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Questions

(Quotes from Ed in Red)

Thu, 20 Jul 2006

One Day Off

Metrics_Log_0-0.txt appears to be off by one day in equity.

Thu, 20 Jul 2006

Wiki

I'm wondering how Wikipedia can update in real time based on the content at http://www.seykota.com/rm/.

I think Wiki responds to entries from contributors - so they may change at any time.

Thu, 20 Jul 2006

Atr Multiplier

Thu, 20 Jul 2006

You can see it either way and also in other ways.

Dog Chasing its own Tail

You might wonder

if the dog or the tail comes first.

In the Causal Model,

we look for causes and effects.

In the System Model

we view the simultaneous interactions

of all the elements.

Clip: http://www.softwaremag.com/

Wed, 19 Jul 2006

Commitment and Fidelity - 2

see: Commitment and Fidelity

Ed,

I just have a meeting with my girlfriend, we are expressing our feelings honestly but don't experience them. Basically we give each other entry points and commit to work with those issue apart from each other.

I find this very powerful as we are improving our relationship by helping each other to grow individually. I feel very free at this moment.

My girlfriend points something very interesting out to me: She currently experiences a lot of depression.

Every time she gets in that mood, I try to cheer her up. I can't stand it when she's down like that.

Tonight she tells me that she wants me to just be there with her and listen to her and show her that I care ... sounds familiar. Even though I practice this in our tribe I realize that I don't transfer this behavior to certain aspects of my life.

Then I get my next entry point: my mom is also going through a lot of depression lately, seems like I have an issue with important females in my life being depressed.

A week ago I am frustrated that I don't make much progress in the tribe lately and I am questioning my willingness to push through some major issues. I visit the [another] tribe on Friday night.

Thank you for sharing your process - and your insight about supporting people while they grieve.

Commitment

In TTP, we commit to sticking around

and to being there for each other

and to supporting each other

in experiencing our feelings

especially when we don't feel like it.

Clip: http://www.twilightsite.com/

Wed, 19 Jul 2006

Trading Tribe

Hello Ed,

I am very interested in joining The Trading Tribe. [I hear many people] speak so highly of the whole experience, that I feel I should do this for myself and my family.

I just moved to Incline in May and am experiencing things in my personal and trading life that I am sure can benefit from the Tribe. I also feel I have a lot to offer others.

I have read through your web site and am anxiously awaiting the book I ordered from you. I see you are in England through the weekend and that there is a TT meeting in Incline Village on August 3.

Wed, 19 Jul 2006

Commitment and Fidelity

Hi Ed,

I am reporting my latest hot seat experience which I find exceptionally insightful for me.

I am dating my girlfriend for over a year and I care about her very much, she is one of the most wonderful people I ever meet.

However I am not committing 100% to the relationship. She confronts me and some powerful feelings come up.

I take these feelings to the tribe. The PM acts like he is my girlfriend: "you need to set your priorities straight. you need to show more commitment to this relationship."

I start humming and shaking my head like I don't want to hear it. Then it all starts, I get into the feeling quickly. Several issues come up: my ex-girlfriend who cheats on me and never commits to me.

A lot of pain comes up. I fully experience it. Hot girls I see walking on the street come up. I feel like I am missing out, there is so much opportunity and I am not grabbing it. I experience this feeling and start to get closer to these hot girls until I touch them and I burn my hands, more pain from my ex-girlfriend.

Somehow another girl comes up I really care about. We are intimate for a while, but she is in a relationship. She wants to end the other relationship and be with me but I tell her that I don't want that. I experience the feeling of missing out on a good opportunity.

I tell the PM that these three are my major relationships in my life so far. I start to experience all relationships at the same time. My arms are flying all over the place until I start to calm down. I feel peaceful. The PM acts like my girlfriend again: I answer that I am not sure and that I need time to think about if I want to commit to this relationship.

Thank you for sharing your process.

In the Incline Tribe, the Process Manger may ask for one or another of the receivers to volunteer as a surrogates to help engage the sender's drama.  The PM does not usually take that role himself.

The role of the PM is to hold the space in which the Receivers can validate the Sender and to assist him in experiencing his feelings.

During check-out, the Sender generally reports waves of insights arising from within.

The receivers and PM generally tell their own experiences, rather than providing shocking analysis about each other.

Your might consider taking your feelings about  <wanting to fix others> to the hot seat.

