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Questions

(Quotes from Ed in Red)

Date: Sun, 30 Apr 2006

New Addition
 

Thank you for sharing this moment.

Sun, 30 Apr 2006

Frustration - see Gas War, Below

Hi Ed,

That email is simply an extension of the frustration many of us in this country are feeling watching our savings and ability to purchase dwindle weekly.

Needless to say, those of us on fixed incomes or contractual workers are finding our ability to pay at the pump / use our cars meeting with very hard times and it appears that this trend will continue.

I could go into a writing about tourist states that rely on summer vacationers or for that matter any time of the year, or any of the other effects that the incredible increases in gas are bringing, but I won't. I am sure you know them, but probably not feel them.

I do sincerely believe this country needs to begin the slow but steady development of other forms of energy and hope that this is taking place. There was a special on this very topic on the tube about a week ago giving several alternatives to petroleum. Very interesting show.

That was all the e-mail was about ... frustration.

You might consider taking your feeling of frustration to your Tribe as an entry point.

The price of gasoline includes the price of crude oil, processing costs, government costs (including regulatory impediments to exploration, taxes and debasement of the dollar), depreciation, wages and profit.

When you notice the relative magnitudes of these costs, one positive intention for your frustration might be to convey your feelings to others, gut-to-gut.

People who are unwilling to experience frustration

and observe its positive intention

are easy targets for populists.

Sun, 30 Apr 2006

A Billion
 

Ed,

Thank you for the math.

A Bill for a Billion Dollars

is no problem

when you can simply pay it off

by printing up

a billion dollar bill

Clip: http://www.zymetrical.com/images/

products/billion.jpg

Sun, 30 Apr 2006

Wants System Parameters

Dear Ed,

I have a question:  What trading system do you use to determine those trends that you post on the Charts pages.

At this moment, the charts at the Chart link, above do not issue from a trading system and do not associate with any signals to buy or sell.

The charts issue from a filter that selects strong charts.

The appearance on the charts does not imply any kind of recommendation to buy, sell, hold or stay out.

Sat, 29 Apr 2006

Ed,

I confirm attendance to the Cambridge workshop in late July.

I commit to getting my passport in time to apply for the UK Visa.

I feel delight that all the members of my Tribe commit to attending this workshop with me. Delight feels like a tingling in the fingers, clapping and wringing my palms together, tapping my feet and whooping, one after the other.

Thanks for everything.

Sat, 29 Apr 2006

Yes.  Call or Email before you drop by - especially if you have to take a plane to get here.

Jam Sessions, Like the Markets

are exercises in organizing chaos.

Clip: http://web.ukonline.co.uk/celtic.occ/

Fri, 28 Apr 2006

Nobel Intent: Leaping Liquids

<http://arstechnica.com/journals/

 Fri, 28 Apr 2006

Thank you for the map. 

You might consider taking your desire to control your emotions to your Tribe as an entry point.

In TTP we do not intend to "get control" of our emotions so much as to "get out of control" with them.

If you want control of your emotions, you might consider pharmacology.

Reading, Writing and Ritalin

Methylphenidate is a medication schools prescribe for children who have attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder. ADHD typically associates with the boredom and irritation students experience when schools subject them to incompetent teaching. Thus, Ritalin is becoming an increasingly popular alternative to good teaching.

Thu, 27 Apr 2006

Single and Looking

I am single. At our last Tribe meeting I commit to creating a meaningful relationship for myself - and to write down my thoughts about it.  Making this commitment brings up a lot of sadness.

Later, in our Tribe meeting, I get into various forms about my not having a consistent, deep, intimate relationship. 

The Process Manager prods me and helps me  find that under the sadness I am holding on to stress and anger.  I wind up repeatedly punching a pillow - and enjoying it immensely - until exhaustion sets in.

Thank you for sharing your process.

When You Have K-nots About Intimacy,

Fred ensures that

despite your "best efforts"

you cannot sustain a relationship.

Clip: http://www.sophiescartoons.com/

Thu, 27 Apr 2006

Thank you for sharing your process.

