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Oct 1 - 14, 2008
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Note: The intention of inclusion of charts in FAQ is
to illustrate trading principles - The appearance of a chart does not imply
any kind of indication or recommendation to buy, sell, hold or stay out
of any
positions. |
|
Questions
(Quotes from Ed in Red)
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Answers |
|
Tuesday,
October 14, 2008
Programming
with Functional Language
Here you go
Chief.
Microsoft is
about to release F#, a functional language.
Moore's law is not delivering faster
processors
anymore - It is delivering "Moore" of them. |
Thanks for the info bytes. |
|
Tuesday,
October 14, 2008
Wants to
Advertize on FAQ
I really love all the great material that you have on
your site. It seems like we have the same ideas on what we want to
accomplish with our sites. I would love to speak with you about possibly
working together to help us both be more successful and make you more
money, with out lifting a finger.
If you are interested in speaking please give me a
call so that we can get this show on the road. Do you work with any
strategic partnerships? If you have a chance you could send me over your
ad rates as well as some traffic statistics. |
Thank you for your offer.
I do not accept advertizing or swap
URLs. |
|
Tuesday,
October 14, 2008
Financial Crisis hits Japan - Comedy
Ed,
Here is some
comic relief in this middle of this strange play.
Financial Crisis hits Japan !
Following the problems in the
sub-prime lending market in America, Northern Rock, Bradford
& Bingley etc in the UK, uncertainty has now hit Japan.
In the last 7 days Origami Bank has folded.
Sumo Bank has gone belly up.
Bonsai Bank announced plans to cut some of
its branches.
Karaoke Bank is likely to go for a song.
Kamikaze Bank nose-dived.
Samurai Bank is soldiering on following sharp
cuts,
Ninja Bank has taken a hit, but remains in the black.
500 staff at Karate Bank got the chop.
Analysts smell something fishy going on at
Sushi Bank where the staff fears getting a raw deal. |
OK. So I
suppose the Judo Bank is selling off Ki assets.

Loan Officer at Judo Bank
negotiating a floor price.
Clip:
http://www.daylife.com/photo/
03GT1x347H6O9
|
|
Tuesday,
October 14, 2008
The Competition is Not That Tough
Ed,
The competition just got a lot less tough. We will soon be competing
with large financial institutions whose largest shareholder is the US
government and all the bureaucracy that will bring to them.
In the short term they will be nimble because the have some short term
empowerment, but it will soon deteriorate into the stalemate the exists
in all governments.
Can you imagine what those board meetings are going to start looking
like! |
OK. |
|
Monday,
October 13, 2008
Wants to Help His Brother
Mr. Seykota,
My brother has a managed futures business and has been trading
commodities for several years. Over the past 8 years he has been
developing a trading system that I believe has potential.
Now, he is
looking to sharpen his strategy and I thought that you may possibly be
able to help him. Please take a look at his CV, and if you are
interested I will have him send over his models. Thank you!
Warm Wishes, |
I wonder what kind of relationship
you have with your brother. |
|
Monday,
October 13, 2008
Economic Brain
Therapy
Ed,
I thought
you'd find this of interest.
It's an
article about using economics theory to study the flow of information in
the brain.
http://www.physorg.com/news142791894.html
|
That seems to be an interesting
twist on using your brain to study economics. |
|
Monday,
October 13, 2008
Wants
personal Attention
Hi Ed,
I got your email from the site- http://www.seykota.com/tribe/
I am a Trader and would want to know more about Trading Tribe and its
benefits.
Please help me out in this.
Regards, |
If you wish personal attention, you
might consider reviewing my terms for private consulting, at the bottom
of the Ground Rules link, above. |
|
Sunday,
October 12, 2008
1929 crash versus 2008 crash
Hello Ed,
I hope you have been doing well in
this terrific market decline.
I've been busy shorting, and doing
extremely well, particularly this past week. You and your readers may
find these video clips interesting, and observe the plethora of
similarities between the 1929 crash and this 2008 crash.
