|Mar 31, 2016
Disregard Wanting Relationship Help
Please disregard my previous emails.
|Thank you for sharing your process.
have some problems with risk - reward. I use trend following method (in
medium term: weeks- months) based on breakouts something like "Turtles"
did with little changes for example: different pyramiding: risk for
every trade is 1% - 0,5% -0,25% (of account) with trailing stop based
on ATR to block total risk at last pyramid.
Open and close
trades on breakouts. That gave me total risk in one market about 1,35%.
I trade on 5-7 different commodities and stocks. I pick markets by its
strength (long and short). In past i was building pyramid like this
2%-2%-2%-2% with total rist on one market =5%.
When I use it on 7 markets my portfolio risk is 5% * 7 = 35%. With
standard trend following accuracy 30-35% it is suicidal.
target is CAGR > 20%. To make sure that my method is ok I made
portfolio back testing for stocks in [software] but it is not clear
because of data (gaps, etc.).
I bought some data for continuous contracts and it look ok. But I have
medium trust in my testing program - I mean I don't have enough confidence
to bet money on it.
Dennis gave his "Turtles" essential confidence to pull trigger on every
sign of his method and they made a lot of money with pyramiding
2%-2%-2%-2%. I'm concerned about different behavior of markets now and
20-30 years ago. Maybe you can give me some tips to make my trading less stressful and more profitable?
I have no problem with drawdowns to about 40-60%. It happened to me
several times. I only need
some confidence to use this method or tips to fix it.
Maybe it is necessary to change it or make it more adaptive to current
read many books about trading especially about trend following and feel
it. I know the rules of FAQ but maybe you can guide me in my process?
I'm from [Country] and my English is average but we can write emails.
Thank you for being worldwide trading helpdesk ;-)
you for raising this issue.
has to do with trust in yourself and in your system and in the markets
to continue behaving similarly. Stress has to do with how you process
your perception of your situation. These both have something to do with
your system and quite a lot to do with your internal psychology.
might consider taking your feelings about <confidence>
<stress> to Tribe as entry points to your psychological
note a target CAGR (Compounding Annual Growth Rate) of 20%.
might consider how you might feel (stress and confidence) with a target
CAGR of 2% or 200%.
You might also consider abandoning the
idea of a target CAGR - and design your system around your risk
tolerance - and then see what kind of theoretical returns you get.
I would like help with communication and specifically the feedback loop
that happens in my intimate relationship.
we have a conversation with and the connection feels good. I feel warm
gearted and open. At one point, I remember a voice in my head and I get
scared, at the same time I feel that the conversation turns from being
open and honest sharing of thoughts and feelings to closed and control
centric. I can pinpoint the exact point in the conversation that this
I would like help with keeping communication open in a positive
feedback loop. And stay intimacy centric.
would like your support for finding and living my right livelihood,
marrying my GF, and finding a Tribe in which we can belong together.
And I would like a Heart Rock.
I cant seem to navigate my relationship from the inside and I would
like your help to mediate.
about my life in general, I have boughts of crying at random moments by
myself. I feel my throat swell up. I have tears down my face. I dont
know if I will ever get through this. I dont know whats on the other
side of this feeling. I scrunch ky eyebrows together and my lips frown
while tears drop down the side of my face.
I dont know what to do and where to go. I dont know what the right
thing to do is.
Thanks for reading,
you for raising these issues.
As I recall, you do not show much willingness to engage TTP or the
You might consider hiring a personal therapist with a specialty in
If you wish to continue with me here on FAQ, read The Science of Trust
by Gottman and send me a book report.
Idea on the
TT Process -
Therapy as Avoidance
I have a thought when we talk about your recent process on yourself at
the dinner... That idea suddenly comes to me and I initially feel it’s
a joking idea. I feel I want to say it but I hold it off.
You were saying members doing one process after another and not showing
real personality breakout, and seems to be in a loop. It also
happens to myself. I agree with you that the strong willingness to
change will eventually bring one out of it, by a seeming lucky
factor(in your case, a caring person). I get to understand that you are
considering how to codify such seemly random lucky element
and make it a consistent process which can repeat the result. I am
looking forward to your new invention.
Then a thought comes to me and now It bothers me if I don’t share it
with you. There’s a similar situation. I see that sometimes the endless
running from one process to another process might be serving some other
need. Like using TTP / therapy itself to avoid / delay a real issue? It
happens too in my Tribe before. Members seem to report and work on
irrelevant issues to keep them busy so to avoid working on the real
issue they dread.
