Ed Seykota's

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Questions

(Quotes from Ed in Red)

Sun, 14 Aug 2005

Fundamentalist Wins Acceptance

see: Previous

Dear Mr. Seykota:

It has just come to my attention that on 14 Apr 2003 you referred to a paper by
[Name] and myself in April, 2003.

I would like to thank you for using our work as an example and I take this opportunity
to inform you that this paper has recently been accepted for publication in "Econometric Theory".

With best regards,

Hmmm ... perhaps your appearance in FAQ is the fundamental "cause" of your success.

After all, it passes two important tests:

1. Your appearance on FAQ precedes your acceptance.

 

2. Your appearance on FAQ occurs once and your acceptance occurs once; thus, FAQ appearance correlates with acceptance in 100% of cases.

Sat, 13 Aug 2005

TTP Contradiction


Dear Chief Seykota,

Greetings.

By way of introduction, I am a writer and currently inactive trader, beginning participation in the [City] chapter TTP.

As a newcomer -- having only attended one meeting so far -- I'm sensitive to not doing or saying anything to derail the process.

While brushing up on the TTP process this morning, I ran across an apparent contradiction on your Web site:


Ed Writes:

Trading Tribe Member Philosophy

I use intentional language:
- No Direct Questions, especially "Why?"

Example of The Trading Tribe Process:

Art is on the hot seat and Bill and Carl are facilitating.

- Bill: OK, great, what physical feeling do you have. [?]

- Bill: So I wonder how you feel about buying breakouts. [?]

"What physical feeling do you have. [?]" ...strikes me as a fairly direct question.

I do not understand the distinction. Will you please clarify?

Good Catch.

The Sharing Feelings form:

I wonder how you feel.

is more consistent with TTP than the Demanding Information form:

What feeling do you have?

The former tends to keep the sender in his head, the latter to move him into his forms.

In general, if the receivers intend to serve the sender in experiencing his feelings, they find a way to do so.

Sometimes, during the early phases of a process, direct questions can provoke a reticent sender into displaying feelings.

Once forms present, however, we quickly abandon the use of questions and shift to encouragement, validation and acknowledgment.

Sometimes Questions

can feel a bit prickly

and draw the sender

out of process.

Clip: http://www.ainc-inac.gc.ca/

ks/images/pic_porci.gif

Fri, 12 Aug 2005

TT Book - Page Sequence


Hi Ed, I believe in your book Page 149 could be followed by Page 151 and page 148 to be followed by Page 150. I understand the book is written in layers and I would appreciate clarity in this matter.

Page 149 starts with the Sender's Original View. 

Page 150 describes the Encouragement Process, Receiver Check-Outs and Sender Check-Out. 

Page 151 continues with the Sender's New View at the end of the process and again later that night.

Thu, 11 Aug 2005

Say you want to buy a car and only have a few dollars.

I wonder if you:

A) go out and purchase something in your budget, like a spare tire (or)

B) wait until you can afford to buy a whole car.

Plan A:

Drive This Around for a While

Plan B:

Save up and buy a whole car.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

Plan C:

Develop a trading system

and attract capital.

Clip: http://www.erareplicas.com/

Thu, 11 Aug 2005

Drumming Cheers People Up

Ed-

Since reading your book, The Trading Tribe, we have introduced the drum session into our evening. Drums start our meeting. We also take the drumming into the hot seat session when we are cheering people up.

Drumming creates a rhythm in our session that allows many of us to reach a deeper state of feeling and hold on longer. A trend channel is created by the rhythm. My most pronounced feeling (as I generally experience many some I can conceptualize and most which I cannot) today was to experience the feeling of “awkwardness”.

I must have looked plenty awkward contorting on the hot seat, convulsing like an electro-shocked person, lying on the floor and convulsing some more, and generally feeling incredibly good sensations throughout my body.

Awkwardness has a positive intention, and tonight it felt awesome to feel awkward. The tingling feeling moves through my body, four hours since TTP ended.

Our Tribe group has evolved since I joined in January 2004. We encourage Pollination with other groups and correspond in emails and by the phone.

For me, a lot changed when we embraced the cheering up process, picking up on physical gestures and encouraging and validating those gestures relentlessly.

