Questions

(Quotes from Ed in Red)

Answers

Thu, 15 Jan 2004

Question on Risk Management Article

Mr. Seykota,

I enjoyed your risk management article.

Regarding the coin-toss example of Fixed bet vs. Fixed-Fraction bet:

I am confused by the 2:1 payoff for the winning coin toss, vs. a 1:1 loss for a
losing coin toss.

The rules read [my comment]: “Let's say the rules for the game are: (1) we start with $1,000 [OK], (2) we always bet that heads come up [OK], (3) we can bet any amount that we have left [OK], (4) if tails comes up,
we lose our bet [OK], (5) if heads comes up, we do not lose our bet; instead, we win twice as much as we bet [Confused], and (6) the coin is fair and so the probability of heads is 50% [OK].”

I agree with the bet payoff language from a cash flow illustration:

You can bet your $10 without taking it out of your pocket. 

If you win, you receive $20 and you can put that in your pocket, If you lose, you take $10 out of your pocket.

So, after one $10 bet, you wind up with either $1020 or $990 in your pocket.

Pocket Protector

To protect your pocket,

make sure you understand the game

before you bet.

Clip: http://www.craigslist.org/

Thu, 15 Jan 2004

Thu, 15 Jan 2004

You might like to consider attending some Tribe meetings in your area.  If you wish private consulting, with me,  see the Ground Rules.

Thu, 15 Jan 2004

Resolutions and Other Thoughts


Dear Ed,

Below are my comments for the newsletter. I have been going through a tough stretch personally and could not send this earlier. I hope you are well and again truly appreciate your intellectual honesty in developing the Tribe concept.

Date: Thu, 15 Jan

Dear Ed -

I am writing this to you not hoping for any answers but to share with other viewers of your web site how the principles of the Trading Tribe have begun to change my life.

First some interesting coincidence:

1) When I wrote my New Years resolution and proof read, my whole body started shaking like I was having a seizure.

2) I got into a an argument with my father over a trade (I trade his account). Afterwards while walking down the street, I thought to myself "You don't scream at the ones you love". At that exact moment, there was the huge sound of breaking glass.

Someone walking next to me had dropped a mirror. I kept walking and was thinking how I hadn't actually screamed at my father in the last argument because it was via email. I thought how actually I was improving my relations with him over the last few years.

At that exact moment, an errant soccer ball was headed my way down the street. I was always bad at soccer in grade school so I was a little nervous about returning the ball. I kicked it back perfectly. I kept walking and thinking about how I need to step outside myself and observe myself from a 3rd persons perspective like having a twin follow me around giving me feedback.

At that exact moment I almost slammed into some person walking by me. Our noses literally came within 1 inch of each other as I thought the word twin

Other things this site has me thinking about. Whenever there is drama now, I always ask myself, "What is Fred trying to tell CM." How does this relate to the drama of my youth where I was bullied much of the time and my distorted views of friendship and loyalty. I feel like the Aha moment is coming any day now.

I am now a lot more conscious of my emotions of trading. Whenever I lose, I feel like I am sitting in a Jacuzzi of warm urine.

And when I am winning, it feels better than sex.

I try to actually feel these feelings. Generally I cut my losses at 7% and take profits at 25%. Within that range, my emotions are always yo-yoing around. I realized last night that this seemed unproductive.

Thu, 15 Jan 2004

Jargon

Dear Mr. Seykota 

I am very interested in trend-following systems, but I have to master the jargon first.

So, what does "on stop close only" mean?

Does it mean to enter a position at the close of the day when the signal occurs or at the opening of the following day?

A stop-close-only order is a stop order that you may place before the close, and that activates only during the close.

You might consider reading several books on the basics of trading - to learn about the business as well as the jargon.

See: http://www.turtletrader.com/

Wed, 14 Jan 2004

Judges

Ed,

Please help me understand judges better.

What are signs a sender has a judge active during a TTP session?

What is/are the step/s to experience the judge?

What if there is another judge? How do I tell another judge is on top of the sender and how do I address that next judge?

How/when do I encourage movement in a judging hierarchy as a receiver?

Lastly, how/when do I encourage the sender to experience his/her happy judge? What are some signposts that the sender reaches the happy judge?

Thank you for your help.

Let's say you have a stuck feeling.

