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May
15-20, 2004
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Questions
(Quotes
from Ed in Red)
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Answers
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Wed, 19 May 2004
May 7-9 TTP
Workshop Follow-Up
Hi Ed:
Thanks for the [attendance] list and the wonderful, productive weekend
workshop.
Quite a surprise from what I expected. I'm getting good feedback ... on my
increased ability to clarify my emotions and respect them (and me) enough to
express them.
Less anxious in
trading arena too.
Kudos.
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OK.
For more follow-up see the link on the Workshop page.
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Wed, 19 May 2004
Toxic Parents
I find that the book is difficult to read. The fact that I have trouble
staying on task lets me know how important it is for me to stay with it. (My
experience with TTP is invaluable to this process.)
I find myself unable to address many of the issues and questions put forth
in the book because I conveniently block most of my childhood out of my
mind- I remember only brief flashes.
The book brings up a lot of deep feelings and provides a fertile field of
issues to take to tribe.
Thanks for recommending it!
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Your
tribe can help you locate and experience k-nots you don't even know you
have.

It
takes a Team
to
raise a feeling.
Clip: http://www.uwgb.edu/
anthro/gallery/team.jpg
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Wed, 19 May 2004
FAQ
Hi Ed!
You made a good point when you said "Talking about it is not the same
as experiencing it."
If we go on in
that direction I begin to believe that everything that is said in moods of
irritation, frustration, anger, and so on, are actually dramas.
Communication with
others should only consist when there is positive intention, otherwise it is
best felt and experienced by myself.
The following question will of course be how it is possible for the TTP to
work as good as it does when the TT-process is to "talk about it".
Shouldn't it be
better to just experience the feeling instead of telling the whole TT about
it since it transforms into a drama then? (I mean if you have the discipline
to experience it instead of avoiding it by yourself)
You think I try to do everything too much by myself. That might be correct
and perhaps I should examine the big responsibility I put on myself, but who
can be blamed but myself, and to what purpose should I involve other persons
when you have told me what to do?
You really opened my eyes when you said that feeling should be experienced,
because I understand I've been avoiding them for quite so me time. I didn't
understand that it was so important to experience them. My view was that
since it hurts it must be negative, but now I have a completely different
view about it.
I recall that my family always wanted me to be happy all the time, almost
as if I wasn't allowed to feel sad or angry. Since then I have always
found distractions to avoid the hard feelings, not knowing I was just
pushing it further on, and still have to go around with it pushing me down.
I like your statement in the pollinator page; "The
nature of stuck feelings is that the feeling that run your life are the
feelings you don't want to feel".
That is exactly
the way I feel! For me the big problem was that I used the wrong model.
Nobody has ever explained with such simplicity and straight forward way how
to get the cure as you have done. Now I know it's constructive to
experience the feelings, whatever it is, so I simply do that and I am more
free than ever.
Is this exercise only needed for traders (losing traders) or do everyone
need this? I think this process can help a lot of people with psychological
problems. I consider your therapeutic way to be much more right to the
problem than common therapy since it is natural. I think this will grow!
What's the status of your book? I would like to read it when it's finished,
but you seem to be a little unspecific about it due to earlier questions.
Kind regards,
|
You
seem to have a good grasp of TTP.
My
book seems to be assuming its own identity and demanding more
intention.

Dusty
Word Processor
Clip: http://www.squeep.com/~fek/
misc/sepia-backgrounds/
writing-2.png
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Tue, 18 May 2004
Follow-Up to Stock Correlation
Ed says:
If you really have the ability to outguess the indices, you are better off
just trading index futures.
My question was unclear, I wasn't referring to outguessing the indices.
Ed says (on Wed, 19 Feb 2003):
You might like what Old Turkey has to say in Reminiscences of a Stock
Operator.
Firstly, thank you for referring me to Old Turkey. It is a great
recommendation. One line that constantly comes to my mind is ...
I think it was a long step forward in my trading education when I realized
at last that when old Mr. Partridge kept on telling the other customers,
"Well, you know this is a bull market !" he really meant to tell
them that the big money was not in the individual fluctuations but in the
main movements -- that is, not in reading the tape but in sizing up the
entire market and it's trend. (Page 68)
My revised question ... Do you find it important to size up the entire
market and it's trend before going long individual stocks?
I understand that the entire market trend and an individual stock's trend
are two different things, I might be unclear.
Thanks for your help and generosity
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I
trade stock indices according to their trends.
I
trade individual stocks according to their trends.
Sometimes
they trend together and sometimes they don't.

Swingers
sometimes
swing together
and
sometimes they don't.
Fundamentalists
who
want reasons for things
sometimes
have trouble
formulating
clear questions.
Clip: http://www.travelswithtigger.com/
mam0999/swings.jpg |
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Tue, 18 May 2004
Ed's Book
If I had a word processor like that I'd forget about the
book. You may need someone to remove your distractions before your book can
be completed. Good Day
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OK.

