Questions

(Quotes from Ed in Red)

Mon, 14 Apr 2008

Theory of Magazine Covers

Hi Ed,

I know of longitudinal studies in which researchers attempt to quantify text articles by word search and word frequency algorithms - and then correlate this information with the phase of long-term stock market cycles.  One complexity with this approach is that over this duration, the meanings of words change and stylistic preferences for employing specific words change.

The only methods I know to assess the emotional content of covers employs people to experience the covers and report out their feelings.

Trading is essentially discretionary; it rests on many discretionary preferences such as about whether or not to trade, how to trade and what to trade.

You might consider taking your feelings about <discretion and discipline> to Tribe.

Discipline

Discipline

Discipline

Discipline may be a matter

of different strokes

for different folks.

Clips: http://etc.usf.edu/clipart 

http://www.allposters.com/-sp/Discipline-Posters_i838616_.htm

http://leatherthornpaddles.homestead.com/

Mon, 14 Apr 2008

Notes on Rocks Process

Hi Ed-

Thank you for your generous help at our meeting last week.

I am amazed how much better I feel and how skillfully you applied the TT concepts within the flow of conversation.

Here’s my notes:

I arrive with motivation to take my psychological development to the next level and quite frankly wondering what exactly that means!

I give my best guess and state my issue as lapses in self-discipline, with examples in over-eating and over-trading.

Ed asserts that these are all solutions -- ways of distracting myself from problems that likely exist in the core areas of living: work, love, play.

He asks if I am willing to work on the underlying issues instead and I say yes.

We discuss my long-distance relationship with <Significant Other> – looking for drama sources.

I describe how the relationship works well now, even long-distance, and I report uneasiness on the topic of ever finding a way of living together with <SO>, especially since I vividly recall a time when I gave signals that I would move with <SO> to <city> but then didn’t. We went looking at houses and I got immersed in picking out kitchen tile before deciding that I didn’t want to live there year round. <SO> now owns a house there and I am ensconced on the other coast, but I feel this living together issue is unresolved.

Ed asks me to role play with < Tribe Member> about telling <SO> how I feel.

< Tribe Member> does a superb job of drawing me into being me.

Ed “catches me” repeatedly trying to push the decision onto <SO> and asks me to really get into that feeling.

I do and describe a bowling-ball feeling in my stomach and a wall in front of my face.

Ed asks me to remember other times in my life when I’ve felt this way faced with a decision.

I describe several and Ed focuses on the earliest, which involves a decision between public or private school.

Ed asks if I can recall an early role model for this behavior

I pick my mother, who I recall pushing the decisions onto my father and then punishing him for making the wrong one.

Ed jokes that I learned both roles, which is true: I try to push the decision onto someone else but if I must decide myself, I punish myself for the wrong choice!

We go through the Rocks Process which I think amounts to two parts:

Coaching me to use more constructive resources, complete with role play for practice

Rock ceremonial ritual to help emotionally give up the old behaviors and embrace the new

My new list of resources from the meeting is:

Gather information

Use another person as a sounding board

Get a mentor

Choose “no choice now”

Breathe, smile, wait for a good idea

Pace the other person

 

We check out, and formally end the session.

Mon, 14 Apr 2008

The Whipsaw Song - YouTube Comments

I have been a trend follower for a while now and as you know its always an ongoing battle to "follow the rules" and now I use this video every morning to reinforce the essentials. Great job guys!

Thanks for the tune and the artful way of presenting the Essentials.

A very nice tune! You seem to have lots of fun !
I like your solo playing after each verse.

Great song! May we be with the trend ...

Nice job Ed.

Great music and solid advice. :)

You are a Ledge ... er ... I don't know how you do it !

Congratulations on achieving your target weight. Great song and message !

What a peppy, cheerful tune...
(it's a toe-tapper)
and a great message, too.
Good job, gentlemen!

It needs lyrics with a bouncing ball...so we can all sing along. 8)

THIS GUY IS A LEGEND

I love this song sir. Please put up more videos on emotions and how to overcome it. and interview would be nice. but talks on trend trading will suffice. more power to the trading tribe.

Mon, 14 Apr 2008

Healthy Look

Ed,

I saw you on YOU TUBE - looks like you've lost a few pounds.

Keep up the good work.

-----
 

Are you still struggling with weight loss?

I did all through my twenties.

I got up to about 250 lbs. I now go about 210 lbs.I'm still 10 lbs too heavy.