Most amusing is
video 5 where Jesse Livermore returns home to find his wife emptied out
the house because she thought he was wiped out, and would need to sell
the house to raise money!
http://www.precisiontradingsystems.com/1929%20crash.htm
It seems that the bulls who said " The markets are different this time"
are truly proven to be wrong.
One thing that is making me nervous is the
bans on short selling sweeping the world, I hope they will not be stupid
enough to ban futures and options.
Kind regards. |
Thank you for sharing your process.
Congratulations on following the
trends.
One difference between 1929 and 2009
is that in 1929 the FED is only a teenager.
Economic units are still relatively
independent. More recently, the FED subsidizes enormous social programs
that are economically un-sustainable.
In 1929 the market succeeds in
clearing out the speculative enthusiasm of individual traders.
In 2009 the market may attempt to
clear out the speculative enthusiasms of the social collective.
|
|
Saturday,
October 11, 2008
Exponential Crossover
Exercise
Hi Ed,
I now found out that my probs are du to the fact
that the exponential lags in your exercise are being computed by using
(Time_Constant + 1) / 2
Originally, I
didn't want to read the readers
feedback before having come up with a solution myself. Thus, it took me
a while to find out this "workaround".
Why didn't you use instead TC=50
or TC=150?
Since we are coding from scratch, why do we use an
"imprecise" alteration of the original ExPLag formula that is only valid
in case of ramp-equivalent MA as you state?
Should be as easy for a
computer do use TC (which is precise) instead of (TC+1)/2, which is
imprecise - right?! Or is there a special reason for that?
Peace |
TC and (TC+1)/2 are both precise.
I prefer using TC.
Industry standard, per
consumer-grade software, seems to be to use (TC+1)/2. |
|
Saturday, October 11, 2008
Urgent
Message
Dear Ed,
Please Chief this is an urgent message:
Few months ago I entered a terrible drawdown in my trading account.
I went through three consecutive drawdowns!
The last one was even over well any historical back tested and live
drawdown seen.
I had 5 investors:
Two were on a fixed interest rate and were the big one. I called them
and told them what is happening. They panic a bit and ask me to pay back
everything and remaining interest. I of course paid back the capital
plus all interest to calm them and get rid of that terrible pressure and
being in the uncertainty of future performance.
The last three who were on a risk agreement went crazy and started to
blame me they told me that I had to stop earlier and could not accept to
have lost the previous profit and the risk capital also part of the
margin capital.
They started insulting me menacing me saying that I was
an irresponsible person and went around telling the all community that I
went crazy etc and managed my business like a donkey. I did not argue
and never answer the thousand why they were throwing to me.
For more than 15 weeks I went bananas, isolated myself and did not speak to
anybody from those days.
I sleep an average of 2 h per night waking up in the middle of the night
many times in panic from those days.
At a certain stage having lost all my friends my girlfriend and my money
I wanted to kill myself.
My prayers and reading of the FAQ and the book of Jessie Livermore kept
me a bit live (reading what happened to him few times and what he did
after).
About one week ago one of the three investors came to see me and asked
me to start again with an initial small capital and that he will be
back office to check the performance and x check the risk agreed and try
to recover all losses and even the earning we had. I accepted because I
had nothing else to do but I realized after that that I am in a terrible
mental state to trade as you can imagine especially doubting my method
now after having seen what happened before and having not slept properly
for weeks even months. I lost also 8 kilos because I can not swallow
anything.
My method includes all basic rules cut losses and run profit even
optimizing the winners and trend following money management controlling
height of position with a fixed ratio bet per position. I back-tested
manually for many hundred of trade traded in demo for over a month and
then live for a very long period. But ... I have doubt now.
I was also ashamed to contact you earlier because I probably should have
stop trading well before and verify the method and or me for sure had to
have a rule for that, that I did not have in my trading plan.
I had no back office and vague Uncle point until I reached it of course.
Even though I saw the bigger and consecutive drawdown I kept triggering
and triggering until I reached that terrible level in my account.
Chief I feel terrible and need your insight please.
Ed, you are my only contact and the only person who understand so well
psychology behind our job and I need all your experience facing such
problem that you must have seen many times around you so I turn to you
and ask for your insight and advice for this type of situation.
