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September 15 - 30, 2008

 

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Questions

(Quotes from Ed in Red)

Answers

September 30, 2008

 

Wants an Effective Method


Dear Mr. Seykota;

I writing this email to seek your advise.

In March 08 I was given an account worth $100,000.00 to trade. My net returns year to date are 36.9% after 50% of performance fee.

Now, I want to raise more money what is the most effective way to do that?

All my experience has been in the stock market.

Sincerely,

I wonder if you can  define what you mean by the term, effective.

 

In the meanwhile, you might consider repeating what seems to work for you: namely, you can  "was given" another account.

Tuesday, September 30, 2008


Article on Crowd Behavior


Hi Ed,

Here is an article on crowd behavior:

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20080930/

lf_nm_life/us_financial_psychology

Best to you,

OK.

Tuesday, September 30, 2008

 

Wants Help

 

Ed,

After letting my emotions drive my trading, fighting with my wife, and neglecting my children. I realize that everything I have been doing to better myself is not enough. I need something more, something different. I begin reading the Trading Tribe book, again. This time it makes more sense. This time it describes me better. This time I’ve been doing all of the “right” things (church, sobriety, therapist, friends, family) and I can see clearly that it is not enough. As I read, it feels as though the solution is in my hands. It is truth. It makes sense. I feel relief.

The next morning, I wake up, and encourage myself to feel. I begin to feel sick to my stomach. I rapidly make a decision to not feel this now, but recognize that I need to tend to this soon.

I question whether or not to trade. It occurs to me that the trend will continue whether I’m in or out. I place a buy stop above the market. When I get to work, I check my account. I am up significantly.

I tell my wife about my experience, realization, and decision. She is unsure of the idea of starting a tribe. I support her feelings of uncertainty.

I explain to her that I don’t want to hurt her, my children, or myself any longer, and that I believe a tribe will help.

Thank you for sharing your process.

 

You might consider taking your feelings about <wanting help> to Tribe.

 

 

 

 

One Of Santa's Helpers

 

might like to join your Tribe

 

 

Clip: http://images.buycostumes.com/mgen/

merchandiser/20939.jpg

Monday, September 29, 2008

 

Ready for Change

 

Ed,

Thank you for your consistent example.

 

I'm ready for a change and willing to commit to this path to advance the growth of others and myself. God, church, AA, counseling, friends and family ... are not enough. I need a tribe.

OK. You know what to do.

Monday, September 29, 2008

 

Swearing about Profits

 

I’m so tired of learning lessons. My emotional relationships are playing out in the market. Up, down, inside out, sideways. For moments its calm, cool, clear … and then the perfect storm! I’m out w/ a profit, but watch the market turn around w/o me. F---! I’m a winner and I feel like a f---ing loser. Now if that isn’t my life I don’t know what is. God d--- it. I want a tribe, and all I've created are excuses.

 

Can you believe that crock of s---? I never see cussing on trading tribe. I wonder if that’s because you clean it up? So my account is up 60% and it should be up 100% and growing. Safe and sound, winning, better than I've ever been … and I feel like and act like a loser.

 

This has got to stop. Thanks for showing me how to make money, now I'd like to take the actions necessary to learn how to benefit from my pain, sadness, anger, and fear. I’m sorry I haven’t started a tribe sooner.

Thank you for sharing your #@**&^! process.

Monday, September 29, 2008

 

Questions on the Bail-Out

 

Chief Ed,

I am requesting that you post to FAQ some of your commentary on the current economic drama.

Please reference the Responsibility Model.

Candidate Questions:

0. Who is responsible for the OTC mortgage-derivatives situation --- and related consequences?


1. Are the American people collectively really getting what we want?

Sincerely,

0. In TTP we hold you responsible for your experience of the situation.

 

1. In the advance stages of addiction, people enter denial and do whatever they have to do to secure the next fix.

 

The addictive fiat-money system upon which we base our commerce is inherently unstable and likely well overdue for replacement.

 

Congress is also in denial and has no desire or method to dismantle the FED by smooth transition.

 

 

When All the Carpenters In Town

 

sell their tools to buy heroin,

 

you can get a pretty good deal on tools

 

although you might not find

much of a market for re-sale.

