Ed's FAQs November 11, 2009

Contributors Say (Quotes from Ed in Red)	Ed Says
Friday, November 20, 2009 Dreaming of Leading Dear Ed, Thank you for your continuing support. I have a dream after my last report. I am walking home and notice my neighbors following me. A small crowd gathers, some of them with weapons in their hands. No one says anything, but I get the sense that my neighbors no longer welcome my presence in their midst. I get a distinct feeling that I don't belong, and that it may be too late to pack and leave. I get a pending pogrom feeling. I find myself with my back against a chain link fence, facing some twenty men who arrange themselves in a semi-circle around me. I feel fear and confusion. I'm not sure what am I doing there, or what the men's intentions are. Suddenly, I say in a loud and clear voice, "OK, I'm not sure what I'm doing here. Here's what I want you to do. Starting from the left, I want each of you to say how you feel and what you expect out of this experience. I'll check in last." I'm running a Tribe meeting. The dream reminds me of Fiddler on the Roof. I rent the movie and observe my role model. Tevye likes to control his children, manipulate his wife, judge people and ignore warnings. Likes to complain to God about his poverty. Isn't clear on what he would do if he were rich: If I were a rich man, Ya ha deedle deedle, bubba bubba deedle deedle dum. All day long I'd biddy biddy bum. If I were a wealthy man. The other aspect of my dream, running a tribe meeting, feels really good. Not just as a way of dissipating conflict, but in general--it just feels right. I get a very clear sense of what I want to do: I want to run a management consulting business. I want to take TTP to the industry I know, software. My first step is to start a Tribe for engineers and see what kind of results I can get with this crowd. I take successive iterations of my bumper sticker to 17 people this week and solicit their feedback. Here is my current version. I welcome your feedback on it. I schedule the first meeting for Wednesday December 2. This feels real. I fear that I attract more people than I can handle in a tribe. I fear that no one shows up. I feel anxiety that I cannot complete a meeting in the 4 hours that I commit to. I feel anxiety that the meeting fizzles long before the 4 hours are up. I like all these fears. They are telling me what I need to work on. Assets: $572,492.56 Liabilities: $552,142.58 Net: $20,348.98 500oz goal: $570,000.00 I'm noticing a feeling of <the train I'm not on is gathering steam> when I look at gold vs. goal.	Thank you for sharing your process. When You Stop Dreaming of Being Rich and start dreaming of ways to serve others you get rich. Clip: http://www.brooklynvegan.com/ img/music2/fiddler.gif
Friday, November 20, 2009 Success Seeking vs. Failure Avoidance Dear Ed, I thought you would be interested in the real cost of the Failure Avoidance model. http://www.forbes.com/2009/11/17/tiger-woods- risk-entrepreneurs-management-wharton.html	Thank you for the article. Trend Traders follow their systems and have their feelings about it.
Friday, November 20, 2009 Building Rapport Dear Ed, Just my usual paying of respect and gratitude. I see this video on YouTube, it reminds me somewhat of TTP process, although I am not part of it. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1a-gBGcgRh0	Thank you for the clip. It seems to convey the principles, in a show-biz kind of way.
Friday, November 20, 2009 Defining Right Livelihood Hi Ed, I found this quote helpful to me in defining right livelihood. I appreciate your comments or anything you might add to clarify the concept of right livelihood. The master in the art of living draws no sharp distinction between his labor and his leisure, his mind and his body, his work and his play, his education and his recreation. He hardly knows which. He simply pursues his vision of excellence through whatever he is doing and leaves others to determine whether he is working or playing. To himself, he is always doing both. —James A. Michener Thank you for your continued support.	Thank you for the quote. The Definitions of Some Important Things like right livelihood and love vary from person to person and all talk about the same thing Clip: http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2007/02_1/Valentines/ LovingCouple_228x228.jpg
Thursday, November 19, 2009 Inspirational Thoughts Dear Ed, I saw this and thought it would be worth a few moments of your time. Wisdom (slide show) Wisdom is being true to our inner self - thus bringing harmony and peace into our lives. It's discovering a new idea or solution that meets everyone's needs. Wisdom is also honoring people and caring about their rights. It is reflected in the courtesy with which we treat others.	Thank you for the thoughts.