Also, when I consciously started welcoming and encouraging the feeling as soon as it presented itself inside my body (an internal facilitator so to speak) TTP became more intense for me.

Also, I now regularly go into a sending state while others are on the hot seat and I am receiving.

I do not sacrifice receiving, but once in a while what I receive is so strong I naturally capitalize on it and that puts me in a hot seat state of sending.

Anyways, it has been two sessions in a row that I find myself in a very deep hallucinogenic state that made me feel very high in my head and body.

Intention for the process to work is essential; following any one technique is not.

TTP affords the process manager considerable latitude in technique.

If you carry an intention to "cheer up" the sender, then you may co-incidentally invalidate his gloom and prevent him from experiencing it.

Sending and receiving are not states as much as tasks.  The receivers' task is to encourage the sender to experience his feelings. 

In TTP, the receivers stay on task  and support the sender in sending.  They do not pop over into being other senders.

Your comment that "sex will be good" indicates future orientation.

You might consider keeping your lovemaking in the now - or perhaps sharing your unwillingness to do so with your partner.

Lovemaking and TTP

both seem to work better

when you stay in the now

and stay on task

with your partner.

Clip: http://www.minibite.com/

Thu, 11 Aug 2005

Snapshot Complete

I am very happy to report to you today that I have achieved my snapshot.

Part 1 of my snapshot was living at Noosa on the Sunshine Coast in Queensland. I have recently signed a 12 month lease on a fantastic home at Noosa overlooking the beach .

Part 2 of my snapshot was “enjoying the now”. This I have accomplished which I thought would take many years. Fortunately for me through the learning I did at the Reno Workshop and the support from you who supported me, a lot of work on myself, a great TTP tribe in Sydney, and the discovery of a fantastic book “The Power of Now” by Eckhart Tolle, I am now free of many emotions that previously held me back in life and trading and kept me out of the present.

I want to thank you all very much for supporting me in my snapshot and Ed for all the effort you have put into the TTP and your generosity with your knowledge in your workshops and writings. Since you published your book our group has really come together.

Kindest Regards

Snapshot of Snapshot

Wed, 10 Aug 2005

Wants to Attend Breathwork

Dear Ed,

I want let you know that we now have 4 members in our Tribe. We have meetings every month since May.

Thanks for everything.

Wed, 10 Aug 2005

TTP By The Book

Dear Ed,

[Our] Tribe has 4 meetings since the last check-in. We are meeting weekly now. Two meetings are spent discussing your book and doing some of the workbook exercises.

The meeting a month ago is cut short due to a sleepy sender. He has judges going on and at the time I do not know how to handle them, and he is truly sleep deprived. I receive him the best I can and finally decide in the interest of (driving) safety to end the meeting and let him go home and go to bed.

His starting issue has to do with procrastination, but during the process an unpleasant feeling in his chest becomes "just coolness" with a relaxed sweep of his hand. He tells me at the next meeting that there has been a beneficial shift for him in how he handles sleepiness!

Before he said he would press on with whatever he is doing and be grouchy and disagreeable - and unproductive. The day before he gets sleepy in the evening but instead of pressing on, takes a nap instead; rejoining his family for a nice evening later. If the trend is sleep, go with the trend!

Our last meeting is a breakthrough for both of us. We both successfully use the technique in your book to "Honor the Judge".

Exactly right out of the book and it works powerfully. We also both successfully execute the Reintegration Process. This is the first time we attempt it. My hotseat session lasts only about 30-40 minutes, forms, judges, reintegration - all of it. The issue that I take to the hotseat is a fear of, attitudes about and reluctance to actually mastering C++ and writing and coding my own Trading System. I am immediately hit with anxiety and start jumping around in my chair just looking at my notes before we formally start the process. The early part of the process has a lot of body movements and anxiety for me.

I ask the receiver to keep triggering me (when the emotions and forms fade) by giving me a "lecture" on how I was going to have to do all this code writing - by myself - no riding anybody else, etc. And also he throws in what a bitch it is, learning a bunch of stuff you will never use! (Receiver has his own attitudes about C++) We are both cracking up as I go through all the stuff that comes up. At times, it is unpleasant and funny almost simultaneously or in very rapid sequence. Some weird body sensations just flash through my abdomen and chest. Receiver says "good, do more of that, feel that more" -- but it is gone.