Diet and exercise are the key. But of course you already know that.

There are some secrets.
 

Breakfast like a king.
Lunch like a prince.
Dinner like a pauper.

Sun, 13 Apr 2008

Whipsaw Fun

Ed,

Sun, 13 Apr 2008

Happy New Year

May 5110 be as good as 5109!

Sun, 13 Apr 2008

Wants to Trade Magazine Covers

One theory of magazine covers is that they signal the arrival of public awareness - and with it, choppy markets and high volatility.

In that case, you might consider that lightening up on existing positions could be less risky than entering new ones or adding on.

You might consider taking your feelings of <wanting to be a hero> to Tribe. 

Heroic Riders

Sometimes they get

to pick the girls

Sometimes they get

to pick pieces of coral

out of their butts.

Sun, 13 Apr 2008

Feeling the Phoenix

see Previous

Mr. Seykota,

Thank you for your response. I notice, though not with "real" money, an uneasiness in my gut when looking at the daily equity balance of the phoenix system run.

I intend to follow a long term trend following system including staying in the game long term!

Sat, 12 Apr 2008

Rocks Process

The Rocks Process is an attempt to structure the process of replacing addictive behavior with pro-active behavior.

In Tribe work, the Rocks Process serves as a learning tool, assisting people in experiencing the dynamics and intentions of addiction.

Like training wheels, its intention is to disappear as a passing AHA as the associating learnings integrate naturally into the process of life.

As with other growth vehicles that you mention, such as relationship, recreation, dance, religion and recovery groups, people can also press TTP into service addictively - and use it to prevent realizing right-livelihood.

The Rocks Process is a Tool

for replacing addiction with pro-action.

Without a commitment

to right-livelihood

vehicles for personal growth

can be like training wheels

without a bicycle.

Sat, 12 Apr 2008

Feelings and Disease - Three Actual Cases

Dear Mr. Seykota,

thank you very much for The Whipsaw Song. I enjoy it a lot.

On April 4 you mention that TTP is largely empirical and its evolution relies on such first-hand reports.

I can contribute with three reports. As you know, I am not a psychotherapist; hence, I am not trying to make popular any therapy method, but to open my observations to discussion.

1. Young female swimmer, consults on Wednesday with a bronchial infection (cough, fever). She is familiar with the role of emotions in causing diseases and is open to a discussion of her problem. We look for the "trigger" and find that she has a race on Saturday; she mentions that she is afraid of disappointing her coach. She accepts her performance, good or less good, and sees that her disease is a resource to excuse a bad performance. Fever and cough resolve spontaneously within 30 minutes.

2. Female, 50 years, consults with severe shoulder pain. Pain has been present for 3 days; she remembers a discussion with her husband few days ago. When I ask her about her feelings / sensations during the discussion, she mentions that she felt an urge to hit her husband, what she did not do. We talk about her love for his husband and the futility of developing pain instead of communicating her feelings / opinion to her husband. The pain resolves spontaneously within 30 minutes.

3. A young runner consults with sore throat and fever. He is acquainted with the relationship of mind and body in diseases and, when asked about the "trigger" or context of the problem he remembers to be very angry to her sister and not telling her about it. Shortly after our talk he tells her about the problem and communicates her his feelings. Fever and pain resolve spontaneously within 1 hour, he can reassume his training the same day.

The cases are real. The spontaneous resolution of symptoms within a short time is real too. The association can be explained as spontaneous healing, good luck, or coincidence.

Thank you for your email presenting some actual cases of treating disease by experiencing feelings. 

I support you in continuing to find ways to enhance right-livelihood without resorting to pharmacological remedies.

Your work triggers some of my own recollections and, yes, I can comment from the TTP point of view.

In TTP we hold that people generate emotions in response to situations and that these emotions, in turn, motivate responses. 

Situation --> Emotion --> Response

We may not be consciously aware of our emotions; we are mostly aware of our associating feelings; others may notice our associating affects.

Our emotions trigger responses on a deep, automatic level.  We touch something hot and we remove our hand, even before we become aware of the situation.  We smell chlorine and we think of going swimming in a pool.  We have feelings about our performance and we develop a cough.

Situation --> Emotion --> Response

^             ^           |

|             |           |

\<-------- Action --------/

Some of our responses are pro-active and contribute toward right livelihood; these responses tend to operate on the situation motivating the emotion, thus closing the loop;  others responses are medicinal and act to sedate the feeling; they prevent the emotion from effecting a pro-active situational response.