Thursday, November 19, 2009 Unemployment Breaks Out Dear Ed, I wonder what system produces this pattern?	Business provides jobs. When you squeeze business, the employees flow out. Businesses, like Lemons give up some life force when you squeeze them. Clip: http://www.mybadpad.com/wp-content/ uploads/2009/02/squeezing-lemon.jpg
Thursday, November 19, 2009 Hot for Charts Hi Ed, I miss your charts page. I wonder about vertical scale on typical charts. I notice that most chart designers start from a predefined size, and then scale the time series to fill that space as much as possible, stretching or shrinking the dollar / pixel ratio. With this approach, I can't tell, without looking at the vertical legend, how volatile the time series is. I wonder if using some measure of heat to set vertical scale might produce charts that can more clearly show how "hot" a series is. This approach would produce charts of varying height depending on the data.	Thank you for your suggestion. I am currently working to revive the stock charts page. You might consider framing volatility as a ratio of a moving average of ATR : price.
Thursday, November 19, 2009 News, Control and Chess Hi Ed, Thank you so much for writing the TT book. I write to ask and share my feelings. Please could you explain what you mean by “File the news” “Results = Intention” I believe I grasp the importance of this message. I see that in the ever evolving moment of now, we could have setbacks on the path to our objective, if we keep at it, we will eventually find a way to achieve our true desires or alternatively find an excuse for our lack of achievement, this is the long run outcomes of our true intentions. Another analogy, The mean will eventually emerge from a sample data set that is representative of the population even though there may be some outlying data values in the sample set. Would you agree that results do not necessarily = intention in the short run. For example: In a mutually exclusive situation, such as two players playing chess, they both intend to win, but this is only possible for one of them. Keep things in the moment of now. I can see this is very useful as it helps one to focus on what can be controlled, which is our actions now. The past is gone, we can only learn from it. If the future can be considered as a decision tree, with an infinite number of branches spreading out from now, one can all to easily get caught up in considering possibilities that may never eventuate or end up giving them undue weight. All the could have’s, would have’s and should have’s and the thoughts about, if this happens then that etc, etc consume our precious time and the brain processing power. I am grateful for the “Aha” to receive peoples feelings, especially my wife and children’s. I believed I was emotionally stable but after reading trading tribe and some introspection I realize I may have some issues to take to the tribe (I don’t have one yet, except my own essential family one.) I have a lot of fear: Fear of conflict, fear of failure, fear of being alone, fear of not being accepted, fear of being disliked. I notice the fear in my trading, I should stick with the trend, I see a breakdown in the chart, I anticipate a retracement, Why don’t I stick with the moving average, It’s too long term, I close out my position at the worst possible time, the market rallies and passes through the resistance level and the trend continues up. I fear being left behind, I jump back in except now I have lost a couple of percent of return + transaction costs. I definitely notice this fear has affected my career. I often suppress my feeling and bow out in conflict and I typify the analogy “Nice guys finish last”. So I guess this fits your saying “everybody gets what they want” I want to avoid conflict and I want to be liked, so I lose to get what I want, even though this is NOT what I really, really want, but instead it’s what FRED wants. I also seem to find I have a lot of anger. I always seem to get angry at my 3 children. I ask, tell, and then finally order them and they still don’t co-operate. I am forced to act and punish them. I don’t believe I mind getting angry so much it’s just that I really don’t want to get angry, my stomach tightens up. It’s like there is a football in there. My jaw pulls tight. I end up erupting and shouting, my voice goes hoarse. The neighbors can even hear. I bellow at the kids and send them to the naughty spot. It seems to work temporarily (if I get angry) but eventually we end up in the same situation again, it seems to be a kind of sinusoidal cycle. I have recently tried to enjoy and accept the feeling of being angry (A bit of DIM process I guess). I admit