Shocking Insights

In traditional therapy

shocking insights

may come from the therapist

In TTP

they arise from within.

Clip: http://random.average-bear.com/

img/shock-50_2005-08-06-19-46-27.jpg

Wed, 19 Jul 2006

Clarifying my post "back adjusting"

I am clarifying my question from my post on Jul 13th "back adjusting"

According to TSP http://www.seykota.com/

Wed, 19 Jul 2006

Yes, TTP is a way to implement the insights of Carl Jung by helping to make the "inner situation" more conscious.

Carl Gustav Jung

(July 26, 1875 – June 6, 1961)

Everyone carries a shadow, and the less it is embodied in the individual’s conscious life, the blacker and denser it is. If an inferiority is conscious, one always has a chance to correct it. It is constantly in contact with other interests, so that it is steadily subjected to modifications. But if it is repressed and isolated from consciousness, it never gets corrected.

— from Psychology and Religion, 1940.

Clip: www.jashford.com/Pages/

Tue, 18 Jul 2006

The Plane Truth

Howdy Ed,

I've been reading your web site and wanted to thank you for all of the hard work that you have done.

I often wonder why a flat wing plane would fly and your explanation makes more sense than all of the other stuff I've read.

I made some modifications to a balsa wood rubber band powered flat wing plane, I got the idea from the web its not exactly like the original but it’s very close.

Well when I fly the plane it climbs at about a 75 degree angle then stalls out and noses dives down and levels off and comes in for a prefect landing every time. The whole time it’s in the air the plane is very stable.

I was wondering what you thought of the modification. I have several more modifications planed for this plane if you are interested, please contact me.

Technology seems to evolve as a series of insights by individual people who tinker around in their garages. 

Yes, I'd like to see your designs, how they differ from other designs and how these design changes translate into different flight performance. 

Sun, 16 Jul 2006

Associate On the Road

Hi Ed!

The Associates group intention and my snapshot to increase money under management are both taking shape.

Yes.

Trading Tribe Associates

is a support team

that insists on your success.

Clip: http://www.galilmc.com/images/

Sun, 16 Jul 2006

Bernoulli

Yes, no more Mr. Nice Guy.

Sun, 16 Jul 2006

Breathwork Weekend

Yes, breathers are welcome to attend the pre-Breathwork Tribe Meeting and the post Breathwork Party. 

I plan to begin accepting applications on July 19, two weeks + 1 day prior to the Tribe Meeting.

Some Fancy Birthday Breathwork

Clip: http://homeclubs.scholastic.com/

Sun, 16 Jul 2006

Trading Tribe Associates

see The Knot, below

Ed Says:

Sat, 15 Jul 2006

Four Part Synergy

Dear Ed,

I read the FAQ for a year.

I see the emphasis on body health along with the mind. I am in synergy with the pie chart of right livelihood, body, relationships and fun.

I am running a preschool and am a futures trader. Both are an integral part of what I am.

Sat, 15 Jul 2006

The K-not

Ed Says:

For example, we would likely challenge your assumption that there is nothing to improve about your system.

We might also proceed by identifying the feelings and forms that are standing between you and assembling a track record, raising money and obtaining excellent programming services.

We might also support you in creating, clarifying, supporting and realizing Snapshots of your trading business, personal life, key relationships, and health.

It looks like a good idea. I think that a necessary introductory step into the business of managing other peoples' money is to manage our own and have a positive track record, not just theoretical.

My first contact with trading was through some commodity futures and, later, options contracts around six years ago. Just like most naive beginning speculators I was thinking about making the big money, while I myself had almost none to stake and lose for that matter. Once I even borrowed some from a relative. The rest of the story I guess you know.

Over the past two years I have put together the pieces of a trend following system which I deem to be robust and "reliable", provided the assumption that markets will continue to trend. Of course there are some aspects that could be improved, particularly with regard to improving the frequency and reducing the volatility of equity curve through proper and higher diversification.

Yet I think that's beyond my means right now. I am a low net worth individual, esp. to American standards and to a lot of standard contract sizes, and I have vowed to invest only my savings that I can afford to allocate for a long term investment, for such is the nature of my trend following system.

A K-not, in the TTP sense, does not refer to a knotty situation or Catch-22 arrangement.

It refers to a feeling intertwining with a judgment about the system.

When you identify and experience your k-nots, your knotty Catch-22 situations seem to melt away, leaving you at the Joy Point.

