I take five weeks off and go on vacation with my wife and kids at the beginning of July. I see lots of family and experience lots of opportunities to resist feelings and I pass on most all of them. I speak up many times using resources I practice in Tribe and just go with what I’m feeling in that moment. This leaves me feeling satisfied and in the moment. I never feel any temptation or desire to “pull out the knife.”

I continue to work on my campaign to get more done. I notice when I’m supposed to do something and I space out or seek out distraction. I’m focusing on these moments.

I push further towards developing my life outside of trading, mostly spending time with my young children. A quote from Michael Marcus comes to mind - he in essence says if you don’t have something outside of trading-some balance - then you’ll either end up overtrading or flip out over temporary failures.

I have an Aha! about TTP fitting into my life. TTP is not a method for always being happy. It’s not a method for having things magically fall in my lap. It’s a method for removing blockages so that I can get on with the important work, the proactive path.

I notice something about the guidance from feelings. If I don’t take the guidance then I don’t get it. I also notice how fast feelings can come and go - in fractions of a second - but the message is clear and unabbreviated.

Flipping through the channels one night I catch an old Sopranos on which Tony Soprano gives a definition of a knot: “This psychiatry s---. Apparently what you’re feelin’ is not what you’re feelin’ and what you’re not feelin’ is your real agenda.”

Given we’re halfway through August my next update will be for September.

Thank you for sharing your process and your insights.

Ed,

It is four weeks since the last meeting of the Austin Trading Tribe, and I am realizing how much I need TTP. In the two weeks prior to the July 29th meeting, I feel a regression into old habits. I notice I turn away from certain feelings. I am letting the feelings I do not want to experience, run my life. This four weeks between meetings is giving me perspective into what life is like without TTP. I am seeing how much TTP helps me and improves my life, and how much I want to continue with it.

At our Austin Trading Tribe meeting of 7/29, all members again bring "proof of completion" of our projects. After each Tribe member presents his proof, everyone else in turn declares "Pass" or "No Pass." There is still a lot of "No pass" going around the room. I also receive a "No Pass" from the majority of my fellow Tribe members. At first I feel frustrated. I feel like I have worked hard on my project. But then Ed helps me to realize that when my fellow Tribe members give me a "No Pass," they are not rejecting me. They are truthfully working with me. They are supporting me. They are helping me to improve, to be more convincing, more direct and succinct in my proof of completion. When I look at it that way, I am actually glad I didn't get a "Pass" and am looking forward to doing a better job at the next meeting.

I see two completely opposite hot seat experiences. In the first, the Tribe member is unwilling to experience his feelings. He is unable to move forward with his hot seat experience. After of period of time without progress, both the member and the rest of the Tribe realize that TTP is not something that this Tribe member is ready to pursue and we all agree to part ways.

In the second hot seat of the evening, the member shows complete commitment. He fully immerses himself, without any reservations, into the process. He sometimes feels held down and smothered by his Trading Tribe project, and through the hot seat is able to uncover a school playground incident, as well as experiences with his grandmother that have the exact same feeling. The chief of another Trading Tribe is present, and he does a fantastic job guiding the process. The role players and support from within our own Tribe are tremendous. I can feel that the Tribe is thrilled to move forward from the first, unsuccessful hot seat of the night, to the second, where significant progress is made. Support and positive intentions fill the room.

Thank you for sharing your process and your insights.

 

for just one of many examples of rigorous scientific research that has attempted to see if and why talking to someone helps to relieve pain and help people live their lives. Evidence now abounds that talking to someone with a specific set of skills can frequently lead to huge improvements in psychic status and indeed change brain structure (see Norman Doidge's excellent book "The Brain That Changes Itself", particular attention to the chapter on psychoanalysis). We now "know" (as best as we can) that therapy not only works, but the early stages of understanding how it works are also beginning to show.

I might also question why, in your criticism of psychiatry in a number of posts, you have decided as if almost by definition that psychopharmacology is a product of evil drug companies? Whilst I agree that over prescription can be a sign of several things going awry (lazy medicine, gung ho advertising etc) it does not mean that the drugs don't help many patients with extremely difficult to manage psychological and organic problems. After all, patients initiate contact with doctors with full knowledge of the existence of psychopharmacology, and frequently request it.