Then you also have a judge, who accounts for the stuck-ness, who judges the feeling to be bad, so you do not want to experience it.

The judge is just another feeling, so if you experience the judge, he  disappears, and then you can go back and experience your original feeling more easily, without judgment.

This may happen so quickly, that you might notice the judge feeling and the original feeling disappear simultaneously.

If you have trouble experiencing the judge, then you likely have a grumpy judge, one who has another judge, judging him.

You may have a whole hierarchy of judges, all judging down, keeping your original feeling stuck, at the bottom of the stack.

If you keep working your way up the stack of judges, eventually you find a judge who really likes being a judge, one who has no judges judging him.  This is your happy judge.  He sits at the top of the whole stack. You typically have very little trouble experiencing the happy judge.

As soon as you do, the whole stack collapses.

Picking the Winner

of a beauty contest

is a job for a happy judge.

Clip: http://www.nephitimesnews.com/

0700/071900/winners.jpg

Wed, 14 Jan

Validating Other People's Feelings - Unexpected Results

Dear Ed,


I returned yesterday from my vacation in a beautiful paradisiacal beach called Natal, in Brazil. I enjoyed the time to relax and have a good time and also to experience a lot of feelings, which turned out to be a great way to relax even more (and also learn about myself, how I presently store feelings and the importance of their positive intentions).

I came back and read the last 20 days of FAQ that I missed. One e-mail caught up my attention: the one that a fellow tell us that he tried to go to the US from Canada but the border police stopped him from doing so.

I want to share with the FAQ readers one interesting event in this vacation.

Before that, I shall explain the following information: when I go to the beach, I usually take only the driver's license + the rented vehicle's documents + a predefined amount of cash to spend at the beach (not the whole wallet with credit card etc).

The problem is that in one of the days, back in the hotel I forgot to put the driver's license + vehicle's documents back in my wallet and went to dinner at night. In the way back a police officer stopped me and asked for the car's documents, which were in the hotel (0.1 mile from the police post). I told him the truth: I had negligently forgotten the documents in the hotel. (intentions = results, since I wanted to get lazy during that vacation. To forget the documents was clearly a consequence of my intentions in that vacation and I was fully accepting the responsibility)

Now, here's where the story gets important: The police officer was not, in any way, worried about the forgotten documents when he spoke to me; he consistently talked about his authority and how he ran that highway in his own manner clearly acting out a drama regarding his authority.

I decided to hear him fully in a very honest way validating his intention to act his authority in the highway that he controlled. I did not question him in any way. I just let him speak about his feelings. As I validated his feeling of wanting to exercise his authority, he soon began to change his facial _expression to a peaceful one. He slowly dissolved the drama and even started talking in a very smooth way. I noticed that his shoulders + trapezoid were less tight. The result was amazing and unexpected: as I was acting like a receiver, the police officer was able to fully experience his feeling of wanting to punish me in order to state his authority. (My personal conclusion)

Soon, he began to acknowledge and tell me that it is normal for tourists who come to his city in the summer seeking rest and a good time to forget things in the hotel because they are more relaxed.

The unexpected result: he decided not to give me the ticket since the hotel was so near, it was late at night and I was with my girlfriend just enjoying his city. Then he kindly (opposed to the first approach) asked me to go back to the hotel and bring in the documents just to make sure the car had no problems with the local police. I went back to the hotel, took the documents, gave it to him and it was ok. When I was back his _expression was clearly relaxed (in comparison to the first minute I saw him) - benefit of experiencing his strong feelings.

That experience was also good for me. I learned that it is very positive to validate other people's feelings (not because of the leniency regarding the ticket, but because of what I learned in that process of talking to the police officer the way I did). I also had an AHA and felt very comfortable with myself and, in that moment, I felt the wisdom that arose from that interaction with the police officer. If I also decided to act my dramas to the police officer, that night could have been a disaster to my vacation, but it turned out to be a great enriching experience. (my personal feedback)

Ed, thank you very much. I wish you and your family a very healthy and prosperous never-ending now moment of 2004!

Best regards,

Genipabu Beach - Natal - Brazil
Famous for wild buggy rides.

Yes.

