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May 1 - 31, 2006
<==
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Questions
(Quotes
from Ed in Red)
|
Answers |
|
Mon, 29 May
2006
No
Separation
In the FAQ (Re: Oldies, 4/10/05), Ed says, "On some level, we know the
feelings of all our brothers and sisters, ultimately of all life on the
planet. Unwillingness to experience this knowledge is necessary to
preserve the illusion of separation."
Can you tell me more about it? You mean you know on some level you know
how I feel? Really? How? There is no separation between you and me?
(Apparently I'm still living under the illusion so I appreciate if you
can help me see through the illusion, thanks.) |
To help you see through it, I
can first see, with you, that there is no way to see through it.

When You Experience Something
Fully and Joyously
it disappears
Clip:
http://www.chairforce.com/downloads/
backs/brick-wall.jpg |
|
Mon, 29 May
2006
Living
Below Means
Hi Ed,
In the FAQ of 3/26/05 (How to stay alive), you answer to "live below
means." Can you elaborate on the "live below means" part? Does it mean a
frugal and ascetic life?
I gather that it includes "Stop buying so much crap" (FAQ 7/19/04,
Donchian). My main curiosity lies in the "BELOW means" instead of "live
where your finance allows you." |
Living well, below your means means,
well, living well below your means.
You might consider taking your
feeling about having a little extra in reserve to your Tribe.

Financial Reserves
are like a happy cushion ...
useful in absorbing
some of the bumps in the road.
Clip:
www.gifty-bts.com |
|
Sun, 28 May
2006
Causality
Dear Sir,
From your answers in the FAQ of 3/20/05, you say:
Anger in a k-not leads to depression.
Disabling the emotional function and trying to make decisions
intellectually leads to drama
Doesn't the term "leads to" imply causality?
Thanks. |
Thank you for the catch.
More precisely, k-nots tend to
entrain drama.
A system thinker says: "A banjo
string of a certain gauge, tension and length entrains a note of a
certain pitch."
A causal thinker says: "Picking the
string causes it to sound.

The Banjo
provides plenty of opportunities
for description
by system and causal thinkers.
Clip:
http://www.saletime.net/banjo3.jpg |
|
Sun, 28 May
2006
Optimization?
Hi Seykota,
I am an 18 year old forex trader from Denmark, I have spent the last two
years developing a system that trades the EUR/USD spot market. I have
tested it on wealth-lab using the last 20 years of data of data, and
have achieved great results.
It is quite a
simple trend following system, with a slight contrarian twist. Its
robust enough so that even though it is designed for EUR/USD it also
back tests profitably on the 30 DOW stocks.
Money
management strategy is simple anti-martingale risk constant % per
position. The exit consists of a trailing ATR stop. In Wealth-Lab as you
know it is amazingly easy to optimize variables to achieve a system that
would trade amazingly well in the past, but how should one go about
choosing a value for this variable, if robust long term performance is
the goal?
I have tried
running a test between the values of 0.1ATR to 5.0ATR trailing stop and
I get a bell curve, with the top of the curve being around the area of
3ATR +- 0.5. I had considered implementing a strategy where I at the end
of every year would run a similar simulation and then choose the value
for my trailing ATR stop that is in the middle of the bell curve, not
necessarily the value with the highest profit, just the one in the
centre, as this should be the value that is most likely to also be
profitable for next year, right?
I expect that
this bell curve will likely move around a little every year, therefore
choosing the value in the middle wouldn't this maximize the likelihood
of my system staying in the money? My goal is a system with robust long
term performance of 40% a year and drawdowns of no more than 20%, Is
this too close to curve fitting or am I on the right track?
There is not much on the net about optimization, except blatant
statements like, its the holy grail or its bad! Just bought Lebeau's
book "Technical traders guide to computer analysis of the futures
market", Michael Covel's book "Trend Following" and Perry Kaufmanns book
"Smarter trading", in the hope that they might also provide me with some
insight into this area of system design, Amazon is however taking ages
to deliver to little Denmark! :)
I have found it very difficult to find valuable information on exits and
optimization, except a little form Van Tharp. After reading your
interview in the Market Wizards a few years ago, you have been a great
inspiration in my personal journey towards successful trading and I
would greatly appreciate if you could help me answer some of these
questions. Look forward to hearing from you!
|
In Emotional Trading, you try to
figure it all out, and then take a position to find out if you are right
(or wrong).
In Mechanical Trading, you come up
with a method and then mechanically apply the method to many situations.
Mechanical Trader simply (or not so
simply) follows his system, without concern about individual trades
having to be right or wrong.
You seem to bring an emotional need
to be right to your mechanical trading.
You might consider taking your
feelings about wanting to be right to your Tribe as points of entry.

In The Terminal Stages
caregivers need to know
as much about the process of dying
as about the individual patient.
Clip:
http://www.npvna.org/images/
Hospice%20web%20page.jpg |
|
Sat, 27 May
2006
W = 246
My weight this morning was 246 lbs
|
See W = 245,
below. |
|
Sat, 27 May
2006
Tribe in
Singapore ?
Dear Trading Tribe,
I came across your website by accident. On reading the site, I found it
a very thoughtful experiment and would like to know some more.
I work in Singapore and trading has been my part-time pursuit. I found,
however, no trading tribe community in Singapore. Any advice ? |
See: Tribe Directory, above |
|
Fri, 26 May
2006
TTP in the
Workplace
Ed,
I use TTP in our company, and even have company Tribe Meetings.
This is a message that one of my employees sent me today.
[Dear Boss],
Thank you for getting the tribe going at our company. I feel much more
grounded as an employee because of it. In addition it has helped me to
further clarify my path in life.
Thank you for being in my life, I feel blessed to count you as a friend. |
Thank you for sharing your process.
|
|
Fri, 26 May
2006
Intention =
Home
Ed
My wife and I purchased our home on the beach today which was part of my
“snapshot” at the May 2005 workshop and our joint snapshots at the Jan
2005 workshop. We are still enjoying the process of achieving the
other part of our snapshot but still no babies as yet.
We are doing your Trading System Project at the moment and noticed what
we think is an error in the gold data on the 22 June 1993. According to
our work it generates a trade in the support and resistance system
resulting in a loss.