 

Clip: http://www.mapleleaf.ie/

Carpenters%20tools.jpg

Monday, September 29, 2008


Trend Following Song by Nirvana


Hi Chief,

 

This particular song "Come as you are" a hit by Nirvana - fits trend following particularly well

 

Come
As you are
As you were
As I want you to be
As a friend
As a Trend (friend)
As a known enemy
Take your time
Hurry up
The choice is yours
Dont be late
Take a rest
As a friend
As a known enemy
enemy ah Come
Doused in mud
Cept in bleach
As I want you to be
As a trend
As a friend
As a known memory ah
Memory ah
Memory ah
Memory ah

And I swear
That I dont have a gun
No I dont have a gun
No I dont have a gun

enemy ah
enemy ah
enemy ah
enemy ah {dont have a gun}

And I swear
That I dont have a gun
No I dont have a gun
No I dont have a gun
No I dont have a gun
No I dont have a gun

Thinking of Trend Following as a "known enemy" works for me ...

 

Warmest

OK.

Monday, September 29, 2008


New Currency!


Ed,

This is the new currency the Treasury plans to print to pay for the $700B Wall Street bailout!






 

Hmmm...  I hear the new specie is in modern digital form, to save the inconvenience and expense of printing it on hard paper.

September 27, 2008

 

Changing Methods


Dear Ed:

I'm a personal trader from [Country], I'm very happy to read your FAQ, Here is main problem cover my entire trading life .

I changing my system parameters all the time. Once I meet some problem in future market, I will do some back-test , and always, I will find the best parameters changed, so I always changing it according, I know it's not right .

I use breakout system with 2 parameters. I know the methods to get Best & Reliable F (X,Y) , my question is : how to overcome the best parameters changes. I don't want to change my parameters anymore .

do you have good suggestion , I'm appreciate your wisdom.

Best Regards!

You might consider taking your feelings about <changing methods> to Tribe.

 

Also, you might consider changing your parameters twice tomorrow, four times the following day, eight times the day after that, and so forth.

 

Let me know how many days you can keep this up.

Friday, September 26, 2008

 

Wants a Piece of the Pie

 

Ed,

 

I don't know who actually came up with this, but he /or she should probably be the next US Treasury Secretary. (After thinking about it - I cannot find anything but positives here.)
Cheers,

 

-----



I am completely against the $85,000,000,000.00 AIG bailout. Instead, I am in favor of giving $85,000,000,000 to America in the form of a "We Deserve It Dividend".

To make the math simple, let’s assume there are 200,000,000 bona fide U.S. Citizens over 18. The population is about 300,000,000 +/- counting every man, woman and child. So, 200,000,000 might be a 'fair stab' at adults 18 years old and up.. So divide the 200 million into $85 billion /and that equals $425,000.00 ((each)) !!

My simple plan would give $425,000 to every person over 18 as a "We Deserve It Dividend". This would NOT be tax free, of course. So let’s assume an average tax rate of 30%. Every individual 18+ has to pay $127,500.00 in taxes. That sends $25,500,000,000 right back to Uncle Sam.

This means every adult over 18 has $297,500.00 in their pocket. A husband and wife - has $595,000.00. What would you do with $297,500.00 to $595,000.00 in your family?

Remember this is for every adult U S Citizen 18+ including the folks who lost their jobs at Lehman Brothers and every other company that is cutting back now. And of course, for those serving in our Armed Forces as well...

If we’re going to do an $85 billion bailout, let’s bail out every adult U S Citizen over 18 !!

As for AIG –
• Just liquidate it.
• Sell off its parts.
• Sell off the real estate.
• Let bargain hunters clean it up.

And remember, The Family plan only really costs $59.5 billion because $25.5 billion is returned instantly in taxes to Uncle Sam.

I feel so much better now - after getting all that off my chest !!

You might consider taking your feelings about <what's fair> to Tribe.

 

Alternatively, you might consider running for political office - or even becoming a governor of the FED.

 

 

 

 

Pi-Pie

 

You have to measure your slice,

of course, in radians.

 

 

In the final stages

concern turns toward

how to cut up the pie

and away from

making more pies.

 

 

Clip: http://www.seriouseats.com/

required_eating/images/potd_pi-pie.jpg

Friday, September 26, 2008

 

Paddleball

 

Ed,

 

Ed Says:

 

1. Consider more dimensions of the relationship - such as: degree of compatibility of interests, alignment on common livelihood, similarity of language and thought patterns and commitment to mutual growth.