If you wish to apply to the TT Associates Program, follow the instructions at the link, above.

Catch-22 refers to

circularly contradictory,

self-defeating

Sat, 15 Jul 2006

Associate Gets out of the Box

Hi Ed !

Originally, when thinking about the Associates program, I recall feeling fear of "locking myself in a box".

After accepting that feeling as ok, I go ahead.

Thank you for sharing your process.

Sometimes, what you find in a box is another box.

Box in a Box

The smallest box in a box

that touches all six faces

of the larger box

has sides 3/5 the length

of the sides of the larger box.

Clip: http://www.ics.uci.edu/~eppstein/

Fri, 15 Jul 2006

Associate Program

Hello Ed and all,

I convinced my bosses about the associate program. I work in a brokerage house and we have a regulated investment advisor license in [Country].

I have a few questions:

1. Yes, we construct the program around your particular situation and preferences.

Sat, 15 Jul 2006

Trading Tribe Associates Program

Ed,

I have some questions about the Associates Program.

Say, I don't think there is anything I want to improve about my system. I designed the system on the premise or intention of having a robust, reliable system and I have only one assumption: that markets will continue to trend, i.e., move up, down and sideways as they always did.

I see that "sticking to it" is an on-going process shared by the trader and his relationships if any (such as clients), and I think that TTP suits best this purpose.

I myself would like to manage clients' money but I don't have any track record, clients' "money" for that matter, any support personnel for programming, compliance and marketing.

I am not clear about the "mission" or intention of the Associate Program.

The Associates Program is an extension of FAQ and TSP for traders who want direct, personal and ongoing support.

For example, we would likely challenge your assumption that there is nothing to improve about your system.

We might also proceed by identifying the feelings and forms that are standing between you and assembling a track record, raising money and obtaining excellent programming services.

We might also support you in creating, clarifying, supporting and realizing Snapshots of your trading business, personal life, key relationships, and health.

Fri, 14 Jul 2006

Breathwork Weekend August 4-6, 2006

Ed,

Yes,  You may apply.

Fri, 14 Jul 2006

TSP Math Error #2

see previous


http://www.seykota.com/

Sat, 15 Jul 2006

A relationship between two methods does not exist in the methods; it is something you (or I) bring to them as a relationship perception.

My perception is that everyone is always in some sort of trance and that people shift from one trance to another much as they shift from one program to another on a computer.

In TTP we encourage the sender to go deeply into his form; in hypnosis, the hypnotist encourages the subject to go deeply into a trance.

TTP forms tend to be physically active and to engage the entire body; trances tend to quiet the mind and the body. 

A Past Life Regression seem to be a metaphor that exists in the now, that some people like to use to support their personal growth.  When people get around to changing and growing, they always do so in the now.

Bunny In a Trance

Putting bunnies in a trance can help when you need to trim toenails, give medicines or amaze your friends.

To trance a bunny, flip him over on his back and pet his cheeks and nose area at the same time.

To get him on his back, pick him up with your right hand under the front legs and your left hand on the butt and then flip the bunny into the crook of your left elbow as if you are cradling a baby.

Once there, pet his face with your right hand. As he goes in, you can see his head start to fall backwards.

To wake him up, simply move him or flip him back to the feet-down position.

With experience, you can trance him with your intention and without all these maneuvers.

Putting humans into trance is similar.
 

Sat, 15 Jul 2006

Cambridge Photos

Dear Ed,

I love the pictures of Cambridge on the Web site.
 

Please note some minor inaccuracies.
 

Thank you for the multiple catches.

I think the page now stands correctly,  per your corrections.  Be sure to click [refresh] or press [F5] to make sure your browser is showing you the latest version.

Fri, 14 Jul 2006

Fractals

Fri, 14 Jul 2006

You can get just about any returns you want by carefully selecting events from the non-existing past.

With this guy,

you might do well to consider

the return of your money

as well as

the return on your money.

Thu, 13 Jul 2006

Unless you want to cope with the mechanics of rolling positions from one contract to another as they mature, you might consider running your back-testing over a continuous series.  In order to eliminate the inter-delivery price steps you get by simply splicing deliveries, we have various ways to smooth (back-adjust) the series.  See TSP for more information.

Trends, both up and down may appear in both negative and positive series.

The Fish to the Right

is under water and trending higher

Clip: http://www.rescuediver.org/gallery1/

Thu, 13 Jul 2006 21:44:09 -0500
 

Following My System # 2

See previous

One day later I do receive a sell signal in the NASDAQ. I could have sold a day earlier at a better price by anticipating my signal, I actually end up missing out.