The primary inconsistency that I would like to point to is that TTP whilst no doubt helpful for some people; has made no such inroads into its own effectiveness and still relies on an ad hoc "we know we work" assumption. Of note, this reminds me of the criticisms leveled frequently at Scientology.

When I read the pages of FAQ, I see the embryos of a religion. Underpinned by a faith in a process, collected around one person purporting to have "the answer," - the cornerstone of most religions. "The answer" has been well circulated by all religions since the dawn of man; accompanied by promises of eternal bliss to any willing believer. Subsequently, empowered by their own narcissism, religions often criticize their direct competitors by proclaiming to have "the best" solution to a person's problem. However, in my view, they are just offering a ready anesthetic from the pain of reality to those who elect to follow them. By fostering an addiction to faith, more adherence therefore becomes an end in itself. In most cases this is probably reasonably benign, but it is not science.

Thank you for the clip.

You might consider taking your feelings about <putting your interests into a contest> to Tribe.

Ed,

Thank you, I believe that is pretty good advice. Can you tell me why you decided to 'go public'
and become a mentor?

all the best,

Curious
 

FAQ is originally a response to a few questions about trading and the Trading Tribe. 

Thank you for the plate.

Fear of Speaking

Hey Ed-

Happy 64th!

My calendar now reads 2 years since discussing a new business with you at a Tribe meeting at your house.

I want to send a status report to FAQ and the status is that I’m too busy preparing a webinar for customers to write much.

My speaking engagements fill me with fear: heart pounding, stomach churning, tunnel vision -- fear.

My personal trading gets better as I take fewer risks there.

Best wishes to you in Austin

Thank you for sharing your process.  You might consider speaking about your fear of speaking.

HBD2U

Dear Mr. Seykota,

I wish you a happy birthday, good health and all the best to you!

Thank you.

I do not have experience using something else that is safe to substitute for the offending item. Everyone agrees before hand that the washcloth is the substitute for the offending item and the role play works effectively for the hot seat participant.

I want to attend a TT workshop as soon as possible.

You can watch this column for an announcement for another Workshop.

Oh, it feels so good to be done reliving that drama. It has been rewarding watching the progress others in the group choose to make. I am not sure if I brought this up last time, the TT process is dramatically improving my health. I have all these back, neck, and ankle issues that I long ago accept as my reality. Since letting go of the belief that "I am broken and damaged goods", they no longer serve me and with physical therapy are disappearing fast. I feel as though I am just scratching the surface of what I am able to give. Again, I am so thankful to have the tools and the opportunity I have.

Our CTA is almost done with the NFA registration. Prior to the twins I comfortably work about 50-60 hours a week. Now with the twins, it has been a distracted forty hour week. My aunt just started living with us, as a result I am finally able to get some work done in the evening and sleeping a little more. Our system is doing extremely well in this early summer's environment. I trade it more aggressively than we are going to offer and I am up over 110% since April. Much of the profit came from May's flash crash, we were in 20 markets and on the right side of 18 of them. It trades short term (5 day ave hold), long/short in 27 markets. I am happy. I love system based trading and the opportunities it provides investors. The sales, marketing, and operations seem like the right place for me. I feel lucky to be working with my business partner.

Thank you all for your support. I have not set time to report again.

Thank you for sharing your progress and your successes.

Then what are the rest of the books? I'd appreciate you'd let me know the titles of them.

You can check the Resources link at the top of the page for more books.

During this week’s session we brought in physical prototypes or documentation of our deliverables. We presented them assuming it was already the future target date but in the present tense. After each person gave his verbal report on his project, each other member of the team then give it either a “Pass” or “No Pass” and a reason for the “No Pass”. The exercise was valuable on several levels. It helped me clarify exactly what is my goal and its corresponding deliverables. It also triggered my built-in goal-seeking mechanism and I now have a high degree of confidence that I will achieve my target.