Not all of this hotseat is pleasant or easy and parts of it I forget for a few days and am still unconscious about many details. I become nauseous early on and think I might need a barf bag. As part of a judge (I think) I have this awful "thing" in my throat happen. My throat is dried up, glued shut, paralyzed. I cannot talk. I flail around trying to get relief or speak. This throat thing repeats at least once. I also remember a really bad feeling in my abdomen - not nausea. The judge on it is sweeping my hands up from the belly and out the mouth. I try to gag and finally make sounds to expel whatever it is and end by shouting something like "get out", "go" over and over with the sweeping. I remember eventually enjoying the hand sweeping and shouting.

At the end of the reintegration, receiver asks how I feel about learning C++ and I say "Well I can take a class at (local university)" Duh! Never occurred to me before. I still feel some anxiety and doubt about learning C++ 2 days after the process. Yesterday I read up on the college C++ class, check the website of the Computer Science department, and the student's C. Sci. club.

Thank you for inspiring others by sharing your success story.

Finding the Happy Judge

releases the K-not

Clip: http://www.clipsahoy.com/

clipart2/as2924.gif

Wed, 10 Aug 2005

In the Flow / Receiving the Flow

Ed,

In this business you have to learn to tolerate ambiguity and uncertainty. - Don Worden,

I achieve this (learning) by practicing TTP (celebrating those feelings) at my tribe and reading the FAQ's.

Thank you Ed for what you do for the tribe community, sharing your insight and your experience of the markets.

In TTP we do not strive to tolerate uncertainty - we strive to assimilate its positive intention.

Certainty / Uncertainty

are names for the trust or doubt

we feel about our predictions.

In 1763 Thomas Bayes, an English clergyman and mathematician, proposes Bayes' Theorem.

His theorem provides a method to calculate, from historical trials, the probability or likelihood of an occurrence in future trials.

People with K-nots about trust and doubt tend to dwell on trying to assess the probabilities of individual events and trying to predict the future.

When people work through these k-nots, they tend to lose interest in individual events and gain interest in building and operating a system that averages out profitably in the long-term.

Clip: http://www.mharris.eurobell.co.uk/

Wed, 10 Aug 2005

Getting on the Right Side

by Buying Highs


Mr. Seykota,

First, I came across a few of your musical performance with the banjo. It was quite entertaining, you sure have the rhythm. I bought an acoustic guitar myself for when my trading will be on auto-pilot, I can spend time learning the craft. I think everyone should master an instrument in their lifetime.

Second, I am in the process of designing a trend following system for stocks. I have a small account so not yet sufficiently capitalized for futures.

Tue, 09 Aug 2005

TTP Starting to Make Sense

Chief Ed,

One of the things I come to understand is the essential need to describe and define trading and other processes such that they can be reduced to computer code.

I notice that as I describe and define high-level processes, certain other supporting processes, at a lower level, become a focus of attention. These lower level processes also require study, description and definition.

For example when describing and defining a trading system such that it can be reduced to computer code, optimal bet size becomes evident.

Knowing optimal bet size by optimizing on the system variable Expectation is not quite the same as having the optimal psychology to execute these optimal-sized bets.

I notice the optimal bet size increases volatility in results. I notice that accepting the increased volatility created by optimizing bet size for Expectation is not always a simple matter ... in terms of psychology.

I realize that now I must study, describe, develop and refine my "psychological system" since it provides 100% of any underlying support for ability to actually execute on optimal-bet sized trades.

I notice that the underlying psychological support for placing optimal-size bets has everything to do with actualizing trading system profitability.

I get to this point and I realize the pivotal role of philosophy, not just in trade execution, but in an overall ability to execute on living -- generally.

As I think about this, concepts and associated words and word definitions such as integrity, clarity, purpose, harmony, flow and integration come to my attention.

It all begins to make sense as I realize how specific TTP techniques such as SVO-p support and encourage a system of thought aimed towards a philosophy of clarity, integrity and integration.

While I do not accept everything she defines in her philosophy, I am challenged by, and gain new appreciation of, the essay:

"Philosophy: Who Needs It?" by Ayn Rand.
http://www.tracyfineart.com/

Tue, 9 Aug 2005

Competition Promotes

Public School Reform

There's an interesting phenomenon taking place at a west Phoenix elementary school.

