Ed Seykota, 2003 - 2009 ... Write for permission to reprint.

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EcoNowMics

A Series of EcoNowMics Articles and Models

from pouring milk - to managing the economy

 

(c) 2009 by Ed Seykota

 

EcoNowMics FAQ

Fisher Black Model

 

Subject

Links

We Live Within Feedback Systems

 

Have an interactive experience with feedback.

The Milk Glass - Video Game

We Know the World Through Our Models

Here's how to build simple models.

Building a Mental Model

Building an Excel Model

Building a Model in iThink

The Cause and Effect Model is Confusing, Misleading and Primarily Manipulative.

Here's what the Wizards of Cause are hiding behind the curtain.

Cause-and-Effect

How We Follow Our Targets

Get some practice moving towards goals - and in understanding the dynamics.

 

The Tracker - Video Game

The Hole-In-The-Bucket Model

Delays, Averages, Smoothers and Trackers

Here's how smoothing, averaging, tracking, and controlling Work. They all have the same structure and behavior as the Delay. Moving average systems necessarily don't detect trend change at the top or bottom.

The Ways of Delays

Capital, Consumption and Growth

The magic of capital is in making it grow.

 

This model examines the dynamics of capital accumulation - and the critical role of the capital re-investment fraction.

 

Among the demonstrations: the best way for a government to increase long-term tax revenues is to lower the percentage tax rate.

 

Capital, Consumption and Growth

Growth

Positive Feedback excites growth. This paper explores the nature of growth and its limits.

 

We also find out that bank accounts that compound interest may not be a sure thing after all.

 

Going for Growth

System Behavior Summary Review system behaviors of simple first order systems and develop an intuitive feel for system structure.

Simple System Behavior Summary

The Effects of Delay

Look at how a second order negative feedback system works and get insight into the nature of oscillations.

 

Good Vibrations - Modeling the Pendulum

The Nature of Price

Inventory and Coverage

Wedges and Breakouts

Business Cycles 1

Inventory Cycle

Business Cycles 2

The K-Wave Capital Cycle

Immunity

Developing "Awareness"

Parasites and Hosts

The Virus Model

Money Supply and Credit

The Debt Model

Policy Formation

Model of Stimulus Package

Model of the Clunker Program

Model of Minimum Wage

The Nature of Governance

The Freedom Index

Tinkering

Fixing and Willingness