Willing to Feel Em-Bare-Assed

Clip: http://www.janesmann.com/Paintings/

Wed, 26 Apr 2006

Geezer



My 60th birthday looms (a leading baby boomer) and I realize during the snapshot process that I have some feelings come up when someone asks me a question about my exercise snapshot.

Surprise!

Thought I am calm and cool and just fine with hitting the big 60. Just another birthday -- hah.

As I get into the hotseat, anger and frustration come bubbling up. My body is just not what it once is. I feel society labels me as "old" -- a "geezer"

Agh! I get some stomach upset -- I put the label "fear" on this feeling. Anyway after much action and flailing around (pounding pillows as I recall), I realize that aging is ok -- lots of positive aspects of being a little more cautious than I once was with my body.

The Geezer label is not one I want to use but it is ok if someone else does use it.

The word does not convey enough vibrancy for me. I am lucky -- I am in good health and I feel good.

Three times this week I read a newspaper or see a TV show about some person 103 helping their community. WOW Lots of role models. Lots of time and lots to do.

Thank you for sharing your process.

The Real Alternative to Being a Geezer

is to be a Goner.

Clip: http://www.tybeetyme.com/tb/

Thu, 27 Apr 2006

Dear Chief Ed,

I would appreciate your comments on a slightly modified Pat Hearne betting method from the Reminiscences of a Stock Operator. Suppose we trail a volatility adjusted stop (say 3*ATR below the highest high, representing 1% risk) after the entry and keep adding a 1% risk position once every 3*ATR units of price are reached. Thus the position risk is kept constant at 1% and full advantage is taken from a long smooth trend. I am considering this method as opposed to adding at breakouts of last swing high and trailing the stop below last swing low, as the latter method is not adding during long smooth trends without any corrections.

Let me finish by saying that I truly admire your work and professional and above all personal achievements. You are a great inspiration. Thank you for maintaining your website. The FAQ's are a fascinating read and far more useful and revealing than any book written on trading.
 

FAQ does not  offer specific trading advice, or recommend specific trading system parameters. See Ground Rules, above.

I wonder what is standing between you and back-testing your system in order to answer your own questions.

Wed, 26 Apr 2006

Thank you for sharing your process.

Some People Can Hardly Wait

to start procrastinating.

Clip: http://www.bankersonline.com/

Tue, 25 Apr 2006

Rejection

Ed, I sent the TTID for a new tribe a couple of weeks ago along with a short note to you. The note was published in FAQ(4/11: "road rage") but the TTID never made it to the Tribe Directory.

Coincidentally(?), I was already thinking of exploring my feelings regarding rejection on the hot seat.
 

Thank you for sharing your process.

Sometimes Rejection

is mostly projection

Tue, 25 Apr 2006

FAQ does not endorse people or commercial products or trade commercial links.

Tue, 25 Apr 2006

Strong Sector

Hi Ed !

Coal is a strong sector, with three companies making appearances on your strong stock charts. Here are all the players I know. I am looking for an entry point.
 

Closing Prices for April 25, 2006
 

I am putting some of these charts on the site at the Charts link, above.  Please tell me if and when you convert "looking for an entry point" into "entering an order."

Meanwhile, you might take your feelings about "what is standing between you and having powerfully trending stocks in your portfolio" to your Tribe as entry points.

In the Supermarket

and in the stock market

participation begins

at the point of sale.

Clip: http://www.zebra.com/id/zebra/na/

en/index/industry_solutions/applications/

Tue, 25 Apr 2006

The k-not you cannot see might be about your own unwillingness for the sender to fail. 

When you adopt an intention to facilitate the process rather than to "help the patient" you may find the process becomes much more efficient.

When I encounter an "incorrigible" moment in the process, I stop to confirm the sender, is willing to participate fully.

If he confirm he is, I then ask him to proceed with full intention.  Otherwise, I simply end the process and pass on to the next sender.

Clip: http://www.stpauls-lakeview.org/images/willingness.gif

Mon, 24 Apr 2006

Wants To Be A Client

Dear Ed,

As you may recall, I am very interested in investing with you. However, I do not have sufficient funds to invest within the parameters you suggest.

Consequently, I have been attempting to find investment partners. That process has been moving excruciatingly slowly. Truthfully, if I had the financial means I would not take on any partners.