2. Respond to closeness by supporting closeness; respond to distance by supporting distance.

3. Allow a relationship to be exactly the way it is - not trying to change it, or the other person or myself.

4. Implement pro-active relationship management strategies: monitor feelings and report experience in the now as things go along - in a constructive manner.


With regard to supporting closeness and distance, in my experience in the past, I would usually focus on supporting the other partner's "closeness" or "distance". I found this was to some extent part of a codependent pattern in which I did not acknowledge my own feelings of closeness or distance, or how I felt about the relationship.

Over the time I came to realize that, as a matter of fact, I can only be responsible for my feelings and guide myself by them, and let the other be responsible for theirs.

So statement no. 2 above is not quite clear for me: who wants to be close and who wants to be distant? Perhaps you are the one playing the paddleball, or you might be the ball yourself.

So I encourage you to acknowledge your own feelings about <distance> and <closeness> and take your feelings about swinging in between them to Tribe (if you have not already done so).

The essence of the shift is to move from wanting a <level of closeness> to appreciating the <level of closeness> that currently exists.

Thursday, September 25, 2008

 

Work is Love made Visible

 

Ed,

 

I should preface this correspondence first by saying thank you. When I read your book and visited the TT site, I felt almost as if you were talking about, or to me.

I'm not sure I can accurately verbalize what my first Tribe meeting was like ... but I do know how it made me feel ... Electrified! - Thanks, in large part, to the fantastic group of people that make up the [City] Tribe.

Participating with the Tribe as a receiver for the very first time, I was fortunate enough to witness a sender deliver as intense of a session as I could have imagined ... make that more intense than I had imagined.

You could actually see, that the person who took the seat and the person who left it, were two very different people. Everything about him changed. Posture, expressions - even mannerisms. From a man who looked like someone just ran over his dog, to the guy with the winning power ball ticket in his hip pocket ... all in about 45 minutes.

Granted, I have no frame of reference outside of your book (TT), and your website ... but based on what I've read, I think even a seasoned TTP veteran would agree that this hot seat was HOT!, HOT!, HOT!

Something I hadn't expected to feel: as good as sending felt in the end for the person in the hot seat ...  felt a profound sense of calm, levity and satisfaction along with him by just being there, beating my funky new drum and joining my fellow Tribe members in creating a field of acknowledgment conducive for feeling (healing). It was, and is, a rather unexpected but incredibly enjoyable side-effect of TTP.

I feel compelled ... to tell you what a wonderful thing I believe you've created, excited ... to become as solid an asset to my Tribe as they are to one another, and eager ... to unearth Right Livelihood (a.k.a. "Work is Love made Visible").

I've just taken the first step, and am already enjoying the journey. Thank you Ed, for sharing your everything.

Thank you for sharing your process and for your encouragement.

Wednesday, September 24, 2008

 

Wants Help With Math

 

Ed,

 

I want to follow along with your EMA crossover exercise, but for some reason, I get other EMA values from the SECOND day on.

 

Thus, crossover dates deviate which in turn results differing buy and sell dates/prices.

 

Please enlighten me as to where the flaw in my thinking lies (though I got the same EMA results in your example calculation!?):

 

On 82-04-22, I get 150 EMA:

117,450 + (117,9-117,45)/150 = 117,453

instead of 117,456

15 EMA: 117,450 + (117,9-117,450)/15 = 117,48 instead of 117,506

 

All following values will deviate as well. Thanks

You might consider taking your feelings about <math> to Tribe.

Wednesday, September 24, 2008

Ron Paul on the Economy

 

Ed,

 

This might interest you.

 

"Dear Friends,

Whenever a Great Bipartisan Consensus is announced, and a compliant media assures everyone that the wondrous actions of our wise leaders are being taken for our own good, you can know with absolute certainty that disaster is about to strike.

The events of the past week are no exception.

The bailout package that is about to be rammed down Congress' throat is not just economically foolish. It is downright sinister. It makes a mockery of our Constitution, which our leaders should never again bother pretending is still in effect. It promises the American people a never-ending nightmare of ever-greater debt liabilities they will have to shoulder. Two weeks ago, financial analyst Jim Rogers said the bailout of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac made America more communist than China! "This is welfare for the rich," he said. "This is socialism for the rich. It's bailing out the financiers, the banks, the Wall Streeters."