it certainly brings a new dimension to the situation. I don’t lose control as much but it doesn’t seem to have changed anything except I am a bit more in control of myself. This brings me to the next problem, Control - I seem to like things to go according to my view of how things should be done, my wife calls me a bit of a control freak, this doesn’t bother me too much. She has helped me to relax compared to my youth. I do not worry so much about how things work out now. We will get there in the end kind of attitude and this has certainly proven true but perhaps I still need to work on this issue. Thank you for providing the TSP project, the EcoNowMics and all the hours and hours of tutorials which guide anyone willing along the path to enlightenment. I would like to thank you for sharing your knowledge freely helping provide a path of enlightenment for anyone seeking knowledge. I don’t believe there is anyone else so willing to freely share there knowledge, but you have done it in such a way in which it will only be found by those willing to seek it. Yours with gratitude.	As essential rules for trading, File the News comes right after Stick to the System. If you have back tested your system there is no need to watch the news, making it irrelevant and therefore one might consider the way to deal with a "hot news flash" is to "stash it in the trash." Fascination with the news is consistent with wanting to predict the "future" and with wanting to control things. In the case of the chess, the intention of playing a game is to have either a winner and a loser or to have a draw. Intentions = Results. Both players might have a thought of winning or a goal of winning or a desire to win. At the end of the game, we find out the intentions. In Chess, as in Life those who really intend to win develop mastery of the subject. Clip: http://meignorant.com/files/images/ angry_kid_playing_chess.jpg
Tuesday, November 17, 2009 Wants to Attend Workshop / IV Tribe Hello, I was trying to get admission to the Incline Village trading tribe meeting. I have read Ed's book and attended a meeting in [City]. Please let me know if this is possible. Also, is information on your website about the cost of the April TTP workshop ?	The Incline Tribe is currently on vacation. Consider checking the website for updates on the April Workshop.
Tuesday, November 17, 2009 Doing the Math Hi Ed, I work on your exp. MA crossover exercise. How do you arrive at 32,716,679.04 by compounding starting equity 1,000,000.00 by 10% p.a.? I used Kn = K0 * ((p / 100) + 1)n thus 1,000,000 * ((10 /100) + 1)^23.25 = 9,170,223.697 Thanks	You are using an annually compounding formula. You might consider using a formula for continuous compounding.
Tuesday, November 17, 2009 Moving Forward With Trading Dear Ed, It is a good week. I am distracted with twenty hours of work training in addition to my normal workload. Even with that I am still able to log 15.5 hours studying. I feel that I can up my time commitment. Things are progressing well. Thanks again for being out there. On Sunday, it helps motivate me to study for over four hours. I feel good about hitting Nov goals. See below: Nov 2009: 1. I purchase trading software. 2. I read two books on technical trading. I get comfortable with terminology and theories. 3. I utilize software. I create a trading system that I successfully back test. 4. I work two hours everyday on creating this system. 5. I open my futures trading account. Wow, reposting that makes me feel like I need to get on it to do it right.	Thank you for sharing your process.
Monday, November 16, 2009 Silicon Valley Tribe Hi Ed, I attach the TTID for Silicon Valley Tribe. The intention of SVCT is to take TTP to the Information Technology community. I notice that issues that come up in TTP, and the resources TTP offers, transcend vocations. Like a traveler who returns from a foreign continent of trading with valuable knowledge, I want to share it with the citizens of my native software land.	Welcome Silicon Valley
Monday, November 16, 2009 Succeeding with Testing Discovering New Feelings Hello Ed, I continue to re-test my system by purchasing Meta-Stock and by trial & error program and test my system. Essentially I am systematizing in a much more rigorous way, the "system" which I had been trading and had haphazardly tested before. The purpose is to gain faith in the expectancy of the system and hopefully improve it before using it again with real $. I am happy with how it is going, which is in stark contrast to my experience in the past when I would experience high levels of frustration, anger and disillusionment. Thank you for your support.	Thank you for sharing your process.