It's called the Pride Program, and it's giving sixth-graders challenging courses in reading, writing, and arithmetic.

School administrators are implementing the back-to-basics program to lure students to Cartwright Elementary, which has lost more than 1,200 students to area charter and private schools. Martha Garcia, president of the school's governing board, says the school is "offering so much more now than before that we can attract some of those students we lost."

The phenomenon of competition from alternative schools forcing traditional schools to focus on providing a high quality education is not isolated to west Phoenix. It's also happening in other areas of the nation that are giving parents school choice.

And it's getting results. Harvard researcher Carolyn Hoxby has established that student test scores in public schools facing competition have risen, often by up to eight or more national percentile points in just one year.

That's a powerful trend that could turn Cartwright Elementary students into real success stories.

Read the Arizona Republic news story:
http://www.azcentral.com/news/

Yes. 

Tue, 9 Aug 2005

Award

Tue, 9 Aug 2005

The  Coyote seems similar to a good receiver, also to the markets.

The Coyote

has a reputation for being

crafty, sly and wily

except, of course,

when the Roadrunner is around

Clip: http://oseb79.free.fr/images/

Serie,%20cartoon/Coyote%2005.jpg

Tue, 9 Aug 2005

Junk Mail from TT Directory Site

Dear Sir:

Please remove my email address from the Caracas Trading Tribe.

For your information, your website is data-mined by fraudsters running the Nigerian Scam and others. I receive scam emails daily.

We are not progressing in the local tribe membership.

Sincerely

Your listing no longer appears. 

Some Tribe Leaders use a separate email address for Tribe business..

See San Diego Tribe, below.

Tue, 9 Aug 2005

Continuous Futures


Ed,

I am reading the Trading System Project section of your site and I have a question:

When I create the continuous contract and I add the total sum of all rolls (approximately 400 points in your example) to every data point, in order to make the last trading day equal to the last trading day of the most active contract, do I still create a valid continuous contract for my back-testing?

Thank you.

The Panama Canal features a system of locks that float ships up or down so they can travel between the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans.

The Panama Method of creating a continuous contract floats contracts up or down so that they can splice together without a seam.

You can  begin splicing with the first contract (First True Method), or with the last contract (Last True Method).

Unless your trading system uses the absolute value of the contract, the choice of First True or Last True makes little difference.

The Panama Canal

raises and lowers ships

by a system of locks.

Clip: http://www.sgj.us/photos2/

Mon, 8 Aug 2005

Opportunity

see July 26, 2005

Dear Ed,

Sorry for not being clear on the definition of opportunity. I think of it as the number of trends (as one defines) that appears in the time frame (that one chooses).

Therefore, if we look at a moving average crossover system for the last ten years, the longer the look-back period I use, the bigger the trend (in magnitude) I can find, but also the smaller the number of those trends that fit the definition. In other words, I may have 10 trades using a 200-day average, but perhaps 30 trades if I use a 50-day average. The "10" and the "30" is what I have in mind when I say opportunity (I guess some use frequency?).

I find your comment very interesting and would like to learn more.

Ed Says: If opportunity  is a relative of probability, you might be employing a term fundamental analysts use that alludes to the non-existing future.

Can you please elaborate how probability is a part of the fundamentalists' terms? Don't we all use probability in position sizing calculations - such as Kelley's formula or even your risk management article - and employ terms such as "expected value"?

Thank you very much for the lessons you generously give through the answers in all my questions. I truly appreciate it.

A long-term trading system typically generates fewer trades than a short-term trading system.

An opportunity is an event plus an expectation of a favorable outcome.

Your choice of the word opportunity to characterize trades indicates an expectation of winning, likely also an attachment to being right. 

These forms generally associate with fundamental analysis.

Trend Traders get a signal and pull the trigger without regard to the result of any individual trade.

Summing over many trades, you can derive an aggregate expectation for system profitability.

For example, if you flip a coin a hundred times you can expect to get somewhere between 40 and 60 heads.

Expectation is a property of aggregate trials, not an indication of the outcome of any individual trial.

Raindrops, as individuals,

defy prediction.