That describes the current bailout package to a T. And we're being told it's unavoidable.

The claim that the market caused all this is so staggeringly foolish that only politicians and the media could pretend to believe it. But that has become the conventional wisdom, with the desired result that those responsible for the credit bubble and its predictable consequences - predictable, that is, to those who understand sound, Austrian economics - are being let off the hook. The Federal Reserve System is actually positioning itself as the savior, rather than the culprit, in this mess!

• The Treasury Secretary is authorized to purchase up to $700 billion in mortgage-related assets at any one time. That means $700 billion is only the very beginning of what will hit us.

• Financial institutions are "designated as financial agents of the Government." This is the New Deal to end all New Deals.

• Then there's this: "Decisions by the Secretary pursuant to the authority of this Act are non-reviewable and committed to agency discretion, and may not be reviewed by any court of law or any administrative agency." Translation: the Secretary can buy up whatever junk debt he wants to, burden the American people with it, and be subject to no one in the process.

There goes your country.

Even some so-called free-market economists are calling all this "sadly necessary." Sad, yes. Necessary? Don't make me laugh.

Our one-party system is complicit in yet another crime against the American people. The two major party candidates for president themselves initially indicated their strong support for bailouts of this kind - another example of the big choice we're supposedly presented with this November: yes or yes. Now, with a backlash brewing, they're not quite sure what their views are. A sad display, really.

Although the present bailout package is almost certainly not the end of the political atrocities we'll witness in connection with the crisis, time is short. Congress may vote as soon as tomorrow. With a Rasmussen poll finding support for the bailout at an anemic seven percent, some members of Congress are afraid to vote for it. Call them! Let them hear from you! Tell them you will never vote for anyone who supports this atrocity.

The issue boils down to this: do we care about freedom? Do we care about responsibility and accountability? Do we care that our government and media have been bought and paid for? Do we care that average Americans are about to be looted in order to subsidize the fattest of cats on Wall Street and in government? Do we care?

When the chips are down, will we stand up and fight, even if it means standing up against every stripe of fashionable opinion in politics and the media?

Times like these have a way of telling us what kind of a people we are, and what kind of country we shall be."

Of special interest is that Ron's message registers with about 3% of voters.

 

The other 97% seem to be content with taking their feds.

Wednesday, September 24, 2008

 

Font Size

 

"Everyone gets what they want." - Ed

You now use an extremely small font size on FAQ's right side, where answers appear.

This might indicate you want readers to squint.

You might want them to cut-and-paste lengthily FAQ answers into word processors, to increase font to readable size.

A good example is the detailed FAQ answer listed at [Monday, August 25, 2008].

Please consider increasing the font size to at least the font size used on the left side column of FAQ

Thank you for the report. 

 

I do not see the tiny-print effect on my browser.  I wonder if you can investigate this further to determine the line of html code that excites that mode.

Wednesday, September 24, 2008

 

Negative Interest Rates


Here's a problem: yields on 30 day or less t-bills are negative. They are selling for over par. That's a first.

In a gold-standard economy, prices fall as technology lowers the cost of production.  Interest rates are, naturally, negative - you pay your banker to hold your gold.

Tuesday, September 23, 2008

 

Wants Stock Picker

 

Dear Sirs,


I have come across your site while I was surfing in the net.


I am trading in FOREX markets and gold and silver. I wonder if you [provide] a service like daily commentary or technical analysis, and if you have how can we subscribe to your service?

 

If you don't have a daily commentary or technical analysis, can you describe what kind of service you are giving?


Hope to hear from you soon.

You might consider taking your feelings about <wanting a sure thing> to Tribe.

Tuesday, September 23, 2008


Global Warming ?


Ed,


It amazes me that the world climate and temperature change is in a clear trend. All the stat's point to this and most importantly most people can relate to the clear change over the past 30 years or so.

 

As a child in the UK I remember colder winters. The river in front of my mums house would freeze so thick we would play football on it. This hasn't happened for over 15 years now. And yet, despite all the evidence there are still many people who cannot, or will not, see this trend.