Tue, 13 Jan 2004

Follow-up

see: Trading and Baseball


Dear Ed,

Yes, my previous post (Jan.6, Trading and Baseball) left off with a rather ambiguous question/remark. Let me try to rephrase in SVO-p:

"I wonder if I can relate effective trading to the above quote from Ted Williams?"

For example, I can think: "do not swing (enter) at any old pitch (trade). Wait for one you can hit (for a trade that fits your system's pattern).

Is that better in regards to SVO-p?

Also, regarding aha's ... I am due for my first hot seat soon and feel a bit nervous about not being able to "feel" my feelings or get an aha.

It's a churning tightness in my tummy that pushes up into my throat, and warm blood rising to my facial skin.

Does experiencing an aha mean you can suddenly connect a feeling to an old drama, much like the example from your page (below)? Or do aha's sometimes just involve the feeling of release with no "enlightenment" obvious?

Maybe I worry about details too much. Worry seems like it might be a good item to take into my first hot seat.

Aha example:

Art: Yes, that's it! It's that old belt, hitting me. Whew! (feeling a release of tension,
a sense of lightness, as in feeling light, happy, joyous; being in the "zone.")

Art: (later) Wow, I just see something else. I carry that old drama into my trading. I keep setting up situations in which I "get burned" and "get belted."

Yes, your feelings of worry, and your nervous feelings about going on to the hot seat might be good entry points.

The hot seat process is like trend following.  Keep going with the flow, and keep noticing and experiencing your feelings.

Concentrating on the AHA, as a goal, from the start, is like concentrating on physical release, as a goal, during lovemaking.

The real joy is in the process, as you, Fred, CM and your receivers all share an intimate journey. The AHA is a bit anticlimactic, something to enjoy in the afterglow.

Reminiscing about the AHA

is not the same as

fully experiencing the process.

Clip: http://www.movieclub.com/

spotlight/christie/christie.html

Tue, 13 Jan 2004

Hello Ed,

I wish to participate in starting a fund at a brokerage house. To convince the bosses I have my track record, few piles of back-tests and ... a translated version of TTP.

I am most grateful for you granting me the permission to use the material. I think every manager and client should have the possibility to join the tribe.

I conduct TTP with my closest family and manage to resolve ONE BIG drama: not
pissed at my daddy anymore !! Nevertheless, I do not feel THAT much better, seems I have many, many knots still in me. Yes, I can feel them in me ooooo yes...

I now change the subject;

Ed, are you an angel?

Do you ever consider promoting and helping the young and ambitious? Of course you do! That is what FAQ is all about, right? Do you ever feel that somewhere in this world are people who could be very, very happy indeed if you, well ... gave into management, say ... 1 million bucks for a good start and just watched them grow under your wings?

OK, here is the deal. You toss in, after me convincing you further, 1,000,000 USD into my fund. I multiply that by N>1.5 in a couple of years and take a tiny little 20% reward from net profits. Hey, you've got it all, right? I mean, what if I loose all of the money? Well, we can then take our feelings into TTP, I guess. Just kidding ... no harm done, I shall gladly present to you my system ... As you read this proposal, I strongly suggest that you consider me being a true believer that intentions = results. My intentions are to use other peoples money to make money!

If FAQ does not endorse such information, how can I reach you otherwise?

Best Regards,

To convince the bosses you have a track record, how about just show them your track record.

You may use the materials on this site for free, for non-commercial purposes only.  See ground rules.

Your intention seems to be to use other peoples money. To run this drama, you might consider hooking up with people who want their money used.

When your intention becomes to safeguard, protect and nurture other peoples' money, and to make a profit for other people, you might attract some serious capital.

You might consider taking your feelings of wanting to take money from people, as a starting point, into the process.

Going Around

Grabbing Other Peoples Assets

is a sign you still might be

acting like a baby.

Clip: http://laurenharman.tripod.com/

henry/images/nose.jpg

Tue, 13 Jan 2004

Causality


Hi Ed, I think maybe you will be intrigued by this.

http://myweb.cableone.net/

The Rube Goldberg device at the link seems to work once every 500 trials or so.

Seems about par for intricate devices, including fundamental analytics.

Rube Goldberg

famous for intricate designs

http://www.laventure.net/

tourist/good_sound.htm

Tue, 13 Jan 2004

Kelly Value:

Another Interpretation

I offer a thought for novices like myself.