Monday, November 16, 2009 Progress Report Dear Ed, Account - up 3%. I also made a lot of research breakthroughs. Thanks to other members I found BeeSoft - which means I improve my learning curve. Microsoft was dragging me down. I am much happier working on a Mac. The company did not sell last week. There is progress in the selling area. This week's bumper sticker has changed. I work at precision. I've been measuring while cooking. I do my stretching exercises as precisely as possible. I discover that I prefer cooking and exercising without a set recipe. I enjoy improvisation. I focus on closure and precision. Closure is making progress. Several things came through for me. I should be achieving some Completion this week. There will always be more things waiting for Closure. 6 days Gym & Stretching Zero Travel 15 hours research.	Thank you for sharing your process.
Monday, November 16, 2009 System Design Hi Ed, I appreciate you being on my support group. At the workshop I committed to: 1. Solving my dilemma on the amount of risk in my portfolio. 2. Implementing steps to make my methodology a testable system. At the workshop, Ed tells me there is a non-mathematical answer to (1). The bliss point is not a result of math. The bliss point is derived from my own feelings. I also realize that the experience of gradually piling on additional correlated positions as equity builds and then having them all roll over at once is a symptom of the start dependency problem and lack of a coherent purge strategy. So here are the steps of my journey to date: The feelings resulting from my performance that I have to resolve are: The feeling that a drawdown is too large when the bulk of my positions turn at the same time. The belief that a missed dollar of profit is as bad as realized dollar of loss. A strong urge to protect my trading stake, which provides my livelihood. The first "AHA" I have is a result of the presentations on systems dynamics. In the presentation, one curve of increasing slope is presented which represent the results of positive compounding. Another curve of negative decreasing slope represents losing a fixed percentage of capital. To me, these are the two roads my portfolio can travel. The increasing positive curve is all good, no matter what the rate, the negative all bad. So I get the strong feeling that for me, bliss results from keeping the portfolio off the negative "road" . Framed this way, I approach how to minimize the probability of being on the negative curve. One way to minimize loss is to quickly cover enough of the position at a profit sufficient to protect the original capital. E.g. buy at $10, stop at $8, protect by selling half at $12. Another way is to maximize the expectation formula: *(profit probability of profit)-(loss(1-prob. Of profit))* Not sure what to plug in for profit or probability of profit I examine capital protection strategy first. With this table I can quantify the cost (pain) of taking profit vs. the pleasure of knowing original capital is protected. I find this quite helpful in determining my "bliss point" strategy. I am also aware the probability of an xrisk move is a longer tail distribution than a standard bell curve. Without a back testable system yet, I wonder if any of you have insights on what size trend capture is "typical"? My intuitive experience leads me to believe that most trends end with a 25-30% drawdown to the exit stop and a captured move of 4risk is representative. As I forlornly look at the foregone profit column I realize: "Hey, it's not that bad!' - profits taken are available for immediate re-investment. - the likelihood that taking profits occurs quickly at low ATR multiples implies a high annual ROR. I would glad to hear any insights, perspectives, and thought you may have, particularly regarding characteristics of good trend following systems: % of trades that are losers. Avg size of winning trades in trend following systems, compared to risk. Any information that would get me in the ballpark on these matters until I get a back-testable system.	Thank you for sharing your process. I'm not sure what you mean by "bliss point." Bliss is another name for an overall system metric such as MAR. The "uncle point" is the point at which a trader calls it quits and abandons his plan. Your use of an expectation formula such as Expectation = (profit * probability of profit) - loss * (1- prob. of profit) indicates you feel you can "predict" the probability of an outcome. Trend Traders do not attempt to predict the non-existing future; they stay in the now and respond to trend changes, in the moment of detection.