The investor told me also if I see that you are doing ok I will inject
more and more money during the process.
I am facing now a terrible mental
state have a method which I am scared to use even if it respect all the
basic rules and I am unable to correct and x check what went wrong with
my actual mental and physical state. May be its me and not the method I
am not sure of anything today.
Being so lost and isolated having nobody around to advise me I turned
to you as a tribe member for some insight and advise, Ed.
Sorry for writing in English Ed you know that I am French speaking and
here do not practice a lot English.
Kindest regards to you and yours. |
Thank you for sharing your process.
You might consider taking your
feelings such as shame, and your feelings about how your clients are
treating you to Tribe.
The positive intention of your
trading might have something to do with Fred wishing to experience these
things - and entraining drama to facilitate this.
You might also consider developing
resources to bring your clients' expectations in line with the
volatility your methods deliver.

The Positive Intentions of Shame
include bringing your behavior
in line with others' expectations
Clip:
http://www.ad3pt.org/images/Shame_opt.jpg |
|
Friday, October 10, 2008
Important New
Financial Terms
Ed,
I get a chuckle out of some of these. That someone
would send them to me hints that we may be near a collective aha! Hope
you are doing well.
CEO -- Chief Embezzlement Officer.
CFO -- Corporate Fraud Officer.
BULL MARKET -- A random market movement causing an investor to mistake
himself for a financial genius.
BEAR MARKET -- A 6 to 18 month period when the kids get no allowance,
the wife gets no jewelry, and the husband gets no sex.
VALUE INVESTING -- The art of buying low and selling lower.
P/E RATIO -- The percentage of investors wetting their pants as the
market keeps crashing.
BROKER -- What my broker has made me.
STANDARD & POOR -- Your life in a nutshell.
STOCK ANALYST -- Idiot who just downgraded your stock.
STOCK SPLIT -- When your ex-wife and her lawyer split your assets
equally between themselves.
FINANCIAL PLANNER -- A guy whose phone has been disconnected.
MARKET CORRECTION -- The day after you buy stocks.
CASH FLOW-- The movement your money makes as it disappears down the
toilet.
YAHOO -- What you yell after selling it to some poor sucker for $640 per
share.
WINDOWS -- What you jump out of when you're the sucker who bought Yahoo
@ $640 per share.
INSTITUTIONAL INVESTOR -- Past year investor who's now locked up in a
nuthouse.
PROFIT -- An archaic word no longer in use.
|
Thank you for your deft-initions.
How about this one:
FED; Federal Reserve System -- a
non-federal agency with no reserves that does not follow a system. |
|
Wednesday,
October 8, 2008
Trading Tribe Questions
Dar Sir:
I don't know who reads these or if you actually really speak to Ed on a
consistent basis but I just wanted to tell him "thank you" for his
incredible insight in the Market Wizards interview he gave.
I'm a 24
year old kid and I basically have no life outside of trading, I was born
to play basketball and trade and both of them consume me in a positive
way.
I even traded my Dads 401K when I was sixteen and it was going well
until the 1099 came in the mail and then the fun was over. Anyway I
didn't mean to give my life story or anything but I just wanted to
express my sincere gratitude to Ed for his words in that book.
It had a
pretty profound effect on me and I was also amazed at how well-versed he
is in human psychology. I have come to believe that trading is about
learning about yourself and not about a magical indicator or system (no
disrespect Mr. Seykota).
People approach the market like it's a winning
lottery ticket that they just discovered but the problem is they don't
love to trade. I love it and I love to figure out how to analyze "people
being people" and the money is incidental to how great the game is.
When
Mr. Seykota was asked if someone could be transformed into a winning
trader and he responded by saying “A losing trader can do little to
transform himself into a winning trader. A losing trader is not going to
want to transform himself. That’s the kind of thing winning traders do.”
I probably read that comment twenty times. I also loved the comment that
"people get what they want from the market".
