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Aug 19, 2017

Some Doubts Here

Dear Ed,

an unpleasant question maybe.

I studied form my master on Theory of system and corporte forecasting in 1995 to a simple level Jay Forrester and his theory of systems.

Is it true that Aureliano Peccei of famous club of rome, engaged prof Forrester for her Theory of limits of development of 1972 ?

That forecast was not too early, not linked to Kondratiev cycles and used for political purposes does assimilation of free private sector is not a forecast but a manual of instruction of leaders ?

I have some doubts here.

thanks
Grazie per aver mandato la tua richiesta.
Non capisco il tuo inglese. Per favore ri-invia in italiano - o in inglese dopo aver ricevuto aiuto con la traduzione.

- - - - -

Thank you for sending me your inquiry.
I do not understand your English.  Please re-send it in Italian - or in English after you get some help with translation.


Aug 19, 2017

Giving Govopoly to Son

Hi Ed -

I guess I'm late in saying this, but HAPPY BIRTHDAY!  This guy sings better than I do....  Enjoy.

www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y-ZB-8MfyE8

I think you got another year younger, judging by the date for August's FAQ page ..... (2016)

Reading and enjoying Govopoly for the 2nd time - before passing it along to my son.

All the best,
Thank you for the heads up on the date, for remembering my birthday, for sending me the song by Mr. Rogers and for telling me you plan to give Govopoly to your son.
Aug 19, 2017

Tops, Bottoms and Sides

Hi Mr. Seykota,

In the Specific Indicators post (July 10, 2017)  you mentioned that, "If you like looking at tops and bottoms, go to a swimsuit-optional beach.  If you want to trade trends, look for sides."

Does "look for sides" mean evaluating the probabilities of the up and down direction of an instrument's price at a particular moment?

Or does it simply mean getting the middle of the trend and ignoring the top and bottom?

Thanks for your clarification,
Thank you for raising this issue.

I don't know what you mean by "evaluating probabilities."  Perhaps you can send me an example of a probability with its associating evaluation.

The points, top and a bottom, occur instantaneously and have no trend; you can see them only in retrospect.

Sides have length and lie between tops and bottoms; they run for a while and have trends; you can see them as they occur.

Trend followers exploit sides; people wishing to act out feelings such as frustration, sadness and anger exploit tops and bottoms.

You might consider taking your feelings about <wanting to trade tops and bottoms> to Tribe as entry points.
Aug 18, 2017

Workshop in Europe

Hi Chief,

I remain interested in attending a TTP Workshop in Europe, ideally in the Netherlands.

In case you decide to hold a Workshop in the Netherlands, I would be glad to help you with the logistics of finding a suitable location, catering and other necessary arrangements.
Thank you for extending your offer to me.
Aug 15, 2017

Live Forever

Hi Ed,

My friend recommends me to read this book. “Fantastic Voyage - Live Long Enough to Live Forever”.

I just skimmed couple pages and am already amazed by the idea of the book. The idea is that we are at verge of revolution in Biology and Nanotechnologies. New technology like nano probes, organ regeneration etc are at horizon of reality.

If we manage to live healthier and live  20 more years longer, the technologies progress in the 20 years might gain us another 30 years. And the technologies in the extra 30 years might give us another 30 years too.

From bridge to bridge, we might reach nearly immortality.

I feel exited about this. I hope I can catch the ride, I wish you also can hold the position long enough to enjoy the trend.

Have a nice day!
Thank you for raising this issue.

You might like to consider what type of world we might have with people living forever.

For example, such a society might generate interminable dynasties, inhibit the introduction of new technologies that threaten the powerful and seek equilibrium as stagnant, senile, repressive society.

You might consider taking your feelings about <living fully in the now> to Tribe as an entry point.
Aug 15, 2017

Longer-Term Chart

Hey Ed,

Thanks for the link (extending my 10-year chart backward to 1870 - showing the 10-year low as a small correction). Picking bottoms woulda just resulted in stinky fingers! ;)

I better be careful about looking for reasons for myself and my investors. Certainly, a good entry point.

I greatly appreciate your support.
Thank you for acknowledging the charts.

In a Free-Competition economy, equity and other measures of standard of living keep rising while prices fall.

Under a Govopoly System, the opposite prevails.

http://caps.fool.com/Blogs/cycles-
of-commodities-vs-/555700

Aug 15, 2017

Portland Tribe Update

Hi Ed,

Just a quick update on our one year old Portland Tribe. 

With two new members recently joined we are now at six.  One of our new members has been to a Workshop and Breathwork in addition to having participated in another Tribe for a number of
years. 

His leadership marks a turning point for us, our most recent meeting two weeks ago was noticeably effective with three of us in turn taking the hot seat.