In any case, I have not given up and will continue my efforts to find appropriate partners, though I am becoming increasingly concerned about the passage of time.

In that regard, it has occurred to me that possibly you may know of others in my position, who also would like to invest with you, that you may be willing to introduce to me. My goal is to invest with you for the long term.

Mon, 24 Apr 2006

Snapshot Attempt

Hi, Ed.

Four members, one a graduate of Jan06 Workshop who runs the process. Three good Snapshots (one probably near perfect), but one failure (myself).
We all read up on and thought-thru the process in advance - it was carefully considered.

I will report on the failure, and try to ask questions in a manner that will lead to better results in the non-existent :) future.

I have several problems with the Snapshot process :

1) There is NO motion : I personally cannot EVEN imagine anything that I might want that does not include "motion".  Here is an example - I want to ski a snow slope in Aspen :  I picture myself skiing down (but that involves motion) ...

... OR ...

I picture myself at the bottom of the slope Already --
Soooooo ... How did I get there? Did I ski? Did I fall?
My friend drove me there? Was the picture taken in front of a Billboard of the ski-slope?  Sorry, but I just do not understand this concept : Either I DO IT MYself or it is worthless.

2) I do NOT understand the concept of "Progress" within a Snapshot : i.e., I create a Snapshot in the "Now" - The resultant picture is also in the "Now".
Ed says Sat, 1 Apr 2006 Snapshot Commitment :
Note: The Snapshot Process now includes making and keeping interim commitments. Where is there "TIME" for "interim commitments"?

I DO understand something like "In 5 years I will have $XXX to buy this house." (or, "In 5 years I will have this house.")  But I don't understand something like :"I need $xxx to buy this house." "I HAVE it NOW." "But actually... I don't Really, Really "have it now". But I have saved up $1,000 towards this (as of "Now") and intend to have another $1,000 in the "Next Now" to add to it."

3) I am NOT willing to disclose : (and this is quite probably most important - If I phrase this part properly, I just MAY come up with a question worth answering.) :One of the EXCELLENT things about the Hotseat is that I do _not_ have to expose "personal info" - i.e., I can say I have "AN ISSUE", and then proceed to use Forms to work thru said 'ISSUE' with freedom.

But with a Snapshot, I not only MUST describe it in detail, but I ALSO MUST draw a picture of it for all to see.  Now I will (and do) say that my "Reluctance to Disclose" is not to save possible embarrassment to myself, but because I do not feel that I have the emotional permission of the other Tribe members to inflict this specific image on them. UN-REGARDLESS .... I can not (and will not) disclose my Snapshot - It is personal. So (since cash $$ would provide the solution) I chose to present the Snapsshot as acquiring this cash $$ amount. (NOTE : Tribe failed to "Buy In".) 

The snapshot process leads along two paths:

#1. You manifest your intention as results.

 

#2.  Some k-not or another comes up.  You take the k-not to your Tribe and untie it.  Then you go back to #1 above.

Either way you win.

It seems to me you are progressing along path #2.

Aside from trying to hold onto a belief in time, you seem to have a strong aversion to personal disclosure.  Disclosure is essential to building a support team to manifest your snapshot.

You might take your feelings of revealing yourself, perhaps embarrassment, to your Tribe as entry points.

Gynecomastia (Woman-Like Breasts)

can be a point of embarrassment

for young males of all ages.

Clip: http://www.allsaintsclinic.org/

Mon, 24 Apr 2006

GAS WAR - An Idea That WILL Work

(from a university professor)

Join the resistance!!!! I hear we are going to hit close to $4.00 a gallon by next summer and it might go higher!! Want gasoline prices to come down? We need to take some intelligent, united action.

This makes MUCH MORE SENSE than the "don't buy gas on a certain day" campaign that was going around last April or May! The oil companies just laughed at that because they knew we wouldn't continue to "hurt" ourselves by refusing to buy gas.

It was more of an inconvenience to us than it was a problem for them. BUT, whoever thought of this idea, has come up with a plan that can really work. Please read on and join with us! By now you're probably thinking gasoline priced at about $1.50 is super cheap. Me too! It is currently $2.79 for regular unleaded in my town. Now that the oil companies and the OPEC nations have conditioned us to think that the cost of a gallon of gas is CHEAP at $1.50 - $1.75, we need to take aggressive action to teach them that BUYERS control the market-place, not sellers.