My main “aha” moment was from one of the hot seats of the session when I realized that everything that has happened to me, even as a child and however unpleasant they may have been, is the result of my intention.

Thank you Ed and my fellow Tribe members for your valuable insights, feedback and support.

Thank you for sharing your insights.

Two weeks later, he contacts me: his depression is gone. The second patient has been suffering for depressions for years, even required antidepressants. We have a meeting which lasts about one hour. After some weeks, the patient reports that after this one meeting the symptoms are gone.

3. I tell the story to a doctoral student and say “Two people report that they got healed of their depression after just one talk with me”. She answers “Say three: after I told you about my troubles and you received me a couple of weeks ago, also MY depression is gone”.

4. I take a walk with my youngest son. On the street, the mother of another child talks to me and suddenly she tells me about her worries regarding a teacher: she heard that she is rough to the children. I tell her that I am not aware of that, but I receive that she has a different issue: her fear of leaving her little son at the kindergarten for the first time. I tell her that it is quite OK to be afraid and to be sad about the separation from her child. As I depart, less than five minutes later, she tells me how released she is and how helpful our talk was. I remember just saying two or three sentences!

The interesting part is that I am mostly not doing TTP on them consciously. In fact, it takes me a huge effort NOT to receive people when they talk to me, and I do it only for teaching purposes with my Tribe.

Thank you for sharing your process and your successes implementing (AT) Alternative Therapy.

Clip: www.upcomingdiscs.com

I submit my TT ID for a new Tribe in the Ukraine.

Ukraine

Happy Sunday!

How rewarding and what a joyful experience.

The Whale Said "Thank You"

If you read a recent front page story of the SF (San Francisco) Chronicle, you would have read about a female humpback whale that had become entangled in a spider web of crab traps and lines.
She was weighted down by hundreds of pounds of traps that caused her to struggle to stay afloat.
She also had hundreds of yards of line rope wrapped around her body, her tail, her torso, a line tugging in her mouth.

A fisherman spotted her just east of the Farallon Islands (outside the Golden Gate) and radioed an environmental group for help.

Within a few hours, the rescue team arrived and determined that she was so bad off, the only way to save her was to dive in and untangle her.

They worked for hours with curved knives and eventually freed her.

When she was free, the divers say she swam in what seemed like joyous circles.

She then came back to each and every diver, one at a time, and nudged them, pushed them gently around...she was thanking them. Some said it was the most incredibly beautiful experience of their lives.

The guy who cut the rope out of her mouth said her eyes were following him the whole time, and he will never be the same.

May you, and all those you love, be so blessed and fortunate to be surrounded by people who will help you get untangled from the things that are binding you.

And, may you always know the joy of giving and receiving gratitude.

I pass this on to you, my friends, in the same spirit.

Thank you for the tail.

Hope you are having a great birthday.

Thank you.

Hi Ed!

Happy birthday friend. I trust that you are enjoying your day.

My wife and I are celebrating our 17th anniversary today with a picnic and a play.

I hope to see the next time I'm in Austin.

Thank you.

The Trading Tribe can help you with all sorts of releases btw, although they cannot be expressed as a power of 2. However, there are some releases that are not appropriate for Tribe Meetings.

I wonder PM would consider re-releasing "When I'm Sixty-Four" today by replacing the b-flat clarinet part with the banjo? You have homework.

Sixty-four is about 17.78 Celsius. On the other hand, in binary, I'm 1000000.

He then must be able to tie these three things together to be able to repeat the process over and over again even when it is not in his favor, discipline. How does one teach discipline? I am not sure one can as I believe it must come from within ones self but I don’t think one can do it alone. Not to sound contradictive but when one has that moment of “gee I could have had a V8”, even though it may have come from within, it was through external experiences of others that it was formed.

Long story short, I regret I did not come across your site until after the presentation since there are many good things I could have shared from it to help get the point across. I have shared your site with a few of the other members and they would like to know more about the TT.

Thanks for being there Ed. I loved the Whip Saw Song so much I posted it on my blog with this weeks wrap up. I also provided a link to your site as well.

Again, thanks,

Laugh loudly, Dance naked, Love all.