Anyway I'm sure he gets
thousands of letters like these but I was wondering if I might be able
to meet him sometime and thank him. Or if that's not possible then could
you let me know if he ever plans to speak anywhere and I'll fly there
and attend it.
You probably think I am strange but I honestly got more
helpful information from that brief interview than ninety percent of all
the trading books out there I have read. Lots of traders love to
aggrandize themselves and their achievements but Mr. Seykota was
different.
He was so honest and I felt like his interview was written to
me personally. Anyway like he says in that interview "traders trade and
letter-writers write letters" so I don't expect him to be able to make
time for me when he could be doing a lot of other productive things but
I just wanted to say thanks again and hopefully I get to meet him
sometime.
Warm Regards, |
Thank you for your encouragement.
I read the mail and write the column
myself. |
|
Wednesday,
October 8, 2008
When the Man
Comes Around - Johnny Cash
Hey, Ed, I have found this
great piece of music. Forwarding it for you:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Rd9p9e9Ibz0
Best regards. |
The man seems to be in the
neighborhood. |
|
Tuesday,
October 7, 2008
Banking
Collapse
Ed,
What do you think about -
(1) Banking collapse: Lehman Collapse, Merill, Bear, AIG, WaMu,
Wachovia ... I feel "easy money" being short!
|
You might consider taking your
feelings about <easy money> to Tribe. |
|
Monday,
October 6, 2008
Fiat Empire
- excellent video about the FED
Ed,
It's
58 minutes long and I think it's worth watching.
http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=5232639329002339531
|
Thank you for the URL. |
|
Monday,
October 6, 2008
Thanks a
Lot
Hi Mr. Ed,
I hope evrithing is fine for you.
I
have spent a lot of time reading you faq.
You have made me stronger,
thanks a lot. |
You are welcome. |
|
Monday,
October 6, 2008
Stupid Americans
Ed,
You might like
to see this video.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wUfpaGzeP6k
|
Americans might have an addiction to
government.
As such they might not be
intellectually "stupid" as much as emotionally dependent.
The man in the video might not be
intellectually "smart" as much as emotionally angry. |
|
Monday,
October 6, 2008
Tribe
Meting Report
Dear Ed,
Here's a report of the first meeting of the [City] tribe.
Before the meeting, I experience uncertainty and nervousness about
conducting the meeting as I have between 8 and 15 people that express
interest to come. This motivates me to seek help, prepare and develop a
written agenda and some notes to follow. The result is the meeting
flows,
stays on track and we complete the processes on plan.
A total of 8 people, including myself come to the meeting.
To open, I welcome everyone and thank them for coming. I state my
intentions for the tribe, my role as leader and indicate that I'm new to this too.
I
mention that today you get a flavor of the tribe and TTP and you may
leave
as you wish, if you feel it's not for you.
I ask to go around the room and give a short introduction about yourself
andwhat you do.
I read to the group the following. (I also send this out to anyone that
expresses interest in the tribe):
-----
A consistent winning trading system consists of 2 parts:
1) The "Mechanical Part" - involving technical analysis, following
trends,
riding winners, cutting losses, managing risk, entries, stops and other
aspects of the mechanics of trading.
2) The "Organic Emotional Part" - involving you - the trader. Your
emotions
and feelings affect your ability to stick to your system.
"Your real trading system is the set of feelings you are unwilling to
experience." - Ed Seykota
The Trading Tribe Process (TTP) assists in improving part 2 of the
system
and facilitates personal growth.
The "Mechanical Part" isn't covered at the meetings.
-----
Next I cover TTP and basic concepts like SVO-p and Now.
I ask for the drums to be passed out, each member takes a drum and
beater
and we start drumming.
I lead through the Trading Tribe Workbook training directions in the
back of
the Trading Tribe book. I read instructions aloud from the workbook and
answer questions before each process. We work each process to
completion.
I call for a check-out after each process, and this works well. The
check-out comments reinforce that the processes are working and it's
good to
hear each person's perspective of what's happening. I notice comments
similar to participants at the workshop in Reno. Members report they are
"getting it" and see how this can benefit them and their trading and to
improve their communication and relationship skills.
