TTP Workshop !

July 18-20, Reno, Nevada

Questions

(Quotes from Ed in Red)

Wed, 30 Apr 2008

TTP Workshop Preparation - Parents Bullying Kids

Hi Ed,

I am sending my application for the workshop. I want to apply as a reviewer. I am attaching my essay with this e-mail.

I want to thank you for the work you do with TTP and for keeping FAQ posted. I recall reading FAQ’s for the first time in October 2005. Reading FAQ’s, I discover that if I am willing, I can change certain things in my life. I learn that I have to look inside me and work on myself. I also recall learning about Breathwork reading FAQs.

I recall your explanation about Breathwork during the Jan 07 workshop. Since then, I have four experiences with Breathwork. These experiences are very special for me. I hope to attend someday one of the Breathwork sessions you held at Incline Village.

In my area, I hold TTP meetings once in a while with some friends or relatives. I do not practice TTP as much as I wish. I find that not everybody is willing to work on themselves. This is ok with me now. I accept it.

I am applying to the Workshop to work on some issues. I specifically have one issue in mind. I feel that I have a Rock. My issue is that sometimes I allow certain people to pick on me and tease me constantly. I recall seeing this issue manifest enormously during my last years in high school. Even though, I feel uncomfortable, I can not tell the other person to stop. I freeze up. I can not react or move. I feel my legs shaking and a pressure on my chest. After the situation, I feel anger for not defending me the way I wish. I recall a situation a few months ago where I recall feeling the same physical symptoms.

Reading some rock process examples, I recall an incident.

I am 9 years old. I am playing fights with a friend. We are the same age. We are in my friend’s bedroom. I grab my friend around his neck. I am not doing anything wrong. I know that I am stronger than my friend.

I am just playing. Suddenly, I see that my friend is crying. It seems that I am pressing his neck to hard. I try to apologize. He runs away. He finds his dad who is having lunch in the dining room. He comes back with his dad. The dad tells me that I am abusing his son.

I see anger on his face. I feel fear. I say that I am sorry that we are just playing. He does not care about my explanations. He tells his son to do the same with me. The son grabs me around my neck and starts to press hard. I start to cry. I feel paralysis. I do not know what to do. I can not defend myself. The dad tells me to just accept it if I do not want him to intervene.

This friend’s parents are also my mother’s friend. The dad also tells me that even though he appreciates my mom, because of this incident he wants to break any relationship with my mother. I recall some of my feelings. I also recall thinking that I can not call or tell my dad about the incident. I feel powerless. (I live with my mother. My dad is out of town. I do not where he is. He leaves without saying goodbye.)

My friend’s grandmother, who also lives in the house, intervenes. She tells the dad to stop it that I am just a kid. I am in shock. I am crying. She takes me to her room and closes the door. She gives me some water. The dad keeps yelling at me. He stops after a while. After the incident, the dad drives my friend and me to a school presentation. I recall feeling very sad during the presentation.

After the presentation, he picks me up and drives me home. This time, my friend’s mom is also in the car. She tells me that she is sorry about the incident. He tells the dad to control his anger. She tells me that my behavior is also incorrect. When I get home, I see my mom working in the garden. I say hi and go to my room. I never talk to anybody about the incident. My friend’s parents also never tell my mother about the incident.

In my family, I see a similar pattern in my mother’s behavior. Sometimes, she allows certain people to cross her personal boundaries. I recall seeing this behavior especially with certain relatives or people she knows. Therefore, I do not know if I get the “rock” through her or during the incident that I am describing above. Anyhow, I want to change this behavior.

I list some proactive responses:

1) Look at the other person in the eyes, and tell him/her to stop. I mean it!

2) Ask for the other person intention.

3) Express my feelings.

4) Ask for the other person’s feeling.

5) Express my point of view.

Thank you for sharing your process.

You might consider ways in which you use the bully drama to distract yourself from implementing right livelihood.

Attracting Bullies

can be part

of a medicinal pattern.

Tue, 29 Apr 2008

Property Taxes

Tue, 29 Apr 2008

Trading System Project -

Exponential Average Crossover
 

Tue, 29 Apr 2008

Whipsaw Song
 

Ed,

Tue, 29 Apr 2008

Ed-ification

 
Ed,

Thank you for your commitment to the Trading Tribe Book. Thank you for your commitment to the Trading Tribe Website.

Tue, 29 Apr 2008

Magic Cookie

Mr. Seykota-

Good day to you sir. I hope this correspondence finds you well. I recently read Trend Following books and I was hoping for your opinion.

I’ve always been a believer that following the trend is a viable strategy to a prosperous trading career. However, I continue to turn small piles of cash into smoke trying to prove this postulation.