Thank you for sharing your process.

Dealing With Drawdowns

Dear Support Team,

I’m currently getting one of my inevitable drawn downs out of the way. This process evokes anger, sadness, depression and frustration, with frustrations being the dominant feeling. Unlike prior draw downs, I do not resort to self-medicating these feelings through breaking my system or other self-defeating behaviors; I do not blame others or feel sorry for myself; I stay the course and try to experience the feelings, which don’t feel good.

In particular, I wonder about my frustration. Perhaps its positive intention is to shift my focus from what the markets are doing to being more productive elsewhere. I’m a trader whose system does not call for any trades most days, yet I spend an inordinate amount of my time staring at the screens. On a few occasions a week, when a trade is imminent, this is called for. However, most of the time, I might as well be watching reality TV. I plan to spend more time working toward my commitment through marketing and less time watching the markets.

I want to thank those of you who encouraged me to join Toastmasters. I am now a member of a terrific local chapter and I’m scheduled to give my first speech this week.

Thank you for sharing your process.

Ed,

Happy Birthday.

Thank you.

Dear Ed!

Know what?

We met, when you where 46. I am 46 now.
You were born in the year of `46 and I at `64,
Today I send you love on your 64th Birthday.

18 years ago, we first met. You are 18 years older then I am, when I am your age now, you are 82.
If you switch those two numbers you know roughly, then my 28th was just around the corner, how old I was when we first met. Anyway have a good day, take care.

One thing you can count on - is getting older.

Hi Ed,

Just wanted to wish you a Happy Birthday tomorrow. I remember my very brief time in your Tribe at your home and thank you deeply for the insight and experience.

All the best, all the time.

Thank you.

I see the other Tribe member doing the same. We discuss how to better track our commitments. I suggest setting goals and follow up on them. My fellow Tribe member thinks that setting and refining goals and commitments is not a part of a Tribe process. We end up in a disagreement and go our separate ways.

I seem to attract interest of a couple of other people interested in TTP. We now have 3 members. We commit to excellence, personal growth and supporting and receiving support from each other. In addition my intentions for my Tribe are:

1. Materializing snapshots.
2. Gaining wisdom from the experience of materializing snapshots and our feelings.
3. Helping others to do the same.

Commitments:

1. We commit to regular meetings every 2-3 weeks for the next 4 months.

2. On our first 1-2 meetings we submit, clarify and refine our snapshots. We clarify processes on how to achieve our snapshots and the process of tracking the progress and validating completion.

3. At the following meetings we present our progress or lack of to the tribe. We use the Trading Tribe Process to experience feelings, which may hold us from achieving our snapshots.

4. We commit to reporting to Ed’s FAQ’s after every meeting.

Snapshots I would like to materialize before the first meeting are:

1. Balanced / surplus the family budget (currently expenses exceed income every month)

- When I am behind and I cannot afford something I feel like a failure.

2. Improved trading system (currently very crude trend-following system)

- I am not satisfied with my current system. I want it to be better, make more money, and have smaller drawdowns. My research is unfocused as I allow for many distractions. I sense that the feelings I have towards my system mirror feelings I have about myself - not good enough, average, and uncertain.

3. Have clients (currently trading family members funds)

- I move very slowly towards this goal. Sometimes I think I have nothing of great value to offer to clients. I think that they may be better off going to someone with 20 – 30 years of experience like you, Ed, or any of your very smart students who are in business longer than I.

4. Being in great physical shape (currently going through a period of not exercising consistently. I often overeat at night)

- When I am out of shape I seem to feel less happy with myself.

I commit to follow up with a report after the first meeting. My intention is to report until all the snapshots are fulfilled and then replace them with new ones. Please find my updated  Information Document attached.

Ed once again, thank you for the opportunity to learn from you and to be a part of such an amazing community.

You might consider taking your feelings about <not good enough> to Tribe

Sex and No Sex

Dear Ed,

I have a short report, I am not certain if it is appropriated for the FAQ:

On Friday I take the issue “I do not feel well” to the hot seat. As I accept the feeling I am overwhelmed by joy. The state is so beautiful that I do not want to leave it. I think “It is so much better than sex!”. At the end of the process I experience that I am not interested in sex, since the experience with this state is so much joyful.