Monday, November 16, 2009 Implementing Variation Accounting Dear Support Team, After comments from others, I have added columns that calculate the actual differences between the system and my actions as well as making it clearer the direction of my risk in the FX markets. By doing this I notice that the % variance for risk taken is different for the % variance for bet size and I am investigating the discrepancy. I am disappointed with this version because the data is incomplete. Switching to futures from CFDs and then measuring variance has highlighted the poor quality of my futures data and columns I & J are not accurate enough. I have entered the data that I currently have along with the sources. I downloaded CSI on Friday night but have not been able to spend any time learning how it works so this week I will read the manual and start training. My first exercise will be to learn how to extract contract data and use it for the columns in my variance file. Then I need to study how the CSI methodology works for creating continuous contracts. I will create some contracts in different markets myself using Excel and then compare them against CSI's. I am not too concerned if their methodology is not how I would do it but I need to understand their process. Finally I need to learn how to link the new data into Mechanica. The data work frustrates me because it is delaying me from accurately back-testing in a wider range of markets. This week I have also noticed that I need to measure variance against how many points / ticks I gain or lose when the contracts roll into new delivery months. I have added the columns for these numbers but will not be able to complete them until I have the data working. This has also made me realize that I do not have any specific rules for when to roll into new contracts so I need to test some different rules. Gradually I am breaking down all the different components of my system so that I can measure my compliance against them. Thank you for your support and I welcome any feedback.	Thank you for sharing your process.
Sunday, November 15, 2009 Workshop Feedback - Selling Hi Ed, Thank you for your feedback and your help clarifying my commitment. Thank you for your continuing support. The top of the list includes writing code for other people and helping other people debug their code. It trails off quickly from there; the only other money-making entry is about $5,000 I make from manufacturing and selling R/C auto-gyros. I am pretty good at not spending time on the bottom of the list. Lately, I'm not so good at doing the top entries. I notice that I tend to get add-on pilot certifications when I'm between jobs. I am spending about 3 hours per week working on my flight instructor certificate now and notice a lot of insights about growth-growth relationships, coaching, control and sending people on solo flights. The deals I make with my startups are annual salary and some stock options. Early in my career I feel a lot of excitement about options. As I gain more experience, I notice that I have no experience with options that pay. I start negotiating harder for cash than for options. The relationships I seek to establish with these companies (or individual bosses) are parent-child relationships. As I see it now, I seek in them substitutes for my dysfunctional relationship with my father. I seek out companies whose options don't pay out. In a number of cases, I am the last employee a company hires before going out of business. As I'm gaining more clarity on what I want and what I can contribute, I notice thinking about more advisory roles I can play. I notice contemplating adult-adult relationships or even mentor-student relationships. I wonder about working with venture capital firms to help their portfolio companies sharpen their focus, as well as with their due diligence process before investing. <selling myself> brings up two distinct sets of feelings. One is about <marketting myself> the other is about <selling out>.	You might consider taking your feelings about <selling> to Tribe. An Agreement of Sale provides a framework for you to provide a service and receive financial acknowledgment Clip: http://www.devin-hastings.com/ SALES%20AGREEMENT.jpg
Sunday, November 15, 2009 Workshop Feedback - Forming a Fund Dear Support Team, Thank you for your ongoing support. I appreciate all comments and criticisms openly. I continue to focus on company set-up and establishing agreements. Topics of focus: 1) Articles of formation and other initial company documents 2) Pro-forma financials 3) Marketing presentation 4) Website registration and basic website while this is extremely basic, I show my mission statement on the home page 5) Client Agreement Focus moving forward: 1) I intend to continue system back-testing and optimization 2) I intend to read the book "Teach Yourself C# in 21 Days" and begin learning to program in this language. Does anyone have any other suggestions for the best resources or reference materials to learning C#? 3) I intend to assemble a package of documents to send to my current shareholders 4) I intend to get the notary to sign my articles of formation early this week	Thank you for sharing your process.
Sunday, November 15, 2009 Starting to Back-Test Hello Team, I have selected my software for my trading program. I already have Metastock and have been using that for sometime. I also now have Trading Blox to allow me to back-test. I will need help going forward, however I am interested in the Turtle Trading program and Trading Blox does have that software available. I, of course, will have to input my parameters. My next step is to begin market selection. I prefer to use ETF's and will need to find some markets that are not closely correlated. Regarding my son, I am free to manage myself and my money. He suggested that I "go with the flow." Thank you for any comments, suggestions and your willingness to continue to support me! I sincerely appreciate it!	You might consider starting your explorations with Excel - until you get a good sense of how trading systems work.