|
Thank you for sharing your process.
Congratulations on manifesting your
snapshot.
Thank you for the catch. |
|
Thu, 25 May
2006
Can't Let
Go
Dear Ed,
I write to report my hotseat. I get on the hot seat with a problem of
accumulating and keeping assignments, work, and to dos. Things
accumulate and I and others are frustrated.
I start my hotseat and as an avalanche, it all comes down and out. A
revelation! If I keep the work undone, it's mine. If I do the work, I
return it and it is no longer mine. I get the point.
I'm very grateful for the work you do and that you give it to me. Thank
you. And I enjoy reading the FAQ's. |
Thank you for sharing your process.

Letting Go of What You Are
is a step
toward becoming something else
Clip:
http://www.tattooheaven.com/currentPaint.html
|
|
Thu, 25 May
2006
Where to
Begin
Dear Ed,
For the last 6 months I have been behaving irrationally, listening to
white noise and using my gut to make money.
Yes, you guessed it, I in fact lost money. I have been hugely up with no
idea when the peak would come and often bought all the way down saying
the peak will return. Then promised myself not to do that again, only to
find myself doing it again.
I have now decided that I am still young, early 20's, and thus my mind
needs to be fed.
So my question to you is, where do I begin? I have happened, by chance,
onto Turtle Traders, then yourself.
I am reading Trend Followers at the moment and I feel that I am more
suited to the technical side of the markets as I believe fundamentals
are rubbish in most cases, just people behaving on mass to data which
shouldn't have the impact that it does.
Why do I feel this, because I
was one of them. Trained economist who thinks everything must have
reason economically and thus an impact.
I have seen though, by market watching, that this doesn’t need to be so.
Ed, where do I begin? What do I need to do first in my journey to
becoming a good successful trader? How do I create a trading system? I
realize it may take time and at the moment all I want is some guidance.
A mentor. I choose you to help me please.
I am ready, hungry, ambitious and keen to succeed and to feed my mind
the right way with the right knowledge.
There are so many books, courses, websites out there, but I keep coming
back to you!
Please can you be of assistance to me?
Thanks in advance
|
You are taking the first
step. You might consider taking your feeling of not knowing where
to go from here to your Tribe as an entry point.

Crossroads
can be indecisive stopping points
or opportunities
Clip:
http://www.antonshevchenko.com/
favorites.html |
|
Thu, 25 May
2006
Catch
http://www.seykota.com/tribe/TSP/EA/index.htm
The Position_Size, then, is 100,000 / 15.575 = 6430.5 + and rounding to
the nearest 250, we get 6500 units.
100,000 / 15.575 = 6420.5, not 6430.5
Thanks |
Good catch. |
|
Thu, 25 May
Possible Catch
Hi
I fear I’m missing something crucial here but in the example used below
should the ‘lag’s on the right of side of the equation be Lag-1 or the
previous lag?
It kind of stumped be for a bit and guess that is what it should be as
if you knew what Lag equaled, which you must by inserting it in the
values in the right hand side, then you wouldn’t need the formula.
I am really struggling with the Math for all this which surprises me as
it was one of my stronger subjects at school.
I guess it’s easy to neglect personal development for a time when you
leave education.
All the best
http://www.seykota.com/tribe/TSP/Trends/index.htm
5. Update the Lag:
To update the lag, use:
Lag = Lag + (Currrent_Close - Lag) / Time_Constant
= Lag
= $10 + ($20 - $10) / 5 days
= $12
|
Yes, per some forms of
notation,
Lag[t] = f(Lag[t-1]).
Popular compilers such as
Basic and C use notation without the subscripts. |
|
Wed, 24 May
2006
Pounding Out the Fear
At my Tribe Meeting, I get into my form of anger and keep
pounding a pillow with my fists.
At the zero point I get an idea
that I am really not that angry.
I am mostly afraid and sad and I
am using anger as a way to not have to feel what is really going on.
|
Thank you for sharing your process.

When You Fully Experience a Form
it disappears
and may reveal something underneath.
Clip:
http://www.lingerie-uk.tv/acatalog/
BODACIOUS_Catalogue_Accessories_19.html |
|
Wed, 24 May
2006
Borderline: A Fractal Poem
Dear Mr. Seykota,
Our son is working on his PHD in Mathematics from the State University
of New York at Albany.
When he was taking Masters Courses at SUNY
Cortland, he took a class in the Chaos Theory. He showed me the textbook
that they were using and I noticed how interesting the designs of the
fractals were.
I am a quilter and I would like to make a fractal quilt
as a graduation present for our son when he gets his PHD.
I came across your poem while I was looking at pictures
of fractals (See: Resources, above). I was wondering
if I could have your permission to put a copy of the poem on the back of
the quilt when it is finished. I found it informative (as much as my
non-higher Math mind could get around it) and very entertaining. I would
make sure that your name and the name of your company is included.
Thank you for your consideration. |
Yes, Go ahead.
I wonder how much thread you
plan to use in tracing around the (infinitely long) fractal shapes.
You might send me a photo of your
quilt. |
|
Tue, 23 May
2006
Magazine
Cover
Ed,
I have just become aware of this now. You may already be aware of this
magazine cover.
On another note, I have a few clients adding to their
accounts and a few new accounts opening. I also have one client that cut
his account in half at the bottom. I am not sure what to make of it. It
looks like confusion to me.
|
See
Market Top,
below. |
|
Tue, 23 May 2006
Marketing by Intention
Variance Reports and the Under Fred Network
Recently I am acting as the prototype for the Trading Tribe Growth
Engine, wherein reporting
and system trades will be more transparent. Since making that agreement,
two clients have called
to say they have a sudden interest in watching the trades in their
accounts more closely, and would
like to monitor them. |
Thank you for sharing your process. |
|
Tue, 23 May
2006
Intention Operates at a Distance
Ed!
Incline Village Trading Tribe Hot Seat
I take the hot seat with a feeling of pain in my left side. The story
has to do with keeping agreements,
keeping one's word, both mine to others and others to me.
This is
triggered by an engineer who is
doing a project for me doesn't do what he agrees to, nor does he call
when he says he will.
I go through
layers of sadness, frustration, anger, and see new insights into when I
haven't kept agreements, and how
Fred has caused me to choose people who act the same way, in an attempt
to resolve the repressed
feelings created by 'not keeping agreements'.
The next day after the Tribe meeting, the engineer gives me a call to
update me on the project. |
Thank you for sharing your process.