I call these various emotional response patterns Resources and I call the set of resources that respond to a particular emotion a Rock.

In the TTP Rocks process, we survey the Rock, identifying its emotional location and its catalog of resources and we locate an historical critical event memory in which a Rock Donor (typically a parent) presents the Rock to the client. 

If the client appears with a "problem" or "addiction," we typically discover medicinal responses in the Rock that mirror the family pattern of dealing with similar stress.

We rarely view the the medicinal patterns, or addictions, as problems that we need to fix.  Indeed, we view them the same way the client views them, as solutions.  The medicinal pattern is typically the solution to the problem of making the "bad" feelings go away.

We begin by acknowledging the positive intention of the Medicinal Rock and then we go on to create a new Rock that supplements the medicinal responses with pro-active responses.

We then access the emotional location of the Rock by re-enacting the client's memory of the presentation of the Rock.  The client then has an opportunity to refuse the Rock (forgive it, not the donor) and to accept the new Pro-Active Rock.  This tends to implement the learning in the emotional body, as well as in the logical mind.

As this process progresses, we test frequently for client willingness to progress, and we rely on the client to motivate this process, so the Tribe does not move into trying to "fix" the client.

The Tribe serves as a context in which the client can do his own work at his own speed.

The interventions you cite seem consistent with my experience of  "brief therapy" and may be quite effective, particularly in the short run, for generating a "miracle cure."  In effect you are assisting the client to experience and to disappear medicinal response patterns.

Perhaps the miracle cure works and that is the end of it.

However, you might consider following up with your clients to determine if they are now generating any substitute medicinal dramas to replace the original dramas.

For example, unless the girl with the cough develops deep automatic pro-active response patterns to her emotions about <disappointing others> she may come up with alternative medicinal responses such as <other type of disabling injury>.

You might also note that while the original drama,  <having a cough>, aims to medicate <disappointment> it also tends to hamper performance and provoke <disappointment>. 

The nature of K-nots and Rocks is that they tend to entrain the very dramas they attempt to repress and medicate.  These dynamics are consistent with the observation, "What you resist, persists."

If you view <disappointment> itself as another medicinal drama, you might find that <disappointment> might have its own positive intention of medicating even deeper issues about right livelihood, relationships, health and recreation.

In this way, <disappointment> may be medication for intimacy issues and <cough> might be secondary medication for <disappointment>.

Brief Therapy may sometimes work quickly and effectively and a competent practitioner can administer it subtly and artistically, say with a hug or a smile or a kind word - or even a song. 

Sometimes, the client and the practitioner might not be consciously aware of a  therapeutic transaction.

In cases where there is conscious decision by both parties to open this can of worms and play with them, they might find that they might need a bigger can in which to recapture them.

Disappointment

might be the "solution"

to deeper issues.

Sat, 12 Apr 2008

TT Workshop & System Progress

Need to Predict / Ride Trends

 
Hi Ed,

I am excited to see a TT workshop is available. I put my application with essay in the mailbox today.

Many days pass and I recall thinking about sending a system update and not doing it. I have progress to report; however I feel stuck.

This is a familiar feeling of not completing tasks. I am developing the system on stocks, long side first and am stuck at the portfolio selection task.

I also notice a deeper feeling just now of “not giving up on something.” I hate the idea of quitting or giving up or failure. I will not quit, I may get stuck and procrastinate, but I just do not give up, I really hate it.

This is interesting, I have trouble finishing tasks and I hate to give up or fail.

Now I will report the system progress, you can include it in FAQ if it is useful or leave it out:

The entry is at an exponential average cross or at a swing high break, both work well. I use an ATR type MM stop and a parabolic like trailing exit. Both exits work well. Adds happen twice, the first one is close to the original entry and less profitable, the 2nd add is further along the trend price wise and much better profit wise. I think the 2nd add works better because the trend is in the no-doubt phase. Scaling out did not test better than my Trail. For sizing, I develop a program to allow simulations of all sorts, and I mean all sorts.

The net result of the size exploration is that my risk level on individual positions can increase, but my portfolio heat needs to decrease.

As I work on the system I have an AHA; Pre-TTP my ideas about systems is that they need to predict what a stock or commodity will do with high accuracy.