Sunday, November 15, 2009 Opening to Intimacy Chief, I meet someone during a scientific meeting. After 5 minutes she tells me about very intimate worries and says "I never told this to someone before". I keep wondering ... My son tells me that, very deep inside, he is afraid of me. I feel deep pain and shame. I tell him how wrong I feel about my acts. I apologize. I feel guilty about my wife. I let the feeling flow. I do not remember crying that loud ever before. I realize that I am not responsible for her life. I feel released. Thank you for sharing the road with me.	Your son telling you he is afraid of you indicates he is getting comfortable with you enough to tell you.
Sunday, November 15, 2009 Workshop Feedback - Designing a System Dear Ed and Members of my Support Team, Thank you all for your ongoing support, feedback and insights. Since my last report, I work on my risk category and system objectives. It is challenging. And it appears to me that these are areas that need refinement as I gain more insight and experience. When I begin to do this exercise, I feel fear and worry of not doing it right and subsequently feel fear and insecurity of loosing a lot of my money. I consider my beliefs about futures market, the time / skills I have to develop and implement the system, and how much capital I can commit to such a system without altering my life significantly. I have discussions with my wife and kids (my essential tribe), gain clarity and more insights about fear / worry as my potential allies. As of this writing, I feel calm, confident and less fearful. I classify myself in the low risk, medium - high reward category. My system objectives are: MAR 0.8 - 1.0, Annual return of >= 50% of trading capital, Draw down of =< 25% of trading capital, Thank you for your support. I appreciate your suggestions, criticism, insights.	Your projections of 50% return and 25% drawdown indicate a MAR of 2.0 - that is pretty far above what most professional managers are realizing.
Friday, November 13, 2009 Child Musician Dear Ed, I thought you would enjoy this music video. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v= D-mMUplpts8&NR=1&feature=fvwp	Thank you for the video.
Friday, November 13, 2009 Workshop Feedback - From Approval to Income Thank you for your support. My balance sheet at the end of this week is: Assets: $576,374.59 Liabilities: $552,142.58 Net: $24,231.01 500oz goal: $552,000.00 I rewrite my personal web pages in SVO-p. I notice a lot of difficulty with a couple of the pages, particularly the one that refers to my army experience. Every time I find a passage I cannot transcribe into SVO-p, I find a feeling, or an experience, I'm not willing to deal with. In the page I state reasons for taking up an unusual hobby. I notice that the reasons I give (lack of time, lack of space, etc.) miss the point. I stall for a week. I stop logging "dailies." I speak with my wife and with a number of others from my support team. The overarching memory that comes up in these conversations is me saying, "look at me! I can do neat tricks!" and not expecting anyone to believe that. I feel that I'm peddling something that is of dubious interest, all the while downplaying something valuable that I have. I want to discover what that valuable something is, so I can stop trying to use parlor tricks as a way to get through life.	Thank you for sharing your process. Some People Work for Approval. Some Work for pay. Some Like to be of Service to Others Clip: http://deadon.files.wordpress.com/2007/ 02/lms_pageant_clapping.JPG http://evankessler.files.wordpress.com/2008/ 11/paycheck.gif http://darkjive.files.wordpress.com/2009/ 02/soup-kitchen.jpg