I feel I want to see you to have a wife. You helped so many people
including me to get intimate relationship, and you leave yourself
behind. I’m feeling a square block sticking in my chest. I actually was
imagining how about you just pick [someone], and get married,
NOW? you might not need so many processes to get you ready for a
Or you might not need any processes at all? The Tribe might be able to
help you on issues, after you are already in marriage? Or your wife
might kick us out of you house and that’s the end of Trading Tribe? A
happy ending, though. |-)
My head starts to spin after I leave your house. I don’t know if this
makes any sense to you and it’s just my 2 cents.
you for sharing your process and observations.
have a notion I would like to test; namely, for the Rocks Process, to
implement new rocks for the client in all the roles that show up for
anyone in the role play.
For example, if the client
presents as Victim, then he normally gets a Heart Rock as the Victim -
that helps him mitigate this role.
The victim, however,
typically may have modes as Perpetrator or Savior
which we might complete a full suite of Rocks Processes.
Please help me.
you for reaching out to me.
Thank you for your support with my workshop follow up. My thanks to
those who provide such useful comments and feedback.
I commit to "work hard on my trading systems for three hours a day: See
what feelings come up. Report ... to my support team and FAQ." This
starts from Ed's comment at the workshop - approximately "Are you
actually serious about trading?"
I work to complete my testing with good results from the roll-forward
testing . Once complete I order data for the 4.5 years I do not
previously have data for and rerun my testing.
The results are quite poor with a small profit only for the 4 years and
an unsatisfactory Sharpe Ratio and other metrics of risk-adjusted
return. Looking around I see many - but not all - futures strategies
have performed relatively poorly over this time.
For example the Trend Following Wizards Reports show for top
Annualized nominal compound 4.4% Sharpe 0.37
So my experience is not unusual.
I then add a semi-fundamental overlay (from a book by Ernie Chan) which
increases profits and risk adjusted profits on the original data and
makes the recent 4.5 years satisfactorily profitable. Of course this
change renders the 'out of sample test" no longer "out of sample". So I
feel some doubt that it truly has an expected profit from here.
The risk adjusted profitability of the recent 4.5 years disappears when
I run the test with less than $1m USD. This exceeds the maximum that I
want to put into futures trading.
I spend a couple of weeks thinking about the situation before deciding
to terminate the project. I don't feel too bad about this. I know
people who started trading without doing the homework and had to go
back to working 9-5. So I feel glad I did the work before launching
into trading but I know it took far too long. But I do feel that I have
failed in some senses.
I start work on a new system for trading stocks a few weeks ago.
Perhaps this offers more possibilities as I have more and more varied
kinds of data to work with and the contract size problem does not exist
I have been trading Index ETFs with a timing model for some years with
Getting back to the original question - am I serious about trading? At
one level yes because I put in a lot of work and followed through to
completion. In another way no because I have not found a way for me to
trade futures sufficiently profitably.
In other news: My reformed tribe meets for the first time on Monday. My
health remains stable. My productivity improves at a good pace. I lose
Thanks again everyone for their support. I have learned a great deal
from the project and I think I have grown a lot too.
you for sharing your process.
have a good Easter with your family !
you for sending me your wishes.
Thank you for spending time with me. It's a wonderful experience with
you this weekend. I really love the bluegrass.
moment with you is always priceless. I'm happy to feel that something
in you is different. I also feel that I have some
significant growth in myself, from the influence of your sparkling
wisdom and personality.
I like the way you pat my head when you hug me goodbye. I feel it's
from a loving elder. I feel I conclude a process and feel tears in my
Have a great rest of the weekend and quick recovery!
Showing two of the three
you for visiting me and for sharing your process, observations and
Good afternoon Sir
Just checking in to report ROR for 2016 and 2015 (annualised)
2016 ROR 66.61%, std 6.89% and i-ratio 8.77
Mar 18.79% (incl. of 24 Mar 2016 PnL)
2015 ROR 60.40%, std 8.55% and i-ratio 6.70
Thank you for your insight
you for sharing your numbers.
The title is In this Cafe, everyone has a story.
I realize, on your FAQ, everyone has a story.
And guidance from your side.
you for sharing your observations.
Just remembered you. No particular reason. Food memories of your
guidance of I = R.
Hugs from a far away place.
you for reaching out to me.
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