 

It reminds me of people holding onto a once great trending stock as it clearly breaks down but they go in search of good news and reasons to hold. They only listen to people who tell them what they want to hear. Only when it is too late do they look back and say "yes ... I should have seen the trend change here." Where will this climate change trend end for the earth? Politicians say they are going to do something but when all is said and done much more is said than actually done. I guess the problem is still out in the future (how far though?) and human nature is to only concern ourselves with the now. Thank you

Long-term history indicates that as environmental conditions change, life adapts to it.

 

The popular movement to "fix" the weather likely has less to do with the practicality of the operation than with the opportunism of appropriating funds to support research.

 

 

 

Bureaucrats are No Match

 

for Mother Nature.

 

 

Taxpayers are no match

 

for bureaucrats.

 

 

 

Clip: http://www.effectofglobalwarming.com/

September 22, 2008


Madness of Crowds

 

Ed,

 

What's up with the American economy? Investors, traders and government seem confused and not sure which way to go, what to do or what to expect. What's your view?

Same 'ol same 'ol.

Monday, September 22, 2008

 

Looking for a Tribe

 

Hello Mr. Seykota,


I looked you up today because I was intrigued to see what you are up to and to possibly find some writings or reports on your perspective on the wild market dynamics we are in the throes of.

 

I remember you after all these years from reading Market Wizards. Your approach and thought process made a strong impression on me and I have thought about you occasionally over the years. My interest in understanding market dynamics has grown markedly in recent years and I have gained some insight.

 

Upon finding your Trading Tribe website, I am delighted to see the correlation between my own seemingly un-trading related pursuits of meaningfulness and your approach to trading and to life in general.

 

Soon, I will buy your book and am eagerly anticipating it. I notice that it seems there are no Tribes in the [City] area is this still the case?

You can consult the Tribe Directory and / or start your own Tribe.

September 22, 2008
 

Hurricane Thought

 

Ed,

 

By dropping its weak branches, the tree increases its chances of surviving the storm.

Thank you for the thought.

 

 

 

In The Autumn

 

the government gets busy

about the important work

of gluing the leaves

back on the trees

in time for winter.

 

 

Clip: http://wallpapers.pixxp.com/

42__Autumn_tree.htm

September 22, 2008

 

TT Book Insights


I hope you are well and I am happy to see you are working on your issues with the support of your tribe and friends.

I have just finished reading your book for the 4th time and I am somewhat amazed at the new insights I have had during this reading. I felt as if it was the first time I read some of the parts. I mention this to my wife and she brings up the analogy of watching a movie a second time and the things you notice the 2nd time round. I do not feel it that way though, feel I am more receptive to some of the TTP concepts and somewhat opening up to my emotions.

This is also due to the fact that we have recently had a bereavement in the family due to cancer which has hammered home the consequences of not being true to yourself, suppressing feelings and emotions to the extent which cause serious disease.

 

Behavior I am prone to which is also deeply embedded in my mothers family. An aunt, uncle and my grandfather pass away from cancer and a 2nd aunt is cured after a difficult fight for survival, all from my mother’s side of the family. They all exhibit similar behavioral patterns: no emotions, no anger, keep a pleasant demeanor and are low/no conflict persons.

This makes me even more determined to resolve my issues which I am increasingly aware of. A couple of nights ago I dream of an encounter with an ex-girlfriend who starts to tell me how much she misses the good times we had together and after the sweet small talk is over she starts to tell me about her personal issues and difficulties.

 

Normally I am the nice guy who offers to help but in this case I clearly see myself telling her that I am no longer interested in being enrolled in her issues and that I am happily married now. I cut the encounter short and leave. I think about this quite a bit over the past few days. Is Fred registering new ways to act in such circumstances? I wonder.

Thank you for offering the continuous opportunity to grow and develop through TTP and FAQ. How can we, your friends from afar support and help you?

Thank you for sharing your process and for your encouragement.

 

You support me best by being your best self.

 

 

 

Good Books, Like  Parents,

 

seem to make more sense

as we grow into them.

 

 

Clip: http://www.dealoz.com/

Sunday, September 21, 2008


Probability


Hi Ed,

Ed says, "The Gambler's Fallacy confuses case probability with class probability." (FAQ, Uncertainty, 4/15/08)

What is case probability and class probability?

Thanks.

On average, in a class of 1000 tosses of a coin, you get about 500 heads - predicting the approximate number of heads is fairly easy.