One or two people comment that the drumming helps them focus in the now
on
the meeting and separate themselves from thinking about other things.
One member says that the "Sending and Receiving Forms" exercise seems
easier
than the first two (Thoughts and Feelings).
Another person comments that they think this will help them be a better
listener and sense others feelings easier in family life and other
relationships.
When the "Developing Forms in a Small Tribe" process comes, I ask if
anyone
is ready to work, and a member steps up with "yes".
I ask the person to say something about the situation that brings up the
feeling. The sender says that these feelings come up on Monday morning
when
the markets open as they start day trading. I say "OK, go for it". The
person
begins to act out the process of day trading using a couple of chairs for
props.
The actions are of boredom, and shifts to intense watching of the
screen, shifts to intense poising to click in an order while staring
intently, shifts to clicking in the order, shifts to a relief and pacing
around with worry and concern. Re-focusing on the screen, following
every
tick, intense watching, click in the closing trade, joy and excitement
and
boredom once again. The sender repeats the sequence of actions over
again.
There seem to be many emotions that arise in this sequence rather than
just
one. Just when the receivers cheer on one emotion, the sender moves on
to
another one. The sender acts out, at times frantic, sometimes sits, gets
up,
stands, paces, stomps, sits again, and so on.
The receivers begin to encourage the sender to keep doing that, do it
over
and over, keep shifting, keep experiencing new and different emotions.
After a while it seems to keep going on without much progress. The other
receivers stop encouraging and just watch. I wave my arms to signal the
receivers to "talk it up". They encourage more for a while, but die down
as
a new emotion is expressed on a different "phase" of the day trading
enactment.
I notice this and suggest to the sender to locate one feeling
and stick with it, experience that feeling deeply and fully. The sender
at
first sticks with one emotion of the cycle, but them shifts to the next
one
again. I encourage on with just what the sender does now, and say "yes,
keep going with that", "good job", "go with it". After a few more
cycles,the sender sits down and just relaxes in apparent contentment.
I take
this
as a sign that it's complete. I ask if the situation feels different now
as compared to before the process. The answer comes back, "yes, I feel
better about this. This is what I go through everyday day trading."
During check-out the sender gets a number of "good-job" comments from
the
receivers. One member comments that it seems like a real "ride"
day trading
and seeing this scene makes him sure that he doesn't want to trade like
that. :-)
We take up the drums and the final drumming concludes with a period of
silence and serenity.
We complete the meeting in 4 hours.
One member leaves about midway through due to a migraine headache.
Members seem tired and "spent" afterwards. One member comments about
that
the length of the meeting being "long" and shorter meetings are
preferred.
Other members agree. They mention they understand the necessity of the
training processes.
They bring up that they have other responsibilities,
etc. I respond that we may be able to complete meetings in less time now
training is complete, and if only a few people get chance a to "work".
We
also have a discussion about shifting the start time to 2:00p or 3:00p.
I'm
open to whatever works.
The next meeting is set for next Sunday, Oct. 12. Afterwards, the
schedule
changes to meet on the 2nd and 4th Sundays of the month.
4 other people not at the first meeting express interest in the next
meeting.
I wonder how to train newcomers, and let those already trained to
proceed
directly to "Developing Forms in a Small Tribe", "Honoring the Judge",
"Re-integrating Forms" and the "DIM Process".
I see some options:
1) Schedule a separate training meeting and invite a few trained members
to
come and help train.
2) Invite all members and run through the first 2 training processes
"Sending and Receiving Thoughts" and "Sending and Receiving Feelings",
then
jump to "Developing Forms in a Small Tribe", "Honoring the Judge",
"Re-integrating Forms" and the "DIM Process".
I am inclined to option 2.
Thank you for calling to congratulate and encourage us. The timing of
the
call worked out well.
Thank you for sharing TTP and for all your help and support.
Sincerely, |
Thank you for sharing your process.
You might consider taking your own
feelings about <wanting to manage correctly> to your next meeting.
If a headache appears at a Tribe
meeting, you might consider going with it as an entry point.

A Headache
can provide an excellent
point of entry.