Friday, November 13, 2009 Workshop Feedback - From Control to Flow Dear Ed and Supporters, Thank you all for the excellent feedback, it is very important for me. Regarding experience of the positive intention of control, this week I made some good progress, as far as I understand. I faced several situations and I am trying to learn with each one: One of my sons (4 year-old) was crying because he could not find his toy to take to school. The crying noise interrupts me on a phone call. My first thought was to go there and tell him to stop crying. I stopped just beside him and suddenly I told myself: "you just can't control that. It is his feelings! " After that I fell some frustration. Frustration mainly because I could not control the situation. Right now I am fine with that. Yesterday I went through another situation and performed much better. My wife could not go to school to pick my son (4 year-old) so I went there to pick him up. The point is I went with my motorcycle and because of that I explained to him he could not go back home with my motorcycle (of course). It was necessary to take a taxi and I would go just beside the taxi, following the car. He started crying a lot, because he did not want to get into the taxi. I was in a hurry, but I could explain to him that it was ok, if he didn't want to go, no problem, we should stay there and wait for my wife to fetch him by car. After some minutes of thinking, he makes sure that I would follow the taxi with my motorcycle and then he decides to go. That was really great, I just let him decide what to do, and it worked ! Today is my oldest son's birthday, he is turning 7. I wake up and say: Happy birthday supporter of (our favorite soccer team)! After that he says: I am not a supporter of your team, I support another one. That just paralyzed me, I do have a problem with that, I cannot understand how my son can support another team. Anyway I just stopped and did not argue over that. Regarding my system yesterday I received a signal and executed it without any conflict and that makes me feel happy! The important thing is that I am committed with all the signals, I do not control the signals, my system does it for me, and I can see the positive intention of control related with that, which is to keep all the parameters up to date ! Life is good!	Thank you for sharing your process. When You Stop Controlling ... You Can Start Relating Clip: http://gandt.blogs.brynmawr.edu/files /2009/03/childleashwoman.jpg http://i.ehow.com/images/a04/ou/kb/ controlling-cholesterol-child-200X200.jpg
Friday, November 13, 2009 Intention = Result Thought you might enjoy this clip. flatley.wmv (Movie)	If something happens, it's probability is 10%
Friday, November 13, 2009 Moving On Ed, I sense a feeling. I dislike it a lot. No Tribe meeting the next two weeks. I have to do it alone. I retire. I open the faucet. I start crying, and after some instants I laugh loud. Fred talks. I realize what a coward I am. No guilt. Just assume responsibility. I talk to my wife. We have different expectations. I move to an apartment. I commit to give her and the children all my support. To serve them is my right livelihood.	Thank you for sharing your process. When You Let Go of the Feeling of having to struggle ... You Make Space ... to attract something else. Clip: http://www.draconika.com/ gallery/140.JPG http://hotelimaging.com/sitebuilder/ images/Couple_on_Sail_Boat-553x358.jpg
Thursday, November 12, 2009 Reading The Trading Tribe Ed I feel grateful to have in my possession 1 of 1,000 of edition 2 of “The Trading Tribe.” I am only 30 pages in. Clearly this is no ordinary book. I have been studying the TTP FAQ for several months. Right livelihood - moving toward it - process steps - I am taking steps toward productivity and right livelihood. SVO-p Gratitude – feel - I - present I have been in the 12 Step AA program for 3 ½ years. I am sober since May 15, 2006. AA Program process – get sober – I – present Discomfort with SVO-p dissipates with form process Alone – working – Bind to me and re-integrate Tribe - Listen to Fred - Acknowledge Fred & CM - Object = Form Breath work - Meditate - Integrate - live in present Sender - Sends/releases pent up feelings - object = concept = becoming aware of k-nots -present location of k-nots Field of acknowledgement - relentless validation - tension release Drums - played - centers focus - integrates - magnetic - settles group into a groove - creates a common pathway - present tense Fatigue - relief - sleep - gratitude Start Trading Tribe - Read The Trading Tribe - practice processes to best of ability alone - gain insights - look for others to share process Sender / receiver - one person doing both sending and receiving - slowing it down - create group of “invisible counselors” (Graham, Seykota, Buffett, Rogers …) - stay with present Thanks, Ed.	OK.