Kelly Formula:
K = W - (1-W)/R
where:

W = historical win ratio (wins / total trades)
R = winning payoff rate
R is approximated by (average profit)/(absolute value of average loss)
= P/L

Using a little algebra:
K = W - (1-W)/(P/L)
K = W - (1-W)*(L/P)

then
K*P = W*P - (1-W)*L

The right hand side of this equation is the expected value of a trading system, E, since L is an absolute value.

Now, K*P = E. Resolving for the Kelly Value,

K = E/P.

This states that the Kelly value, the optimized bet size, can also be expressed as the ratio of the expected value of the trading system to the average profit of the system.

If I can come up with a trading system that has a positive expected value (E > 0), I can make a bet. Otherwise, don't bet! It also shows that unless I win 100% of the time (E = P), I will not bet the entire account no matter how small or infrequent the losses are.

The thought to offer is a different perspective on the Kelly value, even
though it still takes the same amount of work to calculate K as before.

Before deriving the alternate equation, I stared at the original Kelly formula, read Kelly's published paper, and did not understand how a bet could be optimized that way. CM was confused about the Kelly value. Fred warned that the Kelly formula shouldn't be trusted to optimize bet size. Having CM express K as E/P makes it clear for CM, since CM already understands E and P well. CM lets Fred know that the Kelly value is useful. Fred no longer warns CM about the Kelly value.

Regards from the [location] Tribe.

Note that, per your approximation,  if R = 2:1, R can just as well be 4:2, or 100:50.

So your notion, that R = P/L, allows

P & L to be any values with quotient = 2, so P is indefinite.

So your K = E/P, then, is indefinite

Your math seems to indicate: heavy betting for small P systems, infinite betting as P approaches zero.

Note: your defining wording about R, "R is approximated by"  is not in SVO-p. 

You give no S-ubject, no mention of exactly who is approximating. 

You might try re-writing your derivation in SVO-p, so as to identify who takes responsibility for inventing the approximation, what credentials he has as a mathematician.

-----

Fred does not provide analytics, such as a warning about optimizing bet size, in a logical conversational mode.

Fred shares experiences, typically as feelings, rarely as language or logic.

You might take your feelings of wanting to manage Fred, into the process.

Math is a Language

Some say pi r squared

and some say pies are round.

Clip: http://www.cde.ca.gov/

Tue, 13 Jan 2004

Great Trader

Hi Chief,

I wonder, what are the qualities of a great trader in your view?

Respects

I don't have a target set of qualities, toward which I aim my students. 

I intend for thems to find, within themselves, their own, special unique qualities, that support right livelihood, including their trading.

Shoot Arrows, Not People

toward the target.

Clip: http://www.jjwebwonders.com/

graphics/target/target.jpg

Tue, 13 Jan 2004

TTP

See: Starving for Attention
Date:  18:46:29 -0200


Ed Says:

Mon, 12 Jan 2004

Proposal allowing Indians to invest abroad

These days, futures contracts may have short-term price excursions of several thousand dollars per contract. 

A series of limit moves may run your  possible risk for one contract up to multiples of that. 

Thus, if you set your risk per trade to, say 1/2% of your equity, then allowing for a $5,000 loss would indicate an account size of about $1,000,000.

Note: many seasoned professionals consider risking 1/2% to be lively, 1% to be aggressive and 5% to be maniacal.

I do not wish to create or administer a pool or a partnership. 

If you can create and manage your group and present it as a single client, I might then consider it further, if you can also show me that you can ...

1. Properly manage a group of investors, including calculating proper allocation of profits and losses to the participants, and proper filing of tax statements.  Note: deposits and withdrawals by independent participants, at different times, during swings in portfolio value, may complicate the math.

2. Make sure the participants fully understand the highly risky nature of trading, and that losses are quite likely - and make sure that people put a lot less money at risk than they can afford to lose, both financially and psychologically.

3. Determine the amount of daily, monthly and yearly volatility you can handle - and determine a stop-out drawdown point (uncle point) for the entire portfolio.

4. Come up with a way to keep the participants on board, during both substantial drawdowns and occasional winning streaks

5. Make sure that participants realize that a trend-following money manager does not have reasons for a trade, or know why something is moving, or even care, and that he typically buys at highs and sells at lows, and gets lots of whipsaws.