Failure seems exponentially frustrating but my experience tells me emotion must be fleeting.

I spent the first part of my career in the rat race before going into business for myself. My efforts have been rewarding, but not without extensive physical hard work and many long hours.

As a General Contractor I have also been intimate with the risk / reward relationship. However, in Contracting, you stomach ALL the risk. By implementing some discipline, I now operate with a minute amount of risk compared to the life of a contractor. Of course, that minutia becomes infinite if I cannot keep my portfolio on the correct side of the equity curve.

My education, like you, is in engineering. I graduated from Purdue University with a BS in Civil Engineering. As an engineer, I embrace the mind over matter discipline. Having a rigid system that qualifies all signals is a much more reasonable approach than any emotional response that I can muster.

It’s just, where does one go from here? Lewis Carroll’s Cheshire cat says the road you take only matters if you know where you want to go. I know where I want to be, but I’m still in the due diligence process trying to sort out which road makes the most sense.

Everybody has an investment product they are willing to sell, yet, where is the managed funds hero for the little guy? Am I left without hope? Am I stuck with the financial pornography of the Barons and Jim Cramers of the world? I hope not.

I know this can be done. I can see that it is possible. I am now in the due diligence process to figure out the how. This guy wants $1,000, the next guy wants $6,000, somebody else wants $25,000 and I’d pay all three of those prices if any 1 of them helps me become as successful as Richard Dennis, John Henry, Bill Dunn, or you sir.

At some point, however, the capital has to be allocated to the market in order to capture more capital. These knowledge resource experiences are exhausting.

I feel like a light bulb that is a quarter turn short in its socket. I just needs a little bit of tightening for the light to come on.

I’m happy to invest in any product that helps facilitate my efforts in a prosperous trading career. I am, however, quite the skeptic. One guy is selling a course, yet he’s not a trader and never been a trader. Another guy is selling a course, recommends staying away from the other courses, and has made a name with what appears to be maybe a tasteless unethical approach. I don’t want to throw good money after bad. I also want to make a wise decision in my search for a mentor. What I have seen so far is that maybe the aforementioned cares less about my trading career and more about the products they sell.

I’m hoping for some seasoned advice that might point to some valuable resources opportunities. I know there is not a magic cookie that I can eat or investment product that I can buy that will turn my net worth into 8 figures. That will only come with extensive hard work and refined discipline.

A Trend Following system consists of (1) some Trend Following math and (2) some resolve to follow the math.

You are likely strongest in the math department. 

Shakespeare might be able to help you find the the quarter turn you are seeking.

You might also consider taking your concerns to Tribe or to a Workshop.

Lady Macbeth

We fail!

But screw your courage

to the sticking-place,

And we'll not fail.

Clip:http://notexactlyrocketscience.files.

wordpress.com/2006/10/ellen_terry_at_

Mon, 28 Apr 2008

Trading Metaphors - Solving a Puzzle

Ed says (FAQ, Using 3-D Patterns / System Metaphors, 3/7/03), "Traders tend to personalize the relationships they have with their systems. Some might see an authority figure, all full of arbitrary rules, or one who punishes and invalidates ... Some might see a puzzle, that needs continual re-solving and tinkering.

I suggest you find out what metaphor you hold for your system, and then make sure it in alignment with stable and lasting adherence to sound trading principles."

This is quite interesting. The example you cite resonates with me. [Trading is a] puzzle that needs continual re-solving and tinkering.

Upon further pondering, my trading system feels like an intellectual challenge to me - like coming up with a master plan / constitution / mission statement that is applicable in all situations - on which I can rely to base my decisions. If this is my metaphor, then how do I make sure it is in alignment with stable and lasting adherence to sound trading principles?

I'd take that sound trading principles are:

1. Go with Trend,

2. Ride winners, and

3. Cut losers and

4. Manage Risk.

You might consider noticing if your trading is in line with right livelihood or if it merely provides medication for deeper issues.

Puzzle Pieces

You can assemble them

and then you can take them apart again.

That's pretty much it

for puzzles.

Clip: http://www.menudospeques.net/images/

Mon, 28 Apr 2008

Stop Using Stop Losses (Spam Ad)

Dear Investor,

If you’re tired of stop losses, learn how to adjust trades to turn losers into winners!

Let’s face it – even after conducting the most thorough analysis, sometimes your stock picks move in the wrong direction. Unfortunately most investors only know how to use stop losses or other “loss minimizing” strategies when that happens.

But what if there were a way to “adjust” your trades to actually turn those losing stock picks into winners?