 

On one case of a coin toss, you might get a head or tail and predicting the outcome is more difficult.

 

 

 

If You Have the Right Kind of Coin

 

you might not care

which side

you wind up viewing.

 

 

Clip: http://koinpro.tripod.com/

BarsMedalsRounds/AdultPages.htm

Sunday, September 21, 2008

 

Diversification &, Pyramiding


Dear Mr. Ed Seykota,

I completed the Diversification study using historical data from CRB and I have attached the results in the e-mail. Also, I have included the results of the EA and SR studies where my results match exactly the data on your website.

For the Diversification study I generated Panama style continuous contracts using the first true method. The equity graphs I produced are similar to the equity graphs found on your website; however, they do not match exactly. The origin of the mismatch is most likely due to the method used to generate the data and the range of contract deliveries used - perhaps you used the last true method to generate the copper and crude oil continuous contracts. Sometimes the trading days of different instruments within a time period do not match. In this study I deleted the ‘extra’ trading days and their corresponding data.

Currently I am looking at position sizing and pyramiding in the EA system. When the equity in the portfolio increases during an up-trend, the position size is updated every five trading days to bring the portfolio heat to 0.1. Currently the system adjusts the position with 0 skid and 0 commission. I am working to improve further the pyramiding method.

Ralph Vince mentions in his book ‘The Handbook of Portfolio Mathematics’ that the method of pyramiding according to a schedule is virtually unseen, but it is achieved in each market using different trading systems that give entry signals at different price levels. Do you have the same view?

I have developed a love for the markets and I am determined to succeed in this field. I do not have experience, but I do have the skills to develop mechanical trading systems, patience, and I will work hard to learn and improve my knowledge. Could I possibly work for you for free? Thank you for your time and consideration, I remain at your disposal for anything further.

Thank you for your offer.

 

I think we may be able to collaborate on some studies.

Sunday, September 21, 2008

 

Requirement

I'm sure you are disgusted by the bailout. I know I am. It is fairly obvious 700B is not enough; I read in some places that estimates as high as 20 trillion are required.

You might consider taking your feelings about <requiring a fix> to Tribe.

 

 

 

I'm Here From The Fed

 

with your fix.

 

 

Clip: http://pawatercooler.com/wp-content/

uploads/2008/01/360742nurse-holding-

hypodermic-needle-posters.jpg

Saturday, September 20, 2008

 

Choosing Action over Medication


Now, after several TTP sessions, I understand your answer from Friday, August 15, 2008 (Wants to Support).

 

Right now, I experience sadness, frustration, anger and disappointment. I don't want someone to comfort me; I want to investigate these feelings, I want my Tribe to help me explore them and to discover their positive intention. I want to reconcile myself with these feelings and to integrate them into my resources.

Thank you for sharing your process.

 

If the majority of people would act as you are acting, they would refuse Big Drug (government aid / subsidies) and wind up actually supporting each other.

 

 

 

Addict

 

 

 

Dealer

 

Clips:

http://partmule.com/blog16/wp-content/

uploads/2007/07/heroin-addict.jpg

 

http://www.crossingwallstreet.com/archives/

2005/08/

Saturday, September 20, 2008

 

Second Tribe


Intention = Results.

 

I start a further Tribe in [City]. This
tribe meets on different days and with other members.

Cordially,

Congratulations on having twins ! 

 

I recall starting a few Tribes myself.

Saturday, September 20, 2008

 

Guaranteed to Happen

 

Ed,

 

When the financial world is looking like it's ending, it will turn around on a Thursday.

 

Three of the eight ranges above 70 since 1996 came on a Thursday.

 

Monday is too early to act. Tuesday's door openers are met with skepticism. Wednesday is relentless. And Thursday, the ratchet is taken out to expand power and buoy up the wealth.

 

The fixed income market will be much wiser than the stock market and will predict what is going to happen, as will Japan overnight.

 

Oil will take the opportunity to rise from below 100 to above 100 while none are looking so that the wealth can stay in the more fecund corners of the earth.

 

VIX is even more omniscient than silver or the scholars, as it increases on up days right before the crash. Then it will move above a 10 figure to get out all the remaining nakeds who were not already priced out of their positions with self-serving marks and then fall a fast 10 on its way to below 20 again.