When You Align with Under Fred
the world behaves
as if you hold the remote control.
Clip:
http://www.hardware-one.com/reviews/
audigyplatinum-ex/remote-1-big.jpg
|
|
Tue, 23 May
2006
Global Sell
Off
Dear Ed
re: the "Global sell off" all over my newspaper these last few days.
I am right in asserting the following:
* the long term trend is up
* until I know otherwise (i.e. an extended period of downwards trading)
this still remains true.
Many thanks |
There is no such thing as the trend. Some of the shorter
indicators are down while some of the longer ones are still up.
At some point in the
non-existing future, we might look back into the non-existing past (now)
and notice the exact numerical values of all the various trends that we cannot now
measure. |
|
Sun, 21 May
2006
Puzzles
Hi Ed,
I hope all is well at Lake Tahoe! I just received the Google Puzzle
Competition starting 6-17-06. Here is the link you may get a job at
Google if you do well!!!
Shortcut to: http://wpc.puzzles.com/practice/index.htm
We can compare answers for the real one if you like ... might not be many
people I can get excited about ... but I know you love them ...
Greetings |
Thank you for the heads-up. |
|
Fri, 19 May
2006
Partial
Resolution
Ed,
At our last tribe meeting several hotseat issues are similar. The
snapshot process uncovers problems related to following through on
commitments for several of us, myself included. The first hotseat
produces feelings in me, as a receiver with similar issues, of
uneasiness centered in my chest and upper abdomen.
I go second, and quickly begin to wretch and vomit …oh well, it seems to
happen to everyone sooner or later. There seems to be something in there
that wants to come out; so I let it. Go with the flow, so to speak.
After a relatively short but violent experience, I reach the zero point.
While not experiencing any great AHA’s, I have the feeling that my issue
is related to my lack of awareness. Several days since the hotseat and I
am still not clear on these feelings. I sense the issue is important for
me, and unresolved. I intend to work on this again. |
Thank you for sharing your process.

Until You Can Do Your Form With Joy
there is more to do.
Clip:
http://www.tangento.net/zappa3.html |
|
Sat, 20 May
2006
Overtrading
Dear Ed,
My trading is getting a little better but I am still overtrading due to
not having a job. I am trying to make myself a salary every week with
trading and I am mostly spinning my wheels.
My friend made a little program for me that keeps me in tune with what
stocks are trending up and down and it is very helpful. The commodities
program will be next!
I hope things are well with you.
Thanks for the stock and commodities charts on your website. They are
very helpful. |
Trading is no substitute to
the steady income of a steady job.
You might consider taking your feelings of not having
enough money to your Tribe.

Overtrading Tends to Accompany Pressure
Sometimes,
experiencing the positive intention of pressure
can relieve the urge to over trade.
Clip:
http://kids.earth.nasa.gov/archive/air_pressure/ |
|
Fri, 19 May
2006
Test
Dear Ed.
Do you copy ? |
C-O-P-Y |
|
Fri, 19 May
2006
Update for
Tribe
Dear Mr. Seykota:
I hope you are well. I know you are extremely busy, however please
kindly update the [Name] Tribe Directory to 2 committed member
instead of 1. I thank you for your cooperation and
attention on this matter.
Sincerely, |
To update your listing, submit a new
TID. |
|
Fri, 19 May
2006
W = 245
My weight this morning was 245 lbs |
See Weight Up,
below. |
|
Fri, 19 May
2006
Buying on
Strength
Hi Ed !
One of the few strong ones this morning
ELN,
a biotech. I bought the breakout 5/16 at 17.14 |
If you want report a buy to FAQ, be
sure and follow up with the sell. |
|
Thu, 18 May
2006
Suspicious
Prices on Charts
Hi Ed,
I don't know if anyone has mentioned it to you already, but looking at
the currencies page , it seems that there are some suspicious prices
for the Norwegian Krone and Swedish Krona in Dec of 2005.
In general, how do you test data quality? Thanks.
ciao,
Charles |
My current Quality Control method seems to
include you.
Thank you for the catch.
I am rectifying the 12/20 migrating
decimal problem. |
|
Wed, 17 May
2006
Judging the Judge
Hi Ed,
I have an interesting IM chat with my wife in which I try to be as
non-judgmental about the content of what she is saying but just receive
her.
We just got married last month and my sister wrote us a check as our
wedding gift. I choose not to cash it but just keep it, but my wife
doesn't like the idea.
The following is definitely not our usual form of conversation. Most of
the time, I tend to explain to her my view and try to reach a
compromise.
Instead, this time I just try to actively receive. There are several
times I think about explaining my rationale, but I refrain myself from
doing that, but instead try this experiment.
I don't know how this is leading me to. It's very different and not how
I am accustomed to. However, I like the experiment and I look forward to
seeing how the dust settles. Thanks! |
Trying to be non-judgmental
presupposes a judgment about being judgmental.
You might consider
validating your feelings about being judgmental.