By aggregating raindrops,

we can compute historical averages

such as inches of rainfall per year.

While historical averages

may indicate overall rainfall,

they do not predict the arrival

of any one raindrop.

Clip: http://www.praktica-users.com/

Mon, 8 Aug 2005

Seeing Your Own Reflection

See: Tue, 26 Jul 2005

Ed says: When You Can Play a Game and not see your own reflection, you are at the zero point.

This is very interesting and can you please elaborate more? What does it mean by not seeing your own reflections?

My understanding of zero point is that moment where you're so into the process that you're just completely in it, somewhat like what they call "in the zone" in sports.

How does it then relate to seeing your own reflection?

When you trade at the Zero Point, you do so without responding to your own hopes, fears, expectations and other emotions about the trade. 

You operate the system, invisibly, without seeing yourself.

A Livestock Trader

at the Zero Point

sees this.

Clip: http://www.aspencountry.com/

aspen/assets/product_images/

Mon, 8 Aug 2005

TTP By The Book

Dear Ed,

Our new Tribe has had 4 meetings since the last check-in. We are meeting weekly now. Two meetings were spent discussing your book and doing some of the workbook exercises.

he meeting a month ago was cut short due to a sleepy sender. He had judges going on and at the time I did not know how to handle them, and he was truly sleep deprived.

I received him the best I could and finally decided in the interest of safety to end the meeting and let him go home and go to bed.

His starting issue had to do with procrastination, but he told me at the next meeting that there had been a beneficial shift for him in how he handled sleepiness!

Before he said he would press on with whatever he was doing and be grouchy and disagreeable - and unproductive. The day before he had gotten sleepy in the evening but instead of pressing on, went and took a nap instead; rejoining his family for a nice evening later. If the trend is sleep, go with the trend!

Our last meeting was a breakthrough for both of us. We both successfully used the technique in your book to "Honor the Judge".

Exactly right out of the book and it worked powerfully. We also both successfully executed the Reintegration Process.

This was the first time we had attempted it. My hotseat session lasted only about 30-40 minutes, forms, judges, reintegration - all of it.

I felt out of it after the process for a few minutes but soon was feeling energized, calm and confident. The issue that I took to the hotseat had to do with fear of, attitudes about and reluctance to actually mastering C++ and writing and coding my own Trading System.

I asked the receiver to keep triggering me by giving me a "lecture" on how I was going to have to do all this - by myself - no riding anybody else. And also he threw in what a bitch it was! We were both cracking up as I went through all the stuff that came up. It was unpleasant and funny almost simultaneously or in very rapid sequence. Some body sensations would just flash through my body. Receiver would say "good, do more of that, feel that more" -- but it would be gone.

Earlier, my partner hot-seated some criticisms he had of himself as a tribe member and an inability or unwillingness to let go and be demonstrative on the hotseat. He had really nice breakthroughs on all of it demonstrating a stack of judges (as body movements) and eventually enjoying and integrating every one.

Honoring the Judge was the key to success.

We meet again tomorrow night. Thank you Ed.

Thank you for inspiring others by sharing your process.

Mon, 8 Aug 2005

Take Big Profits Or No Profits At All

Hello Ed,

A trading system may pyramid on intervals when the price moves in one of two directions; I find that one may stop each position separately without exiting the whole line of positions.

By not exiting the whole line of positions; this allows for more profits to accumulate in case a trend happens. In case a trend doesn’t happen, open positions would close at their stops.

This means that one may not take small profits if a reversal happens, one would close all open positions only at their stops; this loss is the price for keeping the whole line of positions open when a big trend happens.

Now of course taking profits would also be related to you profit / loss ratio, which means that sometimes you would suffer big losses along the way, that when big profits come in they would only approximately cover the big losses, at that point its good to break-even or to give it another chance by placing the exit below the break-even point.

All theories seem to work pretty well, at least in theory.

You might like to provide some concrete test results to show how your principles improve system test results.

Concrete Theory

Clip: http://www.precast.org/

publications/mc/2004_janfeb/

Mon, 8 Aug 2005

Wants to Visit

My wife and I will be vacationing in North Shore Tahoe August 26-30. I'd like to meet you, buy you a cup of coffee, and thank you for the time you spend helping others achieve their dreams.