If you can comply with all this, I might consider helping you locate an appropriate manager and strategy for your funds.

Will Rogers

1879 - 1935

Making money is easy.

You just buy some good stock

that's going up.

If it don't go up,

then don't buy it in the first place.

I'm Less interested in

the return on my money,

than the return of it.

Clip: http://www.lucidcafe.com/

Mon, 12 Jan 2004

Trend Following Book

Here's the cover of Mike Covel's new book.

How Great Traders Make Millions

In Up or Down Markets

Pearson / Prentice Hall

Clip: http://vig-fp.prenhall.com/

Mike Covel shares a wealth of information about trend following from his unique vantage point as the creator and manager of the comprehensive, and free, trader resource at:

www.turtletrader.com

Mon, 12 Jan 2004

Welcome!

Romsey

Hampshire, England

See Directory Page

Romsey

a little north of Southampton

Clip: http://www.britannia.com/travel/

Mon, 12 Jan 2004

Starving for Attention

See: Prefers DIM

There is more to it, Ed. I feel an urge to share my truth until I can accept it. FAQ provides me with a big audience.

For instance, I feel that buying new highs and selling new lows is a sound and valid trend following strategy. Yet, I feel this urge of telling it to somebody. The moment I proclaim it, I start to accept the truth.

Sharing thoughts in front of a large audience seems like an extension of your drama.

TTP sharing feelings in a small group is part of TTP.

You might consider taking your feelings about wanting attention to a Tribe meeting.

Scott Joplin

1868-1917

Hear The Entertainer

Clip & Midi: http://www.mfiles.co.uk/

other-midi.htm

Mon, 12 Jan 2004

Intention to Continue Hardball =

Hardball Continues


Hi Ed !

Thank you for the new subtleties in the hardball process at the recent tribe meeting. You said to take literally whatever comes up, and that we usually only clear enough away so that the target can be accomplished, while there is still other stuff going on.

In my heart I know there is, but I didn't get to it at the meeting. You say we can continue. [Name]'s intent is to continue, and so is mine.

So three days after the tribe meeting, the next layer erupts. I am five years old, lying face down on the floor having a tantrum, while my father is spanking me, trying to get me dressed to go to Sunday school. My mother is standing next to him, crying, asking him to stop. I can't see if I went to Sunday school that morning or not. I experience this intensely.

Several AHA's result:

1. I see how this is knot activates my dealings with authority figures, including the authorities involved in my target. I recall many instances when this knot governed my actions, and feel the judgments about them and the emotions connected to them now collapse.

2. Unexpectedly, I see how this knot creates confusion about whether I should notice my inner perceptions, or ignore them and follow outer authority. I fear if I follow inner perceptions again, a big somebody may punish me again. Safer to just black them out.

After about an hour these polarities resolve. I am done. There is nothing between me and the target.

Then the next layer erupts.

I perceive my mother worried about another miscarriage, and considering an abortion. I am afraid and confused. She regrets not bearing a child when she was younger.

The aha: This knot creates tentative feelings at crucial junctures during my life. Do I have the right to exist? Will unknown authorities terminate me? Maybe I should leave first, so they don't have a chance. I should stay curled up, ready to die. Why reach out, when I could die at any moment? Dark confusions which have no name, yet I clearly see how they cloud perception and inhibit action.

It's very late at night. I fall asleep. In the morning [my wife] mentions she dreamt she saw me at a meeting with some other men she didn't know. Later in the day, I notice my persistent cough is gone. Hmmm ...

rgds,

Spanking may include violation of personal boundaries, betrayal, loss of allies and physical pain.

Spanking may install self-protecting knots, that entrain a lifetime of self-perpetuating dramas, typically involving attractions to getting various types of spankings.

In this way, parents may compound naughty children into knotty ones.

One way to dissolve a knot, and the craving for the associating drama, is to allow Fred to fully share the experience with CM.

As Fred and CM integrate the experience, you may notice AHA's and reconstruction of personal boundaries.

That you are noticing AHA's indicates you, Fred and CM are on the path.

Installing a Knot

with the DIM hot seat process

One way to untie a knot

it to experience the event

intentionally.