The Positive Intention of A Judge
is to judge.
Clip:
http://www.larochecreative.com/compositing.htm
|
|
Wed, 17 May
2006
Strong Trends
Hi Dr. Ed -
I find the strongest trends using a service called Daily Graphs. They
have a custom screening database where you can target just the strongest
trends. I know there is a lot more to trading than just that. But check
it out. http://www.dailygraphs.com
regards, |
You can find
such trends on
the charts page above, for free. You can also apply to receive a page of
custom charts, also for free. |
|
Wed, 17 May
2006
Subtle Activities
In the Workshop page, Ed says, "A few activities, many of them subtle
and unconscious, determine success and happiness."
Can you please give some examples of those subtle and unconscious
activities that determine success and happiness? Thanks.
|
Breathing, smiling,
encouraging people. |
|
Wed, 17 May
2006
Fundamental
Flaw
LONDON (Reuters) - London metals gave up early gains and headed lower
on Wednesday on U.S. inflation fears, but investors resisted any
temptation to repeat Monday's heavy selling, dealers said.
It seems that causalists must have a reason even if the reason is
logically
inconsistent. |
Yes, all reasons are logically
inconsistent.
To see this for yourself, just keep
applying the causalist mantra, "why" to any reason, and to the endless
chain of supporting reasons.

If You Keep Applying "Why"
to a series of reasons
they all disappear
down an obscure hall of mirrors.
Clip:
http://home.earthlink.net/
~howlers/bryan/mirrors.jpg
|
|
Wed, 17 May
2006
Pssssttt ...
Dear Ed,
Please keep the following FAQ / Incline Village TT
update anonymous ...
[ ... ] |
OK - You might consider
taking your feelings of wanting to keep secrets to your tribe as entry points. |
|
Wed, 17 May
2006
TSP: Diversification study
Dear Ed,
please can you post links to the price data files you used in the
diversification study (copper and oil). I want to do the calculations
using my back testing program and to verify I get the same results as
you.
Have a good time in Cambridge and please take a look in at my old
college - Trinity. The library and chapel provide inspiration. Also you
might want to arrange to meet Dr [Name] who was
my fluid mechanics tutor and has mastery of his subject.
|
I am revising the format for TSP to
coordinate it with the new Chart Server pages, above, at charts.
Yes, I'd like to meet with your
professor. |
|
Tue, 16 May
2006
Buying a
Car at the Top
Hi Ed,
Our trading goes wonderfully. My car continues to break/end up in the
shop. I consider getting a new car for months.
I feel as though I cannot
go ahead and buy a new car, because our trading cannot continue to go as
wonderfully as it is, and I will buy a new car "at the top" and then
regret my decision ( I am notoriously frugal-there are those that call
me cheap, but I hate to use equity for anything but trading).
As we make
a new equity high on 5/11, I decide to go ahead and buy myself a new
car. I pick up the car 5/13. On 5/15 we suffer our worst one day loss
since the inception of our current trading program.
What gives?
Yours,
|
What gives is some cute
evidence that intentions, such as to buying a car at the top, keep
manifesting.
To break this cycle, you
might consider taking your feelings to your Tribe as an entry point.
One positive intention of your
feelings of "wanting to buy" might be to
inform about the "wanting to buy" that a lot of people feel near the tops.
Under Fred helps everybody
coordinate.

