Answers

Thanks,

I do not know how to analyze your "flaw" without seeing your subsequent values.

Lag = $10 + ($20 - $10) / 5

= $10 + $10 / 5
= $20 / 5
= $4

Will you please point me toward understanding?

Many thanks,

In reducing equations, first reduce the terms inside brackets.

We begin to argue and she ignores me the whole night. A few days later we have a talk about our relationship. She tells me she doesn’t know what she wants - in every aspect in her life. Our relationship, what subject she wants to attend in university and so on.

As she tells me all those things I really don’t know what I want too. Her “I don’t know what I want” begins to start feelings in me that let my trust in our relationship fade slowly away. Some times I feel really sad, sometimes I’m angry. I am really confused too. But I don’t want to give up!

Dear Ed

I hope your trip to England went well.

I want to look at probability in the market so picked an index (FTSE 100) and three ‘random’ stocks (the first three that came to mind) BARC, RIO,VOD and gathered OHLC data for them from April 1981 for the index and Jan 2003 for the stocks.

I measure the probability of an up, down or no change day, and compute the average probability over those four instruments.

When I looked further and measured the magnitude of the up and down days in absolute terms and as a % of the previous day the numbers were very closely together. I.e. most of the time the average up day was very closely the same as the average down day.

I then looked at a few other factors, for example on the ‘X’ day high what was the probability of the next day being an up day. I tried 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 10, 20, 50, 100, 120 day highs to see if the next day is a any more likely to be an up day or a down day. To my untrained eye nothing seemed more likely than a coin toss.

When I added any exponential lag longer than 100 period it increased the probability of an up day to around 53% versus 47% for a fall. The average magnitude moved a long way on the FTSE of an average gain on 12 points 53% of the time versus an average fall of 22 points 47% of the time.

When I extended this idea to stocks it didn’t seem to show any clear move in favor of an up day when a stock was above its 100 exp lag.

To conclude this disjointed thinking.

I feel predicting the market direction on any given day based on the few crude factors I’ve looked at seems not a lot more certain than starting the day trading session with a coin toss. ‘Heads I buy, Tails I sell’.

I also wonder if not having formal math training, I am overlooking the importance of a 52% chance as being a lot better than a 50% chance if implemented over long periods of time, maybe this is an ‘edge’.

My returning thought is that because of the way the FTSE 100 is evolved by culling weak constituents and adding strong ones each ¼ does it represent a slightly skewed and beneficial trading opportunity, using what I ‘know’ through math to take the other side of trades that people are putting on as hedges or for reasons other than they think that market is likely to fall.

If the market is random, zero sum and a 50/50 bet, how do some people make millions or billions consistently over time?

Is the only way to make money out of the markets to be lucky or to sell the dream of being lucky to other people?

God I’m confused and frustrated.

Also, maybe you could use some nice music.

apparel/drug-dealer-tank

I've been re-reading the FAQ and saw the "Trading Tribe Growth Engine" mentioned. How can I access it?

The Growth Engine is part of a suite of software I use to help clients develop and implement trading systems.

Equity and Margin
Trend Definition
Testing Platforms
Bliss Functions
Optimizing a Trend System
Dynamic Portfolio Selection
Dynamic Risk Modification
Pattern Recognition
Presenting the Results
Forming a Fund
Compliance
Marketing
Operations


... topics that are no longer available? Topics that may be? Topics that probably won't be?
 

These items are section titles for which no content currently appears.

Hi Ed,

Do you still conduct the Snapshot Process at the IV Tribe as you describe in the 1/29/06 FAQ "My Old Snapshot and Developing a New Snapshot"? Any modifications or other evolution to the Snapshot Process? In these two plus years, what are the results you observe?

Also, I am not quite sure about the "Circle of Champions." You say "each member takes your snapshot and also presents it as if it were his own. In this way, each member gets to hear the other members champion his snapshot." My understanding is that snapshot is something quite personal for each person, and that my snapshot could mean the world to me while it may not mean much to you. So when other member presents my own snapshot, he is unlikely to match my intensity level, or maybe even no emotional intensity. I don't quite understand the idea of circle of champions.