The good news is that that is fine with me, after taking the feeling to the tribe I am able to stick to my system 100%.

Thank you for sharing your process.

By following your system, you wind up with no profit or loss the first day and an increasingly  profitable position on the second day.

An alternative drama might include: jump your system on the first day and enter the position, see it go against you the next day and get out at a loss - and then decide not to take the eventual winning signal.

You are winding up with less drama and more profit.

Date: 13 Jul 2006

What Babies Know

 

HI Ed !

See:

Why Love Matters; How Affection Shapes a Baby's Brain - by Sue Gephardt

From the book:

"Ironically, what has now been discovered by these scientific processes is that "feelings come first" as the poet e.e. cummings put it, and that our rationality, which science from its inception prized so highly, is built on emotion and cannot exist without it ... the rational part of the brain does not work on its own, but only at the same time as the basic regulatory and emotional parts of the brain:  Nature appears to have built the apparatus of rationality not just on top of the apparatus of biological regulation , but also from it and with it (Damasio 1994: 128)

The brain constructs representations of internal bodily states, links them to other stored representations, and then signals back to the body in a process of internal feedback, which may then trigger off further bodily feelings in a cyclical process.

Hmmm ... Sounds like Fredian Psychology for Parents.

Thu, 13 Jul 2006

Drama, Drama Everywhere

Dear Chief,

I think calculation to find highest bliss function is drama.

Also, I think personification of "Fred" is drama.

Thirdly, I think the subconscious using drama to get the conscious to experience feelings not only doesn't work well but makes it much harder to experience the feeling fully.

Perhaps, with your keen ability to perceive drama in so many areas, you might consider a career in Theatre.

To Someone Who Sees Drama in Everything

this perfectly normal

group of FX traders

may seem to be doing

the old book-head dance.

Thu, 13 Jul 2006

Donchian Math Problem

Ed,


I was looking at the Donchian System results. It shows 1m increasing to around 16.8m from Jan 1990 to April 2006. This works out to a return of around 18.9% return rather than the 17% return shown on the webpage. http://www.seykota.com/tribe/

Charts/Donchian/Default.aspx 


Annualized Return

= ( EndCapital / StartCapital ) ^ (1 / #years) – 1
= (16.853/1)^(1/16.3288 years) -1

You are using an annually compounding growth rate while TSP uses an instantaneously compounding growth rate (see TSP) per the formula:

ICAGR

= ln( final / initial ) / years

Using your figures in this formula, we have

ICAGR

= ln( 16.853 ) / 16.3288

Thu, 13 Jul 2006

Thank you for volunteering as a test-pilot and for sharing your comments.

1. The program does not attract capital.  A trader with a profitable system and the ability to stick to it attracts capital.

2. So far, you are enjoying the results of a day of free system analysis and testing (see #5, below). Your cumulative cost is $0.00 and you owe nothing.  I do not know how to reduce it further. 

In your case, you might have issues about spending and / or losing money - and also about setting up for disappointment. These issues are likely to haunt your trading unless you can find a method to "only" enforce adherence to your trading system.

3. As the organization continues to evolve, I continue to clarify my vision of the program and to find ways to increase the qualifications to participate.

4. I do not know how to provide on-going free research to you and pay my staff and still show a profit. 

If we also handle your accounting, marketing, fund raising, software and legal resources, for free then I wonder what role you expect to play.

5. The test results on your system are tangible and rigorous. The optimizing study reveals something your own software does not show in all your months of testing, namely: about two thirds of your rules are non-essential and or counter-productive.

Sometimes you have to tear  one structure down to the foundation before you can begin re-building.

6. I notice you do not mention your commitment to create a large and profitable trading company or to abandon your earlier idea of holding total equity under management to under $400,000 in order to save money on filing fees.

The Associates program relies on the willingness of the Associate to press through his issues. 

Absent your willingness to continue, I agree with you that the Associate Program is no longer essential to your process.

One Way to Set Up for Disappointment

is to ignore the call

of a dragonfly, a lady frog

or a trading opportunity.

Clip: http://www.elm.esu3.k12.ne.us/

Thu, 13 Jul 2006

Thu, 13 Jul 2006

Heat

Dear Mr. Seykota,

First, I would like to make a proposal for the graphic of the equity curve of your Donchian system on the chart page:

Would it be possible to add a logarithmic scale to the equity curve, so it is possible to see the percentage gains and drawdowns of the system and the current value of the portfolio in numbers?