A New Car Can Sometimes Give You
a feeling of being on top.
Clip:
http://www.monte.plus.com/harvey/
75%20-%20New%20Car.jpg |
|
Mon, 15 May
2006
ePsychology
America's therapists get hung up over boom
in internet and instant message counseling
Source: www.telegraph.co.uk
http://tinyurl.com/lqgbs
America's therapists get hung up over boom in internet and instant
message counselling
By Philip Sherwell
(Filed: 07/05/2006)
It was perhaps inevitable, in the era of constant
communication by email, text and instant messaging, that technology
would catch up with
another of modern America's obsessions.
Therapy-addicted Americans are used to paying up
to $200 (£110) for a face-to-face session with an
analyst who will, if they are lucky, dispense advice on how to improve
their lives.
Now the stressed, depressed, angry and lovelorn
are turning, in increasing numbers, to therapy
on-line - where, for a dollar a minute, and with
their anonymity guaranteed, they can seek answers
to their deepest problems.
But so sharp is the growth in internet counseling
that some therapists are becoming alarmed.
Paul Applaud, the former head of the American
Psychiatric Association, said that there were
dangers in relaying instant advice to patients
whom the counselor has never met, and cannot see.
"Even instant messages can be tidied up before
they are sent, so you don't know if you are getting the patient's real
feelings," he said.
"The issue of licensing and regulation is also
very troubling. How do you know who's on the other
end of the line? Is it a licensed therapist or some high school
graduate? I'm sure some companies
make proper checks, but as the sector expands so
do the dangers."
Web counseling companies such as MyTherapy.Net and HelpHorizons.com say
that they provide a valuable service to people too busy or nervous to
visit a therapist in person.
Most services use the instant messaging (IM)
technique, which leaves no trace and so cannot be
subject to a court order, and allows therapists
and patients to hold a "live" on-line exchange.
There are no figures for how many people seek
keyboard counseling, but the number of providers
is rising. MyTherapyNet has seen an increase in
monthly users from fewer than 500 a year ago to
almost 10 times that figure now.
"We have had a lot of professional naysayers but
I'm confident that we've proved our value," said
Greg Palumbo, the company president.
Yet even some therapists who dispense cyber-counseling admit to
concerns about the absence of personal contact.
"For all I know, the patient who sounds quite balanced and normal in his
messages might be
bouncing around the apartment in a chicken suit
making squawking noises," said Dr Richard Sansbury, a Maryland
psychiatrist, who says that he conducts a third of his counseling
on-line.
"I see a role for on-line therapy, particularly
for people who wouldn't normally visit a therapist
in person, but you cannot just transfer traditional psychotherapy lock,
stock and barrel into cyberspace. I'll offer advice on how to handle
things but I won't give a diagnosis."
The e-therapy industry agrees that IM is not
appropriate for treating suicidal tendencies, and
drugs cannot be prescribed on-line for anyone whom
the therapist has not met.
Costs vary. MyTherapyNet - which has 1,000 experts
on its books, from marriage counsellors to life coaches - charges $1.60
a minute for its "e-mmediate" service. At HelpHorizons.com, 30-minute
packages start at $30; while eGetGoing
offers three-month, 12-step drug and alcohol
treatments for $1,200.
Mr. Palumbo said that for some patients, the
written word worked better than face-to-face conversation. "A lot of
people feel more comfortable discussing issues that way, and can
get right to the core of things," he said. "Depression and stress
are very treatable
on-line." |
The market has an uncanny way
of sorting these kinds of things out.
Perhaps some of the
therapists who are feeling fear about losing their couch customers can
sign up with an ePsych therapist for some counseling.
|
|
Mon, 15 May
2006
Toxic Parents
& Causality
Hi Ed,
From your book list, I buy Toxic Parents and I enjoy reading it. I am
shocked to see the immense impact a parent can do to the children's
lives, to the point where the influence still exists even when the child
is 50-years-old, and it never dies even if the toxic parent is dead.
As I read, however, it sounds too much like the causality model. The
alcoholic/abusive/over-possessive parent is CAUSING the grown-up child
to behave the way they behave. Moreover, doesn't the word "toxic"
suggest judgment of some sort? So while the cause-and-effect makes a lot
of sense to me, and the parents' behavior (as the book describes) are
clearly "toxic" to me, I wonder if the systemic worldview or the
non-judgmental principle applies here. Thanks!! |
Worldview is something
you bring to the situation.
You can see toxic parents as
"causing" children to grow up with psychoses.
Alternatively, you can see toxic
parents conveying k-nots to children and noticing these k-nots tend to
entrain behavioral patterns.
The causal model is useful
for establishing linkages between otherwise non-interacting elements
(like one billiard ball striking another).
The system model is useful
for thinking about the evolving interactions between elements that feed
information back to each other.