Speaking of feelings manifesting themselves as forms, I noticed this a few days ago while reading A Joseph Campbell Companion that John Sterinbeck would like to go about rubbing his sides.
Thank you for sharing your process.
Aug 9, 2017

Thoughts on Stocks

Hi, keen to know your thoughts on Indian pharma / health care stocks ... largely generics which seem to be in a bear or is the bull market correction coming to an end. Tea the world's largest generic company has also had a major sell off
Thank you for raising this issue.

I don't think about stocks very much.  I mostly look at stock price charts and sort them on strength.

For example, see TT Chartbook, at Resources, above.
Aug 9, 2017

How Many Markets to Trade

Hi Ed,

I hope you're having a nice summer.

Since I've began trading in 2011, I've thought a lot about how to go about selecting markets to trade. Nowadays, we have an abundance of markets and a lot of overlap in many sectors where correlation is seemingly always high. I think this a huge advantage that many traders don't take advantage of.

Today we have numerous U.S. stock markets, government bonds, a handful of different wheats, a dozen European bonds and rates, a handful of energy markets (WTI, Brent, Gas Oil, Kerosene - they're pretty much all the same!), etc.

I wonder if I can trade less markets while not giving up any material diversification. For example, when wheat markets break out a few weeks ago, instead of taking the long signal in the most liquid CME Wheat, why not observe all available "wheat" markets (milling wheat, hard red, spring wheat, etc) and go long the strongest one? By doing this, I can still maintain my "wheat" exposure but get in the strongest trending form - at least at the time.

I'm not sure if you've ever thought about this, but I thought I'd share my brainstorming with you since you've been kind enough to help me over the years.

Thanks.
Thank you for raising this issue.

You make the most money by putting everything you have on the very best instrument, right before it goes up.

For example, you buy a bitcoin for $0.001 and then see it go to $3,000.  That gives you a 3,000,000:1 gain. So far, $10,000 gets you $30 Billion.

Of course, to work this trick, you have to know what to buy and when to buy it.  If, for example, you buy bitcoin a couple years ago on margin at $1,000, you lose your stake on the way down to $300.

You can also use a system that selects a portfolio of trending instruments and also manages risk.  This generally makes less than 3,000,000:1 and also generally survives during volatile markets.

You might consider back testing various methods to find out which ones fit you.
Aug 7, 2017

Birthday Wishes

Hi Ed,

I hope this email finds you and your family well. Are you in Texas, Puerto Rico or elsewhere in the world?

I'm currently in London and enjoying it very much. All well business and health wise as I hope is with you.

I know I say this every year, however words still can not properly express my gratitude to you for the kindness and generosity you should me so many years ago - it's why I'm able to live the life I do. Thank you so very much.

Warm regards,

Thank you for remembering me on my birthday and for extending kind thoughts.

I also thank many other people for writing in to FAQ to help me celebrate my 71-st one.

Rather than reprint all of them here on FAQ, I plan to send individual notes.
Aug 7, 2017

Before He Trades - Carrie Underwood Parody

Ed,

You might like this video:

http://youtu.be/wU1pD4xPe2M
Thank you for sending me the link to the video.
Aug 6, 2017

Compelling and Disturbing - Relay from Mike Covel

Michael,

I am a regular listener to your podcasts. I appreciate the wide variety of incredible guests and the disparate and yet relevant topics that they discuss. I'm impressed by your ability to ask "that" question that the guest responds "no one has ever asked me that before." It's recognizable that you must do a lot of research prior to each interview. 

One such compelling and yet disturbing interview was with Ed Seykota, podcast #355. Among other things, you discussed some major topics from his book Govopoly. His statement that things, politics/the economy/government/society, are the way they are supposed to be and that there is nothing to be done about them ran counter to my world view. I was shaken by his statement that "I don't think there is anything to fix." I'm a person that believes when you realize things have strayed from the correct path you fight to bring them back in line. I guess the real question is what is the correct path. 

I shared the podcast with a close friend who I enjoy debating topics like these with. His response was basically that he assumed the game was over long ago and he was resigned to his fate. Again this ran counter to my belief system. 

Over two years after listening to you and Ed, I was listening to "The Death of Money," a book by another of your podcast's alumni, Jim Rickards. About halfway through the book Jim discusses the Federal Reserve. I know that there are varying opinions on the FED and I didn't have very much knowledge on the subject so I decided to finally breakdown and listen to "The Creature from Jekyll Island." Holy shit! I only made it through 3 chapters before I felt compelled to listen to the Ed Seykota interview again.

I'm not naïve when it comes to my understanding of how things work in America but even if a small portion of what is said in "… Jekyll Island" is true I now understand where Ed is coming from. The mechanism is too big, too entrenched, and too interwoven into the fabric of our government and society to be fought to any meaningful affect. 

I just thought I would share this bit of circular podcast listening with you. I believed you would appreciate my "oh s--t" aka aha moment concerning our society. 

Any thoughts? 

Have you done an interview with G. Edward Griffin? It may be interesting to hear what he has to say on the Trump era. 

Thanks again for your truly insightful podcasts.
Thank you for considering the thesis I present in my book, Govopoly.