Thank you for your support.  I'm not much of a coffee drinker.

I like to ride my bicycle & play music. I wonder if you might consider these activities instead.

Mon, 8 Aug 2005

System Tests

To fulfill my commitment to my fellow breathers, I have attached back-tested results of strategies for the instruments I intend to trade. This is an ongoing R&D effort for me. This is the most recent data for a selected number of strategies out of a number of strategies I have tested. I still need to incorporate position sizing and optimize stop (and trailing stop) limits. Any comments are welcome.

You might be able to enhance your report by providing some detail.

In particular you might consider:

Defining the system you use.

Demonstrating how your system generates some trades.

Demonstrating how you derive your tabular results from those trades.

Explaining how you are able to get any results at all without some form of position sizing and stop placement.

See Trading System Project (above) for more.

Sun, 7 Aug 2005

Continuous Contracts


Ed,

I ponder your recent notes on continuous contracts for a couple of days now, and I have some thoughts.

I notice that you examine the type of continuous contract that I think of as forward-adjusted. That is, you splice the expiring contract month to the new month by adjusting the prices of the new month contract to close the gap representing the cost-of-carry (and other differences) between the contracts.

Another widely used way to create a continuous contract is by the back-adjusting method. It is the same as forward adjusting except the expiring month prices are adjusted (up for contango markets, down for backwardation markets) to bring them in line with the new front contract.

An experiment shows that each method produces the same kind of downward
bias on a long term chart that you note. This is logical since each method removes the spread between the spliced contracts upon each contract roll. The main difference is that when you back-adjust recent prices match the actual futures contract price, and when you forward-adjust the earliest part of the continuous series matches the historical contract price.

The question of splicing method aside, one question to ask is: "Does the adjusted series show a downward bias, or does the non-adjusted series show an upward bias in comparison to what a trader would actually make trading an outright futures position?"

It seems that if the adjusted series has a downward bias due to eliminating price differences that a trader cannot capitalize on, that series is more representative of the actual market experience of a trader than a non-adjusted series.

The question I don't resolve yet is whether a trader can or cannot capitalize on the spread between the contract months with an outright (non-spread) futures position.

If a trader can profit by the spread only by putting on a multi-delivery position, I wonder if there is a way to do this that is not inconsistent with an outright trend trade position?

I also wonder how different the results from a continuous contract test are from one that uses actual individual contract data assuming the trading rules, data, roll algorithms, etc. are identical? This is a test I'd like to perform. I don't currently have software that tests individual contracts.

Traders generally trade a nearby delivery and roll it forward just before maturity.

Unless your trading system employs the absolute value of the futures contract, continuous contracts provide a pretty good emulation of this process.

See TSP, above.

Sun, 7 Aug 2005

Joe Arpaio

Joe Arpaio seems to feel that strict rules serve the community. 

I wonder if the system might help accelerate prisoner rehabilitation by encouraging formation of Tribes.

If prisoners learn to untie their k-nots and find the positive intentions for their feelings, they might not have to act out in socially unacceptable ways.

Sheriff Joe

A disciplinarian

in the strict sense of the word.

Clip: http://www.rebnora.com/

Sun, 07 Aug 2005

Ordering the Steps

Toward Building a Trading System

Chief Ed,

Is there an optimal order in which to execute the steps in developing a complete and robust trading system? Do the TSP pages depict this optimal order?

I'm wondering if the risk management aspect is best addressed first, in isolation, with a focus on tuning property values (such as max portfolio heat) to be in harmony with the risk tolerance, temperament, feelings about risk etc of the individual trader.

I'm thinking that the optimal risk management variables pertain more to
the trader than any specific trading system the trader may develop and utilize.

Let's say the the bet size, per-trade risk, portfolio heat etc are mathematically optimized for generating profit in a subject system.

You can follow along with TSP, above, and see the steps I follow. 

You might have some fancy footwork that works better for you.

Most Dances

and System Development Projects

proceed

one step at a time

and by repeating the same steps

over and over, again and again.

Clip: https://www.scandic-hotels.fi/

assets/SC/cms/preview/site_images/

images/size_h/fitness_health_leisure/

DanceSteps_H.jpg

Sat, 6 Aug 2005

Wants to Attend Workshop


Good afternoon Ed,

I have read your book, and I am interested in attending a fall 2005 workshop. I understand you are planning a workshop for London. I would prefer Reno, but am willing to travel to London. Either way count me in.