In Billiards, the Best Players
consider how the balls
are likely to effect each other
many shots ahead.
Clip:
http://www.poolsharp.com/images/123_ball.gif
|
|
Mon, 15 May
2006
TSP study
Hello!
I like the development of the chart server and the mission statement.
You bet I'm ready to commit to it. As proof, I am posting my study on a
good system. I want to be part of this and ride the TT trend - this is
exiting, so count my humble me in if you may.
I trust you know what to do with the study. |
Thank you for your contribution. |
|
Mon, 15 May
2006
Programming/Back Testing
Dear Ed,
In my spare time I'm trying to develop a trend following system, so that
I can
improve my chances of becoming financially independent. I have a
question for
you, one that shouldn't break any of your rules.
I've seen programs out there that can help you back test a system, or
even
trade a system if you feed it the parameters.
I can't afford any that I've seen.
I want to take one or more computer programming courses this summer and
before
I graduate so that I may create a program that I can use to back test my
data
and eventually create my system.
In your opinion, what's a good computer programming language to learn?
Of
course, if this breaks the "I won't tell you what to do" rule, then I
understand, and I'll just take a couple of courses and do the best that
I can.
But there's no harm in asking huh? |
I wonder how you intend to
trade your way to financial independence if you do not have enough money
for a testing program.
You might consider taking
your feelings about not having enough money to your Tribe as entry points. |
|
Mon, 15 May
2006
Going in Circles
Dear Ed,
I have this experience when process managing. The sender is a beginner
and on her first hot seat:
S=Sender; PM=Process Manager
PM: I wonder how you're feeling right now.
S: I'm feeling pain in the back.
PM: Good, can you feel more of that pain?
S: No, I don't want to.
PM: OK, can you experience the "not wanting" part?
S: ...
S: I feel like I want to stretch.
PM: OK, then stretch as much as you can. Fully stretch!
(Sender tries some stretching)
S: I don't like that.
PM: OK, how does it like to "not like" it?
S: I don't know.
PM: Can you experience the "not knowing"?
S: ...
I feel like we're going in circle and the sender is trying to engage in
a dialogue rather than experiencing her feelings. So I try to check for
willingness:
S: I'm feeling pain in the back again.
PM: Are you willing to experience that pain?
S: No, I don't like it.
PM: How is it feel to "not like" it?
S: It feels like moving...I want to move my body.
PM: Can you keep moving and move even more? (Receivers also cheer her to
move)
(Sender tries to move)
We get a little bit out of it, but overall it seems we are applying
force in the wrong direction. As I recall your saying in FAQ 2/10/05,
"Application of force in any other direction, makes an object goes
around in circles," I wonder how I can better manage the process. On the
other hand, if the sender's path is a circular path, then to promote
flow, do I just keep pushing her in that circular path, just like the
bubble chamber particles in your picture? Thanks.
|
OK. Try this:
PM: I wonder how you're feeling right now.
S: I'm feeling pain in the back.
PM: Good, can you feel more of that pain?
S: No, I don't want to.
PM: So are you
willing to do TTP?
S: No, I don't
want to.
PM: OK, thank
you. So let's have a check out and then go to the next person.
|
|
Tue, 16 May
2006
Momentum and EMA's
Could you please explain how do you implement
momentum in your trading with Exponential Moving Averages?
Thanks a lot in advance! |
I don't implement momentum; I
notice it and align my trading with it. |
|
Mon, 15 May
2006
A Market Top, an Opportunity and/or Both
Hi Ed!
this, from an article ... (no citation yet)
Red hot commodities:
the traders who trade them
With markets like energy and metals surging and setting records, demand
has skyrocketed for experienced commodities traders. Citigroup said this
week that it expected to almost double it's trading staff and Credit
Suisse, Bear Stearns and Lehman Brothers are hiring as well. And with
huge demand, prices for traders have naturally surged....
The hottest commodity in the booming commodities markets would seem to
be the traders themselves.
So great is the scramble to strengthen once-neglected commodity trading
desks and so scarce is the top talent that experienced traders are now
commanding seven-figure sign-on fees and bonuses to match.
Industry executives said senior energy traders were receiving sign-on
fees of more than $2m (¤1.5m) in some cases. Two years ago sign-on fees
were unheard of in the energy market. Commodity traders were largely
unwanted during the 1990s and in the immediate aftermath of the Enron
collapse and banks trained few new staff in their commodity trading
divisions.
Now, the surge in energy and metals markets, which has seen gold and
silver touch fresh 25-year highs and copper reach an all-time high of
$8,825 a tonne, has forced banks to expand their commodity desks.
This week Citigroup said it planned to almost double its global
commodities trading staff, while Credit Suisse, Lehman Brothers and Bear
Stearns are among the latest banks to strengthen their trading teams.
Barclays Capital, JPMorgan, Deutsche Bank, Merrill Lynch, UBS, ABN Amro
and BNP Paribas have all been expanding their commodity trading
businesses.
Some of the recent large signings include Henrik Wareborn, who joined
Lehman Brothers from Hess Energy Trading, and Xiao Qin, an oil options
trader, who left Goldman Sachs for UBS.
"They [oil traders] have become some of the best paid people at the
banks today," said one recruitment executive.
The salary inflation is also pushing up staff costs for oil companies,
utilities and trading companies such as Glencore and Cargill, which all
have big energy trading businesses....
But it is not just the top traders reaping the benefits. Even less
experienced traders are commanding six-figure sign-on fees and
guaranteed bonuses for up to three years, according to industry
executives. Some are concerned that certain traders lack the necessary
experience and fear their appointment to key positions could increase
the risk of trades going wrong. "There is more potential for a blow-up
if you have someone that does not have experience to deal properly with
the risk a bank is taking on," said one analyst. |
Yes. See
Magazine Cover, below |
|
Sun, 14 May
2006
Gas Price War
Re : Mon, 24 Apr 2006 GAS WAR - An Idea That WILL Work
I pretty much agree with you here Ed, except for a couple of points -
Ed says :
1) Price is a reflection the interplay of many buyers and sellers. If
you successfully boycott one seller, that seller goes out of business.
2) This reduces competition. Other sellers soon experience a shortage
and / or raise prices.
3) So, in addition to hurting retail vendors, the boycott inconveniences
consumers and results in them having less choices and having to pay
more, not less for gasoline.
I say :
1) Agreed on "interplay". But anyone who seriously believes that the
president of Exxon will simply throw his hands in the air, exclaim "Oh,
NO!", close down the company and give up his exalted salary just because
of a boycott, please raise your hand now. :)
If I accept your Guarantee that Exxon will shut down, the rest of your
arguments follow, but I can't agree on that step. "Mergers" are what put
sellers out of business, not charging reasonable prices.
Exxon will not go out of business, that is not the consequence of a
boycott. Exxon will lower prices to re-capture business.
2) THIS (lowering prices) increases competition - other seller's
business will increase, making all of them more efficient & effective
competition in the marketplace.
3) Any temporary pain to retail vendors or customer inconvenience will
be rapidly righted by the natural flow of the markets. Except that now,
consumers are respected as part of the market equation and they pay less
for gasoline.
My other minor point of disagreement involves your "Populist party"
side-bar. In previous FAQ comments, you did an excellent job of
showing that primary political party activity is "trying to invalidate
the other party" as opposed to "saying/doing anything worthwhile".
But here, you take everyone who wants to act Now and place them in the
Populist party in the Past, and then you try to invalidate that "straw
man" party by claiming they want government intervention.
No government
intervention is required or requested by this E-mail - just action by
real people, and the power of publicity. Similar to the creation of an
independent America : Some colonials, annoyed with ever higher tea
prices, say "No taxation without representation" and dump some British
tea in the water. See how well it works? (And I bet that tea
prices are lower today, not higher.)
In any case, I received (& passed on) that E-mail myself weeks ago,
except there was no professor's name at the bottom. Just my favorite
scenario - Read it for Yourself, Decide for Yourself, Act on Your Own
Responsibility (no professorial or other influence). And I am not a
member of the Populist party or any other party.
I refer you to my favorite quote : "Running for political office should
be a capital offence." |
1. The seller I refer to is
the seller who feels the boycott most, namely the mom-and-pop service station
that administers the gasoline to your tank - not
the integrations above them in the supply chain.
2. I do not see how a price war increases competition.
Having more
competitors increases competition.
3. I see no relationship between "customer respect" and price.
Customer respect tends to increase as a function of service, again
reflecting the number of
competitors.
-----
While the chain letter does not request government intervention (which tends
to reduce competition) it does show the existence of the kind of
emotional k-nots the public has about rising prices.
Such k-nots
are easy targets for politicians who promise to rout out the "greedy
villains" and get prices back down.
More likely, inflation reflects an
expansion in national debt as is consistent with the age of our
country.
You might like to keep watch over
the upcoming political season - and notice how politicians from all major parties pitch the
populist line to angry voters.
One of the functions for the party in power is to take the credit and/or
the blame for events over which they have little control.
You might consider taking your feelings about Exxon to your tribe as an
entry point.