Attempts to adjust losers into winners accompany the path to even bigger losers.

If You Find Yourself

Going in the Wrong Direction

you might consider

getting off the train

and examining your options.

Clip: http://www.njshoppingmall.com/

bachmann-train-sets-bachmann-scale-train-sets

Sun, 27 Apr 2008

Futility in Deterministic Approach

Sun, 27 Apr 2008

Dancing and Fighting

Ed,

Fri, 25 Apr 2008

Whipsaw Song

Ed,

Fri, 25 Apr 2008

Pro-Crastinator

Hi Guys.

First I want to thank Ed for coming to [City], leading the meeting and sharing with us his ideas about what it takes to overcome blocks and have goals realized.

Thank you [Name] for hosting the meeting once again and thanks to every one else for attending and making the meeting happen. My mind was continually busy thinking about issues I have dealt with and am still dealing with as others shared both their issues and goals they want to see accomplished. I think this is one of the things that make TTP so powerful is that as others share we see our own struggles and also our own solutions in them.

I agreed to email [Name] Monday to set up a time to call him to discuss my system I am working on and as the day went on I found my self getting busier and busier.

I had planned to take my wife to the doctor for some tests she had scheduled on Tuesday and felt I had to get things organized before I left [work] Monday. I emailed him and let him know it would be Wednesday before I could call.

The same thing happened Wednesday where I was busy and I asked to call him after [work] that evening or Thursday. We agreed to Thursday and I did make the call.

We agreed to compare notes and ideas on what we are doing trading wise. I got to watch myself running around being busy, putting off the email, stressing and micro managing every little detail at work to have an excuse to put off the call.

Thank you for sharing your process.

Getting Busy

is sometimes a good way

to put off

getting buys.

Clip: http://sameerdurrani.blogspot.com/

Fri, 25 Apr 2008

PhD

Thank you for sharing your process.

Pontificating

can provide medication

as well as information

for both the sender

and the receiver.

Clip: http://www.merryswankster.com/

Fri, 25 Apr 2008

Wants USD / JPY Prediction

You might consider taking your feeling of <wanting someone else to tell you what to do> to Tribe.

Slaves

have the freedom

to take responsibility

for their condition.

Clip: http://www.latinamericanstudies.org/

Thu, 24 Apr 2008

Updating TTID

Thu, 24 Apr 2008

Do It Now

Thank you for sharing your process.

Struggle

can

advance you

toward right livelihood

and it can also

distract you

from deeper issues.

Clip: http://www.benyei.com/galleries/

Thu, 24 Apr 2008

Running the Marathon - Update

I have purchased a marathon training plan for the [City] Marathon. This plan lays out a training program which commences on Sept 18 and runs till the Marathon. This training plan assumes that I can run 6 miles comfortably when it begins. My primary goal for the summer is to be able to comfortably run 6 miles before Sept 18.

The schedule for my summer goal is to be able to run 1.5 miles by end of May, 3 by end June, 4.5 by end July and 6 miles by the end of August. In addition, my resources tell me that losing weight is important to achieving this goal. I will lose an average of 5 pounds per month so that I weigh less than 195 on Sept 18. I commit to sending out progress reports on these goals to everyone supporting me at then end of each month.

My plan for the first several days was to build my resources for this project. I have made commitments to my Tribe, I have found several websites and a local running store that have been useful, I have made a commitment to my friend who has run this marathon and enlisted his help. I have also had several conversations with my wife about motivations and goals, which segues into the next topic.

Risks

I see several risk in this undertaking, mostly involving potential dramas with my wife. Over the last several years, we have come to recognize dramas in our life and can talk about them (thanks Ed / tribe). My wife and I discussed these dramas (before I made my commitment). By recognizing them and being open about them to the point of writing them down, my wife and I hope to mostly avoid these cycles. The thought occurs to me that planning on running a Marathon is a great way to start several of these dramas.

Self Improvement Drama

There are several dramas in this area. They basically go 1. I improves my self. 2. I feel increasingly emboldened to try to get my wife to improve as well. 3. This is meets resistance (withdrawal, resentment, feelings of low self worth) 4. Wife/I both have anger / resentment from having our sense of fairness trodden on. This was a common drama for us several years ago but we rarely fall into it now.

Sabotage

Wed, 23 Apr 2008

Price Volatility System

Futures markets typically allow delivery of physical grain against the contract - motivating a convergence of futures and cash prices at expiration.

Tue, 22 Apr 2008

Tue, 22 Apr 2008

Defining Medication

Ed,

Tue, 22 Apr 2008

No Security Thread on Essentials Card

Hi Ed,

Yesterday i received the TT Essentials 'credit' card. Thank you kindly for that. It now lives in my wallet.