Clip:

http://www.bodenheimer.com/reference

images/ernstvirginspankingchrist.jpg

Mon, 12 Jan 2004

TT in New Brunswick

Hi Ed,

May I have permission to start a Trading Tribe in Fredericton, New Brunswick, Canada.

Welcome!

Fredericton

New Brunswick, Canada

See Directory Page

New Brunswick

Fredericton

Clips: http://www.worldtimeserver.com/

images/maps/CA-NB.jpg

http://www.frederictontourism.ca/

Mon, 12 Jan 2004

Clear as Crystal

Dear Ed Seykota,

Now, I do the TTP with my wife (there are no groups nearby and I don't feel like starting one by myself, although I know that my wife and I constitute a "small" of TTP group).

It is amazing the difference between CM trying to analyze what is going on and Fred expressing himself.

For example, consciously I can't identify any judge and tend to say that "my feelings" are indifferent to me.

On the other hand, while doing the TTP with my wife I can see, as clear as crystal, all the judges along the way.

Thanks for your great insight and willingness to share the process.

Yes. Family = The Essential Tribe.

Tribe Meeting

Clip: http://www.psycho-ressources.com/

bibli/parle-moi.html

Sun, 11 Jan 2004

Urgent Mail

Dear Sir/Madam,

I have funds that I need transferred out using legal means but since I am still a serving government staff, I would not be able to do this on my own.

The amount that is involved is the sum of $22,000,000.00 USD. (20% of which is yours if you agree to help me).

I understand that you would be a bit worried about being a part of this transaction but I want you to understand that at no point would you need to give me your bank account information, it is the paying authority, that after confirming the ownership of the funds, that would ask you for the details of that nature and to this end, I would need you to open a new bank account that would be used for the purpose of this transaction only.

You are then required to forward the remaining balance (Minus the Interest, handling and tax clearance charges, which Will be offset by Us & Deducted from the transferred sum) to a nominated bank account in the Cayman Islands. I don't think I need to spell out the importance of Secrecy in this Matter considering the amount involved.

Let me state clearly here that the account that you would be providing does not need to have funds in it, it is only needed to be active and be able to receive funds. So, if I don't hear from you within three days I will assume you are not interested and will solicit for a new partner, but if you know you are interested let me know.

List your phone & fax Numbers so we may communicate with you. This is important as we would have to talk about the modalities of the transaction. You should also note that efforts are being made to make sure that everything is done legally and the final payment centre is in America, that is after all our documentations have been crossed checked and verified that everything is above board.

You would be dealing directly with the payment officials in America this I am making sure of for the sake of transparency.

Waiting to hear from you.

Regards,

You might consider taking your feelings of integrity and guilt into the process.

Alternatively, if you want to enroll others in your drama, you might send your photo, your physical address and phone number, along with your solicitation letter, over to the nice folks at the Justice Department.

FAQ Suggests Less Fraud

and More Fred

Part of the Art Form is Secrecy ...

 ... and part is the Urgent Request.

The Promoter's Clothing

Can Also Tip Off

the Astute Investor.

Investigate Before you Invest.

Click Here for Sleuthing Tune:

Some SCAM's

Have a Positive Intention

Clips:

http://www.cccsintl.org/

info/scamadds.html

http://iatservices.missouri.edu/

techknowledge/10-2002/security.html

http://www.usps.com/websites/

depart/inspect/nigwithg.htm

http://www.cccomm.net/images/

AtCCComm/prisoner_12.jpg

http://www.tudormagic.com/images/

scam/scam200pix.gif

Sat, 10 Jan 2004

The Good Thing and the Bad Thing

The good thing is:

"Successful trading has nothing to do with forecasting the market. It’s only a
numbers game: knowing the risk, knowing the odds, and placing your trades with
discipline. It's not so exciting, but that's what makes money".

The bad thing is:

I again can't do it correctly, but I'm trying with all my forces.

Stating what's good and what's bad, what's beautiful and what's ugly is the act of labeling or judging.

Judging can interfere with going with the flow, and with trading.

Assigning Labels Requires Judgment

Do-de-do-de-do, wo-Wah-wah:

Ground Rule #1

for Staying in the Garden of Eden:

Don't Eat the Judgment Fruit

"Do not partake

of the the fruit from the tree

of the knowledge of good and evil."