In addition, when someone presents another person's snapshot, is he to mirror the tone of voice and body language of the original snapshot owner? Or is he to present it according to his own interpretation? If it is the latter case, since that is "present it as if it were his own", does it mean that we encourage the presenter to add his own bias and judgment (good or bad) to other people's snapshot?

Thanks.

Image:%22The_right_way%22.jpg

They rings a bell in me.


Our Tribe keeps growing in size and deepness. We progress fast and discover a lot about us. I have a hot seat the day before my birthday. The issue is “A month ago I do not follow a sell signal of my system”. The result: my relationship to my wife and my children improves substantially. TTP is a gift. Thank you very much.

Cordially,

Thank you for sharing your process.

After this intense drama situation with and without the Tribe I can say: the Tribe is an essential tool for right livelihood.

Visiting other tribes [City] teaches different techniques and is fun.

Thank you again,

Clip: http://stuorgs.uidaho.edu/~flame/Power.html

Dear Ed,

I been trading for 10 years and just blew up my account. A relative suggested you might be able to counsel me regarding my inability to create and adhere to a coherent trading plan. I heard that you offer private consultations in Lake Tahoe and that you are a very insightful man. Would it be possible for me to have a meeting with you ? Thanks for your time.

Clip: http://www.pixaloons.com/pop_balloons.html

Hello Ed,

Forget about the system I emailed to you last week. I went over it after not looking at it for a couple of days and it turns out that it had a subtle bug. It used future data to place trades in the present. Maybe when scientists invent magic I'll try it out with real money. Until then I'll try out some of the other ideas I have. And here is one of them I have for the FOREX markets:

Monday (assuming the market opens at midnight) go long if the market goes up X pips, or go short if the market goes down X pips. X is the same for both trades. When a trade is entered, place a stop Y pips away. If a stop isn't hit, exit the trade when the market closes on Friday at 4PM(Eastern). If a stop is hit, you're done until Monday. The next Monday you do everything again.

I'm having trouble testing this because on a daily bar both entries might be hit and you can't tell which one was first. Only the first one is taken.

2008/05/08/you-talking-to-me/

Warm Regards,

You might take your feelings about <relying on second hand information> and <inconsistency> to Tribe.

Thank you for the outstanding technology, your support and advice to all the Tribes and all the work you are doing.

When I think about our last Thursday Tribe meeting, I feel elated, warmer and full of insights.

I feel a sense of joy, support and commitment spread among the participants which I am still embracing.

I notice the difference between figure out and feel in.

Finally, I feel having the checkout process after each hot-seat very helpful for all Tribe members.

It helps connecting stronger and deeper with the “hot-seat” person and his feelings.

Thanks you for the present of being present in the present.

The day after the meeting, I had one of my best day in trading.

Thank you for sharing your process.

Perhaps, this is better attempted after a workshop, in which case anybody interested might consider attending one, knowing there are others to meet and 'receive' after the event.

I am finding it very hard to write in SVO-p. Are any corrections required to the above text? ;)

Thanks,

People/pages/royalty_jpg.htm

I think of you from time to time. You have not updated the FAQ pages for awhile and I find myself hoping you are doing well and that you have peace with your issue you were dealing with.

Thank you for your support.

Sincerely,

article/15055.html

Learning to live my feelings instead of living to not feel

I sit with my father-in-law as he holds the hand of his brother as his brother's life vacates his body. I visit my father-in-law daily and today I cry. I am sad that he may soon follow his brother. I talk to my wife and her brother. I fell sad and I feel alive.

Thanks,

Thank you for sharing your process.

Dear Chief Ed,

Thank you for updating these charts on a daily basis.

For several months / years I have been viewing these books - and have observed that just watching the trends here - is an education greater than all the information that one can take in from all the several high brow, in-depth business reporting magazines, newspapers etc..

I have always maintained your website is the best resource available to all traders; and others too who are brave enough to journey within themselves ...

I wish you well - always

Thank you for your support.