Clip:
http://tell.fll.purdue.edu/JapanProj/
FLClipart/Medical/headache.gif
|
|
Monday,
October 6, 2008
Home Alone
Ed,
Without the benefit of a Tribe, I am left to practice TTP principles
alone. I have no other alternative. I’ve tried everything else, and my
spirit won’t settle for mediocrity. So home alone I create the space and
time to feel.
I return to the feeling most overwhelming. Sadness. I roll up in a
defenseless position, head beneath my hands. I crank the tightness in my
gut and with my elbows on the floor pound my fists up and down while I
experience a deep sense of sadness. I experience this feeling all the
while hearing the support of tribe members. “Good, crank your gut more,
pound your fists, grimace your face. More.” I ask my self if I am
willing to enjoy the feeling? I am, and I do.
I lie back and continue to allow myself to feel. I realize that I am
about to get sick. I go to the kitchen and get a big plastic bowl and
return to feel. I start to dry heave. I don’t particularly know why.
After 4 or 5 heaves the feeling dissipates. I ask myself if I am willing
to experience this feeling of sickness, and am I willing to enjoy it? I
demonstrate that I am by returning to the bowl with a big, strong,
tight, smile on my face as if to show that I am definitely ready to
enjoy this feeling. The feeling dissipates.
I recognize that I feel angry. I place my head into a pillow and yell. I
yell repeatedly. I recognize that I feel safer yelling so that others
can not hear me. I remember what I read in TT book. Society conditions
us to not feel. I flash back on a recent time when I told my son to stop
yelling. I feel sad, and angry. I continue to yell into the pillow. I
turn onto my back and kick my feet in the air, while continuing to yell.
I yell until I can not.
I lie on my back exhausted. I ask myself if I am willing to feel all of
these feelings again, and enjoy them. I do.
Thank you. |
Thank you for sharing your process.
You can use the DIM (Do It Myself)
process to deal with some issues.
You might miss other subtle and
important issues.
For example, you might consider
taking your feelings about <yelling in front of others>, <confrontation>
and <setting boundaries> to Tribe.

Positive Intentions of Yelling
include expressing anger
and setting boundaries.
Clip:
http://www.lawyersandsettlements.com/
articles/00462/verbal-abuse.html
|
|
Sunday,
October 5, 2008
TT Book
Hi Ed,
I just wanted to let you know I received the
Trading Tribe Book. I really enjoyed the read. I don't know why but I
think humor is going to be part of this process for me.
And I misplaced
my book for half a day after completing it.
Thank you |
Misplace = successfully hide
something from yourself that so you don't have to deal with it. |
|
Sunday,
October 5, 2008
Seeking Blocks
Attaining?
Ed says, "Seeking sometimes blocks attaining." (FAQ 5/23/08, To the
Point)
Can you please give us some example and tell us more about it?
hanks.
|
If you have a k-not relating to
developing a relationship or a trading system - you might avoid
succeeding in these areas in order to realize your real intention of
holding on to the feeling of wanting.
|
|
Sunday,
October 5, 2008
Simulate Emotional Interactions
Hi Ed,
A FAQ contributor says, "I anticipate reading your new models that
simulate emotional interactions." (FAQ 5/22/08)
Your response is, "So far, some of the runs seem fairly realistic,"
along with caption "Emotions Interacting in a Simulation Model" on a
chart.
It sounds very exciting! I wonder if you can tell us more about this
simulation model, thanks. |
I'm working on it. |
|
Sunday,
October 5, 2008
Future->Now
Hi Ed,
While the PowerPoint slide show on your 5/3/08 FAQ (Thoughts on the
Art of Living - Movie) is lovely and some wonderful quotes, two of
them stand out in particular though:
"The future belongs to those who believe in the beauty of their dreams."
"I look to the future because that's where I am going to spend the
rest of my life."
I think now, after reading your website for so long, I find that if we
substitute the word "future" with the word "now", the two quotes
sounds even more powerful to me.