I'm a bit intrigued.

I notice that these cards don't seem to have much in the way of security features. (i.e. No security thread, No watermark, No special security window).

Tue, 22 Apr 2008

Wants Trading Skill

Tue, 22 Apr 2008

Diversification of Lag Parameters

Dear Ed,

Following our telephone conversation of 24 March...

My research plan is to find if combining different forms of trend following systems produces significant performance benefits – compared to running the systems alone.

The 3 types of systems used in this test are:

Donchian; as used in the Support/Resistance system project in the TSP pages. Two-Box; similar to the Support/Resistance system, except there is no separate trend definition; rather the system enters on a break of the farther look-back extreme and exits on a break of the nearer look-back extreme.

EMA Crossover; similar to the Exponential Crossover System on the TSP pages.

My previous research looks at combining identical S/R systems with different frequencies. My finding is that this produces a small performance gain – but not the standout gains we are looking for.

In this research I wish to investigate performance gain due only to the diversification across system types, not frequencies. Therefore I decide to use the same parameters across all 3 systems for each test. This does not guarantee the systems have the same frequency, as they each operate differently. However, when I inspect the test runs I see the maximum variation in the number of trades between the systems is 17%; therefore I am confident that the systems have similar frequency.

I decide to test combining the different systems for 3 separate frequencies. I select parameter pairs: 30/60 (high frequency), 60/120 (medium frequency) and 90/180 (low frequency). I limit the high frequency system to 30/60 in an effort to stop execution costs over running the performance.

My testing platform awards trades at the system price. I set the test to charge $85 slippage and commission on round turns, including rolls. I use a portfolio of the following 5 markets: Crude Oil, Gold, Live Cattle, Sugar and Wheat. The testing period is 1 January 1976 to 11 April 2008. Note Crude Oil does not start trading until 1983.

For each parameter set (frequency) I use the following procedure:

I run the 3 systems individually (in blue). I use a risk budget of 0.03. I calculate the MAR value for each run and take the average of these values. This gives a measure of how the systems perform individually.

Thank you for sending this research.

It confirms my own conclusions.

Mon, 21 Apr 2008

Intention Requires Action

Ed,

After our TT meeting yesterday, I have been thinking about intention and manifesting of intention through actions. I Googled up "creation of reality through actions" and what I found was an article that had this in it:

"Manifesting and requesting ... comprise only half of proper living. The other half is personal effort and action ... You Create Your Own Reality is a popular new ager concept that promotes the idea that these two things are sufficient to create everything one needs, that no effort at all is necessary ... Its followers become armchair experiencers. Like spectators of television football games, they may be watching exercise happen, but they themselves become increasingly out of shape. Doing reality creation without putting forth personal effort leads to an analogous situation, spiritual stagnation."

I also wrote this down as a paraphrase of something you said yesterday: "Anything that diverts you from taking that right action in support of your intention is medication."

Thanks again,

Work applies applying force over a distance.

Exerting force and not moving is not work; neither is travelling a distance without exerting force.

No Work

The fellow in the picture at the right is holding up his end of that bit of pipe while the machine is holding up the other. Unless the pipe moves up or down, neither of them do any work.

Mon, 21 Apr 2008

Trends-Exercise

Dear Ed,

as I have access to historical stocks data now and I am currently writing a program to duplicate your Trends-Exercise-results I am wondering that your computation for the exponential lag in the trends-exercise is:

lag[0] = lag[1] + (price – la[1]) / timeconstant

whereas the computation in the exponential average system is:

lag[0] = lag[1] + (price – lag[1]) /

((timeconstant + 1) / 2)

The conversion,

ETC = (MAD + 1) / 2

 

where

 

ETC = Exponential Time Constant

MAD = Moving Average Days

is an attempt to equalize the shapes of the exponential lag and moving average. 

Mon, 21 Apr 2008

Entry Signal

Dear Mr. Seykota,

in the night I see a report about psychiatric disorders in children. A young, intelligent woman with anorexia, a disease which intrigues me, says "by starving I could kill my feelings" (durch Hungern konnte ich meine Gefühle töten). Hmmm....

You wrote "I support you in continuing to find ways to enhance right-livelihood without resorting to
pharmacological remedies".

I thank you very much and accept your support. I realize that Tribe and myself have been moving asymptotically for several years. The lines crossed some weeks ago. In trend trading systems, this usually indicates an entry signal.

I commit to start and develop a Tribe in Berlin, Germany. I need your help and the support of other members to do the work.

While Workshop attendance is not a requisite, it is likely to accelerate your progress.