Second, I would like to ask you a question regarding your concept of portfolio-"heat":

"Heat", as I understand it, is the distributed betsize of the instruments, that are traded.

The study shows monthly percentage gains and losses.  You can run the tests yourself, as an exercise, to determine numerical values and show them on a log scale.

Heat, as I use it, is the measure of equity-normal trade risk.

For example, if you trade a $1,000,000 account with 1% heat, your risk budget for your next trade is $10,000.

If each contract has a risk-to-stop of $2000, you enter five contracts.

If You Can't Take the Heat

reduce your exposure

Thu, 13 Jul 2006

Thu, 13 Jul 2006

Deja-vu

I was on Maui today at a restaurant that our company just finished. I was meeting with our engineer on the project. I was told he had a summer intern inside the restaurant doing the layout. When the young man came out I knew I had met him before, but I did not remember where.

As he introduced him as Ed, I knew I knew him as someone’s kid but I couldn’t figure it out. I asked him his last name, since he looked familiar and he proudly said “Seykota” I told him I knew his father and that I had been at their home last July for the Breathwork and earlier in the year to Reno for a workshop.

Tue, 11 Jul 2006

Disagreeing and Supporting

Hi Ed,

Hope you are well. My hotseat follows:

At the snapshot process, I begin to feel embarrassed as it is my turn to present to the group. I have been absent for a couple of meetings and suggest I have no commitments from the last meeting to present.

Thank you for sharing your process.

Strive Mightily as Adversaries

over the chessboard of life

and then eat and drink as friends.

Clip: http://library.shu.edu/gallery/

Tue, 11 Jul 2006

Following my System

This morning I am anticipating to receive a sell signal in the NASDAQ from my system at the end of the business day. I am tempted to sell before I receive the order, to get a better fill so I don't have to chase the market.

I know this feeling from the hot seat, I don't make the trade, instead I am confident in my test results and know that everything takes care of itself if I follow my system.

Tue, 11 Jul 2006

Intention = Result
 

Hi Ed,

This guy starts out on 7/12/05 with one red paper clip with the goal to trade up to a house

http://oneredpaperclip.blogspot.com/ 

and a year later, 7/12/06, he gets the house

http://www.1redpaperclip.com/

news/Page01.pdf 

and

http://www.1redpaperclip.com/

Tue, 11 Jul 2006

Mushrooms

Psycho-active substances such as psilocybin, LSD-25, and MDMA (Ecstasy) may have an inhibiting effect on the cerebral cortex so that the subject can gather a direct and intense connection with his own feelings.

We achieve a similar and milder effect in Tribe Meetings using drumming and relentless validation.

In Breathwork sessions, we aim to extend this effect by using hyperventilation to reduce specific CO₂ and induce mild alkalosis which also inhibits the cerebral cortex.

Psycho-actives, however, may also inhibit the subject's ability to consciously integrate his experience and convert it into useful wisdom.  In case of over-dose, psycho-actives may also occasion a "bad trip" from which the subject cannot easily or quickly escape.

"Bad trips" seem to involve the subject resisting one or more of his feelings, entering paranoia,  resisting the paranoia, getting panicky, resisting the panic, etc. Practitioners of TTP and people who practice enjoying all their feelings do not usually have "bad trips." 

Science Miraculously Rediscovers Mushrooms

every 20 years or so

and judiciously supplies warnings

about inappropriate use.

Tue, 11 Jul 2006

I do not have any information as to the status of that particular software.

This site provides charts at the Chart Server link, above.

Tue, 11 Jul 2006

The film clips of the event suggest the wind excites the bridge to oscillate at its own resonant frequency.

To see how this works, you can raise the  height of a child in a playground swing by several feet by applying a series of small pushes at the resonant frequency of the child-swing system.

Galloping Gertie

On Nov. 7, 1940, the 5,939-foot long four-month old Tacoma Narrows Bridge breaks apart, succumbing to winds of about 40 miles per hour which induce a convulsive, twisting and waving movement.

Prior to the break-up, consulting engineer Farquharson suggests drilling spill holes in the girders to let the wind pass through. The bridge authority never tests or implements his idea.

Clip: http://www.djc.com/special/

Tue, 11 Jul 2006