The key is before TTP I felt the system should predict. Now I view my system as not trying to predict, it is just getting in if there is a trend and riding it. It is sort of saying, "I do not know what this trade will do, but if it trends I can and will ride it. If it does not, I have a plan to follow and will get out."

Prediction is very difficult,

especially if it's about

the future.

- Niels Bohr, Physicist (1885 - 1962)

A prediction is a statement or claim that a particular event will occur in the future.  Belief in the Causal Model supports making predictions; if you know the cause you may be able to predict the future effect.

In TTP, we hold the notion of an evolving moment of now and hold that future and past do not exist other than as medicinal concepts.

In TTP, we use the System Model - that acknowledges dynamic behavior as a result of system intention - that manifests as the components evolve and keep modifying their inter-relationships. 

In general, the behavior of any element does not trace to a single cause.  Rather, it appears as all the system components evolve together.  If one or more system components changes its Rock or "transfer function,"  the entire system behavior may evolve differently.

The TTP Rocks process can provide a way for people to change their deep, automatic, emotional response patterns - thereby changing the behavior mode of the entire system.

For very simple systems, such as a bucket with water draining out through a hole in the bottom - that generates a type of exponentially decaying flow rate, or such as a pendulum - that generates oscillation with damping, we can build fairly good simulation models that "predict" the behavior.

For systems that are rich enough to include the prices of trading instruments, the complexity of the system typically far exceeds the skill and computational expertise of model builders.

In this case, the only computer that can accurately simulate the evolving price is the world itself, as it generates this "solution" in real-time.  One good way to tap into this, the one-and-only solution, is by measuring price and by riding trends.

In TTP, we do not predict things in the sense of creating an image of the future, such as a specific price objective, and then attempt to act on it with, say, limit orders.  We hold policies, such as "Ride Your Winners," "Cut Your Losses," and "Use Stops" to deal with the evolving moment of now.

If you hold two apparently conflicting views, such as <I follow the trend> and <I predict the future> you may find yourself medicating the conflict by jumping your system. 

You might consider taking your feelings and notions to Tribe, or in your case, to the Workshop, and reconciling any conflicts with the TTP Polarity Process.

People Who Hold the Causal Model

typically believe in wizards

who can predict the future.

The current state

of the art of prediction

is such that our wisest wizards

cannot seem to agree

about whether

the world is heating up

or cooling off.

A very simple simulation model

of wizards at work

might show a mode

in which the wizards

bias their predictions

to favor their chances

of receiving more grant money.

Clip: http://www.thegeofactor.com/2006/12/

Fri, 11 Apr 2008

Reality, Science and Time
 

Ed,

Thank you for answering my recent "science" type questions, you are helping me to find and organize places for these concepts in my mind.

My interest in trading began roughly at age 14, I am currently 25 and I find it wonderful how my initial passion and interest in trading leads me on the path to truth about larger and more encompassing systems in the real world and discovering all their interconnections.

You might consider taking your feelings about <wanting to figure it out> To Tribe.

When you metaform that feeling from an adversary to an ally, things may fit into place rather automatically.

Then, of course, you can try to figure out how that little trick works.

Fri, 11 Apr 2008

Blogs Feature The Whipsaw Song

Ed,

I  notice many blogs are featuring the Whipsaw Song.

http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/

showthread.php?threadid=124413

http://investmenttools.blogspot.com/

2008/04/ed-seykota-and-whipsaw-song.html

http://www.1440wallstreet.com/index.php/

site/comments/ed_seykotas_whipsaw_song/

http://jackryanbauer.jaiku.com/presence/31487997

http://boulderisstoopid.blogspot.com/

2008/04/whipsaw-song.html

http://www.pro-at.com/forums-bourse/

bourse-Analyse-Technique-Autres-sujets-

The-Whipsaw-song-par-Ed-Seykota-1-27032.html

http://breakanhour.wordpress.com/2008/

04/10/trend-followers-song/

http://ip204.blogspot.com/2008/04/

whipsaw-song.html

http://www.daytrading.de/blog/2008/04/

Fri, 11 Apr 2008

Workshop Application

Ed,

Fri, 11 Apr 2008

Wants Matching Cover

Ed,

I enjoyed the whipsaw song, and the best part was the happy countenance you expressed throughout the song.

I also enjoyed the contents of the Trading Tribe book. The book itself though was a little inexpensively produced.

The Trading Tribe is a hard-back with sewn-in signatures. The cover carries the (TT) logo in gold embossing. The dust jacket is four color.