The next two days I have sex with a lady 9 times, breaking all my records …

Rejection

Happy Birthday for the 7th Ed.

I continue to learn so much from you.

I find myself constantly thinking about intimacy and right livelihood. Thinking this way begins to permeate my life.

I try to identify the feelings of those around me

I try to feel my own feelings. I realize I may have many judges and blockages to work through.

I notice how my relationship with my wife and the circumstances in my life seems to be changing.

I have noticed rejection.

I have not slept with my wife for a long time. She has started a University Degree which is very intense and she is very busy and very tired as she continues to work at her part time job and be a good mother to my 3 children.

I feel some rejection as she is too tired and too busy to pay me attention.

I notice that I have a lot of rejection in my life, I have been rejected recently for a large number of jobs I have applied for.

I notice that my comments and contributions get rejected by colleagues at work.

The rejection feels like a punch in the stomach and I feel hot flushes in my neck and my jaw clenches.

I acknowledge and accept this feeling as a chance to grow and move towards right livelihood.

I wait for my right livelihood to appear.

My old behavioral pattern would be to get sucked back into the control centric model and attempt to manipulate, beg, sulk, demand or force my wife to be intimate with me, force people to listen to my comments, instead I now focus on my feelings, accept them and go with the flow.

I notice how my wife and I seem to be under more pressure and stress than ever, but we seem to fight less than before and I feel closer to her.

She seems happier and I also notice she shares her feelings more, she tells me about her guilt as her studies place more strain on those in the family and how she has less time to spend with the children. I receive her feelings. I acknowledge her.

I feel an urge to phone my Dad, I hardly ever call him.

We speak to each other about once every 3 months, usually he phones me.

I call him,

He is having a difficult time. He tells me about his own problems with his business and his car. I receive to the best of my ability. He is striving for personal growth through writing as per Katie Byron's "the works".

He is writing about his own feelings as I phone.

I believe I identify his feeling as that of rejection. I tell him I love and support him and accept him.

We have a good conversation and really connect.

I sense he feels a lot happier and more able to deal with his issues.

In my own life I feel happier and I now welcome experiencing rejection as a chance move me towards my right livelihood.

I also feel clarity in that I realize I have taken responsibility for my life.

I am responsible for the situations I place myself in through my own choices.

I am here to move towards my right livelihood which is to help and support those around me.

I commit to receive ALL feelings.

I acknowledge I have slip ups and I acknowledge I still have problems to work through, such as accepting my feelings of dislike for authority, of fear, of failure and I still need to address my feelings of rejection further.

I may be clumsy at working the intimacy model but but I remain committed, there is no going back.

It seems to be working.

Wednesday, August 4, 2010

The Expected Value of a Lucky Coin

Thank you for clarifying expectancy.

Thank you for teaching me SVO-p, forcing me to concentrate on the definition of my words and to ensure my communication is clear and simple.

Thank you for your risk paper, It is the most enlightening, simple and informative literature I have ever read on risk.

I follow along and replicate your examples in a spreadsheet.

I learn more from reading your concise, simple, risk paper than I do from many other books on the subject.

I read your risk paper many times and I grasp something new almost every time I read it.

I think about a lucky coin.

Your risk paper states under the "Non-Balanced Distributions and High Payoff's" paragraph

"for a 3:1 payoff, each toss yields an expected value of payoff-times-probability or 3/2"

You refer to the expected value being the same as the "luck-payoff product" in the Diversification paragraph.

The above text and your middle graph seems to imply this payoff-times-probability holds true for all cases of coin luck.

I agree with this for a 50% lucky coin.

I must respectfully dis-agree and challenge you on this for All cases of coin luck.

Compare the following two examples:

Example 1

I consider a bet of $10 with a 50% lucky coin.

If I bet heads and win, I have 3-times my $10 bet, plus the return of my original bet of $10, the total being $40.