 

The most prescient thing about the crisis was said by Russ Sears [that the regulations requiring a market price and not a model price was the key ingredient in the crisis.]

 

Whenever you've got an inactive market, the danger of fictitious low bids and high offers can do you in.

 

Perhaps even more prescient was the Collab who said it was all the former romantic NY governor's fault for taking the cool hand Herb out of picture.

 

The vigilantes elicited the response in everyone's interest for the time being, shoring up the former white-shoes and enabling massive increases in commands and regulations to be acceptable to everyone.

You might consider taking your feelings about <wanting to be right> and <wanting to predict the future> to Tribe.

 

I wonder who is standing behind your guarantee.

 

As far as I can see, the desire to create guarantees and predict the future are central cultural factors precipitating the current situation.

 

 

 

Prediction Can Be Tricky

 

Red Circle Sep 19, 2008 shows

nearest date of contributor's post

.

Blue Circle, October 10, 2008 (Friday)

shows the low (so far).

 

Saturday, September 20, 2008

 

Ed's Return

 

Hi ...

 

When will Ed return?

Upon ongoing inspection and analysis, I conclude Ed is still here, in this moment of now and in this place.

 

I can keep checking up on this situation as this moment evolves.

Saturday, September 20, 2008

 

Rights

Hi Ed,

Ed says: "There are no 'fundamental rights.' There are only rights that one entity voluntarily awards another entity." (9/30/07 FAQ, Health Care and Fundamental Rights)

Do you agree when they (the founding Fathers) say we are all endowed by our Creator with certain unalienable Rights, that among these are Life, Liberty and the pursuit of Happiness?

Thanks.

I see some subtle differences between The Almighty and the DMV in the matter of awarding rights.

 

 

 

March 4, 1781

 

Congress gives citizens

ten key rights

 

without exactly explaining

how Congress gets to own these rights

in the first place.

 

 

Clip: http://kancrn.kckps.k12.ks.us/wyandotte/

library/Bill%20of%20Rights%20Redux%202/

Assets/Images/bill-of-rights-01.gif 

Saturday, September 20, 2008

 

Entropy

Hi Ed,

Ed says, "Living organisms decrease entropy (randomness) internally by increasing it externally." (FAQ 4/9/2003, Heads and Tails).

Can you give some examples and tell us more about it? Thanks.

When you eat food and / or burn gasoline , you are keeping yourself alive (low randomness) at the expense of randomizing the arrangement of molecules in the food and / or gasoline.

 

For more on this, see:

 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Entropy

Friday, September 19, 2008

 

Belt-o-Phobia


Dear Ed,

Just wanted to tell you about my experience on the hot seat recently. A new form has really taken root: I hide my face and try to disappear, which makes my timidity evident. At the most recent meeting, I begin my hot seat experience this way, also hugging an enormous pillow we have in our group, trying to hide myself from everyone.

 

Suddenly, I see my father looming over me with a belt and as he is about to beat me, I let out a bloodcurdling scream that frightens me. The screams make it seem like I am in horrible pain.

I relive an experience from my childhood perhaps, one that I cannot very vividly recall. I do not know if the vision of my father is merely imagined or a composite of experience. I will continue my work and am very grateful to have the support of [my] Tribe.

Whether or not your father actually hits you is immaterial, as are all things in the non-existing past.

 

Memories of traumatic events tend to vary widely and may bear little correspondence to the events themselves.

 

You can, however, work in the moment of now to experience your forms and to link them to pro-active rather than to medicinal responses.

 

 

 

Your Reaction to a Belt

 

might have a lot to do

with what you think of

when you think of a Belt.

 

 

Clip: http://www.shadyminx.com/resources/RJ06.jpg

September 19, 2008 8:03 AM

 

Lehman is the Biggest So Far

 

Ed,

 

This, from www.chartoftheday.com , might interest you.

 

 

 

So how cool is that !

 

In exponential growth processes, each reading can make all previous readings seem small by comparison.

 

 

Wednesday, September 17, 2008

Seykota Way on Google Maps


Hi Ed,

The Google map car has visited Seykota Way in Olivehurst, CA.

 



The End of The Seykota Way

 

So how cool is that !

 

Hmmm ... I wonder if this location is the epicenter of the recent California real estate vibration.