You might consider taking your feelings about  <things that don't match> to Tribe.

Even in Matches

sometimes things don't match evenly.

Clip: http://www.dribbleglass.com/

Wed, 11 Apr 2008

Animals and Time

Ed,

It seems animals not aware of the illusion of time.

article: http://www.medicalnewstoday.com/

Wed, 11 Apr 2008

Next Book

Ed,

I am not predicting a completion date. 

Wed, 11 Apr 2008

Magazine Covers
 

Ed,

I see corn in the news.

Wed, 11 Apr 2008

Sex and Trading

Ed,

Sexual arousal seems to arouse propensity for risk taking.

article:  http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/23961406/

wid/11915773?GT1=38001

Wed, 11 Apr 2008

Asking Why

Ed,

This is what I understand about science, scientists make a guess as to WHY a certain phenomenon occurs AKA a hypothesis and try to prove it through empirical data.

I am attempting to integrate the method of science (the scientific method) with TTP. Since you are an engineer yourself, your insight in this regard may help me.

My "guess" about the difference about science and TTP is that there really is no difference at all; scientists are not really asking WHY at all or even discovering reasons for anything, they are simply uncovering "how" a certain phenomenon occurs/behaves.

It seems that nobody can ever ultimately figure out WHY the universe follows certain physical laws (eg. thermodynamics, quantum mechanics etc.).

Why is useful in various ways:

1. To assert dominance:

Why are you late?

2. To assign blame (causal model):

Why are the cookies missing?

3. To question judgment:

Why are you leaving me?

4. To Justify Expansion

Oil Companies are the Reason.

We need more regulations.

Why is relatively useless in understanding dynamics as the best dynamic models view systems of simultaneously evolving interactions.

Why is a creature of the causal model which typically considers one cause and one effect.

The Causal Model

Useful for Interpersonal Control.

The System Model

Useful for Understanding.

Wed, 11 Apr 2008

Leverage -  Comic Video

Wed, 11 Apr 2008

Exponential Lag System / Phoenix System

Hi Ed,

I complete the 150/15 Exponential Lag Project in Excel. My numbers match yours! When I hunt and peck with the test variables, primarily Heat / Fast / Slow, and I notice the longer term variables produce large ending equity balances.

For example, I end up with over 1 billion with a 15% heat and a 1 ATR. It also creates a 90% DD through the 1987-1988 period. Do you notice similar results?

I call a high-heat system with a 90% drawdown and an eventual profit a Phoenix System - since it tends to re-emerge out of its own ashes.

For a margin proxy, you might try using a fraction of volatility.

The Phoenix

periodically re-emerges

from its own ashes.

Wed, 11 Apr 2008

High Frequency Trading and Commission Costs

Hi Ed,

I have attached a word document that attempts to answer the questions you posted regarding "High Frequency Trading and Commission Costs".

Back Test Challenge – Document created on 3/29/2008

(1) Demonstrate an automatic trading system that generates high frequency trading signals, where high frequency means the trades have duration of a couple weeks or less.

System Summary

Approach Type
Long only

Trade Signals
Buy and sell signals are automatically generated by my trading system program logic.

Trade Signals are system generated after the market close. Trade signals are automatically emailed to my email address by 6:00 pm. I enter the orders that evening. Trades are executed on the open the next trading day after the signal is issued. This applies to both entry and exit signals.

Executions
For this back test simulation the entry price is set to half way between the open and high. The exit price is set to half way between the open and low. Commissions are excluded

Position Sizing
For this back test simulation the system will trade 1 stock per day maximum and allow 5 open positions maximum

Output
The output lists three back test trade logs in TXT format; 2002 thru 2004; 2004 thru 2006; 2006 thru 2008.

Starting equity for each back test is set to $100,000. Scroll to the bottom for ending equity.


Backtest 2002 to 2004
There were 77 total stocks entered.
Annualized Return on Investment (ROI): 585.76%.

Backtest 2004 to 2006

There were 56 total stocks entered.

Annualized Return on Investment (ROI): 313.15%.

Backtest 2006 to 2008
There were 66 total stocks entered.

Annualized Return on Investment (ROI): 360.33%


(2) Show a track record of actual trades on brokerage house statements that match the signals in (1).
(3) Achieve near zero variation between (1) and (2) for a period of three contiguous months.

Track Record
The attached spreadsheet lists my system back test signals along side their associated actual trades. The Variances have been both positive and negative. The cause has been a few mistakes; a few pre-emptive exits; system modification; entering limit orders vs market orders.