I hold that the Govopoly System intends to Assimilate the Free-Competition Sector and then, eventually, to perish with its host.

For a current example, see Venezuela.

I hold politics as, largely, theater for the masses and participation in politics as mostly pointless drama.

I also hold that you have phenomenal opportunities to actualize your life on a local level.

For more on this, see my other book, The Trading Tribe.


Aug 4, 2017

39th Day and Beyond

Dear Ed,

I read with a lot of interest your book about 39th day exp function.

I world like to know what happen next. In 40/41 day system explode. What curve follow it? Another inverted exp function and how many periods last? Same 40?

Then is there a Tribe in Italy?
Thank you for raising this issue.

My book, Govopoly, presents a model that explains many syptoms of the currently evolving economic situation.

The model shows how the Govopoly System Assimilates the Free-Competition Sector - putting the entire system into decline and, ultimately, chaos.  I do not provide a definite schedule of events.

For a current example of Assimilation, see Venezuela.

You may check the Tribe Directory for a Tribe near you - and you may also start one of your own.
Aug 4, 2017

Economics and Astrology

Dear Chief Ed,

I recall your comment in the context of trends '... the math doesn't work .. '

Sincerely,

- - - - -

https://aeon.co/essays/how-economists-
rode-maths-to-become-our-era-s-astrologers



...The notion that an entire culture – not just a few eccentric financiers – could be bewitched by empty, extravagant theories might seem absurd. How could all those people, all that math, be mistaken...

Thank you for sending me the link.

In my book, Govopoly, I hold that Economists generally find employment in the Govopoly System and, as such, tend to support Assimilation.
Aug 2, 2017

TT Chartbook

Hi Ed:

Your site is usually updated by now (11:46 PM).  Just letting you know it is still showing August 1st data.

Thanks,
Thank you for reporting the situation.

Upon examining the machine that generates and posts the charts, I find that MS One Drive tends to interfere with the process. 

I replace with Google Drive and now the process runs more smoothly.
Aug 2, 2017

Direct Contact

Hi Ed,

A couple of days ago I have a dream which I don't think is a dream but something I call soul communication where the soul directly contacts source.

Anyways I have this knowing that my soul will go to this soul gate and that I don't know whether it leads to heaven or hell. And I sit there and I feel the feeling and my life flashes before me and this thought comes and goes that it doesn't really matter if I go to heaven or hell because it will not change the way I would lead my life. That I will still do good and help other and lead my life the way I see fit. And this feeling of bliss and complete oneness and understand comes over me.

And then I get back to my normal mode. And I start to get worried again and research and analyze this soul gate except there is not much information on it on the web ... Only among the locals.

I wonder if you can help me get back to that state of being.

Thanks for reading,
Thank you for sharing your process.

You might consider taking your feelings about <wanting to get back to that state> to Tribe as an entry point.
Aug 1, 2017

Single Market

Howdy,

I'm a complete novice when it comes to trading and I'm taking a deep dive reading about strategies, following trends, etc. my biggest issue is I think I lack the intuition which comes with experience. Do you reckon I should stick to a single market to begin? Or do you think market is not relevant to the process of following price and volatility?

Appreciate all of your brilliant work, would love to meet you one day.
Thank you for raising this issue.

Trading multiple markets affords various advantages; you can use diversification to manage risk and you have a better chance of catching a trend.

The fastest way to make money: go all on one thing in at the start of a huge trend. The fastest way to go broke: go all in on one thing at the start of a huge trend.
Aug 1, 2017

Loneliness

Hi Ed,

Recently everybody around me try to make me feel lonely.

What are the positive intentions of loneliness?

When somebody offers you a hug, does this actually interfere with fully experiencing loneliness?

Is experiencing loneliness part of the path to grow in life?
Thank you for raising this issue.

Loneliness generally motivates a search for companionship.

If you have a judgment about loneliness or otherwise suppress it, you may hesitate to form relationships - and wind up even more alone.

Experiencing loneliness, and engaging its positive intention can bring you a satisfying social life.

You might consider taking your feelings about <loneliness> to Tribe.
Aug 1, 2017

In and Out

Hi Ed,

Do you think exits are more important than entry in trading? 
Thank you for raising this issue.

They have about the same relative importance as breathing in and breathing out.
Aug 1, 2017

Wants Interview

Dear Mr. Seykota,

I am currently a student at [City] University and I'm writing a research paper for my MBA program on systematic trading, specifically trend following. Would you have time to meet to be interviewed? I will be in Texas later this year and it would be much appreciated. I find this topic fascinating and would love to learn more. Thank you and I look forward to speaking with you.

All the best,
Thank you for offering to interview me.

You may send a list of your questions to me, here, at FAQ.
Aug 01, 2017

Brain Chemistry of Addiction

Ed,

You might like to see this video that claims similar brain chemistry behind all forms of addiction.
Thank you for sharing the video.
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