With the price of gasoline going up more each day, we consumers need to take action. The only way we are going to see the price of gas come down is if we hit someone in the pocketbook by not purchasing their gas! And, we can do that WITHOUT hurting ourselves.

How? Since we all rely on our cars, we can't just stop buying gas. But we CAN have an impact on gas prices if we all act together to force a price war.

Here's the idea: For the rest of this year, DON'T purchase ANY gasoline from the two biggest companies (which now are one), EXXON and MOBIL. If they are not selling any gas, they will be inclined to reduce their prices. If they reduce their prices, the other companies will have to follow suit. But to have an impact, we need to reach literally millions of Exxon and Mobil gas buyers. It's really simple to do! Now, don't wimp out on me at this point ...keep reading and I'll explain how simple it is to reach millions of people!! I am sending this note to 30 people. If each of us sends it to at least ten more (30 x 10 = 300) ... and those 300 send it to at least ten more (300 x 10 = 3,000)...and so on, by the time the message reaches the sixth group of people, we will have reached over THREE MILLION consumers.

If those three million get excited and pass this on to ten friends each, then 30 million people will have been contacted! If it goes one level further, you guessed it..... THREE HUNDRED MILLION PEOPLE!!!

Again, all you have to do is send this to 10 people. That's all!

(If you don' t understand how we can reach 300 million, all you have to do is send this to 10 people....Well, let's face it, you just aren't a mathematician. But I am . so trust me on this one.) :-) How long would all that take? If each of us sends this e-mail out to ten more people within one day of receipt, all 300 MILLION people could conceivably be contacted within the next 8 days!!! I'll bet you didn't think you and I had that much potential, did you! Acting together we can make a difference. If this makes sense to you, please pass this message on. I suggest that we not buy from EXXON/MOBIL UNTIL THEY LOWER THEIR PRICES TO THE $1.30 RANGE AND KEEP THEM DOWN. THIS CAN REALLY WORK.

 

Nicholas M. Michelli

Presidential Professor

Ph.D. Program in Urban Education

The Graduate School

The City University of New York

365 Fifth Avenue New York, NY 10016-4309

Voice: 212-817-8252 Fax: 212-817-1515
Cell: 917-882-7670
nmichelli@gc.cuny.edu

Price is a reflection of the interplay of many buyers and sellers. If you successfully boycott one seller, that seller goes out of business.

This reduces competition.  Other sellers soon experience a shortage and / or raise prices.

So, in addition to hurting retail vendors, the boycott inconveniences consumers and results in them having less choices and having to pay more, not less for gasoline.

Populism is a political philosophy or rhetorical style that holds that the common person's interests are oppressed or hindered by the "self-serving elite" in society, and that the government needs to take control of resources and take them away from the elite and use these resources for the benefit and advancement of the people as a whole.

An effective populist understands how to craft his rhetoric to appeal to the economic, social, and common sense concerns of average people in order to promote a  political ideology.

You might consider taking your feelings about high prices to your Tribe as entry points.

Cartoon, Houston Daily Post, March 30, 1896.

Monetary policy is the major economic issue of the 1890s. "Sound money" advocates believe the United States should adhere to the gold standard in backing U.S. currency. Others believe that currency deflation ruins farmers and advocate unlimited coinage of silver money to create inflation.

The Farmer's Alliance is firmly in the silver camp. In 1890, they back James S. Hogg in his successful campaign to become the first progressive governor of Texas.

The more militant members of the Alliance become impatient with Hogg and launch the Populist Party in 1891. Especially after the Panic of 1893, interest in the party grows. In the election of 1894, the Populist candidate for governor draws 36 percent of the vote, and the party elects two senators and twenty-two members of the Texas House.

The zenith of the movement comes in 1896. As this cartoon shows, while the silver and gold factions of the Democratic Party are wooing voters, the Populist is walking away with the cake. The woman as symbol of Democracy is an ironic choice, since women in this time may not vote in Texas.