I would appreciate acknowledgement of receipt of this e-mail and an update
as to the status of the fall workshop.

Keep an eye on this site for Workshop news.

Sat, 6 Aug 2005

Removing Time From Trading

Hello Ed,

I found that we may separate time from trading, which means that we could trade only the price; therefore we measure the price only with its self and not against a time frame. In order to measure the price, we can define its movement into fixed intervals, either moving up or down.

Since there is no such chart I am creating a new kind of chart that is not restricted by time; it is purely made of price.

I have drawn a sample of this chart manually (see attached); it took me 7 hours to create it! I don’t think I can create this chart manually every time; therefore I am going to use some of the profits that may come from the system I am currently trading and pay a programmer to do it, I know some programmers in India and I can get very cheap prices there.

The main benefit of this chart is that it will not register a new bar unless there is a reversal; this means that if we create two of this chart on the same security using two deferent interval measures and create a simple moving average for each, the moving average cross over will not happen in sideway markets because unless there is a big change in price this chart will not register it, therefore moving averages can run along without touching.

Still working on it, will let you know if I ever find something interesting.

Your method seems similar to point-and-figure charting.

I do not follow your argument about how your method avoids whipsaws. 

You might consider conducting some simulations to develop your point.

Point and Figure Chart

The X Axis

depends on price action,

not on time.

Clip: http://www.dundas.com/Products/

Chart/Gallery/Images/40/

Point%20and%20Figure.jpg

Sat, 06 Aug

Inevitable Transfer


Dear Ed,

I just had a great time reading about the methods you use to promote growth
and self discovery.

The concepts of integration of feelings, "Law of Inevitable Transfer" and so forth have a great many parallels in psycho analytic relief of depression, anxiety and psycho somatic conditions.

In fact the concept of Sender and Receiver is also seen in the analytic setting, and the "Law of Inevitable Transfer" is what analysts call "counter-transference." The use of free association is also very important.

I think it is greatly fascinating to see to areas develop to what appears to be a nearly identical method of assisting and

integrating new patterns of existence.

It makes me think that there is a universal tendency for us to require human contact to grow, and disregarding advice and pressure as to achieve an outcome.

Just an observation.

I do not know about the law of inevitable transfer, except as it relates to taxation.

Transference indicates feelings a client develops towards a therapist.

Counter-transference refers to feelings a therapist develops towards a client.

In TTP we do not employ the classic therapist-patient geometry.  We have one sender and many receivers so transference rarely appears.

Magnetic Transference

The magnet below

appears to transfer its magnetism

to the steel ball above.

Clip: http://www.glowco.us/images/

magnetic%20force%20transference.jpg

Fri, 5 Aug 2005

Wants to Change Boss

Mr. Seykota

Being a fan of the Market Wizards books, coupled with visiting the turtle trader website, I just wanted to pass along my thoughts about also sharing the belief about psychology and trading ... It is highly correlated!

I also believe that it comes down to a number and psychology.

If only I could have gotten my ex-boss to spend a little more time developing his psychology, or changing it, developing a philosophy or system, try my system, I would still have a job. I tried to change him but, with losing my job, I failed!

Thanks for being so open to fans of the Wizards. Sharing knowledge and experience always gives me a chance to keep learning, which I really enjoy!

You might consider taking your desire to change others into TTP as an entry point.

 Trying to Change Someone Else

can be a full-time drama.

Experiencing the feeling

of wanting to change someone else

can transform the relationship.

Clip: http://www.sentex.net/

~sardine/cartoons/000017.html

Fri, 5 Aug 2005

Intensions = Results?

Hi Chief,

Tell me more about intensions=results?

My proclamation a year and half ago was to be a happy, profitable trader.

Its not happening, this is the worst year I've every had trading. Started trading in 81, trading full time the last 3 years. Studied, when to seminars, read, followed guru's, nothing is working.

Batting average is under 10% this year. If I'm buying, its like the whole world starts selling, I'm down from the start, I don't even get a chance to manage the trade. Its not 3 strikes and I'm out, they call me out, when I walk on the on deck circle.