Rusty
Word Processor
Clip: http://www.law.umkc.edu/
faculty/projects/ftrials/hiss/typewriter.jpg |
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Mon, 17 May 2004
Stock Correlation
Hi Ed,
It seems to me that most stocks correlate very highly in terms of direction
/ trend in any given period.
As an example,
over the last 12 month period, there were times when as many as 70% of all
NASDAQ stocks were above their individual 50 day moving averages (50 is just
an arbitrary number).
Do you find it
important to determine the general market trend (the trend of the market
indices) and only trade in the same direction as that trend or is that just
complicating the process of simple trend following?
regards |
If
you really have the ability to outguess the indices, you are better off just
trading index futures.
Hybrid
systems invite complexity and provide lots of Fred room.

Hybrids
may
demonstrate
interesting
complications
Clip: http://www.geekjosh.com/other.htm |
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Mon, 17 May 2004
Book
Mr. Seykota:
Further to my e-mail earlier this month and your subsequent response, can
you give me an idea of when you expect to complete the book and have it
available for purchase?
Regards |
Thank
you for your interest in my book. I am working on it with my trusty
word processor. I expect to publish sometime this year.

Trusty
Word Processor
Clip: http://www.asahi-net.or.jp/
~sa3c-od/writing.jpg |
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Mon, 17 May 2004
Relative Importance of
Trend Following
System Components
Ed,
Based on your experience, would you please rank the following from most to
least important with respect to the profitability of trend following
systems: entry rules, exit rules, money management, diversification,
optimization.
Thanks,
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The
elements in a trend following system, like the organs in the body, all work
together or the system fails.

In
Many Systems
the
Important Organ
is
the one
that
isn't working properly.
Clip: http://www.ha.org.hk/qeh/
images/anatomy.gif
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Mon, 17 May 2004
Can't Feel Anything
Ed says: "Perhaps one way for you to become a
more effective converter might
be for you to experience some of your feelings, like poverty, frustration,
anger, etc."
If I'm not feeling them now, then I don't know when I will start feeling
them!
Ed says: "If you carry a strong vision around,
such as "not getting off the ground," your vision might
self-fulfill as a way for Fred to get you to feel some of your k-nots."
It will self-fulfill because it is dependent on other people. I have
absolutely no doubts about my abilities. And if it were only dependent on
me, and I got my true reward for my efforts, then I would be one of the most
successful trend followers in the world. Unfortunately the world doesn't
work like that.
Ed says "Your post also reminds me that people
who run big dramas, do so to justify their k-nots - so they have little use
for, even resent, advice."
There was no advice in your comment. If you had said to me "Your system
is wrong and needs to be improved in this way" or "you need to
approach this type of person in this way" or "I found this
approach was good for raising funds" etc etc then I would be all ears.
Instead, you chose
to use the derogatory phrase "hit on people." Use of such a
phrase, suggests to me, that you don't know your own philosophy. Are you a
Capitalist or a Communist? |
You
might consider contacting a Tribe in your area.

Ok,
I'm telling you one more time
I
am not, I repeat,
not,
not, not, not, not
feeling
anything.
Clip: http://www.epc-tv.com/funstuff.html
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Sun, 16 May 2004
Tribe Application
Ed,
I now have a better understanding of TTP and wish to start a tribe in
Bristol, UK.
Sincerely, |

Welcome
Bristol,
UK

Bristol
Clip: http://www.bris.ac.uk/university/
maps/bristol-uk-small.html |
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Sun, 16 May 2004
TTP and Trading Performance
Hi Ed,
I am reading how the TTP improves ones performance ...
I know that there is more to good trading than the return, but do you
think that there is a limit to how high you can go?
As a matter of fact, what are in your opinion (and experience) the
characteristics of a good (to You) trend-following system in terms of return
and drawdown (annualized)?
I have a system -
30% annually and 35% drawdown in testing - robust in most markets, in some
doing poorly, but usually in positive. I am not committing bigger money to
it, while I am still searching for a better one – but maybe I am expecting
to much? Maybe it’s already good? |
FAQ
does not publish specific parameters or reveal personal information. See
Ground Rules.
For
anecdotal indications of effects of TTP on trading, read through FAQ and,
recently, the Workshop Testimonials on the Workshop Page.
The
difference between various optimizations of your system is likely much less
than the difference between sticking to it and not sticking to it - and
that's where TTP comes in.
Testing
the limits of how high you can go might be a setup for drama per: the higher
the up they rise, the lower the down they fall.