If I lose, I lose $10

I have a 50% chance of both events, therefore my expected value is 0.5 times $40 (position after a winning toss ) less 0.5 times $10 (position after a losing toss) which equals $15

This is indeed payoff-times-probability or 3/2 of my original bet.

Example 2

I consider the same bet and payoff, but this time for a coin with 70% luck.

If I win I have $40 as before.

If I lose I lose $10 as before.

I have a 70% chance of winning and therefore I have a 30% chance of losing.

I know this is true as these events are mutually exclusive and represent the complete set of outcomes for the coin toss, assuming the coin doesn't land on it's rim.

My expected value of the 70% lucky coin is 0.7 times $40 (the effect of a winning toss) less 0.3 times $10 (the effect of a losing toss) which gives me an expected value of $25.

The payoff-times-probability value for this bet is 3-times-0.7-times-$10 which equals $21

Conclusion

The payoff-times-probability for a 70% lucky coin does not appear to be the same as it's expected value for all cases of coin luck, as demonstrated in the comparison of the above two examples.

I wish to experience the optimal bet fraction approaching luck at high payoffs.

I wish to do this by stepping through the values at various levels of luck utilizing your example.

I consider that actual trading may have low levels of luck and high levels of payoff so I believe it may be important to experience this by working through an example.

Are you able to confirm your formula for calculating the expected value of coin with say 70% luck?

I would appreciated your thoughts and correction if I am wrong.

Thank you.

Value based position sizing

I also wish to question your value based position sizing example in position sizing paragraph of the risk paper.

Your example of position sizing based on value does not anywhere show risking only 10% of the value.

I believe your example should read:

A million dollar account divides into twenty equal sub-accounts of $50,000 each for each stock.

The risk is 10% of the value of each sub-account, risking $5,000 on each stock.

Stock A position is $5,000 divided by $50 per share giving a position of 100 shares

If I'm correct, and your example omitted the multiplication of the sub-account by 10%, it's does not detract from the value of the paper as the risk basis position sizing is clearly superior to that of value based position sizing.

Willingness Testing

Dear Ed

I read the TT book,

I read the example whereby someone may walk off with your wallet if you are unwilling to feel anger.

I begin to understand and see the need to feel feelings.

I incorrectly assume that feeling feelings requires me to act on the feelings that come up, such as in the case of anger, to defend or vocalize my anger in order to protect myself, as in the wallet example above.

I have a drama whereby I vocalize my anger and I defend my boundaries as intensely as I can in "Screaming for intimacy" Mon, June 28, 2010

Ed chastises me.

I read post "Has trouble sticking to his system" Tues, July 13, 2010

I have an aha, Ed says "until you are willing to experience the feeling and let it go."

I realize that acting on a feeling is not required, just feeling it is.

I also realize from this same post that acting on some feelings may be a way to medicate or attempt to avoid the feelings that come up.

Ed identifies that I may have judgments about some feelings in "Sharing feelings" Mon, June 28 2010

I have an aha, I can't choose to feel only some feelings, I need to feel ALL my feelings and they are ALL equally important in moving me towards my right livelihood, even if (here's my judge again) they are "bad" feelings.

I have some confusion over the testing for willingness? Should I always receive, or only when someone indicates they wish to share feelings, or perhaps we should just go with the flow?

Please could you explain testing for willingness.

You might consider practicing willingness testing in your Tribe.

I am sorry if I am breaking a ground rule with this question ... that is not my intent.

Another View

I cried ....

I hope you enjoy Texas.

Thank you for sharing.

Ed,

I duplicated your results using the Simple Exponential Crossover system and the process destroyed my beliefs about system trading. If system optimization is based upon past performance, how can it help trade anything today?

Take care,

images/uploads/cst94-frenchman.jpg

Thanks to Ed and my fellow Tribe members for their support, insights, and encouragement.

Thank you for your report.  You might consider re-writing it in SVO-p.

Hi Ed,

What interests you less following your system (trading) or doing art? How about 20 years ago?

thanks for your attention,

curious

You might consider taking your feelings about <putting your interests into a contest> to Tribe.

Thank you for the clip.