Actual Trade Transaction History and Year to Date Sales

Hmmm... As I look through your materials, I do not see a list of all signals the computer generates.  I do not see brokerage statements.

I wonder how your "high frequency" computer system manages to generate only about 65 trades per year out of all those stocks.

Remember, the challenge is to (1) show a computer back-test  of high frequency trades (2) show your actual brokerage statements and (3) demonstrate a match-up.

Thu, 10 Apr 2008

Deflation - Comic Video Clip

Ed,

Deflation may have a positive intention.

Thu, 10 Apr 2008

Wants to Publish System

Please find a new version of the Support and Resistance System (I would like to post to the TSP site). I'm available at your convenience to discuss any changes.

Overview

In this trading system, we build on the previous module “A Simple Trading System: Support and Resistance.” In this new system we add a new trading metric for exiting positions.

Instruments

The instruments in the portfolio are continuous contracts. This system test includes:
S&P 500
30 Year US Bonds
Soybeans
Copper
Eurodollar

Posture

The system issues orders to trade long and short positions. The posture types are long, short, or out.

Trading Signals

Metric values calculate after the system receives the open, high, low, and close prices at the end of the trading day. The system uses the new prices to update the values of the long-term trend, trade entry, and trade exit. The system takes 3 parameter values to calculate the trading metrics from the user. We refer to these parameter values as x, y, and z.

Long Term Trend

The system calculates a slow metric to determine the long-term trend. The long-term trend is up or down. The long-term trend is up if today’s high is greater than the highest-high of the previous x days. The long-term trend remains up until today’s low is less than lowest-low of the previous x days.

Trade Entry

The system calculates two medium metric values, a support value and a resistance value. These metric values determine when the system enters long positions and short positions. The value of the medium resistance is the highest-high of the previous y days. The value of the medium support is the lowest-low of the previous y days.

Trade Exit

The system also calculates two fast metric values, a support value and a resistance value. These metric values determine when the system exits long positions and short positions. The value of the fast resistance is the highest-high of the previous z days. The value of the fast support is the lowest-low of the previous z days.

Generating Signals

The system begins the simulation with no positions.

If the long-term trend is positive and today’s high exceeds the medium resistance value (highest-high of previous y days), the system generates an order to enter a long position. The order executes as a buy-stop on the open of the following trading day. The system also generates a protective sell-stop that is equal to the value of the fast support.

If the long-term trend is negative and today’s low is below the medium support value (lowest-low of previous y days), the system generates an order to enter a short position the following trading day. The order executes as a sell-stop on the open of the following trading day. The system also generates a protective buy-stop that is equal to the value of fast resistance.

Position Sizing

This system uses stop-specific position sizing.

When the system generates an order to enter a long position, the system also generates the position size. The position size is the number of contracts the system buys or sells. The system bases the position size on the total equity, the fixed-fraction bet size, and risk-per-lot.

Total Equity

The total equity is equal to the sum of cash and the open profit & loss on all positions.

Fixed-Fraction Bet Size

The fixed-fraction bet size is also known as the instrument heat. The instrument heat is a percentage which determines the individual instrument bet size. The instrument heat is an input by the user.


Risk-Per-Lot

For long positions, the system calculates the risk-per-lot as the difference between the buy-stop and the protective sell-stop. For short positions, the system calculates the risk-per-lot as the difference between the sell-stop and the protective buy-stop.

Contract Size

Good Start.

You might consider taking your feelings about precision to Tribe.

Here are some specific points to consider:

No definition for "new trading metric."

 

Ambiguity: you update 3 things:

Long Term Trend.

Trade Entry = an event.

Trade Exit = an event.

 

Unclear how to update an event.

 

Long Term Trend can be up or down only - no indication which state is the initial value at the start of he run.

 

The system now updates 5 things: One slow metric, two medium metrics and two fast metrics. 5 != 3.

 

Unlikely to be certain of execution on the open for a buy stop.

 

At "Output" we seem to be back to three metrics again.

 

Carelessness

has its rewards.

Clip: http://www.ice.org/index.php?display=

Thu, 10 Apr 2008

Whipsaw Song on CNBC

Thu, 10 Apr 2008

Downloads The Whipsaw Song
 

Ed,

I have downloaded the music file from your site so I will not need you to send me a CD or DVD. Thanks. I’ll now be able to enjoy your music on my IPOD and in my car.