-- Rules of the Garden

Clips:

http://images.amazon.com/images/

P/6304698798.01.LZZZZZZZ.jpg

http://www.morgenster.org/

quizuk/vraag1.htm

http://polyfoniske-ringetoner.dk/dk/Good

Fri, 09 Jan 2004

Workshop in Europe

Ed

Do you plan to hold a workshop in Europe sometime?

I am getting some inquiries for a Workshop in Europe, maybe around mid-year.

March Euro

November 6, 2003 - January 9, 2004

Sometimes trends happen.

Fri, 9 Jan 2004

Software

Dear Ed, I am not sure if this is something you feel appropriate to publish on your website but if you do then feel free to do so.

I have finally made a decision not to go with any third-party software for any longer. [I am]unwilling to throw money away on something that might prove not of good use to me).

So, I am building a testing platform “entirely” in C++, right as we speak. I know that it is going to take me up some time, 3 months for this iteration at least, but I am going to do it as I am strongly commitment and dedicated human being.

Let me explain what my problem is, I ordered and received a CD from [Name] (a data provider) and was wondering what adjusting mechanism you use and if it is reasonable for me to use

-- a de-trending mechanism for commodities i.e. energies, metals, soft’s given that they can go negative over time.


-- and another adjusting mechanism (where no de-trending is used) for the rest of the markets i.e. currencies, notes and bonds where the likelihood of them going negative is somewhat reduced

With regards to my financial situation and my ability to endure drawdown without being physiologically effected, I can say that I hold a day job, paying north of $1e5 per year (a reasonable good wage so to speak), intend to keep it, and that I am very much eager to trade a diversified portfolio of futures markets “only” with the objective of taking no more then 30 to 35% in drawdown per year at the most. Having said that, I think either Turtle or some sort of volatility trend/counter-trend breakout system (current systems I am looking at) would fit the bill.

Please give me some suggestion as to the direction of the software design/coding I should head into, as I think you have more experience in developing software then I do. Please note that I am not looking for specific system parameters or anything along those lines.

Again, thank you very much for your generosity and time.

Kind Regards,

FAQ does not provide reasons or tell people what they should do. See ground rules.

I don't know how to enter a trade for a de-trend instrument, or a negative-price instrument.

Negative futures prices indicate you may be splicing deliveries in a way that integrates the carrying charge differentials.

Since you are writing your own code, you might consider modeling real life - say, close out your positions as they mature and enter new positions in the deferred instruments.

Fri, 9 Jan 2004

Pain Healing

Dear Ed,

With reference to my post of 6 Jan and your reply; thank you for the clarification.

You say "TTP intends to associate Fred and CM in a dialog about feelings, in an Intentional Community or Tribe setting."

How do you define "dialog"?

Kind regards,

A definition for Dialog, Dialogue:

In Music, a passage for two or more parts, suggesting conversation. (Dia = 2; Log = Word)

The definition of dialog is likely less important to TTP than willingness to engage the process and find out how connecting Fred and CM works.

Lester Flatt & Earl Scruggs

Masters of The Art

of Musical Conversation

The breakdown, in bluegrass music,

is a custom in which musicians

take turns playing the lead

and listening to each other.

Mountain Dew:

Clip: http://www.bobdylanroots.com/

scruggs.html

Midi: http://www.terrilynnesworld.com/

Bluegrass.html

Fri, 09 Jan 2004

Cyprus Trading Tribe

Ed

Welcome Cyprus!

See Tribe Directory.

Cyprus

Clip: http://www.e-grammes.gr/

Thu, 8 Jan 2004

Prefers DIM to TTP

Ed Says: Listening to others may do more to change their opinions than arguing with them.

You might take your feelings of wanting to change and control people into the process.


My problem is that I try to listen to someone who doesn't talk. Or at least I expect her to talk, to express her feelings. I have indeed many expectations of her that never come true.

I am supposedly a long term trader. At least I wish to be. All I need is a trend, a clear long term trend. Yet I often find myself squinting a chart and five indicators, in a day-to-day basis, looking for one.

You seem to like to write to FAQ, again and again, describing this and that drama.

FAQ does not deliver advice on what you should do - nor wish to enroll as an advisor in your "help me" drama, nor enable your DIM process.

Your mission, should you choose to accept it, is to take the feeling that propels you to ask for advice, into the process.

Click for Musical Inspiration: