Note: The intention of inclusion of charts in FAQ is to illustrate trading principles - The appearance of a chart does not imply any kind of indication or recommendation to buy, sell, hold or stay out of any positions.

Answers

Yes, occasionally a major mover comes along.  The trick is to "ride that trend right to the end."

Hi, I have emailed [Name] in [City] to see about a visit to their tribe but have had no response. Are they still meeting?

I do not monitor or supervise any Tribes other than through FAQ correspondence.

Dear Mr. Seykota,

I am interested on the progress of your diet and exercise program. A fundamental analyst calculates: You loss 25 pound between December and March and in April you expect a further weight loss. Hence, you can lose further 25 pounds until July. But I doubt if fundamental analysis works ...

Two Tribe members have discussed their exercise and diet programs with me. I am glad about their approach (common sense, informed decision, evidence based). I can make very few suggestions, since their programs are working well. I am open to any question which appear during the process.

Kind regards,

My weight takes out the low at 200 pounds, down from 235.  I consult my physician, reduce carbohydrates and take on a physical trainer.  I do regular workouts plus cardio.  I stay in mild ketosis. I experience attention-grabbing gout in my right big toe and in my right knee.  I treat initially with colchicine, currently with H20.  I am currently proceeding, more slowly, and with a much higher daily intake of H20.

Dear Chief Ed,

Hope you and the family are well.

It's been a while since I have written, but I can assure you that you and your teachings are almost always on my mind.

I regularly review the charts you post on the site - and often find certain groups not updating. (nearly all the chart sub groups are not updated - 27 June '08 )

Also in the currencies section - the chart being picked is the Eurodollar bond, not the Euro currency.

Just a few observations to help keep the site - the complete resource that it is...

Sincerely,

Thanks again for your contributions.

Walking-on-Egg-Shells-1997-Posters_i314879_.htm

Ed,

I have a terminology question about trading.

Say I shoot for 25% return on a rolling 12-month basis.

A rule of thumb is that I can expect to experience a drawdown of that magnitude (25%) every 12 months or so.

What is the term for this? I was thinking is is "MAR" but I don't think that is actually it. Is this it? If so what do the letters stand for? MAR is managed account report right?

What is the name of this 'symmetrical expected drawdown' ? Is there a term for this?

Also, I think that if my [actual return]/[largest drawdown] for the measuring period is greater than 1, I am performing better than most, who have to expect a 1-or-lower. Do you agree?

Is there a name for this ratio?

TheExpectation.jpg

They ask for help or research the problem, get new information and move on. Now, I really like not knowing everything. This is the way I keep learning. Thanks for the thought realignment. I feel great about knowing and not knowing!

Workshop

I want to come to the July TT Workshop. Will both you and Charles Faulkner definitely be there? Approx how many attend?

I'm feeling a bit guilty of the monetary expenditure unless there is a good chance true change will come about. Any suggestions to get me over the fence?

Sorry to bother you with this ...


Sincerely,

All the best.

OK.

I understand the sharpe ratio, sterling ratio  and MAR. I still don't know exactly what 'bliss' is as you use it, except that it maybe has something to do with these popular (easy) ratios. Sometimes you use pretend/make believe words in the financial markets; and when asked to define them, you don't.

I wonder why you don't answer the question, especially when you use the term in your answers on FAQ. Maybe it's a drama about keeping your readers in the dark. When you're asked about the rocks process or Fred, you answer in detail. When asked about EMA studies, you answer in detail, but when I ask this question you're aloof.

Maybe on a go forward basis; you can use financial terms that are commonly used in the financial markets by speculators, instead of make believe words; readers might understand your comments if you do, instead of guessing at your answers.

Or even better, come clean, define your brilliance, and educate us all.

You might consider telling me which word or set of words above seem unclear to you.

I intend to keep reading FAQ and learning/practicing the processes you have developed. I would like to visit the Tahoe Tribe to catch up on your recent advances in the Rocks Process. I just need to get a few good trades for some income first. I am having a few month dry spell. I missed a few great trades.

Thanks,

You might consider continuing to find ways to avoid taking your feelings about <missing out> to Tribe.

Bad to Good

Dear Sir,


Have you ever considered bringing up a proprietary trading company similar to those standard prop / arcade, high frequency trading shops?

BTW, this initiative can be profitable for the owners and also can spawn new ideas regarding short-term trading system research. Eventual successful traders could carry their profits into long-term strategies as well as market their performance based on the generated track record.

The way I see it, the TT could develop one, hire traders and join that with TTP, FAQ and the Associate Program so to generate new aha’s about switching to long term trend following after their experiences.

Just a thought.

Clip: http://phdboys.com/images/matt/smoker.jpg

After that session and in response to the concerns I had at the time, I made the decision to move my family to a nicer home, in a nicer community with a better school district. Within two months of that session, we successfully made that move and resolved many of the issues that were of concern to me and my family. I greatly appreciate your having developed these processes and your willingness to share the TTP innovations and developments.

Thank you for sharing your process.

Wants Help

Ed,

Thanks for replying, I know I have only scraped the surface of trend following. I would start by asking where do I start when developing trend following as a trader. I know I have a long road ahead of me, where do I start, what do I put my time and effort into?

I appreciate you help.

I just want you to know I think of you often. I read FAQ, and I'm watching your progress. Thanks for being a shining example.

Thank you for your support.

I need to learn how to plan myself when i come to trading arena and how to do right things at right time. I want to work under a pro like you where I could see how things happen and learn how to do things in right manner. I still remember that your favorite quote "Everybody gets what they want from markets" I haven't got my share.

regards

2007/06/01/1180205514393.html

Your "technology" seems to enter  and exit on fairly short-term indications.  You might consider taking you feelings about <riding major trends> to Tribe.

Dear Ed!

As I now implemented a metric into my back-testing program that ensures that I have enough equity to get into a position I am now interested in finding ways to select stocks that enhance the probability of a winning trade or improving the potential reward/risk relation. As random stock picking indicates the performance of trend trading systems is highly determined by the stocks/futures you pick.

Do you have any suggestions of techniques I could investigate in that might be useful for this matter?

Relating to my question about an attainable bliss-value: The declaration in Market Wizards indicates a acgr of at least 72% normalized for withdrawals ( ( ( 5,000 * 1,000 (1 million%) ) / 17 (years) ) ^1/17 ).

This also indicates that a bliss of about 1 is attainable :-)

I am committed to integrate a comparison to a “buy-and-hold”-strategy when testing trading systems.

Kindest Regards,

graphic_design/future_city_downtown.jpg

Your question: I wonder how you might describe the positive intention of Lucy. Intentions = Results for all the participants.


My response:

Power / Isolation (they may be mutually inclusive)
 

You might consider taking your feelings about <power and isolation> to Tribe.

She created a great decision (move / don't move with different options - sell, rent, etc.) spreadsheet that definitely counters my fears. Nevertheless, I am caught between wanting to move and not wanting to take a loss. Sounds like a lot of "investors" who hold onto a losing trade instead of cutting losses. Trying to think like a trend follower, I realize that I should cut my losses here and move. I wish there were a way to short houses (other than shorting real estate ETFs that are trending down)!

I am certain that this kind of situation will appear in my trading, so the Trading Tribe approach is a must for me. I tend to agree intellectually with a system but doubt it at the same time yet ignore my emotions about it. I really admire Livermore as he portrays himself in Reminiscences of a Stock Operator and would like to approach trading (and life) like he did.

Anyway, this is all by way of introducing myself. Thank you for running your Trading Tribe program. I'm looking forward to it.

Thanks for your help,

I do not monitor the activity in individual Tribes, aside from reading reports to FAQ.

Aren't these deviations dangerous as they violated the 'system' ? Are these deviations playground for Fred like you put it?

2.
My metaphor for the system is a 'Strict teacher who slow poisons you if you do not listen to her or even argue'

3.
Thank you very much for everything.

4.
Any statement widely accepted has to be generic enough (read doesn't really say much to the point) so that people can have their own interpretations and adapt it and apply it as they like it. Also it helps if the 'statement-maker' is well known and has a fan following. That way people who like it or claim to do so have wider acceptability amongst other people, since "that guy" said it.

5.
"Everybody gets what they want from the market" - fits (4) well.

6.
I am doing well in the markets ever since I "met" you.

PS. I am also secretly falling in love with my teacher.

Posting to FAQ is a curious way to keep secrets.

Hi Ed,

Good to hear from you.

As you might guess, the variations in performance are due to:

· The markets included in my tradable universe

· The addition of an exit which gets me out of parabolic moves (most of the time)

· Various limits on sector positions and correlations

· Adjusting performance for 2% & 20%

Thanks to you and the tribe, I do not seem to have any drama about following the system. However, I have to say that (last summer aside) the trading environment has been conducive to following my system.

I wonder, am I under or over-performing the version you have on file?

Thanks,

archives/images/DRA%20Drug%20Rules.jpg

As I read the email, I start to have thoughts about my bully drama. I start to feel certain feelings. I move my attention to the drama to avoid the programming issue. I use it as a distraction to avoid the now.

Thanks

Thank you for sharing your process.

Trend Following

Mr. Ed Seykota,

I am a student at [University] where I study agricultural business. I have come across you name studying trend line trading. I am from a small rural community in Illinois and some how have found my way from the farm to Chicago, interning at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange for a second summer. I will be going back to Western to finish my masters in the fall.

I plan to use this time to develop a trend style trading system for myself. I was wondering if I could discuss trend following with you at your convenience and would be open to any of your ideas and advice. I would like to trade using trend following and feel that any guidance from experienced trend followers could help me advance more than anything else.

I appreciate your time.

You might consider working through the TSP exercises on this site.

Dear Ed,


I've been searching around trying to find out if you still accept clients and from the tribe site I can only guess it is a maybe, rare, and if you like them.

My girlfriend is receiving roughly 250,000 in the next few weeks and has been interviewing various planners to determine who will best suit her needs. They are not very impressive, lots of fees and a basket of mutual funds.

I had come across your site a few years ago while house bound taking care of my grandmother with dementia and I was quite impressed by your humor and knowledge. I plan on trading once I figure out myself, a system, and decide if I should trade or find someone that does it better. At present I'm rather caught up recovering my own financials from the 3 year hiatus with grandmother so my time for research and development are limited.

My girlfriend needs someone that can guide her funds to ensure financial stability for future years. She won't need to live off those funds, rather to have them grow and compound for later years for her and her kids. I myself would love to place funds with you but I have less than 10% of what she has available for investing.

She would be hands off and leave the driving to you and just wants occasional updates. She is a great woman that has had a couple hard years with her former relationship, becoming a single mom, and health issues but she is strong and optimistic with a forward attitude. I can be reached at (phone number) if you have any questions.

Have a Great Day!

Fountain/5540/Peterpeter.html

 
Dear Sir,

I quit.

All the best,

My guess is that you are still doing something.

Morgan,

Intern

Hi Ed,

I was wondering if it would be possible to pay for the workshop using PayPal?

Also, I was curious if there was no tasks, researches, projects, dirty jobs related to trading you were planning to do. I would love to be your virtual intern, maybe as the same time that could help me have a scholarship / discount for your workshop in Reno.

Please let me know.

I can bill you separately for an apprenticeship.

re: May 24, 2008 FAQ, "Warren Buffet"

Hi Ed,

This morning I read a passage from a book ... which echoes your suggestion about riding with the genie rather than merely lamenting its release, a la Buffet:

"[I]t will no longer be sufficient to project forward on the basis of economic and financial fundamentals alone. Instead, and more often, it will also be necessary to understand the extent to which the technical dimensions of markets that are driven by financial innovation can, and do, influence the fundamentals in what are increasingly two-way interactions."

Thanks again for all of your work. FAQ is an amazing seminar for which I am enormously grateful.

OK.

Dear Ed

I am a finance professional and would like to pursue trading as my career. I'd appreciate if you could guide me as to how to turn myself into a professional trader. I have no one to guide me and when I got my hands on Market Wizards by Schwager, I read ur interview and was quite fascinated with your passion for trading.

Kindly help me out.

Regards

You might consider taking your feelings of <wanting guidance> to Tribe.

Dear Ed

My (German) girlfriend just saw your Whipsaw video and said you were "sympatische". She's not at all interested in trading but I think she appreciates a good sense of humour, so thank you for that.

Aside from all the material you have prepared in the TSP pages, what I found extremely helpful were the Trade Log and Equity Log files on the Donchian page. Seeing an actual log in each case gave much guidance at a crucial stage in the system design process.

In appreciation,

Thank you for the encouragement.

My name is [name], live in [City]. looking to speak to some via ph. about joining and such as I can not type very well for emaill communication.

Any one avaialable?

Y

2) normalizing profit margins, which in most cases today results in lower earnings and higher valuations.


 

heavy_luggage.jpg

Thank you Ed,

http://www.exceldiamonds.com/diamond-tips/dirt%20cheap.jpg

Hi Ed,

I don’t like being told what to feel, being awarded ‘employee of the month’ makes me excited for a short while but in reality I have flaws and they are overlooked when I am rewarded, it hurts me on the long run to forget that I can improve for the sake of cheering for a short while.

I agree with compounding profits but we must also mention the losses because only then we can know the net result.

The point is celebrating for something makes me forget about the reason and get the short term thrill of feeling success as ‘money’ or ‘free parking space’ or ‘printed certificate’; as opposed to feeling success as a group as a result of a systematic process which by celebrating reminds us of the whole picture and gives us the excitement of knowing our part is significant as part of a bigger success as a group.

Regards
 

OK.

Dear Mr. Seykota,

the Community is helping me a lot our new Tribe. I consider inviting my wife to participate at it. I do not intend to suggest it to her nor think that she needs it, I just love the idea of sharing the experience with her. I appreciate your thoughts about family members participating at Tribe meetings.

Sincerely yours,

Clip: http://www.visitmaui.com/mauikids.html