Icarus
Despite
warning from his father, Daedalus, to not fly too close to the sun, as it
would melt his wings, Icarus grows exhilarated by the thrill of flying and
gets careless.
His
wing wax melts and he suffers a huge drawdown.
Clip:
http://www.dsgordon.com/
murals/icarus.jpeg |
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Sun, 16 May 2004
Poverty
Ed says: "When your mission becomes about serving
others by managing their money,
rather than about avoiding experiencing poverty by hitting on rich people,
you might become attractive to serious investors."
So now I'm "hitting on rich people" eh? I can't do enough can I?
Isn't 4 years devotion of my life, to build this system enough?
"My philosophy, in essence, is the concept of man as an heroic being,
with ... productive achievement as his noblest activity (Rand)"
Have I no right to try and turn the massive amount of energy that I have
expended, into money?
"Money rests on the axiom that every man is the owner of his mind and
his effort. Money allows no power to prescribe the value of your effort
except the voluntary choice of the man who is willing to trade you his
effort in return. Money permits you to obtain for your goods and your labor
that which they are worth to the men who buy them (Rand)"
In the same way that I knew I could write a trend following system ... I
also know that I am destined to never get it off the ground.
That leaves me in
a very dangerous position ... because I am unemployable and have no money.
I have no
escape, except that offered by Rand - "Give me liberty or give me
death."
Maybe you should
think about that when you're publishing your responses. Some of us put
massive effort into our lives ... and end up with nothing through no fault
of their own.
I suggest that you take your need to denigrate and humiliate people into
your next tribe meeting. |
I
support converting energy into other forms, such as money.
Perhaps
one way for you to become a more effective converter might be for you to
experience some of your feelings, like poverty, frustration, anger, etc.
If
you carry a strong vision around, such as "not getting off the
ground," your vision might self-fulfill as a way for Fred to get
you to feel some of your k-nots.
FAQ
does not tell people what they should do.
Thank
you for your suggestion to take another look at my own feelings about
denigration and humiliation.
Your
post also reminds me that people who run big dramas, do so to justify their
k-nots - so they have little use for, even resent, advice.

Patrick
Henry
Well
known for the phrase,
Give
Me Liberty or Give me Death.
Some
people might confuse
Patrick
Henry with Ayn Rand,
who
also sports old-timey hair
and
way cool glasses.
Clip: http://www.loc.gov/exhibits/
religion/f0505s.jpg |
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Sat, 15 May 2004
Missing
Something
Hello Ed,
While eyeballing many charts daily, I can't help but feel, I'm missing
something regarding the terrain, dimension, ambiance, and overall
structure of the data I'm perceiving ... I feel, at some level, these
relationships get washed away through a persistent and ever feeble
perceptual filter.
How can I get a
better feel for these qualities I just mentioned?
I remember, sometime ago, you suggested I arrange bi-variable system test
results in a 3-D pattern. My question now is how can I go about producing
3-D graphical representations of tabular market data outputs?
P.S. the current ambiance of the one dimensional graphical tabular data
outputs I'm observing are characterized by feelings of low-key
lighting, deep shadows, and hidden dimensions ... |
Terrain,
dimension, ambiance are not so much properties of data as they are
interpretations that you bring to data.
You
might consider taking your feelings about missing something to Tribe.
You
might consider re-writing "are characterized by" in SVO-p to
assist you in discovering just who is doing the characterizing.
If
you want assistance with specific system design, data arrangement,
back-testing, etc., see Consulting at the bottom of the Ground Rules Page. |
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Sat, 15 May 2004
Missing
a Tee Time
Dear Mr. Seykota,
Please accept my apologies for missing the "Trading Tribe" session
last Thursday. I run a program ... for 13 and 14 year old [golfers] ...
While my intention was for them to finish their playing portion after 7
holes, I could not overlook one of my student's need to play all nine
holes, since it was his desire to do so at the time. He was playing superbly
and wished to complete all nine.
I must as a rule be there when they finish, as they are my
responsibility and any shirking of this duty would be unacceptable for
management and me personally. I could have made it by 7:30, but I decided
it would be more appropriate to miss the session altogether, rather than
intrude in mid-session.
If the consequences for my absence are harsh, I accept them, as I consider
my presence there a privilege and not a right.
Please advise. |
You
might have a look at your feelings about setting limits and keeping
agreements.
Breaking
rules may lead you to consequences that bring up feelings Fred wants you to
experience.
If
you wish to apply for re-admission to the tribe, email evidence that you can
follow the requirements (see Directory Page).

Golf
Many
ways to play it.
Some
people use it to teach children
that
it's not OK to break agreements
even
if you wish to play a few more holes.
http://www.markovic.sk/big/golf.jpg |
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Sat, 15 May 2004
Accepting
Uncertainty
Ed,
Your response from your FAQ section, Mar 20, 2003:
There is no math to get you out of having to
experience uncertainty.
If you have trouble with the feeling of uncertainty, then instead of feeling
it, you wind up cutting back and / or cranking up your trading at just the
wrong times.
If you want to trade consistently, without the swings in confidence, then
you have to learn to accept, even celebrate, the feeling of uncertainty.
Brilliant IMO. The uncertainty issue caused me to "optimize" my
trading approach for several years, until I came to this conclusion. It has
made a huge difference.
Terrific job on the Trading Tribe site. Many thanks.
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Most
Un-Certainly.
If
you stay in the moment, you can know the price or the trend - not both.

Werner
Heisenberg (1901 - 1976)
Photo
circa 1927
Heisenberg's
lively discussions with Albert Einstein, Erwin Schrodinger, Louis de Broglie,
Niels Bohr and others leads to the Principle of Indeterminacy, now The
Heisenberg Uncertainty Principle:
The
more precisely
you
determine position,
the
less precisely
you
can determine momentum
in
this instant,
and
vice versa.
-- Heisenberg, Uncertainty Paper, 1927
Clip: http://www.aip.org/history/
heisenberg/p08.htm |
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