Politicians are Willing
to blame almost anyone / anything
for inflation
except their own unwillingness
to stop spending.
Clip:
http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock/faq.html
|
|
Fri, 12 May
2006
Chart
Server
Hello Ed,
I have a contribution to make to the TT chart server. The contribution
is
the attached jpeg in this email. The jpeg is the Euro.

Euro
|
Thank you for the catch. |
|
Sat, 13 May
2006
Frustration
What is the positive intention of frustration? |
Frustration indicates blockage along
your path.
Its positive intention is to inform
you to remove the blockage, find another path, abandon the goal, etc.
Frustration in a k-not tends to
entrain blockages in all your paths.

The Positive Intention of Frustration
is to apply a tool to remove the blockage.
When frustration is in a k-not
you entrain blocks everywhere
and your life fills up with
whatever.
Clip:
http://img.epinions.com/images/opti/
d4/fd/Chicago_Specialty_Li_l_Rose_Toilet_Plunger_
Shop_Tools-resized200.jpg |
|
Sat, 13 May
2006
Weight Up
My weight this morning was 250 lbs
This was a very unproductive week of overeating and a lack of exercise.
I commit to eating right and exercising for the next seven days. |
Your aversion to doing the work
seems to be paying off for you.
See Weight
Loss, below. |
|
Fri, 12 May
2006
Magazine Cover
Ed,
For what its worth, I got this cover in the mail two days ago. (May 10).
Congratulations on hitting the ball out of the park in commodities land.
A macro cycle repeats for you.
I like to come for a pollinator session sometime in the next few months.
My Tribe goes well. I miss IV TTP.
I manage $10M now and enjoy the process.
Best,

|
Thank you for the heads-up on the
cover.
Hmmm ... The cover seems to be doing
a better job of calling the top than the pros. See
copper chart, below. |
|
Fri, 12 May
2006
New Tribe
in China
Dear Ed,
My intention is to feel my feelings and support
others.
I intend to start a new Tribe in Tianjin of China.
I study English listening everyday, because your
Workshop is no audio-visual equipment. |
Send a TID to FAQ, per the
instructions at Tribe Directory, above. |
|
Thu, 11 May 2006
Social
Infants
I believe that people who say they don't have anything to work in a hot
seat
are selfish cowards. If they can't find an uncomfortable feeling within
themselves, maybe they can find one associated with the injustice and
inhumanity
experienced around the world. When I'm willing to feel, I step up to the
plate and
grow. DIM is for social infants.
I know ... I'm on my way to a tribe meeting. |
You might consider working on your
feelings about other people. |
|
Thu, 11
May 2006
Snapshot Follow Up
Dear Mr. Seykota:
Enclosed is the follow up for my snapshot for 4/27/06. The Microsoft
word format have all the details. Once again I thank you for the
opportunity to attend your Tribe it was a life time experience for me.
1. Right livelihood: Snapshot: # Keep my position in the major trend and
follow proper position sizing.
Summary: Basically after the meeting. Excitement took
over the trades. Accts is up so far this month. I feel I need more
clear definition in my trading strategy and more consistency and
convincing result.
2.Body: Snapshot: # My chest stick out further than my stomach.
Summary: I feel very good about my progress. I feel
great in terms of my body, however I know there is still big belly so
I’m going to keep working hard.
3. Relationship: Snapshot: # Take a girl out on a date.
Summary:
I’ve approached two women; one was referral and one on my own. One never answers and
the other is busy moving house right now so she said in about two weeks.
I
also had one girl I met one month a go called me all the sudden on
Tuesday but I wasn’t attracted to her so I did not go out with her.
4. Fun - Snapshots: Buy expensive electric piano player and start
practicing.
Summary: I feel I want to be more successful in other
areas of snapshots before I buy this piano.
|
Per #3, intentions and commitments
soon entrain opportunities. At that point, it's up to you to "use
'em or loose 'em."
Nothing in your commitment precludes
your spending an enjoyable evening with someone with whom you don't have
immediate attraction.
Some of my happily married friends
tell me they do it all the time. |
|
Thu, 11 May
2006
My Commitments
• Fun - I commit
to spending 2 hours a week on the beach.
Sunday night I note down if I follow through on my commitment
• Relationships -
I commit to calling my mom once every week and sharing at least one
story of what is going on in my life this week. I also commit to
noticing my feelings that come up when I talk to her.
After our conversation I note down the story I share with her and what
feelings come up for me in connection with our conversation.
• Right livelihood - I commit to following every signal of my trading system.
Sunday night I note down how many signals I receive during the week and if
I follow them exactly (Type of trade, quantity, price)
• Body - I commit to doing a 40 minute cardio workout 3 times a week and also doing
abdominal exercises for 5 sets of 12 repetitions after each cardio
workout. Sunday night I note down if I follow through on my commitment. |
Thank you for sharing your process.
|
|
Wed, 10 May
2006
Stuck in
Frustration
Dear Ed,
How are you?
Since our last correspondence, I continue practicing TTP and the quality
of our tribe's gathering improved a lot: everyone went to the hot seat
and we did some good works. Another thing I want to thank you is that I
learn from you the nerve of sitting on the positions. I can imagine how
you will react when encountering some difficulties. So my trading is OK.
Even though every thing in my life seems OK, I feel frustrated now. I am
looking for some jobs which I have passion, however I cannot even get an
interview after sending many resumes.
I have to stuck in a job that I
have less interest. I brought this to our tribe meeting several times
and I still feel my frustration. I am not sure whether you have any
suggestion on this. I hope your words may bring me an aha. Thank you in
advance. |
See: The
Joy of Stuck, below |
|
Wed, 10 May
2006
Emotional Numbing
Ed,
This is the second symptom of post traumatic stress that is a condition
I think I still deal with.
It only became clear to me recently.
When I lost my loved ones, my marriage, left my job, sold our house,
ended a future relationship with a man who wanted to marry me ---- I
went into "emotional numbing".
It is not shock. It is not when your body goes cold.
Let me describe this phenomenon as I un-felt it:
It is the numbness of emotions - when your emotions are given anesthesia
like novocaine.
That's it, like undergoing dental work.
When the novocaine wears off, you start to feel those feelings again in
varying degrees of pain.
It is the human being's natural defense mechanism, I believe, to prevent
the onset of immeasurable excruciating pain all at once.
The heart/mind/soul/spirit then decides when to thaw out. Unfreeze.
I haven't read too much literature about numbing. You are probably an
expert about it already. But I would like to read more. |
You might consider joining /
starting a Tribe in your area.