Thank you wholeheartedly for sharing your wisdom in such entertaining
way through the website with us. |
Thank you for bringing the message
into the now. |
|
Sunday,
October 5, 2008
Tribe
Report - Measureable Improvement
Ed,
Our Tribe members report further measurable improvement in several
areas.
A member resolves a long-lasting family problem during a single hot
seat.
A
second member reports being in psychotherapy for over 2 years. It takes
us
20 minutes to identify her problem and some 30 minutes to resolve it.
I wish I knew what I am doing. But anyway, it looks like I am doing it
right.
The Tribe is full with 7 active members. I start a second Tribe, same
city,
different meeting schedule, different members.
May I visit the Tribe in Incline Village as pollinator?
Best regards, |
Thank you or sharing your process.
|
|
Friday,
October 3, 2008
Smoking Gun
- The Rule of '04
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/03/
business/03sec.html?partner=rssnyt&emc=rss
Ed,
Check this out. It is the smoking gun of this whole mess.
|
You might consider noticing the
greed of 04 naturally propelling the enactment of the rule. |
|
Friday,
October 3, 2008
Filing the News
Dear Chief Ed,
While jogging this morning (during the release of nonfarm payroll
statistics), I think about "filing the news."
Then I think about avoiding the news by jogging and avoiding the
feelings associated with the news.
Then, I realize I do not want to be controlled by the news and if I do
see it, I want to control it (by understanding or analyzing it).
Instead of avoiding, I intend to feel:
1) the feeling associated with the news
2) the feeling of being controlled by the news and what other people say
3) the feeling of wanting to control the news (by understanding or
analyzing it)
Whether I get to the zero point or not, I intend to RELEASE whatever is
left.
Thank you |
Thank you for sharing your process.
You might consider taking the
feelings you are avoiding to Tribe. |
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Friday,
October 3, 2008
Emotional Log
Ed,
My associates appear to be deeply fearful.
I do not recall ever seeing so much doom and gloom.
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Trend systems do not intend to pick
tops or bottoms.
They ride sides.
If you want to pick a bottom, by the
feel of it, you might consider tuning in to the despair channel -
that may be a more precise indicator than generic "gloom and doom."

Despair
accompanies

the abdication of hope.
Clips:
http://www.maskofpriam.com/despair_3.jpg
http://www.atpm.com/13.10/tim-allen/
Steps%20of%20Despair.shtml
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Thursday, October 2, 2008
Request for Interview
Mr. Seykota,
I'm writing an
article about how to trade in today's volatile market and would like to
interview you for 15 to 20 minutes over the phone, if possible. Would
you be available for an interview, I'll need to do it rather quickly.
Thanks, looking forward to hearing a response. |
You might consider examining your
own feelings about needing to do it rather quickly - as a foundation for
your understanding about volatility.
|
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Wednesday,
October 1, 2008
Directory
Hey Ed, It looks like you
put me back on the Tribe Directory so I am going to go with the flow and
try to spark up some new meetings. :)
Sincerely |
OK. |
|
Wednesday,
October 1, 2008
Coin Toss Position Sizing
Hello Chief,
1. One Coin toss every DAY gives you 1.2 times your bet-size on heads
and you lose your bet-size on tails. (akin to short term trend
following)
2. One Coin toss every YEAR gives you 2 times your bet-size on
heads and you lose your bet-size on tails. (akin to long term trend
following)
And given 250 DAYS in a YEAR. If one chooses case 1 - one's
pay-off will be much larger on compounding after (say) ten years than in
case 2.
Arranging the bet-size like you have. Is it
possible to play 2 and
be as profitable as 1?
What needs to be added to the game to make 2 as
profitable?
Warm Regards,
|
I do not see how (1) is like
short-term trading or how (2) is like long-term trading.
Double or nothing at the end of the
year seems a bit volatile, even in these markets. |
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Wednesday,
October 1, 2008
Contrary
Indicator
Ed,
This seems like a bottom to me.

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Thank you for sending the magazine
cover.
I still do not see much evidence of
emotion on magazine covers, such as faces and postures full of despair.

The Red Circle
indicates the date of emailing
by the contributor
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