Wednesday, November 11, 2009 Feelings About the Breathwork Weekend Ed, Although I am interested in Breathwork for quite some time now, when the Breathwork weekend is announced on the website I find myself putting off sending in my application. I finally write the essay and I notice feelings coming up as I go through the process. First I notice feeling fear, anxiety and dread before I actually write the essay. This morning I woke up and remembered this exact feeling when I was in elementary school. I had received a bad grade on my report card and on the way home I felt fear, anxiety and dread knowing when dad got home I was going to get a whipping but hoping somehow something would happen to spare me from this punishment. It didn't. The next feeling I experienced is the feeling of I hope I am accepted, did I wait too long, is the weekend already full, is my essay good enough to pass. Next was the feeling did I pick the right issue to work on, is this one the most important, or is there another issue deeper that I will get more value out of working on. I also notice some fear of what the weekend will uncover. Earlier in the week I notice feeling shame as if I had done something wrong. I was surprised by this and wondered just where that came from. I realize I have this fear of being found out like there is something way back there deep in my mind I do not want other people to find out about. It seems I feel these feelings one at a time, I feel the first one then it goes away and then awhile later the next feeling steps up, I feel it and it goes away and then later the next one comes up until I get to work this morning and get busy at my job and forget about them. I just wanted to write about my experience of applying for the Breathwork weekend. I looked up some definitions on the web to see if I can find a more appropriate word for what I felt and came across dread. Somehow I had forgotten this word and don't recall even hearing it in years - but dread seems to be the appropriate description I was feeling walking home from school that day and many others days.	Thank you for sharing your process. The Breathwork Weekend provides an opportunity to explore such feelings on a deep level. Ability and willingness to experience these feelings is essential. If you are willing, the feelings transmute to insights; if you are unwilling, the k-nots that associate with these feelings can gain additional mass. As preparatory for the Breathwork Weekend, you might consider taking your feelings about <dread> to Tribe. Dread 1. extreme fear or apprehension. 2. reluctance to experience something. 3. deference or awe. Clip: http://www.mikestewartseminars.com/ images/call_reluctance_montage.jpg
Wednesday, November 11, 2009 Japanese Azaleas and Andy Rooney Dear Ed, I thought you would enjoy the quotes: Azaleas (Slide Show)	Thank you for the words of wisdom.
Wednesday, November 11, 2009 Developing a System Dear Support Team, I have attached my new version of the Variation File. I am happier with this version but would welcome any feedback. I realized in producing this version that it needs explicit links to my rules file and references to the testing files so I am working on that now to include in the next version. I also realized in producing this version that I really need to have back-adjusted data for the futures contracts that I can rely-on instead of using spot and individual contract data so I am going to order either CSI or Pinnacle data this week. I am leaning towards CSI and it would be really useful to know if anyone has any experience of using them. I am finding that the more I think about the file and what variance actually means, the more I am able to indentify ambiguity and address it. Using Mechanica has had a similar effect because I am finding that the difficulty in matching system results is actually coming from my own lack of precision and not from any real problem with the software. Thank you for the support and feedback I have received. It's much easier doing this kind of work when you don't feel that you are on your own!	You might consider adding a couple columns to your report to represent variations.
Wednesday, November 11, 2009 Teaching His Son About Responsibility Tonight I had a long talk with my son about intentions versus causality. I didn't say it, I didn't think of it at the time, but the punch line, the summation of the message was to ask him to consider his responsibility in his own life. It's the opener for the next part of the conversation. He has this peculiar interaction with his mother where she gives him all kinds of instructions (chores, tasks, challenges etc.) and he gets angry / frustrated / overwhelmed, feels defensive and starts crying. It's amazing to watch because the form is so solidified (calcified?). And this form is unique to his relations with his mother (and close family). He doesn't do it at school, sports etc. Tonight I was with him, literally right next to him, as this interaction played out. I wanted to show him how he was being manipulated. I tried to do this while accepting him exactly as he was. I tried to do this without trying to make him stop crying or cheer up or anything else. Watching him cry always troubles me, I am reminded of my own feelings of powerlessness and frustration. But crying seems to serve him a different way so I don't want to force him to change anything, only give him the opportunity to see things differently. A nudge, not a shove. At a certain point he got tired of the conversation so I read Harry Potter to him for 45 minutes and fell asleep next to him. Now how cool is that?	Thank you for sharing your process. Sometimes the best way to teach others is by working on ourselves. You might consider taking your feelings about <wanting your son to be responsible> to Tribe.