The Populist candidate for Texas governor receives 44 percent of the vote. On the national level, the Democratic Party nominates a Populist, William Jennings Bryan, for president. Bryan receives 46 percent of the vote. It proves to be the high-water mark for the Populists. With Bryan's defeat and economic recovery, the Populist Party loses traction.
 

Clip and Information: http://www.tsl.state.tx.us/

Sun, 23 Apr 2006

No Coincidence

I'm encouraged to feel and experience my feelings
instead of blocking them out.  I'm more comfortable with others expressing their feelings, I encourage it instead of telling them how they should be feeling. I enjoy the process, the NOW, instead of focusing on the end result. I'm more comfortable with myself and where I am. We have a great TTP group that supports and validates each other without judgment.

And a funny thing happened on the way to this
comfortable position.

Last year was my best ever for trading and golfing.

Coincidence ...

Thank you for sharing your process.

In Golf and in Investing

clarity of intention

shows up as results

Sun, 23 Apr 2006

Weight Loss

Attached is the chart of my weight loss. Today’s weight was 248lbs. My progress has seemed to stagnate. I feel I may need to increase the level of the intensity of the workouts.

Thank you for sharing your process.

Sat, 22 Apr 2006

Promising Stocks

I want to emulate the likes of Ed Seykota.

All else being equal, does a trend follower who can stomach more heat gets higher returns? I am 29 yrs old and want to devote my life to trend following. I have so much passion for trend following, I can hardly sleep and can't wait to wake up early in the morning to go backtest some ideas. I saved up $20k and recently started trading equities using a trend following system. I want to emulate Ed Seykota, not Henry, Dunn or others.

Q1. What step must I take next? (stick to the system?, keep testing? work on my psychology?)

Q2. Was the "model account" that you took from $5k to $12,000,000 on a 0.5% bet size per trade? :)

Q3. When you select what looks like a "promising" stock, do you keep pulling the trigger after being stopped out or do you move on to other markets if the first attempt fails? The reason I am asking is because I noticed many stocks will breakout with strength only to fall back, hit my stop, linger a couple months or so and then really take off.

Thank you for your input Ed. Your website is as close as to having a mentor.

It is a rare luxury in this business.

FAQ does not tell people what they should do.  See Ground Rules, above.

A promise is a statement that you will do something in the (non-existing) future. As such,

all promises have an inherent design flaw.

I don't know of any stocks that make promises.  I merely know stocks that meet various mathematical criteria in the now.

You might consider having a look at what you mean by a "promising" stock.

Jan 20, 2005

Ailing Supreme Court Justice Rehnquist

administers the Oath of Office to President Bush

An oath is a solemn promise.

That means it has

a solemn design flaw.

Sat, 22 Apr 2006

Support  / Resistance  System

Hi Ed:

I sent you an email last night with regards to your support / resistance system.

I could have made it simple by asking you:
If you use short-term support and short term resistance to enter and exit the market, what purpose is being served by the long term support and long term support?

Thanks.

PS: I went through your experiment on Radial Momentum Laws.

Great work. How do you manage things as diverse as trading, physics, human psychology (TTP)!

One S/R set determines the overall direction and the other S/R set gets in and out in the overall direction.

Thus, while the long-term trend is up, you go back and forth from long to out.  While the long-term trend is down, you go back and forth from short to out.

One theme common to my interests in the markets and in fluid dynamics is momentum.

Momentum (P) = Mass (m) times Velocity (v)

A basic tenet of physics

and trend trading

is conservation of momentum.

Clip: http://id.mind.net/~zona/mstm/physics/

Sat, 22 Apr 2006

Intentions Equal Results

Sir,

Presently, a perfect bull market is being witnessed here. Though my trading business until now is also in line with the trend, very recently I had to face a severe setback by way of losses while short term trading. Eventually my fund has gone down to a certain extent which clearly indicates that the result is negative.

As per the model of intentions equal results, Sir, was I passing through the phase of negative intentions during that period ?

Short Term Trading is one good way to realize your intention of reducing account equity.

The Slow Vehicle

sometimes finishes first.

Clip: http://www.cartoondepot.com/pages/img/wb/

Fri, 21 Apr 2006

Thank you for sharing your process.

To Order,  see Trading Tribe Book, above.