Its 2 steps forward and 4 back. I went to the closest tribe meeting last spring, [5 1/2 hour drive], my snap shot was to be a happy, profitable trader.

I'm a miserable, unhappy trader. Intensions=results. REALLY? You say everybody gets what they want from the markets. I don't want to feel this way.

I have been seeing a shrink the past 14 months. He is familiar with the TTP. You explained last week that's not the same as going to a tribe meeting.

After 35 visits with him, I'm face down in the mud, the lowest I've ever been. I'm listed in your directory, I want to start a tribe, but have not had any responses in 16 months.

Please tell me everything you know about intensions=results and doing it myself.

PS. This is the second time I typed this letter. I spent an hour typing the first one, had it completely done, left my computer for a minute, come back and Outlook Express had closed down on its own, losing your letter. That's exactly how my life's been going this year.

Thanks for listening.

Your results indicate a pattern.

When you accept that your results indicate your real intentions, you may be able to untie some of your k-nots and acquire different intentions and results.

Complainers

are typically very clever

about pretending

that they are not responsible

for the results they get.

Clip: http://clampettstudio.com/images/

archives/frizfreleng/FF1014-Anticipation.jpg

Thu, 4 Aug 2005

Stuck in DIM


Ed Says: You might think indecisiveness is a good thing ... then again, you might like to think about it some more.

Maybe TTP Can Help You

to get in touch
with what you want
Then again, maybe it can't

Hi Ed!

I have been treading water for more than a month since I last got in contact with you about my indecisiveness, and just enjoying not making any effort to decide anything until I got clear signals.

Now I have the expectation of a signal coming up soon. It may or may not be what I wish it to be and there's no way to tell the future. Yet I am anxious for it, I feel strong emotions about it and feel tempted to anticipate it.

More precisely I suffer out of anticipation.

FAQ is most effective as a forum in which practitioners can share experiences using TTP. 

It is least effective as a source of advice or therapy to support the DIM (Do It Myself) process.

You might consider joining or starting  a Tribe, and then taking your indecision, expectation and suffering as entry points to TTP.

Experiencing Anticipation

can help locate

its positive intention.

Clip: http://www.jimriegelphoto.com/

Pages/pgbaloon.html

Thu, 4 Aug 2005

Mind / Body Therapy

Hello Ed,

On the recommendation of a friend I visited an individual who was a practitioner of what he called "mind-body therapy."

He interviewed me for about 10 minutes about my current life situation, demographic information, occupation, sexual orientation, marital status etc. He then spent about 10 minutes on family-of-origin issues. Was I a happy child? How many sibs? What were my parents like?

He then had me lie down and he made certain statements, such as: "you wish your father had loved you more". He made these statements blandly, without emotion.

After waiting a minute he then inquired about and physical sensations I might be feeling. Sometimes I felt twitching in my legs, other times my back might tighten. After several of these statements, he had me just lie quietly and after about 5 minutes

I had an enormous upwelling of emotion (sadness) and I started to sob uncontrollably. I felt quite embarrassed by my inability to control this response and it was quite unexpected.

I left the appointment shaken, and puzzled by the experience. I'd like to tell you that I went back and courageously worked through some deeper issues, but truthfully I never went back as the whole experience frightened me.

The process you describe sounds like the early stages of TTP.

In TTP, once we get the sender active and into process, we make sure to get him all the way to the Zero Point before we conclude the process.

Otherwise, he may leave the process active and go out and induce dramas in order to try to complete the experience.

Therapists who end sessions basis a 50-minute hour, irregardless of the patient's emotional state, may be setting the patient up for acting out.

Fifty-Minute Watch

Just the thing for psychologists

who want to shrink the time.

Clip: http://www.philosophersguild.com/

index.lasso?page_mode=

Product_Detail&item=0127

Thu, 4 Aug 2005

The New Stock Effect


Ed,

I have found that some data vendors are late to add newly listed stocks to their databases. Therefore it is possible to miss buy signals since a stock may not exist in the vendors database at the time a screen is run (the stock is added many days or weeks later with it’s full price history).

Nice Observation.  See TSP, above.

A Newborn

might not appear

in the public records

until well after his birthday.

Clip: http://people.atg.com/

~dianac/twins/birthpix.html