By the way my wife and I watched your video together last night and we could see the happiness in your face as you performed. It’s nice to see someone enjoy themselves so much.

Thu, 10 Apr 2008

Wants a Booth

The Workshop does not endorse any particular products or services either directly or by implication by renting booths.

You might consider attending the Workshop as a participant and bringing along your concerns and goals about expanding your business.

Your Growth Rate

can be a function

of the type of fertilizer

you are spreading around.

Clip: http://www.growthstrategypartners.com/

Thu, 10 Apr 2008

Fighting the Tao

The result you get is the result you get.

In TTP we hold that intentions = results.

You might consider the taking your feelings about <fighting> to Tribe.

Yin and Yang

describe two interrelating aspects. 

You might see them as fighting or dancing.

Thu, 10 Apr 2008

Linking Tribes

Hi Edward:

Thu, 10 Apr 2008

Many Necks

You might like this. My reaction is, "Oh, my aching back!"
 

Clip: http://www.coolbuzz.org/entry/pro-electric-

quadruple-neck-instrument-with-guitar-

Thank you for the clip of the one-man-band instrument.

Thu, 10 Apr 2008

Comments on  The Whipsaw Song

Fantastic

Fantastic!
Thank you Ed!

 

Keeping the Rhythm

Congratulations to you and the other band members on the Whipsaw song Video! It is sincere, fun and very clearly a labor of love. And great music to beat!

You constantly urge us to clarify and simplify our thoughts, such that we could communicate to a child. The whipsaw song could just as well be titled " Trading for 6-yr olds".

I remember you playing it for us in Cambridge Workshop, July-06. I cherish our impromptu jamming session during one of the breaks, it is a moment of exhilaration and unbounded joyousness. To me, to know Ed Seykota the musician adds a personal dimension to Ed - the philosopher, trader and mentor. Its great that a preview of Ed the musician is now available to all.

My analogy for trading is the way I respond to music - to glide with markets and be one with it, soar with the highs and swoop with the sell-offs, and always keep the rhythm.

Thanks for being here, and for being who you are. Be well.

hmm hmm hmm, hmm hmm hmm -lala ...

hmm hmm hmm, hmm hmm hmm -LO ...

:-D ... as I shut down for the night and prepare to go home...
 

Classy

Dear Whipsaw-ologists,

Outstanding ! ! ! Great lyrics, great song, great pickin', great singin', and great advice. You Tube is finally starting to get some class.


 

Wants Lyrics on the Web

Very enjoyable ! Thanks Ed and all musicians. I learn the guitar version to play with you ! I wonder if you can put the song text on web. Thank you.

Completion

Congratulations on completing one of your snapshots! Its great work.
 

Realizing Snapshot

Congratulations on realizing your Snapshot – creating / producing / editing / making available to the world the Whipsaw Song. I believe it will be enjoyed by many. Great work!



Exponential

Hits double from last night to this morning. Simply exponential (aladocious) !

 

Face

Thank you for your support, comments and suggestions.

Thu, 10 Apr 2008

Thank you for the URL.

In response, I write the following letter:

Wed, 9 Apr 2008

White Hat Wants to Trade Links

Hello Mr. Seykota

My name is [Name], and I am contacting you regarding your site at:

http://www.seykota.com/tribe/

FAQ/2007_Feb/15/index.htm 

Thank you for your offer.

This site does not run ads to generate revenue or trade links to increase traffic. 

Links appear on this site to acknowledge content and do not require reciprocation.

See the intention for this site at Ground Rules, near the bottom.

Ed's ultimate intention for The Trading Tribe

and for TTP

is for people to experience it,

and for it to disappear

and become just another passing AHA.

Wed, 9 Apr 2008

Comments on  The Whipsaw Song

A Classic

Very cool ! an instant classic ! Good banjo !

Awesome

Your whipsaw song is awesome!

 

Discovers Bluegrass

 

Hi Ed,

I just finished viewing the highly entertaining YouTube' version of "The Whipsaw Song".
I can sum up with two words . . . . Absolutely Brilliant!

I now like all three kinds of music;
"Country" , "Western" AND "Bluegrass."

Too Good

Way too good! Incredible :)

Agrees with Chorus

Thank you for the song. I'm still smiling, as I type these words.

I agree with all the words, especially the chorus: One good trend pays for 'em all.

 

Nice Surprise