Novocain®
Procaine hydrochloride is a local anesthetic for use
primarily in dentistry, typically by the trade name Novocain®.
The German chemist Alfred Einhorn synthesizes Procaine in 1905 - it
becomes the first injectable man-made local anesthetic. He gives it the
trade name Novocaine, from the Latin 'Novus' (meaning New) plus 'caine'
as in "cocaine". Surgeon Heinrich Braun introduces it into medical use.
Today, Procaine is less popular and less effective than
hypoallergenic alternatives such as lidocaine (xylocaine). Prior to the
discovery of procaine, doctors commonly prescribe cocaine as a local
anesthetic. Procaine (like cocaine) constricts blood vessels, reduces
bleeding and has euphoric and addictive qualities.
Source:
http://encyclopedia.laborlawtalk.com/
novocaine |
|
Wed, 10 May
2006
Trading Up
and Weight Down
Dear Ed,
Last Wednesday evening I had by far my most intense and deep hot seat
since joining the [City] tribe. It starts with my talking to get myself
hot. This in turn leads to a very intense and deep cry - one I have
longed for but not done. I have wanted to cry, and have cried, but not
like this. My stomach muscles draw in and up and time stands still.
After allowing myself to cry, my entire body feels electrified and again
I allow myself to feel it with the incredible
support of the tribe.
It goes on and on and I let
myself have it. The support is unbelievable - I am
affirmed by drums and cheers. In hindsight, as I
write, I understand that the more I allow myself to
have my time and my hot seat, the more intense, warm, and relevant the
receiving is. It is just incredible. The experience goes on and on, and
I let myself experience it and have it. The journey is long and
otherworldly - I can't explain it and have no concrete recollection of
it, but it is intense and I
instinctively know that it is what my body needs to
do.
I go home, read a little, and fall asleep.
The next day I am easily annoyed and kind of hot in
general. This is odd, I think to myself. This
condition persists for a couple of days. Then I
decide to allow myself to enjoy the day and the
weekend and I have a nice time.
When I joined the tribe one of the goals was to 'save' my marriage. The
opposite happened and I know that it is good in spite of the losses and
pain.
My trading has gone from systematically inflicting
pain and suffering on myself to riding winners and
cutting losers. I win because I can, and no longer
lose because I can 'afford' to. My size is smaller,
confidence is up, and equity is rebuilding. I have no
problem doing nothing and allow myself to love being on the right side.
An old friend asked if I lost weight. It was awesome!
I am not 'dieting', but find eating habits have
changed without a conscious effort. Weight is
trending down.
I enjoy making connections with people. This was lost
for a long, long time. I am allowing myself to be
'out there' again, sharing myself.
As I write this I realize that I still seek
permissions from my ex-wife-to-be.
I seek permissions that I know will
not be granted and are incredibly frustrating when they are not. I have
more work to do.
Thank you for the support, Ed, and thank you to the [City] tribe chief for this very special place.
Sincerely, |
Thank you for sharing your process.
Rich and thin can be a nice
combination.

Clip:
http://www.fitnessexpressmanhattan.com/
assets/images/rich_thin.gif
|
|
Tue, 9 May
2006
Losers
Average Losers
Winners
Average Winners
Hi Mr. Seykota and all FAQ readers.
I just want to share something so simple that I am sure many of you have
already heard many times over but the more I say think about it, the
more money I make, the happier my trading and non trading life become
and perhaps in its own way this one simple idea will help nudge me and
others toward right livelihood.
Losers average losers and winners average winners’, is the line I often
find myself saying out loud at my trading desk.
It’s a cliché I know and I’m sorry if it’s a disappointment for that to
be my revelation but if you are trend follower by averaging a loser you
are betting against the prevailing trend, by averaging a winner you are
betting with the prevailing trend, it can’t be any simpler.
If I’d never averaged a loser in my life financially my life would be
unrecognizable from today and if I’d had more confidence to average my
winners my account would look significantly different, as would my
house, car, and financial safety net. The emotional highs and lows
trading against this idea has caused also means my relationship with my
loved ones and alcohol would be improved.
Just wanted to put something back after taking so much from FAQs and
don’t take this powerful idea to lightly.
Thanks. |
Thank you for the reminder. |
|
Mon, 8 May
2006
Arbing the
Workshop Price
You offer a nice arbitrage opportunity on the workshop page.
| |